Grand Parkway to Real Estate and Life Issues

[Bobby5280]

If America's housing market didn't turn into such a casino for private equity companies and global investors over the past few years that vacant area next to the Northeast portion of the Grand Parkway would probably be filled in with new subdivisions already. Home prices just became way too ridiculous.

[Rothman]

If America's housing market didn't turn into such a casino for private equity companies and global investors over the past few years that vacant area next to the Northeast portion of the Grand Parkway would probably be filled in with new subdivisions already. Home prices just became way too ridiculous.

Economist Christopher Clarke has claimed the proportion of investor purchases has been exaggerated and it really is just a matter of restricted supply, pointing a finger at zoning laws...

*shrug*

[kalvado]

If America's housing market didn't turn into such a casino for private equity companies and global investors over the past few years that vacant area next to the Northeast portion of the Grand Parkway would probably be filled in with new subdivisions already. Home prices just became way too ridiculous.

Economist Christopher Clarke has claimed the proportion of investor purchases has been exaggerated and it really is just a matter of restricted supply, pointing a finger at zoning laws...

*shrug*

If I may have my moderately educated opinion... It's mostly social.
population growth is stagnating, and it's not that a lot of old housing is becoming unusable.  But living standards..

[Rothman]

If America's housing market didn't turn into such a casino for private equity companies and global investors over the past few years that vacant area next to the Northeast portion of the Grand Parkway would probably be filled in with new subdivisions already. Home prices just became way too ridiculous.

Economist Christopher Clarke has claimed the proportion of investor purchases has been exaggerated and it really is just a matter of restricted supply, pointing a finger at zoning laws...

*shrug*

If I may have my moderately educated opinion... It's mostly social.
population growth is stagnating, and it's not that a lot of old housing is becoming unusable.  But living standards..

Not sure that AEI graph supports your hypothesis.  Builders building bigger homes for bigger profits are not incetivized to build smaller and more affordable...

[kalvado]

If America's housing market didn't turn into such a casino for private equity companies and global investors over the past few years that vacant area next to the Northeast portion of the Grand Parkway would probably be filled in with new subdivisions already. Home prices just became way too ridiculous.

Economist Christopher Clarke has claimed the proportion of investor purchases has been exaggerated and it really is just a matter of restricted supply, pointing a finger at zoning laws...

*shrug*

If I may have my moderately educated opinion... It's mostly social.
population growth is stagnating, and it's not that a lot of old housing is becoming unusable.  But living standards..

Not sure that AEI graph supports your hypothesis.  Builders building bigger homes for bigger profits are not incetivized to build smaller and more affordable...

That's plausible - but it's not a US-only trend, al;though at different starting points. BTW, some discrepancy with the graph below in terms of modern situation, maybe message is US is saturating.

[PColumbus73]

Toll road or not, having the development's primary access through a freeway is a bit backward. I would have expected that Rio Medina Trail be improved enough, i.e. paved as a two-lane road, to serve as the 'primary access' until Jack Road is completed to Katy Hockley Road.

Even though the area isn't heavily developed, they're forcing Grand Pkwy to carry more traffic than it needs to and treating it as an at-grade arterial rather than a regional expressway.

To that end, I do sympathize with that community. This appears to be poor planning on the municipalities.

[The Ghostbuster]

Could this another case of "not paying attention to what's going on until it arrives at their house"?

[Bobby5280]

Economist Christopher Clarke has claimed the proportion of investor purchases has been exaggerated and it really is just a matter of restricted supply, pointing a finger at zoning laws...

Institutional investors are having a big impact. A seemingly small percentage of the purchases have been done directly by firms like Blackrock, KKR, etc. The trick is these firms have dozens of other subsidiary companies doing the buying. That helps mask just how much of the market they really own. Then there are the "mom and pop" individual investors: high income people who buy half a dozen or even a few dozen properties. That's a big chunk there.

Zoning and the class warfare crap that wafts out of it is another culprit.

City councils get in league with home builders and neighborhood associations to help create forced scarcity in a given city or town. That puts a floor under high prices and home values while working to keep out the riff raff.

Any residential development that can be deemed "affordable housing" will be met by angry crowds at city council meetings. Lots of string pulling happens in the background to make such development fail -or be confined to "bad" areas of town. The goal is class segregation. Low income kids shouldn't be allowed to attend school in a better funded school district.

This shit has been going on for a few decades. Now that the housing industry has been utterly gamed we're finally starting to see consequences: demographic decline. It's this simple: if it takes being rich in order to afford to get married and have children America's birth rates are going to collapse. Our workforce size and tax base will collapse along with it.

20 or so years from now when a lot of those McMansion owners are wanting to sell and downsize they're going to have very few buyers. I might not live long enough to see it, but I can imagine a bunch of these suburban gated communities becoming vacant, getting bulldozed and turned into undeveloped green space again.

[kalvado]

Economist Christopher Clarke has claimed the proportion of investor purchases has been exaggerated and it really is just a matter of restricted supply, pointing a finger at zoning laws...

Institutional investors are having a big impact. A seemingly small percentage of the purchases have been done directly by firms like Blackrock, KKR, etc. The trick is these firms have dozens of other subsidiary companies doing the buying. That helps mask just how much of the market they really own. Then there are the "mom and pop" individual investors: high income people who buy half a dozen or even a few dozen properties. That's a big chunk there.

Zoning and the class warfare crap that wafts out of it is another culprit.

City councils get in league with home builders and neighborhood associations to help create forced scarcity in a given city or town. That puts a floor under high prices and home values while working to keep out the riff raff.

Any residential development that can be deemed "affordable housing" will be met by angry crowds at city council meetings. Lots of string pulling happens in the background to make such development fail -or be confined to "bad" areas of town. The goal is class segregation. Low income kids shouldn't be allowed to attend school in a better funded school district.

This shit has been going on for a few decades. Now that the housing industry has been utterly gamed we're finally starting to see consequences: demographic decline. It's this simple: if it takes being rich in order to afford to get married and have children America's birth rates are going to collapse. Our workforce size and tax base will collapse along with it.

20 or so years from now when a lot of those McMansion owners are wanting to sell and downsize they're going to have very few buyers. I might not live long enough to see it, but I can imagine a bunch of these suburban gated communities becoming vacant, getting bulldozed and turned into undeveloped green space again.

Demographic decline is going on worldwide, and in US in particular significantly - and sharply - accelerated by 2008 crisis. Not sure if you can really blame housing.
And housing market would see a significant shift much sooner, as baby boomers expire. Probably within next decade.

[kphoger]

kalvado, are you secretly tradephoric in disguise?

[kalvado]

kalvado, are you secretly tradephoric in disguise?

How did you figure it out? No

[Bobby5280]

Demographic decline is going on worldwide, and in US in particular significantly - and sharply - accelerated by 2008 crisis. Not sure if you can really blame housing.

Living cost inflation, particularly in the rising cost of parenthood is very much the leading factor in the United States. Birth rates of American born women had been holding at roughly the replacement rate level of 2.1 children per female until the Great Recession in the late 2000's. Virtually all the net population gains in the US since the early 1970's have come via immigration. Since 2008 American birth rates been on a downward trend and that trend has seemed to accelerate lately.

Yes, there are other factors contributing to this demographic downturn. Americans are now more socially isolated, which cuts down on chances of meeting possible mates. I think people are far more picky now too. They see the imagery our pop culture sells to everyone. It's really pervasive in social media. They don't mind being alone, which makes it easier to hold out for that "perfect" match that may never come along. Men and women are increasingly divided; in recent years politics has worsened that divide. Women are also getting the message they can't sit back and rely on a man to come to their rescue. They're having to get their own careers and make their own money because a bunch of us men are unreliable fuck-ups.

European countries have been in a negative demographic slide for quite a while longer. Health care and college may be more affordable. But not housing and other living costs. Some of the same social-cultural things affecting the US is affecting many other nations. The demographic situation is getting desperate in countries like Japan, South Korea and China.

[Max Rockatansky]

Kids have been a luxury item for a couple decades.  Unless you really want them it is probably best to avoid the financial black hole.

Of course I say this after my wife and I failed to produce offspring.  Fertility issues got in the way and couldn't be overcome.

[kalvado]

Demographic decline is going on worldwide, and in US in particular significantly - and sharply - accelerated by 2008 crisis. Not sure if you can really blame housing.

Living cost inflation, particularly in the rising cost of parenthood is very much the leading factor in the United States. Birth rates of American born women had been holding at roughly the replacement rate level of 2.1 children per female until the Great Recession in the late 2000's. Virtually all the net population gains in the US since the early 1970's have come via immigration. Since 2008 American birth rates been on a downward trend and that trend has seemed to accelerate lately.

Yes, there are other factors contributing to this demographic downturn. Americans are now more socially isolated, which cuts down on chances of meeting possible mates. I think people are far more picky now too. They see the imagery our pop culture sells to everyone. It's really pervasive in social media. They don't mind being alone, which makes it easier to hold out for that "perfect" match that may never come along. Men and women are increasingly divided; in recent years politics has worsened that divide. Women are also getting the message they can't sit back and rely on a man to come to their rescue. They're having to get their own careers and make their own money because a bunch of us men are unreliable fuck-ups.

European countries have been in a negative demographic slide for quite a while longer. Health care and college may be more affordable. But not housing and other living costs. Some of the same social-cultural things affecting the US is affecting many other nations. The demographic situation is getting desperate in countries like Japan, South Korea and China.

I suspect it's biology. Planet is becoming overcrowded.

[Bobby5280]

I feel really sad for couples who really do want children, but end up not being able to have any due to medical issues. I know some friends and one former co-worker in that situation. Women can take that experience really hard and they have all my sympathy. Adoption is an option, but it's obviously not quite the same as having a child that shares some of your own DNA.

I suspect it's biology. Planet is becoming overcrowded.

A population becoming more educated and more modernized is more a culprit than any sort of mother nature factor. That pushes birth rates down to replacement rate levels. Rising costs of modern living (or at least income to living cost ratio) pushes those birth rates down even farther.

[MaxConcrete]

Right on cue (actually, coincidentally), today there is big news about Bridgeland. The Houston Texans football team announced it will build an 83-acre (33.6 ha) campus with headquarters and training facility in the Bridgeland Central section, which is adjacent to the toll-dependent Creekland Village. (Announcement, news report)

I have not found a map which pinpoints the location in Bridgeland Central, but the area south of the Chevron tract seems most likely. Wherever it is, the Texans facility will surely accelerate infrastructure work, probably including toll-free frontage roads along the Grand Parkway.

About 22 of the 83 acres will be devoted to a "state-of-the-art global headquarters and training complex for the Texans," according to a news release from the team.

"This agreement covers everything from infrastructure improvements, more access to Harris County services, youth development, and economic growth - it truly is a great day for Harris County," Precinct 3 Commissioner Ramsey said.

The mixed-use development plan is projected to drive $34 billion in economic impact across the region, create more than 17,000 jobs, and feature 61 acres of retail, restaurant, hotel, commercial, entertainment, and medical office space in Bridgeland Central, the community's emerging 925-acre urban core.

[kphoger]

I suspect it's biology. Planet is becoming overcrowded.

↓  You don't think it's just this?  ↓

[Rothman]

I feel really sad for couples who really do want children, but end up not being able to have any due to medical issues. I know some friends and one former co-worker in that situation. Women can take that experience really hard and they have all my sympathy. Adoption is an option, but it's obviously not quite the same as having a child that shares some of your own DNA.

I suspect it's biology. Planet is becoming overcrowded.

A population becoming more educated and more modernized is more a culprit than any sort of mother nature factor. That pushes birth rates down to replacement rate levels. Rising costs of modern living (or at least income to living cost ratio) pushes those birth rates down even farther.

Incentivize unprotected sex.

[kalvado]

Right on cue (actually, coincidentally), today there is big news about Bridgeland. The Houston Texans football team announced it will build an 83-acre (33.6 ha) campus with headquarters and training facility in the Bridgeland Central section, which is adjacent to the toll-dependent Creekland Village. (Announcement, news report)

I have not found a map which pinpoints the location in Bridgeland Central, but the area south of the Chevron tract seems most likely. Wherever it is, the Texans facility will surely accelerate infrastructure work, probably including toll-free frontage roads along the Grand Parkway.

About 22 of the 83 acres will be devoted to a "state-of-the-art global headquarters and training complex for the Texans," according to a news release from the team.

"This agreement covers everything from infrastructure improvements, more access to Harris County services, youth development, and economic growth - it truly is a great day for Harris County," Precinct 3 Commissioner Ramsey said.

The mixed-use development plan is projected to drive $34 billion in economic impact across the region, create more than 17,000 jobs, and feature 61 acres of retail, restaurant, hotel, commercial, entertainment, and medical office space in Bridgeland Central, the community's emerging 925-acre urban core.

I feel really sad for couples who really do want children, but end up not being able to have any due to medical issues. I know some friends and one former co-worker in that situation. Women can take that experience really hard and they have all my sympathy. Adoption is an option, but it's obviously not quite the same as having a child that shares some of your own DNA.

I suspect it's biology. Planet is becoming overcrowded.

A population becoming more educated and more modernized is more a culprit than any sort of mother nature factor. That pushes birth rates down to replacement rate levels. Rising costs of modern living (or at least income to living cost ratio) pushes those birth rates down even farther.

Yes, living is so much more expensive... By the way, how much people starved to death 100 years ago compared to this day?

[PColumbus73]

From a planning standpoint, is it a good idea to have a development landlocked (cul-de-sac'd?) by an expressway? Even though the Grand Parkway interchange will carry most of the traffic from the community, having being the only access to reach other destinations, schools, groceries, work is bad planning.

The counterargument could be that Rio Medina Trail provides an alternative access. However, to the average driver, that road doesn't appear to be accessible to the public or completed to the existing roadway system. Assuming Rio Medina Trail is open to the public, using it to reach other destinations is so convoluted as to render it useless until the adjacent developments are completed.

[kalvado]

From a planning standpoint, is it a good idea to have a development landlocked (cul-de-sac'd?) by an expressway? Even though the Grand Parkway interchange will carry most of the traffic from the community, having being the only access to reach other destinations, schools, groceries, work is bad planning.

The counterargument could be that Rio Medina Trail provides an alternative access. However, to the average driver, that road doesn't appear to be accessible to the public or completed to the existing roadway system. Assuming Rio Medina Trail is open to the public, using it to reach other destinations is so convoluted as to render it useless until the adjacent developments are completed.

Looking at all the stubs in the area, road network is nowhere close to complete. So from planning perspective, it's a temporary thing

[PColumbus73]

From a planning standpoint, is it a good idea to have a development landlocked (cul-de-sac'd?) by an expressway? Even though the Grand Parkway interchange will carry most of the traffic from the community, having being the only access to reach other destinations, schools, groceries, work is bad planning.

The counterargument could be that Rio Medina Trail provides an alternative access. However, to the average driver, that road doesn't appear to be accessible to the public or completed to the existing roadway system. Assuming Rio Medina Trail is open to the public, using it to reach other destinations is so convoluted as to render it useless until the adjacent developments are completed.

Looking at all the stubs in the area, road network is nowhere close to complete. So from planning perspective, it's a temporary thing

It's obvious to me that the municipality is relying on the adjacent developments to fill in the road network for them, which is not unusual. But that also means the people who are now moving in are waiting on the other developers to complete their portion, which is why I'm questioning why another temporary road was not provided for residents, or that Rio Medina wasn't improved enough to be used as a secondary access until the remainder of the future road network was completed.

[wxfree]

Looking at the property parcel map, it appears that Rio Medina Trail is a public road, although not paved, around the curve to the north, then it becomes private property where it turns to the west.  However, that land is owned by the developer.  The road connects with the end of House Road, which is a public road.  The developer could improve that road, chip seal or something cheap if the alignment doesn't fit the long-term plans.

However, that route is rather circuitous, and the toll for the direct route is 56 cents.  It's approximately 5.5 miles around, which is about 4 miles longer than using the toll road.  Having to accelerate from three right angle turns and two stops introduces a lot of inefficiency.  You might save a little going that way, but it isn't going to be much.  If the toll costs as much as one-sixth of a gallon of fuel, and your vehicle gets 25 miles per gallon and we cut that in half to 12 miles per gallon to account for the stopping and starting, the 4 additional miles requires the use of about one-third of a gallon of fuel,or approximately half of the cost of the toll.  If you're like most drivers who accelerate too fast because you're annoyed by the stops and turns and for some reason wasting fuel makes you feel better, the free route could end up costing more.

[Bobby5280]

A population becoming more educated and more modernized is more a culprit than any sort of mother nature factor. That pushes birth rates down to replacement rate levels. Rising costs of modern living (or at least income to living cost ratio) pushes those birth rates down even farther.

Incentivize unprotected sex.

People have to be hooking up in the first place to have unintended pregnancies. The religious right can try abortion bans all they want. They're even trying to go after some long-term forms of contraception, such as IUDs. It won't make much difference. Sexual activity (as defined by two people actually having sex together) is hitting new lows with younger adults. There is a lot of celibacy going around, whether it's deliberately self-imposed or just incidental.

From a planning standpoint, is it a good idea to have a development landlocked (cul-de-sac'd?) by an expressway? Even though the Grand Parkway interchange will carry most of the traffic from the community, having being the only access to reach other destinations, schools, groceries, work is bad planning.

It certainly would have been better if the toll road agency (or maybe TX DOT) built the frontage roads in that location first and then added the main lanes of the toll road later. That's normally how the process works. That would have provided basic surface street connectivity to these new housing subdivisions rapidly sprouting in that area. Instead, the toll road agency chose to build the toll lanes and dig drainage ditches where frontage roads could be located. That move will complicate the process of adding frontage roads later.

One decent feature about these housing subdivisions: they're sort of self-contained and limit the number of entrance/exit connections with arterial surface streets. They're not building these neighborhoods with a dumb street grid. That allows the traffic on the arterial streets to flow more freely. There are fewer traffic signals and intersections. The design feature will also make it easier to fill in gaps on surface streets, like the gap on Jack Road between Creekland Village and Dunham Pointe. They won't have to fill in a bunch of other surface street connections.

[kphoger]

People have to be hooking up in the first place to have unintended pregnancies ... There is a lot of celibacy going around, whether it's deliberately self-imposed or just incidental.

People have to look up from their phones once in a while to hook up.