NFL (2024 Season)

[Henry]

Blech! Another division title for the archrivals to the north... ("Puck the Fackers", anyone?)

Meanwhile, the rest of the NFC South continues to make things hard for Tom Brady, as he loses a potential division-clinching game for the second time in a row.

[thspfc]

Chris Godwin's ACL tear seems like a huge blow to the Buccaneers, as I don't know who else on their team can play the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman/Chris Godwin role. But of course it's Tom Brady, so, does it really matter?

[webny99]

-The AFC North has 27 total games remaining, and there is not one single easy win in ANY of those 27 games. They've each got at least 4 division games left (Ravens have 5) so they're going to beat up on each other bad and I could EASILY see a 9-8 or 10-7 division winner as the only playoff team from that division.

You know it's bad when a last second field goal sends the Browns from first in the division to last! 
This take seemed spicy at the time, but ended up being pretty spot-on, as now there's basically no chance of multiple playoff teams from the AFC North. Each team has two division games remaining, and look at the third game for each team:

Bengals-Chiefs
Ravens-Rams
Steelers-Chiefs
Browns-Packers

Ooof. No idea how this plays out, but nobody's going 3-0 against that schedule so I still like the Browns' chances even after the loss tonight. Winner of Ravens-Bengals and winner of Browns-Steelers likely playing for the division in Week 18. A 9-8 record (or 9-7-1 for the Steelers) should be enough to win it.

[oscar]

Meanwhile, the rest of the NFC South continues to make things hard for Tom Brady, as he loses a potential division-clinching game for the second time in a row.

Only the Saints. The Panthers and Falcons are already forked, with the former a hot mess (normally my team, but I gave up on them for this season, in favor of the Patriots and Saints).

[webny99]

^ And on that note... time for another fork update! Final forks must be done before Week 17 starts (otherwise you're basically just picking the Week 18 games), so with that in mind, this will be the penultimate update.

Existing list of forked teams:

AFC: Jaguars, Jets, Texans, Dolphins, Steelers, Raiders
NFC: Lions, Bears, Giants, Seahawks

Added 12/20/2021: Panthers, Falcons, Broncos

That leaves 19 teams, saving the final five forks for next week.

[webny99]

Wow, and the Vikings keep their streak of one-score games alive with a Bears TD on the last play of the game. Could have been closer if the Bears kicked FG's on some of their earlier drives. That's now 13 of 14 Vikings games that have been decided by one score this season, only exception being vs. the Seahawks in Week 3. Several of them had no business being that close, but I mean, that is just unbelievable.

Now here's a question: Is it more frustrating to be 6-7 in one score games, or to be 0-5, as the Bills are?

[NWI_Irish96]

Everybody who bet the Vikings -7 benefits from the ridiculous rule that extra points aren't attempted after a scoring play at the end of the game unless it impacts the winner of the game.

Also, I'm not saying the Bears deserved to win because they didn't, but both of Minnesota's TD drives were aided by personal foul calls that the announcing crew and their referee analyst all agreed were bad calls.

[webny99]

Everybody who bet the Vikings -7 benefits from the ridiculous rule that extra points aren't attempted after a scoring play at the end of the game unless it impacts the winner of the game.

Of course, it was the Vikings themselves that caused that rule with the Minneapolis miracle. I don't think it's a ridiculous rule, though. Makes total sense for the same reason extra points are not attempted on walkoff TD's in overtime. There's zero need for another play to occur.

[NWI_Irish96]

Everybody who bet the Vikings -7 benefits from the ridiculous rule that extra points aren't attempted after a scoring play at the end of the game unless it impacts the winner of the game.

Of course, it was the Vikings themselves that caused that rule with the Minneapolis miracle. I don't think it's a ridiculous rule, though. Makes total sense for the same reason extra points are not attempted on walkoff TD's in overtime. There's zero need for another play to occur.

Even though it's very rarely needed, point differential is a tiebreaker. All extra points should be attempted. If they want to exempt overtime, that's fine, but if you're going to do it sometimes in regulation (when the extra point wins the game) then you should do it every time.

[webny99]

Everybody who bet the Vikings -7 benefits from the ridiculous rule that extra points aren't attempted after a scoring play at the end of the game unless it impacts the winner of the game.

Of course, it was the Vikings themselves that caused that rule with the Minneapolis miracle. I don't think it's a ridiculous rule, though. Makes total sense for the same reason extra points are not attempted on walkoff TD's in overtime. There's zero need for another play to occur.

Even though it's very rarely needed, point differential is a tiebreaker. All extra points should be attempted. If they want to exempt overtime, that's fine, but if you're going to do it sometimes in regulation (when the extra point wins the game) then you should do it every time.

A two-point conversion attempt is also allowed if the score is within two. I have no issue with disallowing it on the final play only if the margin is more than two. The teams know the rule, if they're really worried about point differential for the season or covering the spread (which I imagine most teams/coaching staffs aren't as much as the fans are), then they should try to score with time left on the clock and if they don't, that's a clock management problem, not a rules problem. Ultimately if you're trailing by two scores you should be doing that anyways if you want time for an onside kick.

[hotdogPi]

Everybody who bet the Vikings -7 benefits from the ridiculous rule that extra points aren't attempted after a scoring play at the end of the game unless it impacts the winner of the game.

Of course, it was the Vikings themselves that caused that rule with the Minneapolis miracle. I don't think it's a ridiculous rule, though. Makes total sense for the same reason extra points are not attempted on walkoff TD's in overtime. There's zero need for another play to occur.

Even though it's very rarely needed, point differential is a tiebreaker. All extra points should be attempted. If they want to exempt overtime, that's fine, but if you're going to do it sometimes in regulation (when the extra point wins the game) then you should do it every time.

There's no reason extra points need to be attempted. See baseball, where the game ends in the bottom of the 9th or any later inning as soon as the home team leads.

[NWI_Irish96]

Everybody who bet the Vikings -7 benefits from the ridiculous rule that extra points aren't attempted after a scoring play at the end of the game unless it impacts the winner of the game.

Of course, it was the Vikings themselves that caused that rule with the Minneapolis miracle. I don't think it's a ridiculous rule, though. Makes total sense for the same reason extra points are not attempted on walkoff TD's in overtime. There's zero need for another play to occur.

Even though it's very rarely needed, point differential is a tiebreaker. All extra points should be attempted. If they want to exempt overtime, that's fine, but if you're going to do it sometimes in regulation (when the extra point wins the game) then you should do it every time.

There's no reason extra points need to be attempted. See baseball, where the game ends in the bottom of the 9th or any later inning as soon as the home team leads.

Which is fine since run differential is not a tiebreaker in MLB. If you score a touchdown, you've earned the opportunity to get the extra point.

[US 89]

The necessity for point differential as a tiebreaker is so low it doesn't justify wasting time at the end of a game for the score to change by just one point.

Also, remember this game? That would have been a great time for that rule. Packers got robbed of a game-ending interception by the replacement refs and then were forced to bring 11 men back onto the field for a meaningless play just to rub it in.

[webny99]

You know it's bad when a last second field goal sends the Browns from first in the division to last! 

I can't get over how crazy the AFC is. Browns get dropped from 4 seed to 12 seed on a single kick. 13 of 16 teams at or above .500. It doesn't get much more muddled than that!

[jeffandnicole]

Everybody who bet the Vikings -7 benefits from the ridiculous rule that extra points aren't attempted after a scoring play at the end of the game unless it impacts the winner of the game.

Of course, it was the Vikings themselves that caused that rule with the Minneapolis miracle. I don't think it's a ridiculous rule, though. Makes total sense for the same reason extra points are not attempted on walkoff TD's in overtime. There's zero need for another play to occur.

Even though it's very rarely needed, point differential is a tiebreaker. All extra points should be attempted. If they want to exempt overtime, that's fine, but if you're going to do it sometimes in regulation (when the extra point wins the game) then you should do it every time.

There's no reason extra points need to be attempted. See baseball, where the game ends in the bottom of the 9th or any later inning as soon as the home team leads.

Which is fine since run differential is not a tiebreaker in MLB. If you score a touchdown, you've earned the opportunity to get the extra point.

From what I've seen, the players usually don't care. Otherwise, they wouldn't be taking a knee at the end of the game or giving themselves up so the clock can keep running. They're leaving at least 6 points on the board in those instances.

There would also be a lot more 2 point conversion attempts if they really wanted those extra single points.

[JayhawkCO]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

[NWI_Irish96]

This would be my list:

Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Dallas

Kansas City
Buffalo
Indianapolis
Tennessee (if D Henry comes back healthy)

[webny99]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

If you don't mind me asking, why now? It should be noted that since the Patriots lost to the Colts, Bills-Patriots is basically a division title game. Whoever wins takes control and should win it barring something crazy.

That's not the case for the Colts though.. they'd still need to finish two games better than the Titans over the final three to win the division.

But in any case, I would think the Cardinals would be the team to remove from the list at this juncture. I'd have them 5th in the NFC right now, behind the Packers, Bucs, Rams, and Cowboys. They also have a tough remaining schedule (Colts, Cowboys, Seahawks) and can't afford to slip up in a suddenly tight division race.

[JayhawkCO]

Lost 2 of the last 3 since I posted it.  Seemed clueless how to win in the Snow Bowl, were getting crushed by the Bucs before finally kicking into gear, but in their D isn't the same without White. 

[thspfc]

In order:
1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers
4. Rams
5. Cardinals
6. Patriots
7. Cowboys

Revised list:
1. Chiefs
2. Buccaneers
3. Packers
4. Rams
5. Cardinals
6. Cowboys
7. Patriots

I don't trust Wentz when needing to come from behind/lead a huge drive late in a playoff game. A great passing game is more important than a great running game. And the Colts don't have one. I'm not crazy about Mac Jones in that situation either, but I trust Belichick to make the right situational decisions significantly more than I do Reich, the guy who made the worst fourth down decision since that Colts fake punt in 2015. (in case anyone is wondering, it was going for it on 4th and 4 from their own 35 yard line with mere seconds left in a tied overtime).

[thspfc]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

If you don't mind me asking, why now? It should be noted that since the Patriots lost to the Colts, Bills-Patriots is basically a division title game. Whoever wins takes control and should win it barring something crazy.

That's not the case for the Colts though.. they'd still need to finish two games better than the Titans over the final three to win the division.

But in any case, I would think the Cardinals would be the team to remove from the list at this juncture. I'd have them 5th in the NFC right now, behind the Packers, Bucs, Rams, and Cowboys. They also have a tough remaining schedule (Colts, Cowboys, Seahawks) and can't afford to slip up in a suddenly tight division race.

You're right, not winning the division is a death blow to a team's Super Bowl hopes. Not even the Buccaneers could win the title as a wild card.

And my view that the Bills are too inconsistent to make the Super Bowl stands.

[thspfc]

It doesn't seem right that it's almost Christmas and there's still three weeks of regular season left.

Packers 27, Browns 24
Cardinals 38, Colts 17
Falcons 32, Lions 30
Rams 28, Vikings 21
Jets 23, Jaguars 17
Eagles 21, Giants 13
Patriots 24, Bills 21
Bengals 34, Ravens 20
Chargers 31, Texans 14
Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14
Seahawks 38, Bears 10
Raiders 16, Broncos 13
Chiefs 27, Steelers 17
Cowboys 31, Washington 17
Dolphins 30, Saints 13

I'll take the Cardinals to rebound in a big way. People haven't been as quick to bail on them as they were on the Cowboys and Rams a few weeks ago (though maybe because there was more skepticism about the Cardinals to begin with). So, maybe, lessons were learned?

I worry about the Buccaneers in their first game without Chris Godwin. Still have them as second favorites to win the Super Bowl, but I think it could be ugly this Sunday.

[webny99]

You're right, not winning the division is a death blow to a team's Super Bowl hopes. Not even the Buccaneers could win the title as a wild card.

I sense sarcasm. I never said they had to win the division to win the Super Bowl. I just think the Cardinals are a team that needs the division title and especially the first round bye more than some other teams, as it would give them more favorable matchups and a chance to get Hopkins back.

I'll take the Cardinals to rebound in a big way. People haven't been as quick to bail on them as they were on the Cowboys and Rams a few weeks ago (though maybe because there was more skepticism about the Cardinals to begin with). So, maybe, lessons were learned?

The lesson learned is this: don't trust a team that lost to the Panthers and Lions by a combined 42 points and has zero playoff experience to win multiple playoff games.

[thspfc]

You're right, not winning the division is a death blow to a team's Super Bowl hopes. Not even the Buccaneers could win the title as a wild card.

I sense sarcasm. I never said they had to win the division to win the Super Bowl. I just think the Cardinals are a team that needs the division title and especially the first round bye more than some other teams, as it would give them more favorable matchups and a chance to get Hopkins back.

I'll take the Cardinals to rebound in a big way. People haven't been as quick to bail on them as they were on the Cowboys and Rams a few weeks ago (though maybe because there was more skepticism about the Cardinals to begin with). So, maybe, lessons were learned?

The lesson learned is this: don't trust a team that lost to the Panthers and Lions by a combined 42 points and has zero playoff experience to win multiple playoff games.

Everyone needs the first round bye a roughly equal amount.

The Buccaneers lost by a combined 46 points to the Saints last year, and beat that very team in the playoffs. The 2018 Patriots lost to the 5-11 Jags, 6-10 Lions, 7-9 Dolphins, and 9-7 Titans by a combined 64 points.

[I-39]

I would be very surprised if the Super Bowl winner came from anyone outside this list:

NFC
Arizona
Green Bay
Tampa Bay

AFC
Kansas City
New England
Buffalo
Indianapolis

I'll relent and take Buffalo off of this list, but my Colts inclusion stands.

Green Bay should never be amongst the favorites for the Super Bowl. They nearly always choke when it matters.