Francis Scott Key Bridge thread 2.0

[hbelkins]

There is new news about the cost and timeline for rebuilding the I-695 bridge.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/17/key-bridge-rebuild-costs-soar/?fbclid=IwY2xjawOJnOdleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFZV2ZlVXBIWENZUDBpbDJac3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHutbOKACLWPTQ_8iQMEUYjmu9UZ3Ou5zu_TDyBFZWyuBJtBU98ZYWzBCGF7Z_aem_Tq4_SMqidehTn55wgNrEbw

[NE2]

***dolphin secure***
🍿🐬🍿🐬🍿🐬

[kphoger]

***dolphin secure***
🍿🐬🍿🐬🍿🐬

Thank you for stewarding this legacy for us.

[Beltway]

There is new news about the cost and timeline for rebuilding the I-695 bridge.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/2025/11/17/key-bridge-rebuild-costs-soar/?fbclid=IwY2xjawOJnOdleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFZV2ZlVXBIWENZUDBpbDJac3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHutbOKACLWPTQ_8iQMEUYjmu9UZ3Ou5zu_TDyBFZWyuBJtBU98ZYWzBCGF7Z_aem_Tq4_SMqidehTn55wgNrEbw

Excerpt:
The MDTA Board is prepared to update their financial forecast to include the updated cost estimate range to $4.3-$5.2 billion with an anticipated open-to-traffic date in late 2030.

https://keybridgerebuild.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/MDTA-Releases-Updated-Estimates-for-Cost-Range-and-Schedule-for-Francis-Scott-Key-Bridge-Rebuild.pdf

It will be interesting to see what Washington has to say about this.

The National Transportation Safety Board is also about to publish their final report and recommendations.

On November 18, 2025, the NTSB board will hold a public meeting in Washington, DC, to finalize the investigation on this bridge collapse.

The final report will be released a few weeks after the meeting, making it the definitive account of the causes and recommended reforms. Probable cause determination imminent: The board meeting will establish official conclusions.

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/nr-20251110.aspx

[Rothman]

For Pete-the-Dolphin's sake...

[The Ghostbuster]

I tried reading the story, but I only got partially through it before the paywall popped up.

[Great Lakes Roads]

Here's a video on an update on the bridge project.

EDIT- projected to cost between $4.3 billion and $5.2 billion

[Chris]

The main span length has also increased to 1,665 ft. This would surpass the main span length of the Corpus Christi Harbor Bridge in Texas by a few feet. The CCH Bridge is currently the largest completed cable-stayed bridge in the U.S., though the Gordie Howe Bridge to Canada will be considerably larger.

They also say that the bridge pylons will be taller, but not by how much. The original pylon height was quoted as 'over 600 ft'.

The contract is a two phase 'progressive design-build' contract. This means that the contract is awarded to the design firm, which is then also the preferred bidder (on its own design). This means that the final price is set when the design is mostly completed, or in this case 70% completed. This also means that changes are easier to adopt into the final design.

It also allows for an accelerated construction schedule. They have planned a groundbreaking in the next few months, even though the final design is not yet completed. Cable-stayed bridge projects of this scale are not common in the U.S., the design phase usually takes much longer. Almost all projects of this scale have a much longer start-up phase. For example the new I-55 bridge crossing in Memphis has been studied and designed for over 20 years. The new Blatnik Bridge near Duluth, Minnesota takes 7 years from the preferred alternative to final design.

[Beltway]

The main span length has also increased to 1,665 ft. This would surpass the main span length of the Corpus Christi Harbor Bridge in Texas by a few feet. The CCH Bridge is currently the largest completed cable-stayed bridge in the U.S., though the Gordie Howe Bridge to Canada will be considerably larger.

The Corpus Christi Harbor Bridge, I‑710 Long Beach International Gateway Bridge, and Gordie Howe International Bridge all completely span the waters with no piers in the water.

The Key Bridge proposed south pier is in waters 33 feet deep at MHHW which can approach 40 feet in stacked tidal events. That means that it is vulnerable to ship strike which would lead to severe damage or destruction of the bridge.

The MDTA touted "football field sized protective island" is visible in the image renderings and a large cargo ship would sack that and laugh it off the field.

They have planned a groundbreaking in the next few months, even though the final design is not yet completed.

In light of yesterday's news I don't see that happening until there is a top level federal review of the project, like taking at least several months.

[LilianaUwU]

[WillWeaverRVA]

Key Bridge 2: Funding Boogaloo

[Beltway]

Loose Wire on Containership Dali Leads to Blackouts and Contact with Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge
https://www.ntsb.gov/news/press-releases/Pages/NR20251118.aspx

Excerpts:

WASHINGTON (Nov. 18, 2025) -- The NTSB said Tuesday that a single loose wire on the 984-foot-long containership Dali caused an electrical blackout that led to the giant vessel veering and contacting the nearby Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, which then collapsed, killing six highway workers.

Contributing to the collapse of the Key Bridge and the loss of life was the lack of countermeasures to reduce the bridge's vulnerability to collapse due to impact by ocean-going vessels, which have only grown larger since the Key Bridge's opening in 1977. When the Japan-flagged containership Blue Nagoya contacted the Key Bridge after losing propulsion in 1980, the 390-foot-long vessel caused only minor damage. The Dali, however, is 10 times the size of the Blue Nagoya.

As part of the investigation, the NTSB in March released an initial report on the vulnerability of bridges nationwide to large vessel strikes. The report found that the Maryland Transportation Authority—and many other owners of bridges spanning navigable waterways used by ocean-going vessels—were likely unaware of the potential risk that a vessel collision could pose to their structures. This was despite longstanding guidance from the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials recommending that bridge owners perform these assessments. 

[Scott5114]

As long as we're hammering thread subjects into the ground, I think it would be perfectly fine to use Topeka going eastbound and Denver westbound.

[Rothman]

As long as we're hammering thread subjects into the ground, I think it would be perfectly fine to use Topeka going eastbound and Denver westbound.

Oh...you...you...are evil...

[Scott5114]

As long as we're hammering thread subjects into the ground, I think it would be perfectly fine to use Topeka going eastbound and Denver westbound.

Oh...you...you...are evil...

It took you fifteen years to figure that out?

[NE2]

As long as we're hammering thread subjects into the ground, I think it would be perfectly fine to use Topeka going eastbound and Denver westbound.

There's nothing fine about that part of I-70. Never again.

[Plutonic Panda]

This article shouldn't have any paywall:

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/key-bridge-rebuild-cost-increase-opening-timeline-delayed/69463952

[ElishaGOtis]

As long as we're hammering thread subjects into the ground, I think it would be perfectly fine to use Topeka going eastbound and Denver westbound.

When life gives you Limons, you spend $5.2B and 5 years making Limonade through a progressive design-build contract.      

On a more serious note, has there been any discussion on whether the toll prices will be affected by this significant cost increase & thus higher expense to the MTA?

[Beltway]

On a more serious note, has there been any discussion on whether the toll prices will be affected by this significant cost increase & thus higher expense to the MTA?

I finally got an e-mail response from the MDTA project team a month ago.

Yes they are planning on tolling a new bridge. I also cannot find any published statement to this effect.

The congressional omnibus spending bill last fall had a line item for 100% federal funding for this project using the FHWA Emergency Relief (ER) program. That would not incur any additional bond indebtedness for MDTA.

However, that also used a place marker cost estimate of $1.7 to $1.9 billion, which generally seemed reasonable. A few days ago the 70% design completion level has determined an updated cost estimate range to $4.3 to $5.2 billion with an anticipated open-to-traffic date in late 2030.

While technically the federal legislation does not have a cap on how much additional project cost it will provide 100% federal funding for, there will almost certainly be official discussions about it in the very near future.

[Henry]

Well, 2030 is a more plausible completion date, with more time to set everything up, even at a much higher price tag. What matters at this point is that the bridge is built right.

[MASTERNC]

They can't finish the flex lane project on 695 soon enough now

[Beltway]

They can't finish the flex lane project on 695 soon enough now

Aren't flex lanes only for emergency use to work around incident lane closures?

That is what they are on the Illinois Northwest Tollway --

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Elgin,+IL/@42.066666,-88.1096583,3a,30y,270.43h,91.64t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sX8kOt0GC2OwB47IjRlvyQA!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fcb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile%26w%3D900%26h%3D600%26pitch%3D-1.6409864689564415%26panoid%3DX8kOt0GC2OwB47IjRlvyQA%26yaw%3D270.4308542304852!7i16384!8i8192!4m6!3m5!1s0x880efbc0eb5c0333:0x303bcbf1d154e560!8m2!3d42.0354084!4d-88.2825668!16zL20vMHM0c2o?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MTExNy4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

[Beltway]

Highway project bidding cost is very dependent on what contractors are willing to bid. It can vary widely. For example, a project estimated by the agency at $100 million could have low bids at half that in lean economic times, or twice that in robust times when contractors are maxed out and don't really need the extra work. This is common historically.

This $4.3 to $5.2 billion estimate comes from what Kiewit is willing to provide at the 70% final design level. Near full design there will be a specific number that they will specify. The $1.7 to $1.9 billion may have been realistic for normal bridge contracting in 2024.

Since Maryland has stated an extremely high demand for this project, and a war-speed effort to complete the project, and since the omnibus Senate bill provided 100% federal funding, and at least on paper with no maximum amount specified, Kiewit knows that they can demand a premium price and probably get it. There is nothing wrong with this, this is how the highway contracting business operates.

Maryland at this point should refuse the bid and go back to the drawing board, and put the project thru normal NEPA EIS processes, and find a calmer and more routine business environment to develop the project in. The current cost estimate is outrageous and a fantastically expensive waste of taxpayer dollars.

[Beltway]

NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD
Meeting of November 18, 2025
Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse
Patapsco River
Baltimore, Maryland
March 26, 2024
DCA24MM031

Probable Cause

We determined that the probable cause of the contact of the containership Dali with the Francis Scott Key Bridge was a loss of electrical power (blackout), due to a loose signal wire connection to a terminal block stemming from the improper installation of wire-label banding, resulting in the vessel's loss of propulsion and steering close to the bridge. Contributing to the collapse of the Key Bridge and the loss of life was the lack of countermeasures to reduce its vulnerability to collapse due to impact by oceangoing vessels, which could have been implemented if a vulnerability assessment had been conducted by the MDTA as recommended by AASHTO. Also contributing to the loss of life was the lack of effective and immediate communications to notify the highway workers to evacuate the bridge.

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Documents/Board%20Summary%20Contact%20of%20Containership%20Dali%20with%20Francis%20Scott%20Key%20Bridge.pdf

RTTF: The final NTSB report will be issued in early December.

The final report will be released a few weeks after the meeting, making it the definitive account of the causes and recommended reforms. Probable cause determination imminent. The board meeting will establish official conclusions.

Safety recommendations already issued: In March 2025, the NTSB urged vulnerability assessments for 68 bridges across 19 states, showing that the collapse was part of a systemic risk profile, not just a Maryland-specific issue.

The deepwater pier protection problem -- shallow-water piers can be shielded with dolphins, rock islands, or stone-filled cylinders. These systems dissipate energy and redirect vessels. Deepwater piers are far more difficult. The forces from a Panamax or New Panamax vessel at speed are so immense that no proven, full-scale technology exists to guarantee protection. Current practice relies on enlarged dolphins, sacrificial islands, or layered piles, but these are extrapolations of shallow-water solutions. They have not been validated against the kinetic energy of modern container ships in deep channels.

The final report will almost certainly stress that there is no proven, universally accepted technology to protect deepwater bridge piers from modern containerships. That is why many new crossings (Corpus Christi Harbor Bridge, I‑710 Long Beach International Gateway Bridge, Gordie Howe International Bridge, Hampton Roads tunnels) avoid placing piers in navigable channels altogether.

[NE2]

https://www.shutterstock.com/video/clip-3466321503-dolphin-soars-above-large-bridge-showcasing-incredible