NFL (2025 Season)

[kphoger]

He got kicked to the side.

Oof.

I see what you did there.

[jgb191]

I'm going to make a few bold predictions for our game (and I could be wrong, but):

1.  The eliminated team will still manage to score over 20 points Monday night.

2.  The Texans offense, defense, and special teams will all contribute points on the scoreboard as has happened the last two playoffs years.  But even so, will that be enough to overcome the sheer brilliance of Aaron Rodgers?  I don't know and I'm afraid to find out, which bring me to my scariest prediction...

3.  This is what worries me heavily:  Aaron Rodgers will use his championship experience and will reach deep inside his bag of tricks and pull off something (a play) never before seen in NFL history to try to throw off our defense (and probably might work). 

Note the Texans have yet to win a road playoff game in Franchise history.

[JayhawkCO]

20-17 Texans.

[gonealookin]

I'm not a Rams fan, but glad they survived Carolina.  That Panthers team would have gotten obliterated by whomever they faced in the next round; the Rams are more likely to make a game of it.

Occasional PSA:  Packers-Bears can be streamed freely and legally on Amazon's Twitch platform:  https://www.twitch.tv/primevideo.  You do have to full-screen that to get rid of the chat on the sidebar.

[NWI_Irish96]

I'm not a Rams fan, but glad they survived Carolina.  That Panthers team would have gotten obliterated by whomever they faced in the next round; the Rams are more likely to make a game of it.

Occasional PSA:  Packers-Bears can be streamed freely and legally on Amazon's Twitch platform:  https://www.twitch.tv/primevideo.  You do have to full-screen that to get rid of the chat on the sidebar.

Also airing on FOX in Chicago and NBC in Green Bay.

[Big John]

I'm not a Rams fan, but glad they survived Carolina.  That Panthers team would have gotten obliterated by whomever they faced in the next round; the Rams are more likely to make a game of it.

Occasional PSA:  Packers-Bears can be streamed freely and legally on Amazon's Twitch platform:  https://www.twitch.tv/primevideo.  You do have to full-screen that to get rid of the chat on the sidebar.

Also airing on FOX in Chicago and NBC in Green Bay.

And Fox in Milwaukee

[Great Lakes Roads]

da Bears are moving on to the Divisional round! LFG!

[NWI_Irish96]

da Bears are moving on to the Divisional round! LFG!

A true Jekyll and Hyde team. They go from a first half where they look like the '75 Bears and then a second half where they look like the '85 Bears.

[thspfc]

Who else remembers when Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields was the biggest talking point in American sports for an entire month?

As I said, everyone in that organization is on thin ice, and simply avoiding a monumental bust won't be enough to save them. They need to make it happen now, and they need to go with whichever QB gives them the best chance to do that. Another year of mediocre play from both Fields and the team as a whole will have them all fired.

The 3 years of information we have on Fields is that he entered the league as one of the worst passers of all starting QBs and has marginally improved each year since, to being a merely below average passer. We also know that he's essentially useless in the final five minutes of close games, and has literally not once in his career been the main reason the Bears won a game. The same cannot be said of any franchise quarterback ever.

It's been shown time and time and time and time again in this league over the past decade or so that if you don't have the guy at QB, you are not going to find sustained success. To me, the difference in outlook between Williams and Fields has to be quite small in order for the trade compensation to come into play.

I don't think it's quite small; I think Fields is not a franchise QB and never will be. Why should I believe year 4 will be different? Different as in, we're not having these conversations again a year from now. Will he continue to improve? Probably. Will year 4 actually be different, though?

The Packers know they have their guy. The Texans know it. The Chiefs and Bengals and Chargers knew it within 8 NFL starts. The Ravens knew it within two seasons. The Eagles knew it midway through Hurts' second full season as a starter. The Bills knew it with Allen, who is a good example of a late blooming QB, by the middle of his third season when he was in the MVP conversation.

And with Fields? Everyone's still arguing about it after 3 years and it's somehow the storyline of the entire offseason. That's just not where you want to be. The only precedent I can think of for a QB who played at Fields' level or lower through his first 3 seasons eventually becoming a semi-long term starter is Geno Smith, and it took him almost a decade.

All that is to say, I'll take a 50% chance over a 10% chance. If that means sacrificing draft picks, so be it. Those draft picks won't look so nice when the entire team is being held back by a subpar QB again.

. . .

Say I find berries growing on a bush in the woods, and they look tasty so I eat a few. After a few minutes I feel nauseous and dizzy. Hmm, seems like the berries are poisonous. I should stop eating the berries, right? By your logic, no, I should keep eating them, because in order for my initial decision to eat them to be justified, I have to become better off after eating berries than I was before. I'm not better off right now, so my only choice is to eat more.

The initial decision to eat berries was the Bears decision to pass on Stroud and keep Fields. Feeling nauseous and dizzy is the Bears watching Stroud ball out while Fields continues to sputter and not improve at a fast enough rate. Now, the decision to keep Fields again is the decision to shove a dozen more berries down your throat, a choice that by all indications will kill you. You're reasoning that this is the correct decision because you somehow can't just admit that you made a mistake by eating the berries in the first place (passing on Stroud)?

. . .

The analogy wasn't supposed to be that deep. It was just supposed to highlight the sunk cost fallacy in the statement. To simplify it further and remove the nuance:

1. I make a bad decision
2. I am faced with another decision: double down on my first decision or change plans

My rationale for making the second decision needs to be based on what I think the best choice is for me in that moment.

Which raises the question: what is the best choice? I explained above that I think the best choice is to draft Williams and trade Fields. Whether or not that's true is a different question entirely, and highly subjective. But what's not subjective is that making a decision that you believe is bad, just because that's the way you did it before, is stupid.

It's completely illogical to pass on a QB last year but go for one this year unless you think it's a 100% guarantee that this year's best QB is as good or better than last year's best QB.

No it's not. Additional information comes to light over time. This year is not last year.

Also, whenever the NFL draft is involved the value "100%" should never be brought up because it does not exist.

If you think Fields showed enough this year to make it the right choice at this moment, all things considered including draft capital, to stick with him over Williams? Be my guest. None of us have a crystal ball. But if you don't think so - if you agree that moving on is optimal - then I just don't understand how you bring yourself to these conclusions.

. . .

and that's where the risk/reward comes into play.

And my position is that in this risk/reward situation, they should trade Fields and draft Williams. I think that will help them win games and keep their jobs.

If they're going to draft Williams, they need to be very certain that he will be a franchise QB (essentially synonymous with "as good as Stroud or better").

If you think that Fields will be a franchise QB, I understand this position. If you don't - which it appears is the case - then no, you don't need to be certain, you just need to recognize that Williams has a very fair shot at becoming one, and Fields does not. I'll take 50% over 10%.


Every additional word I read regarding Justin Fields makes me more confident in my opinion, because the fact that these discussions are still happening screams loud and clear to me about what the Bears should do.

[Max Rockatansky]

The Bears and Caleb Williams could have phoned that game in last night.  The fact that they didn't in a playoff environment tells me that they are the real deal and probably will be competitive for years to come.

[thspfc]

The Bears and Caleb Williams could have phoned that game in last night.

I mean, they could've, but it would've been really stupid and embarrassing . . .

[Max Rockatansky]

The Bears and Caleb Williams could have phoned that game in last night.

I mean, they could've, but it would've been really stupid and embarrassing . . .

It looked like it might have been going that way from the first half sideline tantrums.  Williams especially looked pretty dejected when the Bears were down 18 points.

[thspfc]

The Bears and Caleb Williams could have phoned that game in last night.

I mean, they could've, but it would've been really stupid and embarrassing . . .

It looked like it might have been going that way from the first half sideline tantrums.  Williams especially looked pretty dejected when the Bears were down 18 points.

I would expect pissed expressions and sideline tantrums from a team down 18 in a playoff game, in fact it would be weird if there weren't any.

[webny99]

Who else remembers when Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields was the biggest talking point in American sports for an entire month?

As I said, everyone in that organization is on thin ice, and simply avoiding a monumental bust won't be enough to save them. They need to make it happen now, and they need to go with whichever QB gives them the best chance to do that. Another year of mediocre play from both Fields and the team as a whole will have them all fired.

Wait, is this necro-bump supposed to be some sort of victory lap?

I thought the whole premise was they should draft Williams to save their jobs... and look how that turned out. Sure, Poles saved his job, but only after having to fire the whole coaching staff because Williams was well on his way to being a bust, so it's more accurate to say he got another chance, and hiring Ben Johnson saved his job. And Williams has only been clearly better than Fields since being paired with a good coach.

[thspfc]

Who else remembers when Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields was the biggest talking point in American sports for an entire month?

As I said, everyone in that organization is on thin ice, and simply avoiding a monumental bust won't be enough to save them. They need to make it happen now, and they need to go with whichever QB gives them the best chance to do that. Another year of mediocre play from both Fields and the team as a whole will have them all fired.

Wait, is this necro-bump supposed to be some sort of victory lap?

I thought the whole premise was they should draft Williams to save their jobs... and look how that turned out. Sure, Poles saved his job, but only after having to fire the whole coaching staff because Williams was well on his way to being a bust, so it's more accurate to say he got another chance, and hiring Ben Johnson saved his job. And Williams has only been clearly better than Fields since being paired with a good coach.

It was just an example of how absurd the conversation was, because look now and Caleb is making plays in the postseason while Fields is 3rd stringer for the worst team in the league. I have never cared about Eberflus. The Bears were better off drafting Caleb.

[webny99]

I think it was absurd too, just for a different reason: none of it mattered at all until they got a competent coach.

[NWI_Irish96]

I think it was absurd too, just for a different reason: none of it mattered at all until they got a competent coach.

None of it mattered until they got a competent offensive line.

Caleb > Justin. However Justin with the 2025 OL > Caleb with the 2022 OL.

[gonealookin]

Most years, several of the NFL's "Wild Card Weekend" games are completely skippable.  Late in Game 3 of 6 this weekend, these games have been nuts.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Some random thoughts so far:

Not a good look for the LA Rams to nearly lose to a 8-9 team.

Packers blowing a big lead to their most bitter rival in a playoff game while allowing the narrative to shift to Caleb Williams's rise (and not Jordan Love) could be enough to raise the negative energy in Wisconsin that could cost Matt Lafleur his job. The Bears are no longer owned by Aaron Rodgers.

How long can the Bills rely on Josh Allen donning the Superman cape to win close games? And can the Jaguars be consistent and get out of their own way?
 

[NWI_Irish96]

Niners beat the Eagles to advance to play the Seahawks, sending the Rams to Chicago.

I originally picked the Rams to beat the Bears, but they looked very shaky and Stafford's finger is hurt so I may flip my pick for that one.

[ZLoth]

Niners beat the Eagles to advance to play the Seahawks, sending the Rams to Chicago.

Since I live in Dallas, I am obliged to hate the Eagles. And since I lived most of my life in NorCal, I'm rooting for the Niners to avenge the loss of January 4th.

[webny99]

The NFC West produced 3 of the final 4 teams in the NFC and will send at least 1 team to the championship - 2 if the Rams win in Chicago next weekend. Meanwhile, the NFC East and NFC South will not be represented in the divisional round.

[thspfc]

I was extremely right about the playoff Chargers and extremely wrong about the Patriots all season.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Patriots beat Chargers and await the winner of the Texans/Steelers tonight.

[webny99]

What a disappointing performance from the Chargers. Even though the defense played well for three quarters, the offense was abysmal, red zone and end-game management was confusing (at best), and at no point were they a serious threat to win. An extremely non-energetic, flat and totally deflating effort.