Coronavirus pandemic

[CoreySamson]

I'm just going to leave this here:

I must start out by saying that originally I thought a possible second wave would not happen at all, but the events of the past week changed that for me. Now I'm thinking a second wave is all but assured.

With all these protests going around I'm betting we're going to see a large increase in cases in the big cities where covid was dying out. . .

If that stupid police officer had not murdered Floyd, I'd bet covid would be inconsequential by July. Since he did, I'm predicting covid will stick around for at least until September.

The states that didn't take this pandemic seriously at the beginning are getting hit hard now. These are mostly states where people spent a lot of time outdoors in the nice March/April/May weather, and are now indoors in the A/C breathing re-circulated (and in some cases, COVID-filled) air.

Of course hospitalizations/deaths are increasing much more slowly in the South now than they were in NYC in April. But please, that's not an accomplishment: We're 4-1/2 months in to this thing! Old people are being quite cautious for the most part, there's preventative measures like mask wearing and social distancing, there's less travel, we know more about the virus, etc., etc., etc.

Call the response in Southern states bungled if you wish - it has been less than stellar, and it is truly wild that mask debates are still raging - but I think a big increase in cases in the South in these hot summer months was basically inevitable.

I completely agree with your statement an increase in cases in the South in the summer was inevitable; the fact that everyone is inside to get out of the heat only makes things worse.

I also think it doesn't really matter whether your state had a good response to Covid or not; I think every single place is going to get it sooner or later. My county had a great initial response, only about 100 cases per week in April and May, but now we've got almost 200 cases per day right now.

[tradephoric]

There is a real life story of the Tortoise and the Hare taking place (California is the Tortoise and New York is the Hare).

Quick question: what website are you getting these graphs from?

Worldometer and Daily State-by-State Testing Trends from Johns Hopkins.

[tradephoric]

Daily deaths in NYC have declined by 98% since its peak in April (going from 597 daily deaths on April 7th to single digit deaths today).  NYC enters phase 4 of their reopening on Monday and it's refreshing that the largest city in the country can get back to living.

[Rothman]

...until they can't because of infected people coming into NY from the states on the restriction list.

[tradephoric]

Neighborhoods in Queens are finding that up to 68% of people are testing positive for anti-bodies.  Hopefully communities in NYC have gained a level of herd immunity that will protect its citizenry from a "second wave".

[Duke87]

Neighborhoods in Queens are finding that up to 68% of people are testing positive for anti-bodies.  Hopefully communities in NYC have gained a level of herd immunity that will protect its citizenry from a "second wave".

So, devil in the details: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

There was a medical clinic in Corona (yes, that's the name of the neighborhood) where 68% of people who walked in and requested an antibody test got a positive result from it. This is the results from people asking for tests, not a random sample - so no you can't say 68% of the neighborhood's population has antibodies. The number is almost certainly lower this, since people going to the clinic asking for tests are going to be people who have some reason to suspect they may have had it.

It's also only one clinic in one neighborhood. The numbers elsewhere are not as high.

NYC certainly has taken a pretty big bite out of things - more randomized testing back at the end of April suggested over 20% of the city's population may have been infected. This is substantial enough to slow down transmission, but not to prevent it from being able to take off again if people aren't careful.

[Scott5114]

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...

[wolfiefrick]

b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it

What the fuck does this mean?

It means exactly what it says.

Flattening the curve was never about reducing the total number of cases; it was about spreading them out over time. This virus is unprecedented and extremely transmissible, much more so than other coronaviruses (influenza, the common cold, etc.).

The medical community has recognized for months at this point that a certain percentage of the population is just going to be infected no matter what, and the evidence that government action can reduce that percentage is not sound.

[wolfiefrick]

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...

New Zealand didn't lock down for much longer than we did. They just benefit from the fact that they're an island country of 5 million people.

They used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand also saw a total of only 1,154 cases and 22 deaths, but in a country less than one-sixtieth the size of the United States and without separation of powers, it's a lot easier for them to take very swift action.

[Duke87]

An interesting elimination list - the following counties have yet to report a single case:
- Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, AK
- Yakutiat Borough, AK
- Modoc County, CA
- Kiowa County, CO
- Kalawao County, HI
- Butte County, ID
- Rawlins County, KS
- Wallace County, KS
- Wichita County, KS
- Lake of the Woods County, MN
- Carter County, MT
- Daniels County, MT
- McCone County, MT
- Mineral County, MT
- Petroleum County, MT
- Phillips County, MT
- Powder River County, MT
- Powell County, MT
- Judith Basin County, MT
- Arthur County, NE
- Blaine County, NE
- Brown County, NE
- Grant County, NE
- Hayes County, NE
- Keya Paha County, NE
- Logan County, NE
- Loup County, NE
- Perkins County, NE
- Wheeler County, NE
- Esmeralda County, NV
- De Baca County, NM
- Adams County, ND
- Harding County, SD
- Potter County, SD
- King County, TX
- Loving County, TX
- Sterling County, TX
- Daggett County, UT
- Wayne County, UT
- Martinsville City, VA
- Doddridge County, WV

On a map that's these counties:

[Max Rockatansky]

b) whoever is going to get it is going to get it

What the fuck does this mean?

It means exactly what it says.

Flattening the curve was never about reducing the total number of cases; it was about spreading them out over time. This virus is unprecedented and extremely transmissible, much more so than other coronaviruses (influenza, the common cold, etc.).

The medical community has recognized for months at this point that a certain percentage of the population is just going to be infected no matter what, and the evidence that government action can reduce that percentage is not sound.

To that end I don't even recall a major public official even making a statement about stopping the virus.  A lot of people in the general public seem to that is possible when it never really was even with the lockdowns were in full force. 

[Max Rockatansky]

An interesting elimination list - the following counties have yet to report a single case:
- Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, AK
- Yakutiat Borough, AK
- Modoc County, CA
- Kiowa County, CO
- Kalawao County, HI
- Butte County, ID
- Rawlins County, KS
- Wallace County, KS
- Wichita County, KS
- Lake of the Woods County, MN
- Carter County, MT
- Daniels County, MT
- McCone County, MT
- Mineral County, MT
- Petroleum County, MT
- Phillips County, MT
- Powder River County, MT
- Powell County, MT
- Judith Basin County, MT
- Arthur County, NE
- Blaine County, NE
- Brown County, NE
- Grant County, NE
- Hayes County, NE
- Keya Paha County, NE
- Logan County, NE
- Loup County, NE
- Perkins County, NE
- Wheeler County, NE
- Esmeralda County, NV
- De Baca County, NM
- Adams County, ND
- Harding County, SD
- Potter County, SD
- King County, TX
- Loving County, TX
- Sterling County, TX
- Daggett County, UT
- Martinsville City, VA
- Wirt County, WV

On a map that's these counties:

Modoc County is an interesting place being geographically isolated by the Cascades and Great Basin Desert.  Esmeralda County is essentially close to the size of some East Coast states and near devoid of human life.  Goldfield once had a population of about 10,000 but might have recently dipped under 200.  I don't believe there is even an active gas station in Esmeralda County anymore, most stop in Tonopah or Beatty for services. 

[SEWIGuy]

I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report

Congratulations on finding one out of 131,000.

(If anything, again, we're likely undercounting; see reply #5084. Unless there's also something else going around killing thousands more than usual that we haven't identified.)

Did you even bother to read the links within?  Here, I'll make it easy and add it here: https://cbs12.com/news/coronavirus/dozens-of-florida-labs-still-report-only-positive-covid-tests-skewing-positivity-rate

I know of three instances in Kentucky where COVID deaths were improperly listed.

Lincoln County, person died of kidney failure, listed as COVID.

Carter County, person died of cancer, listed as COVID.

(In both of those cases, the families went public to dispute the COVID reports, but AFAIK the state never backed off the claims.)

And in Hopkins County, an infant died of SIDS but was reported as COVID. I haven't been able to follow that case as closely as the other two, as it's on the other end of the state.

Yes.  Message board DOT guy knows causes of death accross his state.  Clearly we should all take your word on this issue.

If anything, deaths from Covid are being undercounted.  Here is an actual statistical analysis:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

"Results:  There were approximately 781 000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122 300 (95% prediction interval, 116 800-127 000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95 235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020. The number of excess all-cause deaths was 28% higher than the official tally of COVID-19—reported deaths during that period. In several states, these deaths occurred before increases in the availability of COVID-19 diagnostic tests and were not counted in official COVID-19 death records. There was substantial variability between states in the difference between official COVID-19 deaths and the estimated burden of excess deaths."

IOW, more people have died than normal in 2020.  That excess is more than have been attributed to Covid. 

[hotdogPi]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

[CNGL-Leudimin]

I'm not surpriseed by Kalawao and Loving counties having not been hit by the coronavirus, as they are the two least populated counties (and in the case of Kalawao it has been isolated for a long time). The real outlier is Wirt County, surprised to see a corona-free county that far East.

[hotdogPi]

It's Doddridge County, not Wirt County. (The graphic above highlights the correct county.)

[SEWIGuy]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous. 

[ftballfan]

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...

New Zealand didn't lock down for much longer than we did. They just benefit from the fact that they're an island country of 5 million people.

They used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand also saw a total of only 1,154 cases and 22 deaths, but in a country less than one-sixtieth the size of the United States and without separation of powers, it's a lot easier for them to take very swift action.

Some other factors that helped NZ:
1. No direct flights to Europe
2. Very few direct flights to the early Asian hot spots
3. Its total population is around 60% of the population of just the five boroughs of New York City

[NWI_Irish96]

Okay, well then what do you suggest? Do you think it would be feasible to lock down the whole fucking country forever until the last case of this virus is snuffed out?

It worked for New Zealand...

New Zealand didn't lock down for much longer than we did. They just benefit from the fact that they're an island country of 5 million people.

They used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand also saw a total of only 1,154 cases and 22 deaths, but in a country less than one-sixtieth the size of the United States and without separation of powers, it's a lot easier for them to take very swift action.

Some other factors that helped NZ:
1. No direct flights to Europe
2. Very few direct flights to the early Asian hot spots
3. Its total population is around 60% of the population of just the five boroughs of New York City

How countries were affected initially had a lot to do with population density and the frequency of international travel to/from the country.

How countries were affected once everybody had a better grasp of how widespread the virus was and how it spread had a lot to do with how effectively the government managed the situation and how effectively the people followed the government's management of the situation.

[J N Winkler]

They used a system comprised of 4 tiers; 1 being the lowest severity and 4 the highest. They moved to tier 3 in April, allowing some non-essential businesses to open and takeout services to operate. They moved to tier 2 in May, which saw more relaxed business regulation, and was around the time some U.S. states reopened.

New Zealand did not actually progress to Level 1 (no restrictions other than mandatory managed quarantine at the border) until after they confirmed active cases had gone down all the way to zero.  Most US states had weaker lockdowns to begin with and moved all the way to full decontrol (de facto if not de jure) while they still had hundreds if not thousands of active cases.

To that end I don't even recall a major public official even making a statement about stopping the virus.  A lot of people in the general public seem to that is possible when it never really was even with the lockdowns were in full force.

I think New Zealand and other countries that successfully enacted full containment define the scope of what was possible.  I do agree that few if any governors would have put their necks in nooses by promising it even within the borders of their own states.  Effective federal coordination would have been required for that to happen, and three years is long enough to form a realistic view of the likelihood of that happening under our current national leadership.

The fundamental reality is that covid-19 obeys an exponential growth law if no control measures are undertaken.  This means that timing is important and full control is achievable at relatively low cost if you start early.  This means no-one in the chain of authority shrugging his or her shoulders and saying "Can't be done" while there are still just a few cases.  The costs only go up from that point, and in addition to direct costs they start to include indirect costs from forgone economic activity, since a minimum-effort lockdown that starts late and ends early will not pull the economy back to 100% output.

[SectorZ]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

[SEWIGuy]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

No one has presented actual evidence otherwise.

[hotdogPi]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.

[SectorZ]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.

So you're saying people with cancer should forego care?

This is what we've come to. Most people with cancer can't help they got cancer. Most people hospitalized with Covid-19 that aren't elderly are not taking care of themselves physically. I am NOT making a choice between someone who was already sick having to forego medical care and someone with Coronavirus. Ever.

SEWIGuy - so you're calling me a liar? I pointed out specifics from personal experience.

[Max Rockatansky]

Any database with at least several thousand entries will have a few errors.

Right.  And then some grab onto those errors as some sort of conspiracy and/or coming to the conclusion that doubt should be placed on the entire enterprise.  It's beyond ridiculous.

Yet you still think people dying from neglected care or lack of treatment due to shutdowns of "non-essential medical care" are purely anecdotal.

They are definitely real, but it's not because everything shut down. Hospitals have limited capacity. Many people with diseases like cancer can live at least a few years, while COVID patients need immediate help. The idea is so that the hospitals focus on COVID, and later (whenever hospitals are no longer at capacity; this already happened in Massachusetts), they can treat the rest.

So you're saying people with cancer should forego care?

This is what we've come to. Most people with cancer can't help they got cancer. Most people hospitalized with Covid-19 that aren't elderly are not taking care of themselves physically. I am NOT making a choice between someone who was already sick having to forego medical care and someone with Coronavirus. Ever.

SEWIGuy - so you're calling me a liar? I pointed out specifics from personal experience.

My Wife's Cousin has pancreatic cancer and has had a lot of treatments deferred in lieu of COVID, it definitely is a real phenomenon.