2023 College Football Season

[US 89]

And with last night, Washington has now all but punched their ticket to the playoff, which will be the first appearance by a PAC-12 team since the 2016 season (in which 4th ranked Washington lost to Alabama in the Peach Bowl). Fitting that the conference responds to its impending demise by not cannibalizing itself for once. It was a great game to watch, but I do not think either Nix or Penix (heh) made a convincing case for their Heisman odds last night. I would imagine that is all for Jayden Daniels at this point.

As far as I'm concerned, Michigan, Georgia, and FSU should all be win-and-in. A loss by any of those three should knock them out - the next teams up should be Texas (assuming they win today), Alabama (also assuming they win), and Oregon in that order.

[NWI_Irish96]

And with last night, Washington has now all but punched their ticket to the playoff, which will be the first appearance by a PAC-12 team since the 2016 season (in which 4th ranked Washington lost to Alabama in the Peach Bowl). Fitting that the conference responds to its impending demise by not cannibalizing itself for once. It was a great game to watch, but I do not think either Nix or Penix (heh) made a convincing case for their Heisman odds last night. I would imagine that is all for Jayden Daniels at this point.

As far as I'm concerned, Michigan, Georgia, and FSU should all be win-and-in. A loss by any of those three should knock them out - the next teams up should be Texas (assuming they win today), Alabama (also assuming they win), and Oregon in that order.

Zero chance a 2-loss Oregon gets ranked ahead of a 1-loss Georgia or Michigan. Probably not even ahead of Ohio State.

[rlb2024]

I think that if Alabama wins, Texas wins, and FSU wins, the rankings should look like this:

1. Michigan
2. Pac-12 Winner
3. Florida State
4. Texas
-----
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State

I think the CFP committee is going to highly value Texas' win over Alabama. Alabama's only track in is if FSU or Texas lose. And Ohio State just does not have the conference championship win pedigree in a year where there are a lot of unbeaten teams at the top, unlike last year when the ACC and Pac-12 were pretty garbage at the top, so I think they will be left out unless FSU, Alabama, Texas, and Oregon all lose. Here's my prediction for the top:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Oregon
4. Texas
-----
5. Washington
6. Ohio State
7. Florida State

If Alabama wins, the only 1-loss team they would be ranked behind is Texas. If Oregon beats Washington, Oregon would be the odd team out. The committee wants an SEC team in and there are plenty of metrics they can fall back on to justify Alabama over Oregon.

The only way the SEC gets left out is if Washington, Texas, Alabama, Florida State and Michigan all win.

Which is a worse loss -- to a 1-loss Texas team early in the season, or to a 2-loss team (Oklahoma) in the middle of the season?

[thspfc]

I think that if Alabama wins, Texas wins, and FSU wins, the rankings should look like this:

1. Michigan
2. Pac-12 Winner
3. Florida State
4. Texas
-----
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State

I think the CFP committee is going to highly value Texas' win over Alabama. Alabama's only track in is if FSU or Texas lose. And Ohio State just does not have the conference championship win pedigree in a year where there are a lot of unbeaten teams at the top, unlike last year when the ACC and Pac-12 were pretty garbage at the top, so I think they will be left out unless FSU, Alabama, Texas, and Oregon all lose. Here's my prediction for the top:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Oregon
4. Texas
-----
5. Washington
6. Ohio State
7. Florida State

If Alabama wins, the only 1-loss team they would be ranked behind is Texas. If Oregon beats Washington, Oregon would be the odd team out. The committee wants an SEC team in and there are plenty of metrics they can fall back on to justify Alabama over Oregon.

The only way the SEC gets left out is if Washington, Texas, Alabama, Florida State and Michigan all win.

Which is a worse loss -- to a 1-loss Texas team early in the season, or to a 2-loss team (Oklahoma) in the middle of the season?

The committee, to their credit, hasn't been weighed down by recency bias over the years. Week 2, week 6, doesn't matter.

And you left out any context whatsoever. If both Texas and Bama win today, they'll have the same record, Texas will have the head-to-head, and Texas will have a better signature win - Bama would jump Georgia, meaning a win over Bama would be more valuable than a win over Georgia. Not to mention, the gap between a 10-point loss at home to a top 5 team and a 4-point last-second loss at a neutral site to a top 15 team in a historically wild rivalry game is really not that large, if it even exists at all. There is 0 chance on God's green earth that Bama gets in over one-loss Texas.

[thspfc]

And Texas is headed to the Playoff. Crazy that the SEC could be left out in the final year of the 4-team format that it dominated.

Florida State wins: 1) Michigan, 2) Washington, 3) FSU, 4) Texas
Florida State loses: 1) Michigan, 2) Washington, 3) Texas, 4) Bama

[ran4sh]

Florida St & Michigan loses - Washington, Texas, Alabama, Georgia

[NWI_Irish96]

Michigan and Florida State win: Michigan, Washington, Texas, Florida State
Michigan and Louisville win: Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama
Iowa and Florida State win: Washington, Texas, Florida State, Alabama
Iowa and Louisville win: Washington, Texas, Alabama, Georgia

[Alps]

SO:
Michigan and Washington won. They're in.
FSU is well ahead of Louisville, so they're very likely in.

Last spot. Three 12-1 teams. Not up to your preference or bias, but what you think they will actually select:
* Alabama: SEC champion, beat undefeated Georgia.
* Texas: Big 12 champion, beat Alabama.
* Georgia: The only other team that went 12-0 in the regular season.

[thspfc]

FSU's situation is weirdly similar to the position UCF was in in 2017. This FSU team has a stronger resume, but the team they're up against - coincidentally, Alabama - also has a much stronger case than they did in 2017.

What I think will ultimately bail the Seminoles out is that they beat LSU by more than Bama did. Also, I think the fact that Bama would be in if they scheduled another cupcake team instead of Texas is making people realize how broken the system is. With the information we have, Texas is better than Bama, but we wouldn't have any reason to think that if they hadn't played each other.

[NWI_Irish96]

FSU's situation is weirdly similar to the position UCF was in in 2017. This FSU team has a stronger resume, but the team they're up against - coincidentally, Alabama - also has a much stronger case than they did in 2017.

What I think will ultimately bail the Seminoles out is that they beat LSU by more than Bama did. Also, I think the fact that Bama would be in if they scheduled another cupcake team instead of Texas is making people realize how broken the system is. With the information we have, Texas is better than Bama, but we wouldn't have any reason to think that if they hadn't played each other.

Of course FSU no longer has the QB that beat LSU, or any of their other wins except the last two.

Ultimately, FSU's defense keeps them in any game and Alabama needed sheer stupidity from Auburn to even be in this position, so I think FSU gets that 4th spot.

[US 89]

FSU had what was arguably the best defensive performance by anyone this year last night. Of everyone Louisville has played this year, nobody has held them to less than 20 points aside from NC State, whom Louisville beat 13-10. Holding Louisville to two field goals is huge. With the QB situation being what it was, the defense knew they would need to play lights out, which is exactly what they did.

Sure, the other side of the ball didn't look pretty. Brock Glenn's stat line leaves something to be desired (8/21, 55 yds), and he threw at least five passes that should have been picked off. But the playoff isn't for nearly another month, and Tate Rodemaker very likely will be back by then. He doesn't quite have the same running or playmaking ability as Jordan Travis, but his passing is on about the same level, and it's clear the passing game was what was missing last night. He's also got a good deal of experience from both this year and last year, especially valuable in a playoff situation.

Combine last night's defense with a Tate-led offense and you absolutely have a top 4 team. So I won't be hearing any arguments for why Alabama is more deserving.

[NWI_Irish96]

FSU had what was arguably the best defensive performance by anyone this year last night. Of everyone Louisville has played this year, nobody has held them to less than 20 points aside from NC State, whom Louisville beat 13-10. Holding Louisville to two field goals is huge. With the QB situation being what it was, the defense knew they would need to play lights out, which is exactly what they did.

Sure, the other side of the ball didn't look pretty. Brock Glenn's stat line leaves something to be desired (8/21, 55 yds), and he threw at least five passes that should have been picked off. But the playoff isn't for nearly another month, and Tate Rodemaker very likely will be back by then. He doesn't quite have the same running or playmaking ability as Jordan Travis, but his passing is on about the same level, and it's clear the passing game was what was missing last night. He's also got a good deal of experience from both this year and last year, especially valuable in a playoff situation.

Combine last night's defense with a Tate-led offense and you absolutely have a top 4 team. So I won't be hearing any arguments for why Alabama is more deserving.

Here's the problem with the pro-SEC argument. Their claim to being better is built on a house of cards. They play very few quality non-conference games, and they lost the two marquee ones, to two teams they are competing with for playoff spots. The arguments for Alabama and/or Georgia being among the four best teams are based entirely on beating SEC teams, who collectively have very little on their resumes. The best wins I can find are Missouri over Kansas State and Mississippi over Tulane and that's not much to use to justify why your conference champion is better than the others.

[thspfc]

FSU had what was arguably the best defensive performance by anyone this year last night. Of everyone Louisville has played this year, nobody has held them to less than 20 points aside from NC State, whom Louisville beat 13-10. Holding Louisville to two field goals is huge. With the QB situation being what it was, the defense knew they would need to play lights out, which is exactly what they did.

Sure, the other side of the ball didn't look pretty. Brock Glenn's stat line leaves something to be desired (8/21, 55 yds), and he threw at least five passes that should have been picked off. But the playoff isn't for nearly another month, and Tate Rodemaker very likely will be back by then. He doesn't quite have the same running or playmaking ability as Jordan Travis, but his passing is on about the same level, and it's clear the passing game was what was missing last night. He's also got a good deal of experience from both this year and last year, especially valuable in a playoff situation.

Combine last night's defense with a Tate-led offense and you absolutely have a top 4 team. So I won't be hearing any arguments for why Alabama is more deserving.

Here's the problem with the pro-SEC argument. Their claim to being better is built on a house of cards. They play very few quality non-conference games, and they lost the two marquee ones, to two teams they are competing with for playoff spots. The arguments for Alabama and/or Georgia being among the four best teams are based entirely on beating SEC teams, who collectively have very little on their resumes. The best wins I can find are Missouri over Kansas State and Mississippi over Tulane and that's not much to use to justify why your conference champion is better than the others.

Agreed.

There's also the "4 best teams" fallacy. I'm a supporter of the 4 best teams making the Playoff, and I don't know how it could logically be done any other way. But the flawed perspective that's going around right now is that Bama is one of the 4 "best" teams, because their name is Alabama. Same thing with Georgia to an extent. It's based on previous seasons, not this one. Everyone says last year's TCU team was fraudulent, not a top 4 team, never should have made the Playoff, but swap the name on the jersey for Bama or Georgia, and that narrative would be completely different.

It should be quite clear that Texas is better than Alabama. FSU vs. Bama is hazier, but again, that LSU win is carrying a lot of weight.

I also don't buy the notion that Bama is a "different team" now than they were in September. The only game that can logically be based on is their narrow win over USF. Basing that narrative on their loss to Texas is flawed logic because that assumes straight away that Bama right now is better than Texas right now, and therefore "should" have beaten them. Bama beat #11 Ole Miss by 14 on September 23. They were always good.

Not to mention Bama has their share of ugly wins just like everyone else. USF, A&M, Arkansas, Auburn.

[hotdogPi]

This is why I've proposed switching to a Swiss tournament system. Teams play teams with the same record. Top however many by win/loss record make it; no human judgment. I'd make just one minor modification: within those with the same record, prioritize minimum total flight distance.

If you're 6-0, you're going to be playing the other 6-0 team in Week 7.

[thspfc]

Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama. I understand why, but it really sucks for Florida State.

This is why I've proposed switching to a Swiss tournament system. Teams play teams with the same record. Top however many by win/loss record make it; no human judgment. I'd make just one minor modification: within those with the same record, prioritize minimum total flight distance.

If you're 6-0, you're going to be playing the other 6-0 team in Week 7.

God no.

[Alps]

Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama. I understand why, but it really sucks for Florida State.

This is why I've proposed switching to a Swiss tournament system. Teams play teams with the same record. Top however many by win/loss record make it; no human judgment. I'd make just one minor modification: within those with the same record, prioritize minimum total flight distance.

If you're 6-0, you're going to be playing the other 6-0 team in Week 7.

God no.

It sucks for the system overall. You now have an undefeated Power 5 conference not able to compete for the championship. I hope a lawsuit is filed and I hope the CFP is disbanded as a result.

[74/171FAN]

Yeah, I agree that FSU was robbed.  Remember the first year of the CFP when Ohio State lost to a mediocre Virginia Tech team at home after losing their first QB, later lost their second QB, and won the national championship with their third QB?   

[NWI_Irish96]

Yeah, I agree that FSU was robbed.  Remember the first year of the CFP when Ohio State lost to a mediocre Virginia Tech team at home after losing their first QB, later lost their second QB, and won the national championship with their third QB?   

Objectively, yes FSU was robbed. Emotionally, this is just payback for them getting a championship they didn't deserve in 1993.

[tmoore952]

I'll be short and sweet. The subjective nature of these decisions is why I've never been a college football fan. Going back for several decades to the times when there was no playoff, when it was decided by sportswriters polls. Maybe it will be better with more teams in the mix. One hopes.

[Alps]

I'll be short and sweet. The subjective nature of these decisions is why I've never been a college football fan. Going back for several decades to the times when there was no playoff, when it was decided by sportswriters polls. Maybe it will be better with more teams in the mix. One hopes.

The answer is simple: Dissolve CFP and state a rule that the Power Five champions will all enter the playoffs. Include two Group of Five champions by ranking, and then the third spot is either an Independent team (if ranked) or a third Group of Five champion.

[hobsini2]

I'll be short and sweet. The subjective nature of these decisions is why I've never been a college football fan. Going back for several decades to the times when there was no playoff, when it was decided by sportswriters polls. Maybe it will be better with more teams in the mix. One hopes.

This is why the college football playoff expansion is needed. Thank God it will start next season.
5 Conference winners. 3 Wild cards. That's all you need. And one thing I would like to see happen is a strength of schedule formula to make the 3 wild cards as objective as possible. This would hopefully end the Alabama nonsense of schedule a creampuff like Mercer or Citadel before playing Auburn in the final week.

[gonealookin]

I'll be short and sweet. The subjective nature of these decisions is why I've never been a college football fan. Going back for several decades to the times when there was no playoff, when it was decided by sportswriters polls. Maybe it will be better with more teams in the mix. One hopes.

The answer is simple: Dissolve CFP and state a rule that the Power Five champions will all enter the playoffs. Include two Group of Five champions by ranking, and then the third spot is either an Independent team (if ranked) or a third Group of Five champion.

I'd say you give too many spots to the Group of Five there.  Evidence:  Liberty is the G5 team going to the New Year's Six, and they open as a 19.5 14.5 point underdog to Pac-12 second place finisher Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

Edit:  I looked at a projection rather than an actual point spread.  5 points is a big difference, but 14.5 is still a lot in a supposedly premier bowl game.

[thspfc]

I'll be short and sweet. The subjective nature of these decisions is why I've never been a college football fan. Going back for several decades to the times when there was no playoff, when it was decided by sportswriters polls. Maybe it will be better with more teams in the mix. One hopes.

The answer is simple: Dissolve CFP and state a rule that the Power Five champions will all enter the playoffs. Include two Group of Five champions by ranking, and then the third spot is either an Independent team (if ranked) or a third Group of Five champion.

I'd say you give too many spots to the Group of Five there.  Evidence:  Liberty is the G5 team going to the New Year's Six, and they open as a 19.5 point underdog to Pac-12 second place finisher Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.

People will overlook it because every other G5 contender would also get smoked by Oregon, but putting Liberty in the NY6 is also dangerous and potentially damaging. Other teams will look at Liberty's joke of a schedule and think, "if going undefeated against the most abysmal schedule we can possibly create gets us into (what will be) the Playoff, why would we schedule good teams?" The payday and exposure of making the Playoff no doubt outweighs what is to be gained from playing good teams out of conference.

I believe the tie-ins, if there will be any official ones at all, are not yet set for the new format. When Oregon's B team stomps Liberty there will be discussion about whether the G5 in its current state deserves a guaranteed tie-in at all, and honestly, I don't want to see teams like this Liberty team anywhere near the Playoff. If there's no automatic berth, G5 programs will actually have to prove that they've earned it (by playing good teams) instead of obnoxiously being 13-0 against a schedule that 80% of the power 5 would go undefeated against.

[US 89]

I'm just glad to see people with no affiliation to FSU are in agreement with me here.

[74/171FAN]

I'm just glad to see people with no affiliation to FSU are in agreement with me here.

Or in my case, actively dislikes FSU.