Coronavirus pandemic

[Max Rockatansky]

Just wondering if anyone else here works in or has a household member who works in a hospital.  My wife is a respiratory therapist and with this being a respiratory virus she's right in the thick of it.  Her hospital typically has 3-5 vented patients at any given time and now has 10-12.  I guarantee you the idiots out protesting stay at home orders don't have close family members working at hospitals.

My wife does and has picked up a bunch of extra shifts.  So far Fresno County hasn't been hit all that hard (I think we passed 300 confirmed cases this week) but she works in a department that isn't involved with care that would directly interact with a COVID patient.  My wife has actually been pushing me to find a remote BLM (like the Diablo or Temblor Ranges) hike that is open so we can get out of the house and away from people. 

[SSOWorld]

Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic. 

[Max Rockatansky]

Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.

[wxfree]

Spelling it as "buku" strikes me as being similar to the way some people think "voila" is spelled "wala."

Not to pile on here, but it's spelled "voilà," with an accent grave.

This reminds me of Naomi on "Mama's Family" mispronounciating the word.  She unveiled something, I think a food item, and excitedly said "viola!"

[Duke87]

Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

I would not interpret this as Delta wagering it will be October before people are allowed to fly places again. Rather, I would interpret it as a move by Delta to get people comfortable with booking trips for the summer who otherwise would not for fear of losing money if they have to cancel them.

[mgk920]

It's fast getting to the point with me that "Life itself is a risk, so let's go back to living it".



Mike

[Roadgeekteen]

It's fast getting to the point with me that "Life itself is a risk, so let's go back to living it".



Mike

Well we can't social distance forever.

[webny99]

Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.

[Roadgeekteen]

Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.

A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

[NWI_Irish96]

Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.

A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.

[Roadgeekteen]

Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.

A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.

January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

[NWI_Irish96]

Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.

A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.

January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

I don't see a way of safely having students together in a classroom, or more importantly, living in dorms, until we have a vaccine or a treatment.

I think we are going to get an "interim lockdown" of sorts, with relaxing of the state we're in now but still many restrictions until we get a vaccine or treatment.

1) No crowds at concerts, sporting events, etc.
2) Stores and museums can be open but must limit the number of patrons in the building and have paths/lines marked out on the floor to help shoppers keep their distance from each other
3) Workplaces can reopen with increased telework and reconfiguration of office space to keep workers 6 feet apart from each other

Residential buildings for students are almost certainly going to need to remain closed.  Classes are going to need to be online unless you can manage spacing students all 6 feet from each other in classrooms.

Casinos are going to be especially problematic.  Hard to open casinos and keep people 6 feet from each other.

[Roadgeekteen]

Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.

A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.

January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

I don't see a way of safely having students together in a classroom, or more importantly, living in dorms, until we have a vaccine or a treatment.

I think we are going to get an "interim lockdown" of sorts, with relaxing of the state we're in now but still many restrictions until we get a vaccine or treatment.

1) No crowds at concerts, sporting events, etc.
2) Stores and museums can be open but must limit the number of patrons in the building and have paths/lines marked out on the floor to help shoppers keep their distance from each other
3) Workplaces can reopen with increased telework and reconfiguration of office space to keep workers 6 feet apart from each other

Residential buildings for students are almost certainly going to need to remain closed.  Classes are going to need to be online unless you can manage spacing students all 6 feet from each other in classrooms.

Casinos are going to be especially problematic.  Hard to open casinos and keep people 6 feet from each other.

Wow online classes for over half a year I might go crazy by October.

[kalvado]

Honestly, if we had to put up with a full year that was roughly like the past month, it would be no fun, but it would be manageable and certainly not the end of the world.

A full year would go till March 2021. I graduate in June 2021, so I really want the lockdown over by the fall.

Unless the infection rate drops very sharply over the next couple months, I don't see schools having in person classes before January.

January? I though schools could open up in September? I haven't really heard many people say that we will be out till January.

I don't see a way of safely having students together in a classroom, or more importantly, living in dorms, until we have a vaccine or a treatment.

I think we are going to get an "interim lockdown" of sorts, with relaxing of the state we're in now but still many restrictions until we get a vaccine or treatment.

1) No crowds at concerts, sporting events, etc.
2) Stores and museums can be open but must limit the number of patrons in the building and have paths/lines marked out on the floor to help shoppers keep their distance from each other
3) Workplaces can reopen with increased telework and reconfiguration of office space to keep workers 6 feet apart from each other

Residential buildings for students are almost certainly going to need to remain closed.  Classes are going to need to be online unless you can manage spacing students all 6 feet from each other in classrooms.

Casinos are going to be especially problematic.  Hard to open casinos and keep people 6 feet from each other.

Can be something along the lines of half online. 3 days online, 2 in person, halfclass size- or walls removed for double sized rooms.

[J N Winkler]

I agree that we are likely to be under abnormal measures--not full lockdown, but social distancing mandatory in many, many contexts--until one of the following conditions is met:

*  A cheap, safe, and efficacious vaccine is available and is being produced at scale (the last is actually a nontrivial problem since we would be looking to do ~300 million in the US, not just the small fraction that are newborns or over 65 as with existing childhood immunizations and seasonal flu vaccines)

*  A cheap, safe, and effective treatment is available with rapid turnaround

*  Some combination of cheap, reliable, and highly convenient test and infrastructure for effectively instant contact tracing is available, such that any fresh outbreaks can be shut down while cases are still in the dozens even when typical super-spreading contexts (such as mass gatherings) are taken into account

I frankly think the third condition is more likely to be met than the first two.  We have been trying for a HIV vaccine for over three decades now, and still don't have one--indeed, we have run through multiple vaccine candidates that actually increase susceptibility to HIV.  The antiviral drugs we have in hand right now have largely been developed for viruses we have known about for years; their efficacy against COVID-19 is largely still unknown and given how bad things can get very quickly for patients who are elderly or have comorbidities, any that are found to be effective really probably should be produced at a scale that allows them to be used prophylactically.

On the other hand, I've seen reports of a device currently under development that would be able to detect COVID-19 on your breath, give you an instant answer, and cut the 10% false negative rate of current tests down to nothing.  If this works, and can be produced at the same large scale as, say, home glucose testers, it might be a real game-changer.

[kalvado]

*  A cheap, safe, and efficacious vaccine is available and is being produced at scale (the last is actually a nontrivial problem since we would be looking to do ~300 million in the US, not just the small fraction that are newborns or over 65 as with existing childhood immunizations and seasonal flu vaccines)

This is when flu immunization effort can pay off and those capacities can be finally put to a good use.

On the other hand, I've seen reports of a device currently under development that would be able to detect COVID-19 on your breath, give you an instant answer, and cut the 10% false negative rate of current tests down to nothing.  If this works, and can be produced at the same large scale as, say, home glucose testers, it might be a real game-changer.

Highly doubtful. What I hear is a lot of false negatives come down to not enough viral material in nasal cavity. May explain why runaway infection still has a pretty modest R0.

[J N Winkler]

Highly doubtful. What I hear is a lot of false negatives come down to not enough viral material in nasal cavity. May explain why runaway infection still has a pretty modest R0.

I have heard the same thing.  My understanding is that the breath test currently being developed is supposed to catch virus that is in the lungs and is breathed out, so it doesn't rely on a swab finding virus in the back of the nose.

[gonealookin]

Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.

I took some of the stimulus money I received this week and stimulated both United Airlines and Outrigger Resorts for a Kauai trip later this year.  The prices were pretty low, there aren't any fees for changing or cancelling the flight (the air fare would go back into "travel funds" that could be used up to a year from now) and the resort deposit is fully refundable.

I imagine when the travel industry is ready to get rolling again there will be $99 or less sale fares to anywhere in the country but the seats will be limited, demand will be high and it will be next to impossible to book cheap travel on the dates you want.  Likewise with hotel deals.

[kalvado]

Highly doubtful. What I hear is a lot of false negatives come down to not enough viral material in nasal cavity. May explain why runaway infection still has a pretty modest R0.

I have heard the same thing.  My understanding is that the breath test currently being developed is supposed to catch virus that is in the lungs and is breathed out, so it doesn't rely on a swab finding virus in the back of the nose.

If that was the case, a lot of virus would end up in the upper respiratory tract, and infection would be spreading way faster. I don't believe in free viral particles, surface tension would prevent that. It has to be a droplet - and those don't generally come out of normal breath.

[SSOWorld]

Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.

I took some of the stimulus money I received this week and stimulated both United Airlines and Outrigger Resorts for a Kauai trip later this year.  The prices were pretty low, there aren't any fees for changing or cancelling the flight (the air fare would go back into "travel funds" that could be used up to a year from now) and the resort deposit is fully refundable.

I imagine when the travel industry is ready to get rolling again there will be $99 or less sale fares to anywhere in the country but the seats will be limited, demand will be high and it will be next to impossible to book cheap travel on the dates you want.  Likewise with hotel deals.

Keep in mind that Hawaii is probably going to be the last state to let its guard down - I don't know the details but they consider non-essential travel a misdemeanor and are mandating quarantine of 14 days max.  There is an outside chance it could be still in place in July to October timeframe.

[gonealookin]

Delta just changed their cancellation policy to waive fees on them thru Sept 30.  They're really pessimistic.

Heh, I would totally be willing to fill some of those empty seats if they are on the cheap.

I took some of the stimulus money I received this week and stimulated both United Airlines and Outrigger Resorts for a Kauai trip later this year.  The prices were pretty low, there aren't any fees for changing or cancelling the flight (the air fare would go back into "travel funds" that could be used up to a year from now) and the resort deposit is fully refundable.

I imagine when the travel industry is ready to get rolling again there will be $99 or less sale fares to anywhere in the country but the seats will be limited, demand will be high and it will be next to impossible to book cheap travel on the dates you want.  Likewise with hotel deals.

Keep in mind that Hawaii is probably going to be the last state to let its guard down - I don't know the details but they consider non-essential travel a misdemeanor and are mandating quarantine of 14 days max.  There is an outside chance it could be still in place in July to October timeframe.

Well sure, if you're booking something it's a good idea to take a couple minutes to read the terms and conditions and make sure you're going to be able to get a refund easily if this drags on longer than we think (or if there's a second wave).  I'd be very hesitant about booking any of those super-cheap Priceline deals, for that reason.

[tradephoric]

The USNS comfort and the Javits Center largely remain empty of COVID-19 patients even as NYC is coming down from the apex.  Waiting to open up the economy at this point is just delaying the second wave of infections from starting.  Sure, we can all shelter in place until they come up with a vaccine in a year but that's just not practical.  The whole point of flattening the curve was to prevent the healthcare system from being overrun and that has been accomplished in the first wave.  Here are 3 reasons why the NYC health care system won't be overrun if the economy reopens:

#1.  Herd immunity gained from the the first wave will reduce the infection rate of the second wave (widespread anti-body tests will give us a better idea to the percentage of herd immunity present... the governor will wait for the anti-body tests before making a decision to start opening the economy which is reasonable).

#2.  Even if the economy reopens, people will continue to wear masks and socially distance lowering the contagion rate (something that wasn't happening before the first wave).

#3.  A percentage of the population will continue to shelter in place even after the executive orders are lifted.  Less people out and about compared to the first wave of infections will lower the contagion rate.

[Rothman]

All I'm getting out of this thread is that armchair analysis by non-experts will be our doom.

[kalvado]

All I'm getting out of this thread is that armchair analysis by non-experts will be our doom.

I'm afraid, there are no true experts to be had. Virology, epidemiology, psychology, economy, legal aspects are interweaved, all  have different requirements - often contradictory; and I suspect this will get resolved via try-and-fail methodology. A lot of  "I told ya!" and "It was obvious!" is to be heard. I don't want to be in charge of all this. Maybe someone who lived through 1918 Spanish flu could help coordinating things - but those are not in their best shape by now...
While we're at this - is it just me, or Cuomo actually looks 10-15 years older than he did last year?   

[Rothman]

I have more faith in public health agencies.  The CDC does have varied disciplines represented in its staff, including economists, for example.