NFL (2024 Season)

[thspfc]

Taking a closer look at which teams have the best playoff odds according to FiveThirtyEight...

What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary?

Assuming that FiveThirtyEight is doing what they normally do here, "disrespect", "feelings", and "thinking" aren't actually happening–the FiveThirtyEight MO is to build a math model that makes rankings like this and then dump data into it and publish the results. You can question the assumptions their model makes, but Nate Silver isn't ranking the Steelers any certain way because he personally thinks they suck.

I am aware of that, I just think that the model is really underrating the Steelers.

[webny99]

A bit more information about how the FiveThirtyEight NFL prediction model works can be found here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Taking a closer look at which teams have the best playoff odds according to FiveThirtyEight...

What is with the Steelers disrespect? I in terms of my feelings I really don't like the Steelers, but how could you possibly think that they have worse odds to make the playoffs than the freaking Broncos, who have 6-10 himself playing quarterback and a really bad secondary?

Assuming that FiveThirtyEight is doing what they normally do here, "disrespect", "feelings", and "thinking" aren't actually happening–the FiveThirtyEight MO is to build a math model that makes rankings like this and then dump data into it and publish the results. You can question the assumptions their model makes, but Nate Silver isn't ranking the Steelers any certain way because he personally thinks they suck.

I am aware of that, I just think that the model is really underrating the Steelers.

This is why the analytics stuff annoys me a bit, because it can't measure the human components of the game.

[Roadgeekteen]

You can never count out Tom Brady!

[jgb191]

I am willing to give our new head coach David Culley a chance with the Texans, but then again what choice do I have.....really I mean I will not jump to conclusions until the end of the year, but then again, my Texans are planning to get the top pick in next year's draft.  To me the NFL never existed until September 2002 when I finally found a team I can cheer for -- the Houston Texans.  Before then I never found a team to support, so football never interested me very much.  People ask me 'What about the Oilers?'  The Oilers were hardly ever mentioned (much less) marketed in South Texas, so I never knew Houston had an NFL team, and when I finally heard about the Oilers, there were just about to announce their relocation to Tennessee.

[thspfc]

You can never count out Tom Brady!

Literally nobody was ever counting him out last night. Especially against the Cowboys suspect pass defense.

But wow, what a game that was. Dak Prescott throws for 400+ yards for the 4th straight game that he hasn't been injured. He and Brady combined for 74 completions on 108 attempts for 782 yards and 7 touchdowns. Amari Cooper went crazy, with 13 catches for 139 yards and 2 TDs, amounting to 38 points for my fantasy team  . Finding a game with more prolific quarterback and wide receiver play than that would be a challenge. For the Cowboys it's hard to blame the loss on any one person or unit . . . yes, the defense got shredded by the Bucs passing game, but they also forced four turnovers, off which the Cowboys scored 12 points. The offense gained 451 yards which has become par for the course for them when Dak is healthy. They only turned it over once, but two missed field goals (albeit one of which was a 60 yarder) and a missed extra point kept a couple long drives scoreless.

Turnovers are great but for this defense to be good enough, they need more stops on 2nd and 3rd down. But they are young and it is the Super Bowl champs. It was mentioned a couple times on the broadcast that the Cowboys don't play a 2020 playoff team until week 11. That's a lot of time for the defense to shore up against mediocre/worse than mediocre competition.

[thspfc]

Not the worst record in the league, just a losing record. It's not comparable to Brady/Belichick because they never even flirted with .500. They never had less than 10 wins from 2003 to 2019. Meanwhile, Tomlin has three 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. Their luck in seasons where they are about average (which I think they will be this season) isn't going to last forever and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up below .500. I think 8-9 or 7-10 is a very realistic outcome.

Based on your logic, Brady and the Buccaneers should at the very least miss the playoffs, correct?

[webny99]

Not the worst record in the league, just a losing record. It's not comparable to Brady/Belichick because they never even flirted with .500. They never had less than 10 wins from 2003 to 2019. Meanwhile, Tomlin has three 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. Their luck in seasons where they are about average (which I think they will be this season) isn't going to last forever and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up below .500. I think 8-9 or 7-10 is a very realistic outcome.

Based on your logic, Brady and the Buccaneers should at the very least miss the playoffs, correct?

I don't see how predicting the Bucs fortunes has anything to do with my logic about the Steelers...
In any case, the Bucs will probably make the playoffs since it seems like the NFC South is theirs to lose. And I already predicted that they're going to lose in the wild card round.   

[thspfc]

Not the worst record in the league, just a losing record. It's not comparable to Brady/Belichick because they never even flirted with .500. They never had less than 10 wins from 2003 to 2019. Meanwhile, Tomlin has three 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. Their luck in seasons where they are about average (which I think they will be this season) isn't going to last forever and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up below .500. I think 8-9 or 7-10 is a very realistic outcome.

Based on your logic, Brady and the Buccaneers should at the very least miss the playoffs, correct?

I don't see how predicting the Bucs fortunes has anything to do with my logic about the Steelers...

Because you said that the Steelers are going to be under .500 in part because Tomlin is "due"  for a losing record. So Brady is "due"  to miss the playoffs, correct? And Russell Wilson is "due"  to go under .500, correct?

[webny99]

Based on your logic, Brady and the Buccaneers should at the very least miss the playoffs, correct?

I don't see how predicting the Bucs fortunes has anything to do with my logic about the Steelers...

Because you said that the Steelers are going to be under .500 in part because Tomlin is "due"  for a losing record. So Brady is "due"  to miss the playoffs, correct? And Russell Wilson is "due"  to go under .500, correct?

No, Brady and Wilson are clearly above-average quarterbacks. Mike Tomlin might be an above-average coach, but he has coached a lot of average teams. You might need to re-read what I said with emphasis added.

Not the worst record in the league, just a losing record. It's not comparable to Brady/Belichick because they never even flirted with .500. They never had less than 10 wins from 2003 to 2019. Meanwhile, Tomlin has three 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. Their luck in seasons where they are about average (which I think they will be this season) isn't going to last forever and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up below .500. I think 8-9 or 7-10 is a very realistic outcome.

[thspfc]

Based on your logic, Brady and the Buccaneers should at the very least miss the playoffs, correct?

I don't see how predicting the Bucs fortunes has anything to do with my logic about the Steelers...

Because you said that the Steelers are going to be under .500 in part because Tomlin is "due"  for a losing record. So Brady is "due"  to miss the playoffs, correct? And Russell Wilson is "due"  to go under .500, correct?

No, Brady and Wilson are clearly above-average quarterbacks. Mike Tomlin might be an above-average coach, but he has coached a lot of average teams. You might need to re-read what I said with emphasis added.

Not the worst record in the league, just a losing record. It's not comparable to Brady/Belichick because they never even flirted with .500. They never had less than 10 wins from 2003 to 2019. Meanwhile, Tomlin has three 8-8 seasons, a 9-7 season, and a 9-6-1 season. Their luck in seasons where they are about average (which I think they will be this season) isn't going to last forever and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up below .500. I think 8-9 or 7-10 is a very realistic outcome.

Mike Tomlin's 14 seasons as Steelers head coach, average seasons in italics
2007: 10-6, won division
2008: 12-4, Super Bowl champs
2009: 9-7
2010: 12-4, won division, Super Bowl runners up
2011: 12-4, second in division
2012: 8-8
2013: 8-8
2014: 11-5, won division
2015: 10-6, second in division, made divisional round
2016: 11-5, won division, made AFC title game
2017: 13-3, won division
2018: 9-6-1 (debatable as to whether that's average or above average; worth noting that almost all of their losses were nailbiters, and I know that margins of victory only matter when you want them to always matter)
2019: 8-8
2020: 12-4, won divison

So out of 14 seasons, Tomlin has had either 4 or 5 average seasons, depending on how you count 2018. That means that 65% of his teams have been above average.

If you're trying to argue that Tomlin might not be an above average coach, then you need to delete your internet. Yes, Brady and Russ are even more so above average, but it's extremely obvious that Tomlin also is. To put it this way, if Tomlin is not above average, then neither is John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, or Bruce Arians.

Maybe you need to reread what I said again though. While Brady has never really flirted with .500, he has flirted with missing the playoffs several times before, with New England/Tampa not clinching a playoff berth until after their week 16 game. So when we factor in this "luck" that you speak of, surely they're due to miss the playoffs, right? If Tomlin has been lucky to be above .500 on the four occasions that he was close to .500, then Brady has been lucky to make the playoffs on the several occasions that he has been close to missing them, correct?

[webny99]

If you're trying to argue that Tomlin might not be an above average coach, then you need to delete your internet. Yes, Brady and Russ are even more so above average, but it's extremely obvious that Tomlin also is. To put it this way, if Tomlin is not above average, then neither is John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, or Bruce Arians.

I am not trying to argue that Mike Tomlin isn't above average. He certainly is, but the coach is only a small part of the equation of a teams win-loss record. There's also the front office, the roster, and most importantly, the QB. My point is that it's kind of fluky that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, because any one of the 8-8 seasons could have just as easily been 7-9 and then the "no losing seasons" thing wouldn't be a talking point.

Maybe you need to reread what I said again though. While Brady has never really flirted with .500, he has flirted with missing the playoffs several times before, with New England/Tampa not clinching a playoff berth until after their week 16 game. So when we factor in this "luck" that you speak of, surely they're due to miss the playoffs, right? If Tomlin has been lucky to be above .500 on the four occasions that he was close to .500, then Brady has been lucky to make the playoffs on the several occasions that he has been close to missing them, correct?

I don't think there's anything flukey about Brady making the playoffs every year. You usually need 10 wins to make the playoffs, and he has led his team to at least 10 wins every year from 2003 to 2020, except the year that he was injured and the Patriots went 11-5 and still missed the playoffs - now that was kind of flukey.

Also, whether a team makes the playoffs isn't really directly comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out after the twists and turns of the season. That's luck.

[thspfc]

If you're trying to argue that Tomlin might not be an above average coach, then you need to delete your internet. Yes, Brady and Russ are even more so above average, but it's extremely obvious that Tomlin also is. To put it this way, if Tomlin is not above average, then neither is John Harbaugh, Pete Carroll, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, or Bruce Arians.

I am not trying to argue that Mike Tomlin isn't above average. He certainly is, but the coach is only a small part of the equation of a teams win-loss record. There's also the front office, the roster, and most importantly, the QB. My point is that it's kind of fluky that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, because any one of the 8-8 seasons could have just as easily been 7-9 and then the "no losing seasons" thing wouldn't be a talking point.

They could have just as easily been 9-7 for that matter.

Maybe you need to reread what I said again though. While Brady has never really flirted with .500, he has flirted with missing the playoffs several times before, with New England/Tampa not clinching a playoff berth until after their week 16 game. So when we factor in this "luck" that you speak of, surely they're due to miss the playoffs, right? If Tomlin has been lucky to be above .500 on the four occasions that he was close to .500, then Brady has been lucky to make the playoffs on the several occasions that he has been close to missing them, correct?

I don't think there's anything flukey about Brady making the playoffs every year. You usually need 10 wins to make the playoffs, and he has led his team to at least 10 wins every year from 2003 to 2020, except the year that he was injured and the Patriots went 11-5 and still missed the playoffs - now that was kind of flukey.

I don't think there's anything flukey about Tomlin being at or above .500 every year. You usually need 8 wins to be above .500, and he has led his team to at least 8 wins every year from 2007 to 2020.

Also, whether a team makes the playoffs isn't really directly comparable to whether they are above .500. Part of making the playoffs is getting the wins when you need them to get in, which Brady/Belichick always found a way to do. That's skill. Being above .500 or below .500 is just however things shake out after the twists and turns of the season. That's luck.

I don't even know what this paragraph is supposed to mean. Does anyone else understand this nonsense? Like, wins are important, until you don't have quite enough of them, at which point they come down to luck? Are you assuming that every single team that goes 8-8 is predetermined to not be making the playoffs from the start of they year, and is therefore just spinning a wheel to decide whether they win or lose?

I honestly might make this my signature for the sake of how terrible it is. Such an awful take.

[webny99]

^ Goodness gracious, the line in your signature is terrible. I can't even imagine dreaming up that nonsense. You should at least credit whoever came up with it, or people might think you came up with it yourself.

[thspfc]

Prediction for every game today . . .

Jaguars 24, Texans 21
Washington 23, Chargers 17
Seahawks 34, Colts 27
Panthers 30, Jets 17
Vikings 35, Bengals 20
Titans 36, Cardinals 34
49ers 31, Lions 7
Bills 24, Steelers 19
Falcons 44, Eagles 14
Chiefs 48, Browns 21
Packers 28, Saints 17
Giants 19, Broncos 18
Dolphins 23, Patriots 21
Rams 21, Bears 13

[NWI_Irish96]

As a Bears fan I'd be encouraged to only lose to the Rams by 8.

[thspfc]

Well, well, well . . .

Steelers 23, Bills 16

[thspfc]

I predicted that the Bills would win, but I'm certainly not complaining . . .

[thspfc]

Vikings/Bengals is on trajectory for a tie. Seems pretty fitting considering that the Vikings and Bengals are two teams that seem to play in tie games a disproportionate number of times.

The Lions might be about to finish one of the greatest comebacks of all time.

Turns out that the Texans aren't as bad as most people think, as they've already tied or exceeded the win total a lot of people expected.

[thspfc]

I'd say that win for the Niners is not the closest feeling that you can get to a loss, because their offense was really good. But yikes. You just can't get outscored 23-3 in the last 20 minutes against one of the league's worst teams. It's "garbage time", until it's not.

[webny99]

I predicted that the Bills would win, but I'm certainly not complaining . . .

Because it's fun when webny99 is salty?  I really wasn't that shocked, as the Bills were "due" for a loss to the Steelers. Ultimately the Steelers reached their top gear for one quarter and the Bills didn't, and that's about all there is to it. It's too bad Buffalo can't open against the Jets every year, but on to next week.

[webny99]

Turns out that the Texans aren't as bad as most people think, as they've already tied or exceeded the win total a lot of people expected.

What I find even more hilarious is that the Titans and Colts lost too, so the Texans are all alone atop the AFC South. 

Vikings/Bengals is on trajectory for a tie. Seems pretty fitting considering that the Vikings and Bengals are two teams that seem to play in tie games a disproportionate number of times.

... and the Bengals finish it off with a FG with just a few seconds left in overtime. Ugly, but still a much-needed win for that franchise and their fans to start the season.

[Roadgeekteen]

Did Dalvin Cook fumble?

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Did Dalvin Cook fumble?

Of course I'll say no, but it was one of those calls that the booth was going to stay with the original call.

If the Vikings didn't play like shit in the first half, it doesn't matter anyway.

[1995hoo]

Apparently a toilet drain line burst at FedEx Field today, pouring foul water into a section of stands occupied by fans. Gives new meaning to the Redskins being a shitshow.