Why Are HOT Lanes Struggling to Make Money?

[cpzilliacus]

Atlantic Cities: Why Are HOT Lanes Struggling to Make Money?

If you're a commuter in one of the increasing number of major metro areas that have implemented HOT lanes – express tolls for single-occupancy vehicles – you might already know how effective they can be for bypassing traffic. But these lanes were also promised to the public as a new road funding mechanism, pitched as a way to pay for long-delayed road maintenance or big public projects. In that regard, you might say that so far HOT lanes have come up rather cold.

The poor revenue performance of express tolls, while perhaps not universal, has certainly formed a disturbing trend. According to news reports, Virginia's new HOT lanes on Washington, D.C.'s Beltway lost $11.3 million in their first six weeks, Houston's I-45 and U.S. 59 express lanes haven't covered their costs, and Atlanta's I-85 tolls fell short of the lowest fiscal forecasts. The most egregious offender may be SR-167 in metro Seattle, whose actual earnings fall consistently and astonishingly below revenue expectations:

[jeffandnicole]

I don't think it's a lack of making money, but rather a very misleading forecast of how much money these roads can bring it.  Just eyeballing the revenue projections, it appears the projects are based on that the road will be used at nearly peak capacity (while still maintaining the speed limit) all day long, 7 days a week.  Except for the always congested roadways of LA and a highway here and there, there isn't a highway around that runs at capacity all day long. 

[Perfxion]

The problem is the exits. I-45 for example, northbound has 5 exits, there are about 20 exits in its span on the mainlines. Thus a major doubling back or exiting extremely early and roundabout on the feeder roads to get off your exit. Then it doesn't even go long enough to bypass all traffic. Further more, its only a single lane open during its rush hours peak times. Most of the day and on weekends, its closed. So even more useless. Its not like the Katy HOT/HOV lanes where you have 2 lanes open 24/7. What money were they expecting? If people were going northbound and wanting to skip I-45 traffic, they take the Hardy toll road and not worry about the mess.

[Chris]

Several large HOT / express contracts were signed in or before 2007, when the economy was still in full bloom. Right now they don't meet their forecasted traffic and revenue. The concept also only works if there is prolonged severe congestion in the mainline lanes. Many areas have less congestion due to the weak economy.

In addition, these tolls are relatively high, too high for most people to use these lanes on a daily basis. Also, many HOT lanes have only one lane, which means you pay a premium while having a high chance of getting stuck behind a slowpoke.

Many HOV lanes are underperforming in terms of vehicles per hour. Only a few HOV facilities approach the number of vehicles of general purpose lanes and congestion in HOV lanes are no good indicator of how good they are actually used (congestion is often caused by adjacent slow or stationary traffic in the other lanes). Additionally, HOV lanes have little flexibility when a moving queue builds up, you can't change a lane to bypass some slower traffic, which may cause slowdowns while not approaching maximum capacity. Many HOV lanes do not exceed 1,200 vehicles per hour (which is approximately 50% less than GP lanes at maximum capacity).

So many DOTs like to get on the HOT train and turn HOV into HOT lanes for a little extra revenue and alleged improvements in traffic flow. I think it's a matter of time until most HOV lanes are HOT lanes while remaining free for HOV2+ or HOV3+. The technology is there and relatively cheap to implement, unlike traditional toll roads with large toll plazas. I've read the NTTA has a operational cost of open road tolling of only 3%. (Some European electronic truck toll systems have operational costs of up to 40-50% of revenue).

[jjakucyk]

Many HOV lanes are underperforming in terms of vehicles per hour. Only a few HOV facilities approach the number of vehicles of general purpose lanes and congestion in HOV lanes are no good indicator of how good they are actually used (congestion is often caused by adjacent slow or stationary traffic in the other lanes). Additionally, HOV lanes have little flexibility when a moving queue builds up, you can't change a lane to bypass some slower traffic, which may cause slowdowns while not approaching maximum capacity. Many HOV lanes do not exceed 1,200 vehicles per hour (which is approximately 50% less than GP lanes at maximum capacity).

But isn't that kind of the point?  If they carried the same number of vehicles per hour then they'd be just as congested as the mainline lanes, and then nobody would use them.  However, if there's twice as many people per vehicle than normal (which would work out to about 2.5 or so), then even if a HOT/HOV lane is carrying only half as many vehicles per hour it's still moving just as many people as a standard lane.