NFL (2020-2024)

[thspfc]

So the 7-seeds are now 0-6 since they were first introduced 2 years ago. Of those 6, maybe 2 were competitive? (The Colts 2 years ago and the Dolphins this year, both against the 2-seed Bills coincidentally.) Curious how long it will take for a 7-seed to register their first win.

My guess is within the next two seasons. Sooner or later an upset will happen, or just a strong 7 seed beating a 2 seed with a ton of injuries or a deceiving record (like the Vikings, who had the same record as the 2 seed 49ers). But I think it is telling that the league put the 7/2 matchups in the least attractive time slots this weekend. There's no doubt that the playoff expansion has increased revenue, but maybe not as much as the league thought it would.

2021 NFC: Saints  ≥ Eagles
2022 AFC: Steelers > Dolphins
2022 NFC: Lions/Packers > Seahawks

I disagree on these three. The Eagles beat the Saints pretty handily in 2021, up 33-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter, and won 40-29 with the last Saints TD coming with under a minute left. It's tempting to look at the Saints sweeping the Bucs and the Eagles getting blown out by them, but 1) the Saints defense just owns Brady for no apparent reason, and 2) Philly had quite a few lopsided wins (including the one over the Saints) and a throwaway week 18 loss in their 9-8 record.

Full strength Dolphins > full strength Steelers, but I agree that the late-season Steelers were better than the depleted late-season Dolphins.

Packers > Seahawks seems like a load of recency bias to me.

[webny99]

The Eagles beat the Saints pretty handily in 2021, up 33-7 at the end of the 3rd quarter, and won 40-29 with the last Saints TD coming with under a minute left. It's tempting to look at the Saints sweeping the Bucs and the Eagles getting blown out by them, but 1) the Saints defense just owns Brady for no apparent reason, and 2) Philly had quite a few lopsided wins (including the one over the Saints) and a throwaway week 18 loss in their 9-8 record.

You preempted me on this one. That's why I changed the symbol to ≥ at the last second. The Eagles making the playoffs actually came down to having that tiebreaker over the Saints, which they earned pretty handily as you mentioned. Even so, I just couldn't imagine a scenario where the Saints were down 31-0 in the playoffs against the Bucs. Based on their history, the opposite would've been more likely. So, I'd call it a wash at best, with the Eagles being a slightly better team but a much worse matchup with the Bucs.

Packers > Seahawks seems like a load of recency bias to me.

If by recency bias you mean weighting the second half of the season more heavily, then sure. I was thinking of it as "which team is the better overall team right now/would the 49ers least like to play right now".

[webny99]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

[jeffandnicole]

So the 7-seeds are now 0-6 since they were first introduced 2 years ago. Of those 6, maybe 2 were competitive? (The Colts 2 years ago and the Dolphins this year, both against the 2-seed Bills coincidentally.) Curious how long it will take for a 7-seed to register their first win.

My guess is within the next two seasons. Sooner or later an upset will happen, or just a strong 7 seed beating a 2 seed with a ton of injuries or a deceiving record (like the Vikings, who had the same record as the 2 seed 49ers). But I think it is telling that the league put the 7/2 matchups in the least attractive time slots this weekend. There's no doubt that the playoff expansion has increased revenue, but maybe not as much as the league thought it would.

2 additional games.  2 sold out stadiums.  2 games always had to go into the least attractive timeslots.  I'm not sure how else the league could pull in more revenue.

[oscar]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

The Cowboys have a lot of work the rest of this week on points-after-touchdown, or 2-point conversions. Tonight they went 1 for 5 on PATs, and clearly didn't trust their kicker on field goals (the one FG opportunity they had, they instead went for it on 4th down). If they are to have any hope at all on Sunday, they can't afford to leave so many points on the table.

[KCRoadFan]

The 49ers face the Cowboys next weekend - a rematch of "The Catch" from the 1981-82 playoffs. I'm sure we'll be seeing a lot of coverage of that play throughout the week.

[amroad17]

Didn't both the Vikings and Giants have a negative points differential?  When is the last time two teams with negative point differentials matched up in the playoffs?

After perusing Pro Football Reference, the last time was on January 8, 2005 when the St. Louis Rams (8-8; -73 PD) defeated the Seattle Seahawks (9-7; -2 PD) 27-20.  Before that was on December 31, 1989 when the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7; -61 PD) defeated the Houston Oilers (9-7; -47 PD) 26-23.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Not surprised the Cowboys beat the Bucs, but a little surprised that it was as dominant as it was.

[Henry]

Not surprised the Cowboys beat the Bucs, but a little surprised that it was as dominant as it was.

Especially since their kicker missed four out of five extra points. Which is inexcusable, since those should be gimmes; missing field goals is bad, but missing extra points sucks even more. At least Brady didn't master another 28-3-style comeback, proving once again that lightning doesn't always strike twice.

[epzik8]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

And from the 1990s.

[jmacswimmer]

It just occurred to me that 3 of the 4 NFC teams left are from the East (compared to the AFC, where it's the 4 division winners remaining) - wow, the NFC East sure has come a long way from the days of being referred to as the NFC Least!

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

The Cowboys have a lot of work the rest of this week on points-after-touchdown, or 2-point conversions. Tonight they went 1 for 5 on PATs, and clearly didn't trust their kicker on field goals (the one FG opportunity they had, they instead went for it on 4th down). If they are to have any hope at all on Sunday, they can't afford to leave so many points on the table.

Yeah, that's definitely a concern moving forward - it proved inconsequential last night with the Cowboys's domination (add me to the camp expecting it to be closer), but it might not be that way against the 49ers.

Reminds me of the '18 Bears - Cody Parkey hit the uprights 4 times (2 FG, 2 XP) in a November game against the Lions where the outcome was never really in doubt, so the tone afterward was more about the absurdity of it and less how it could have cost the Bears the game. Fast forward 2 months to the wild-card round against the Eagles, where we all know what happened... *shudders*

[ethanhopkin14]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

And from the 1990s.

Meh....It's not the NFC Championship game so it doesn't have the same gravitas. 

[JayhawkCO]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

And from the 1990s.

Meh....It's not the NFC Championship game so it doesn't have the same gravitas.

And, I don't think it's going to be that close. Niners are going to win by 10+.

[Max Rockatansky]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

And from the 1990s.

Meh....It's not the NFC Championship game so it doesn't have the same gravitas.

And, I don't think it's going to be that close. Niners are going to win by 10+.

Especially since the Cowboys kicker can't seem to make extra points anymore.

[webny99]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

And from the 1990s.

Meh....It's not the NFC Championship game so it doesn't have the same gravitas.

Championships may have more gravitas because of the stakes, but overall, Divisional Weekend > Championship Weekend IMO.

And this one should be good because we have the clear top three teams + one really good "underdog" in each conference.

[ethanhopkin14]

Cowboys beat the Bucs in dominant fashion, and the NFC Divisional Round will feature 3 of 4 NFC East teams. A 49ers-Cowboys rematch from last year should be great theater.

And from the 1990s.

Meh....It's not the NFC Championship game so it doesn't have the same gravitas.

Championships may have more gravitas because of the stakes, but overall, Divisional Weekend > Championship Weekend IMO.

And this one should be good because we have the clear top three teams + one really good "underdog" in each conference.

Maybe, but I remember back when the NFC Championship Game was the real Super Bowl, especially the ones the 49ers and Cowboys played in the 80s and 90s.  Mentally am still in that version of the NFL. 

[triplemultiplex]

Always a pleasure to see Tom Brady taken out to the woodshed.
Though I should be careful what I wish for; the last thing I want is for him to end up the broadcast booth and then I have to listen to that smarmy douche during games next year. Ugh. If that happens, there will be a lot of games on mute in my house.

[jgb191]

My prediction as to who will play in the Conference Championship games:

NFC:  San Francsico at Philadelphia
AFC:  Buffalo vs Jacksonville (site TBD?)


My hope for an all-Florida AFC championship went down the drain due to the Dolphins lack of quality coaching (thanks Miami for self-destructing).

[Big John]

^^The neutral site game (Atlanta) is only for a KC/BUF game, JAC/BUF would be in Buffalo.

[thspfc]

Quite a response by the Cowboys following the disastrous Commies game. Dak was sharp, mistakes were few and far between on both sides of the ball. Polar opposite from the first meeting of the two teams back in week 1, when Tampa managed to win a game they completely dominated by only 16 points, by way of 5 field goal attempts in the first half. The last Cowboys touchdown drive was beautiful, slamming the door shut on what looked like a conspiring Brady rally, with a MADE EXTRA POINT (!) to top it off.

I was wrong again predicting that Tampa would go on a run after that dramatic win over the Rams in week 9. I think they looked better after that game than before it (3-5 before week 9, 5-4 in meaningful games week 9 and later), so maybe I was a little bit right, but the offensive issues persisted all year. Four of their eight wins came straight out of the rubble in the 4th quarter against bad teams. Cleveland was a costly loss, San Fran simply a better team. Probably their best half of the year was the first half against Cincy, but then the epic 3rd quarter meltdown happened.

Brady's right arm is reportedly still attached to his body after throwing 66 passes, the second most all-time in a playoff game. Oddly that record is not his, as Big Ben threw 68 in the 2020 wild card, which I suppose will happen when you fall behind 28-0 in the first quarter and have absolutely no deep passing game. (Huh, sounds kinda like last night.)

If he does come back, I doubt it's with Tampa. It's evident that this year has taken a big toll on him, with a bad offensive line, incompetent offensive staff, and inconsistent receivers forcing him to play hero ball by throwing 50+ times a game so that they have a chance to win. Last night he was clearly playing on edge. At least half of his 31 incompletions were off target panic throws to avoid taking a hit, and he doesn't have the pocket mobility to escape those sacks and hits. At his age he can't put his body on the line with 50 dropbacks per game behind that offensive line. He's going to want a strong o-line, solid run game, and reliable receivers. From that perspective San Fran seems like the perfect fit, but if Purdy keeps playing so well, there's no reason for SF to move off him. Vegas could work. But from the outside, it seems like the best choice for him is retirement. There's a new wave of really good teams that aren't going anywhere.

If this is indeed the end of the Tampa Tom era, I think it has to be considered a success for both parties. Super Bowls are really hard to win. They did it. Each of the last two Super Bowl champions are seemingly in bad shape for the future, but all of their players, coaches, owners, and fans would tell you it's worth it.

2) 49ers defeat 7) Seahawks
5) Chargers defeat 4) Jaguars
2) Bills defeat 7) Dolphins
3) Vikings defeat 6) Giants
3) Bengals defeat 6) Ravens
5) Cowboys defeat 4) Buccaneers

1) Chiefs defeat 5) Chargers
3) Bengals defeat 2) Bills
5) Cowboys defeat 1) Eagles
2) 49ers defeat 3) Vikings

1) Chiefs defeat 3) Bengals
2) 49ers defeat 5) Cowboys

1) Chiefs defeat 2) 49ers

4/6 so far. I'll reluctantly stick with my 49ers over Cowboys pick. Wish that could be the NFC Championship instead of the divisional, but I guess the moral of the story is win more games. I'll take Philly over the Giants, and my AFC bracket wasn't altered much.

[webny99]

There's a new wave of really good teams that aren't going anywhere.

Indeed: all 8 divisional round QB's are under age 30 for the first time in NFL history.

[amroad17]

Quite a response by the Cowboys following the disastrous Commies game. Dak was sharp, mistakes were few and far between on both sides of the ball. Polar opposite from the first meeting of the two teams back in week 1, when Tampa managed to win a game they completely dominated by only 16 points, by way of 5 field goal attempts in the first half. The last Cowboys touchdown drive was beautiful, slamming the door shut on what looked like a conspiring Brady rally, with a MADE EXTRA POINT (!) to top it off.

I was wrong again predicting that Tampa would go on a run after that dramatic win over the Rams in week 9. I think they looked better after that game than before it (3-5 before week 9, 5-4 in meaningful games week 9 and later), so maybe I was a little bit right, but the offensive issues persisted all year. Four of their eight wins came straight out of the rubble in the 4th quarter against bad teams. Cleveland was a costly loss, San Fran simply a better team. Probably their best half of the year was the first half against Cincy, but then the epic 3rd quarter meltdown happened.

Brady's right arm is reportedly still attached to his body after throwing 66 passes, the second most all-time in a playoff game. Oddly that record is not his, as Big Ben threw 68 in the 2020 wild card, which I suppose will happen when you fall behind 28-0 in the first quarter and have absolutely no deep passing game. (Huh, sounds kinda like last night.)

If he does come back, I doubt it's with Tampa. It's evident that this year has taken a big toll on him, with a bad offensive line, incompetent offensive staff, and inconsistent receivers forcing him to play hero ball by throwing 50+ times a game so that they have a chance to win. Last night he was clearly playing on edge. At least half of his 31 incompletions were off target panic throws to avoid taking a hit, and he doesn't have the pocket mobility to escape those sacks and hits. At his age he can't put his body on the line with 50 dropbacks per game behind that offensive line. He's going to want a strong o-line, solid run game, and reliable receivers. From that perspective San Fran seems like the perfect fit, but if Purdy keeps playing so well, there's no reason for SF to move off him. Vegas could work. But from the outside, it seems like the best choice for him is retirement. There's a new wave of really good teams that aren't going anywhere.

If this is indeed the end of the Tampa Tom era, I think it has to be considered a success for both parties. Super Bowls are really hard to win. They did it. Each of the last two Super Bowl champions are seemingly in bad shape for the future, but all of their players, coaches, owners, and fans would tell you it's worth it.

2) 49ers defeat 7) Seahawks
5) Chargers defeat 4) Jaguars
2) Bills defeat 7) Dolphins
3) Vikings defeat 6) Giants
3) Bengals defeat 6) Ravens
5) Cowboys defeat 4) Buccaneers

1) Chiefs defeat 5) Chargers
3) Bengals defeat 2) Bills
5) Cowboys defeat 1) Eagles
2) 49ers defeat 3) Vikings

1) Chiefs defeat 3) Bengals
2) 49ers defeat 5) Cowboys

1) Chiefs defeat 2) 49ers

4/6 so far. I'll reluctantly stick with my 49ers over Cowboys pick. Wish that could be the NFC Championship instead of the divisional, but I guess the moral of the story is win more games. I'll take Philly over the Giants, and my AFC bracket wasn't altered much.

This has been one of the more odd seasons in NFL history.  A 33 point comeback along with a 27 point comeback in the playoffs (T-2nd most all time).  Many teams not being able to hold a lead.  A 13-4 team that actually gave up more points than they scored (424-427).  A game that ended up being cancelled due to the health and well being of a player.  And a 45 year old QB that threw 731 passes (43.1/game) in the regular season and another 66 in a playoff game.

Why would an offensive coordinator, with the head coach hearing what is being called, allow his QB to throw it that many times in a game, much less a 45 year old who is, admittedly, the GOAT among QBs.  I see they had the worst running game in the NFL, which is surprising since they have Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White in the backfield.  Was the running game ever given a chance or was it just "We have Tom Brady.  Let's air it out!"  Was it Brady calling the passing plays himself, audiblizing on many plays?  I mean the Buccaneers were second in net yards passing, however, they were 31st in yards per completion at 9.5.  And with all those passing plays, they were 25th in scoring. 

Incredibly, the Buccaneers allowed just 22 sacks, which was the fewest allowed in the NFL--unbelievable for a team that had an average of 45 pass plays per game.  The overall numbers were not horrible (66.4% completion, 26 TD, 10 INT), it just blows my mind that either the Buccaneers or Brady himself would subject themselves to throwing that much in a season.  Well, the GOAT's season is finished, however, Burrow and Company are still continuing. 

Both the Bengals and the Bills have to play much better this coming Sunday if they want to advance.  I believe both teams had both an emotional and a physical letdown due to the events that transpired here in Cincinnati on Monday January 2.  From what I heard from some fans, the crowd at Paycor wasn't really into the playoff game with the Ravens.  They said it was rather quiet through most of the game until the 98 yard fumble recovery TD by Sam Hubbard.  Maybe it was because they were playing the Ravens for the second week in a row at Paycor or maybe the crowd was emotionally drained from the events of Jan 2.  I don't know.  However, I will be rooting for the Bengals this coming Sunday.

[webny99]

From what I heard from some fans, the crowd at Paycor wasn't really into the playoff game with the Ravens.  They said it was rather quiet through most of the game until the 98 yard fumble recovery TD by Sam Hubbard.  Maybe it was because they were playing the Ravens for the second week in a row at Paycor or maybe the crowd was emotionally drained from the events of Jan 2.

I'm always disappointed when teams have to play each other two weeks in a row, and I would guess that teams and fans probably feel the same to some extent. There's less excitement and it feels highly predictable being a re-run of the previous week. In this case, it was a re-run the Bengals probably weren't thrilled about, given that the Ravens are a defense-first team and were successful in both games going on long drives and turning it into a defensive slugfest throughout (a far cry from the high-flying passing game the Bengals have gotten used to the past two seasons). There was probably a sense of dread as the Ravens got stops and kept it close, and in the end I'm sure they just felt relieved to get that big play and get out of there with a win more than anything else.

[triplemultiplex]

If he does come back, I doubt it's with Tampa. ... He's going to want a strong o-line, solid run game, and reliable receivers.

And a weak-ass division to play against.  No coincidence he bails on New England as soon as Buffalo starts getting good.
Moves down south where he was guaranteed to play shit teams at least 6 times a year.

[thspfc]

If he does come back, I doubt it's with Tampa. ... He's going to want a strong o-line, solid run game, and reliable receivers.

And a weak-ass division to play against.  No coincidence he bails on New England as soon as Buffalo starts getting good.
Moves down south where he was guaranteed to play shit teams at least 6 times a year.

(nobody tell him that the Saints were coming off back-to-back 13-3 seasons when Brady went to Tampa)