The Car of 2050

[kernals12]

The automobile is one of man's greatest inventions. It has turned the once arduous experience of travel into an enjoyable one. And much to the chagrin of urbanists and environmentalists who would rather we go back to walking, biking, or taking public transit, more and more cars are coming onto the road. So what can we expect from our cars from the middle of this century?

The biggest change will come when cars start driving themselves. This will not just allow us to scroll on our phones while we go anywhere, it will resolve a whole host of issues. The ability of cars to "talk" to each other will allow them to avoid accidents and form into train-like platoons that will double the capacity of highways. The annoyance of parking will be eliminated: your car will find a space after dropping you off at your destination. And with the ability to park in stacks and without the need to have space to open and close doors, we'll be able to fit twice as many cars in a parking lot of any given size. But for many trips, on-site parking won't be needed at all; your car will just go home.

The second biggest change will be the replacement of the internal combustion engine with battery electric power. By 2050, we probably will have perfected lithium-air batteries, which, theoretically, offer the same energy density as gasoline. One thing that's seldom discussed about electric motors is that they don't face the same power-efficiency trade off as internal combustion. A motor with 400 horsepower will use almost the same amount of energy at a given speed as one with 40 horsepower. Differences in 0-60 times between econoboxes and hypercars will be negligible.

But the improvements to the motor car will go further than this. I expect that the car of tomorrow will cost thousands of dollars rather than tens of thousands. The same AI advances that will enable cars to drive themselves will also allow them to be built with almost no human labor. The next opportunity for cost reductions comes from on-board electronics. A Deloitte study from 2017 estimated that a staggering 40% of the cost of a new car is from electronics. The replacement of today's complicated photolithography semiconductor production methods with nanoimprint lithography or even inkjet printing would dramatically slash that cost. The final opportunity for cost reductions comes from the substitution of steel for new alloys and polymers that are stronger and lighter and can be molded as easily as plastic. That would mean many components could be produced as one-piece rather than multiple pieces that have to be welded or bolted together.

Sit inside the car of tomorrow and you will notice lots and lots of extra interior space. With the elimination of the engine, transmission, driveshaft, differentials, and axles, there will be more room for people and luggage. Lots of people will still insist on driving their own cars. The steering wheel will no longer be attached to a mechanical steering column. Instead, it will be a simple electronic switch that will send a signal to a computer that tells the wheels to turn. With the ability to dynamically vary the steering ratio with speed, it will be possible to have the wheel only turn 180 degrees from lock to lock without making the car overly twitchy at highway speeds. With that, the wheel can be replaced by a yoke that doesn't block the view of the gauges and can retract into the dashboard when not in use. Lexus already sells cars with such a feature, although theirs doesn't retract into the dashboard. With all this extra room, I think cars will begin serving as extra living space. You could sit in your car when it's parked and use it as an office or a den. Facilitating this will be seats made of lightweight materials that can be easily removed.

Seeing out will be a lot easier. New types of glass, such as the one recently discovered at the University of Pennsylvania dubbed Lionglass, will allow windows to act as a structural material. That means thick pillars won't be needed to meet rollover standards. Glass roofs will likely be the norm, giving 80% of the fun of a convertible without the drawbacks. And you don't need to worry about your car's interior roasting when you leave it parked in the sun, the glass will be dimmable.

Forget about flat tires. Non-pneumatic tires that use deformable spokes rather than compressed air are already being trialled in limited commercial application. That obviously saves you the annoyance of fixing flats and eliminates the danger caused by blowouts, but has other advantages. You no longer need a spare tire, giving you more trunk space. You can make the tire compliant vertically but stiff horizontally, giving you better ride *and* handling at the same time. You can put holes in the tread to allow air and water to pass through, greatly reducing noise and eliminating the risk of hydroplaning. And you won't have to remember to keep your tires inflated.

Car handling will be greatly improved. The shock absorber will become a linear motor/generator. It will capture the energy expended when going over bumps that is currently wasted as heat and, when cornering, will stiffen to eliminate body lean. Steer-by-wire systems will allow all 4 wheels to turn at extreme angles, improving manueverability at low speeds while improving stability at high speeds.

Boxy cars will be aerodynamic. As your car travels through the air, it leaves in its wake an area of low pressure that sucks you backwards, slowing you down. Auto engineers have done their best to style their cars to reduce drag but they have to balance that against other factors; a teardrop shaped car would be extremely aerodynamic but it would have little interior space and look ugly. But there's another way; by shooting jets of compressed air behind the car, the low pressure zone can be eliminated. This is especially important as SUVs with large frontal areas come to dominate the auto market and the popularity of retro-styled boxy models like the Jeep Wrangler and Ford Bronco.

I for one am excited about how new technology will make cars cheaper and more pleasant to own and drive. The future is certainly bright. And if you're skeptical, remember that 2050 is just over 26 years from today. 26 years ago from today puts us in 1998. Back then, people could hardly dream of cars that could keep within their own lanes on highways, park themselves, and have 7,8, 9, or even 10 gears for maximum efficiency and performance.

[LilianaUwU]

2050 is just over 26 years from today. 26 years ago from today puts us in 1998.

thanks, now I feel old

[Scott5114]

The same AI advances that will enable cars to drive themselves will also allow them to be built with almost no human labor.

Out of curiosity, are you proficient in any programming languages?

[Rothman]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

[Max Rockatansky]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

[Bruce]

At current pace, the car of 2050 will be an eighteen-wheeler that measures efficiency in pedestrians maimed per minute.

It will give you a nanny beep if you don't feed it enough limbs.

[jeffandnicole]

With all this extra room, I think cars will begin serving as extra living space. You could sit in your car when it's parked and use it as an office or a den. Facilitating this will be seats made of lightweight materials that can be easily removed.

Can't wait to celebrate Thanksgiving Dinner with a family of 16 eating in a Kia.

[Max Rockatansky]

With all this extra room, I think cars will begin serving as extra living space. You could sit in your car when it's parked and use it as an office or a den. Facilitating this will be seats made of lightweight materials that can be easily removed.

Can't wait to celebrate Thanksgiving Dinner with a family of 16 eating in a Kia.

I'm hoping that by 2050 Kia will just have fully rebranded to Nine Inch Nails.  They already ripped off the logo, might as well go all in.

[kernals12]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

[Max Rockatansky]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

Never even heard of the former and I've only heard of the latter from meme pages.  So yes, quite the step down from the Mr. Fusion, hydration machine, hover boards and practical flying cars I was promised in the 1980s. 

[Scott5114]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

The neural network models used in modern AI are not a panacea. It's important to remember that what is popularly called AI is not actually intelligence operating the same way that human intelligence does. While they work in some limited circumstances, modern AI algorithms are limited to probabilistic prediction and do not have the capability to handle anything novel that isn't a synthesis of information already in the training corpus. Asking for one to handle anything that wasn't included in the training corpus generally causes them to fall down in a pretty spectacular fashion. Using one in a safety-critical application like full self-driving introduces an unacceptable level of risk in a situation when the machine encounters a blind spot in the training corpus. And such a blind spot is nigh-inevitable—there is not enough money in the world to pay for the human labor that would be needed to compile a corpus consisting of every possible situation that may arise on the road.

This is why I inquired upthread as to your programming experience. It would seem you intentionally dodged the question, since answering in the negative would underscore your unfamiliarity with what is actually going on "under the hood" with modern AI, as well as what is and isn't generally possible with software.

[GaryV]

But the improvements to the motor car will go further than this. I expect that the car of tomorrow will cost thousands of dollars rather than tens of thousands. The same AI advances that will enable cars to drive themselves will also allow them to be built with almost no human labor.

Since all the "human laborers" will be laid off, who will have the money to buy these vehicles, no matter the cost? You can bet that if auto manufacturers can manage without labor, so will most other industries.

[formulanone]

The OP seriously does not understand the lethargy of the automotive industry and the amount of lobbying that goes on to preserve their status quo. I thought like this and and hoped for a future where technology made things cheaper, but it's really just slow little gains and making our cars an extension of our little cell phones with dozens of nanny devices. The bleeding edge stuff goes into the vehicles costing roughly half the price of real estate, and then they get to be the beta testers, or it becomes an evolutionary cul-de-sac.

But the improvements to the motor car will go further than this. I expect that the car of tomorrow will cost thousands of dollars rather than tens of thousands. The same AI advances that will enable cars to drive themselves will also allow them to be built with almost no human labor.

Since all the "human laborers" will be laid off, who will have the money to buy these vehicles, no matter the cost? You can bet that if auto manufacturers can manage without labor, so will most other industries.

We'll be toiling in the rare earth metal mines to feed our masters, since they'll become too bourgeoisie to want to do that messy task anymore.

With all this extra room, I think cars will begin serving as extra living space. You could sit in your car when it's parked and use it as an office or a den. Facilitating this will be seats made of lightweight materials that can be easily removed.

Can't wait to celebrate Thanksgiving Dinner with a family of 16 eating in a Kia.

I'm hoping that by 2050 Kia will just have fully rebranded to Nine Inch Nails.  They already ripped off the logo, might as well go all in.

Why stop there? The first EP title is prophetic...

At current pace, the car of 2050 will be an eighteen-wheeler that measures efficiency in pedestrians maimed per minute.

It will give you a nanny beep if you don't feed it enough limbs.

Soon automobiles will be ten times larger and only the five richest kings of the Middle East can afford them. I also predict these vehicles of the future will have larger intake openings to eat humans, pets, and not just bikes. But deer strikes and carcasses will be a thing of the past. Why suffer with a mere 17-foot vehicle for going to the lifestyle enhancement center and megachurch, when something roughly the size of a locomotive or Airbus will take you there in style over that seven-mile drive?

[SP Cook]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

THIS!!

The purpose of science is to discover what is true, not to invent whatever we wish to be true.  The idea that by 2050 or 10000 years after that we will have "perfected" this or that battery or other technology, is not science.  It is speculation, and uninformed speculation at that.  It is certainly possible that everything there is to know about batteries is known.  That is science. 

[GaryV]

What I find interesting about all the "futurama" kind of predictions is that no one, no where, not ever, predicted that we would be walking around with so much computing power in our pockets. Picture phones were a predicted thing, but they were big boxes that sat on the counter. And we still don't have flying cars in mass production.

[jlam]

The car of the future:

[hotdogPi]

I expect flying cars to be drones that are able to carry the weight of a human.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_drone

[kernals12]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

Never even heard of the former and I've only heard of the latter from meme pages.  So yes, quite the step down from the Mr. Fusion, hydration machine, hover boards and practical flying cars I was promised in the 1980s.

Wegovy is an anti-obesity drug that may also cure a whole host of other addictions.

[kernals12]

What I find interesting about all the "futurama" kind of predictions is that no one, no where, not ever, predicted that we would be walking around with so much computing power in our pockets. Picture phones were a predicted thing, but they were big boxes that sat on the counter. And we still don't have flying cars in mass production.

We've had flying cars since 1939, they're called helicopters

[kernals12]

But the improvements to the motor car will go further than this. I expect that the car of tomorrow will cost thousands of dollars rather than tens of thousands. The same AI advances that will enable cars to drive themselves will also allow them to be built with almost no human labor.

Since all the "human laborers" will be laid off, who will have the money to buy these vehicles, no matter the cost? You can bet that if auto manufacturers can manage without labor, so will most other industries.

Read up on the luddite fallacy.

[kernals12]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

The neural network models used in modern AI are not a panacea. It's important to remember that what is popularly called AI is not actually intelligence operating the same way that human intelligence does. While they work in some limited circumstances, modern AI algorithms are limited to probabilistic prediction and do not have the capability to handle anything novel that isn't a synthesis of information already in the training corpus. Asking for one to handle anything that wasn't included in the training corpus generally causes them to fall down in a pretty spectacular fashion. Using one in a safety-critical application like full self-driving introduces an unacceptable level of risk in a situation when the machine encounters a blind spot in the training corpus. And such a blind spot is nigh-inevitable—there is not enough money in the world to pay for the human labor that would be needed to compile a corpus consisting of every possible situation that may arise on the road.

This is why I inquired upthread as to your programming experience. It would seem you intentionally dodged the question, since answering in the negative would underscore your unfamiliarity with what is actually going on "under the hood" with modern AI, as well as what is and isn't generally possible with software.

Driverless cars don't need to be 100% safe, they just need to be noticeably safer than human drivers.

[kalvado]

But the improvements to the motor car will go further than this. I expect that the car of tomorrow will cost thousands of dollars rather than tens of thousands. The same AI advances that will enable cars to drive themselves will also allow them to be built with almost no human labor.

Since all the "human laborers" will be laid off, who will have the money to buy these vehicles, no matter the cost? You can bet that if auto manufacturers can manage without labor, so will most other industries.

Read up on the luddite fallacy.

work week reduction is probably on order. It's difficult in US with expensive benefits attached to full time paycheck though.
but trend towards shorter amount of time to support one's living is pretty solid over the history.

[Max Rockatansky]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

Never even heard of the former and I've only heard of the latter from meme pages.  So yes, quite the step down from the Mr. Fusion, hydration machine, hover boards and practical flying cars I was promised in the 1980s.

Wegovy is an anti-obesity drug that may also cure a whole host of other addictions.

Why am I not surprised that you of all people suggest things like medical treatments first over good dietary habits and exercise.

[kernals12]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

Never even heard of the former and I've only heard of the latter from meme pages.  So yes, quite the step down from the Mr. Fusion, hydration machine, hover boards and practical flying cars I was promised in the 1980s.

Wegovy is an anti-obesity drug that may also cure a whole host of other addictions.

Why am I not surprised that you of all people suggest things like medical treatments first over good dietary habits and exercise.

Why am I not surprised that you of all people mock a scientific breakthrough that will increase the quality of life for billions of people?

[Max Rockatansky]

I remember futurist crap from the 1980s.  Same bat time, same bat channel...

Which more or less was just a rehash of 1950s futurism.  I did enjoy thinking 2015 was going to be way more interesting than it eventually turned out as a kid though.

It's now 2023 and we have Wegovy and ChatGPT. Is it so hard to believe in rapid scientific progress?

Never even heard of the former and I've only heard of the latter from meme pages.  So yes, quite the step down from the Mr. Fusion, hydration machine, hover boards and practical flying cars I was promised in the 1980s.

Wegovy is an anti-obesity drug that may also cure a whole host of other addictions.

Why am I not surprised that you of all people suggest things like medical treatments first over good dietary habits and exercise.

Why am I not surprised that you of all people mock a scientific breakthrough that will increase the quality of life for billions of people?

Nah, I just enjoy mocking the infantile adult who advocates global warming because he can't stop tripping over sidewalks during the winter.