NFL (2024 Season)

[Henry]

Just goes to show you, the Draft is simply rolling the dice and nothing more.  How many times was Tom Brady passed over the year he was drafted?

Just to compare, Peyton Manning was the top draft pick 25 years ago, and everybody was predicting him to be the GOAT. But then, when the 199th overall pick in the 2000 Draft began to flourish, they were beginning to forget about their Chosen One from two years before. However, Peyton's had a respectable career, with a Super Bowl championship in Indianapolis and another in Denver, and the latter ending his career, which TB12 wishes he had. As they say, don't judge a book by its cover.

(BTW, Tom Brady is Steph Curry to Peyton Manning's LeBron James)

[webny99]

I could have sworn that I heard (or saw) somewhere that they would clinch by beating the Bills last Sunday. But that must have been wrong. It's sort of a moot point anyway. To me, it seemed a little early for playoff clinching since every team has at least 5 games to play (6 for those who have already had byes).

If you follow any of the Eagles Facebook fan/group pages, there's always a lot of bad info that gets passed around, and probably repeated elsewhere.

Something like that must have popped up in my FB feed.

The NYT's NFL Playoff Calculator was briefly showing the Eagles had clinched a spot. It's since been revised to >99%, but at this point, it's little more than a mathematical technicality.

[tmoore952]

I could have sworn that I heard (or saw) somewhere that they would clinch by beating the Bills last Sunday. But that must have been wrong. It's sort of a moot point anyway. To me, it seemed a little early for playoff clinching since every team has at least 5 games to play (6 for those who have already had byes).

If you follow any of the Eagles Facebook fan/group pages, there's always a lot of bad info that gets passed around, and probably repeated elsewhere.

Something like that must have popped up in my FB feed.

The NYT's NFL Playoff Calculator was briefly showing the Eagles had clinched a spot. It's since been revised to >99%, but at this point, it's little more than a mathematical technicality.

There must be some weird combination (I'm guessing involving ties), that keeps it from being 100%.

I assume these calculation algorithms take into account things like two other contending teams playing each other, in which case some combination of a loss (a full loss for one team, or (if a tie) a 1/2 loss for each team) will occur (or said another way -- both teams can't win).

I remember having to take that into account many years ago when figuring out magic numbers for baseball teams in the simple pre-1995 years when you had to win the division to be in, if you didn't you were out. That was a lot simpler than football now -- one, baseball has no ties --- and two, football has all sorts of tiebreaking hierarchy rules (division games most important, intraconference less so, interconference even less so, etc. and other things which I don't know).

[jeffandnicole]

I could have sworn that I heard (or saw) somewhere that they would clinch by beating the Bills last Sunday. But that must have been wrong. It's sort of a moot point anyway. To me, it seemed a little early for playoff clinching since every team has at least 5 games to play (6 for those who have already had byes).

If you follow any of the Eagles Facebook fan/group pages, there's always a lot of bad info that gets passed around, and probably repeated elsewhere.

Something like that must have popped up in my FB feed.

The NYT's NFL Playoff Calculator was briefly showing the Eagles had clinched a spot. It's since been revised to >99%, but at this point, it's little more than a mathematical technicality.

There must be some weird combination (I'm guessing involving ties), that keeps it from being 100%.

Basically, the teams in the scenarios above are the reason why they haven't clinched.

If as of last week, the Rams, Packers, Lions, Falcons and Saints all had one more loss than they currently have, the Eagles would've clinched last week.

[webny99]

No one does less with more than Brandon Staley.

Frank Reich is not the coach I thought would be fired today.

Yikes. Yet another sign of bad ownership in Carolina. I feel for Reich. He was nowhere near their biggest problem and was given no chance to succeed. No reason not to let a bad season play out other than just change for the sake of change.

He got fired because Bryce Young has, thus far, been a bust. The only real reason. If the front office bungled the pick, he paid for it.

But it was the owner David Tepper himself that bungled the pick. Reports are that Reich didn't even want to pick Bryce Young, and though he was talked into it by draft day, it was the owner's decision.

Unfortunately, owners aren't about to fire themselves.

Not to keep harping on this, but after hearing a few snippets from Tepper... he is not a competent NFL owner. The list of terrible organizational decisions he has made or had a hand in is growing longer by the month. He seems to have no comprehension that, while money and power can do a lot of things, stability is an integral part of on-field success in an NFL organization, and stability starts with ownership. As a new owner, creating a stable environment means having self-awareness about your roster, having patience with a new coaching staff, and giving young players a chance to develop, and Tepper has failed miserably in all three areas. Keep letting impatience reign, and it becomes a vicious cycle of candidates inheriting a mess, performing poorly, having no chance to succeed, and getting fired, which then becomes a strong deterrent to future candidates.

[thspfc]

Cowboys
Colts
Jets
Lions
Broncos
Chargers
Steelers
Dolphins
Bucs
49ers
Browns
Chiefs
Jaguars

[epzik8]

I'm all-in on another Joe Flacco comeback arc.

[webny99]

Post-week 12 check in:

8 teams are playoff locks.
Ravens, Chiefs, Jaguars, Dolphins // Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Cowboys

10 teams are fork locks.
Jets, Patriots, Bengals, Titans, Raiders // Commanders, Giants, Bears, Panthers, Cardinals

14 teams are in the hunt for the final 6 playoff spots.
Bills, Browns, Steelers, Colts, Texans, Broncos, ~Chargers // Vikings, Packers, Bucs, Saints, Falcons, Rams, Seahawks

[epzik8]

I had a dream last night that the Patriots backed into the playoffs under Bailey Zappe's leadership and amid the collapses of other AFC teams

[Big John]

^^ When I see "back into the playoffs" I see a team that had a good record prior to the home stretch make the playoffs despite having a poor record at the end of the season

[hobsini2]

If I hadn't said it before, fuck Tom Brady. 3 of those SB wins were because the opposing coach made shitty decisions at the end of the game.

[thspfc]

If I hadn't said it before, fuck Tom Brady. 3 of those SB wins were because the opposing coach made shitty decisions at the end of the game.

BREAKING: per sources, the NFL has rescinded three of the Patriots' six championships due to the other team making mistakes. The league will conduct a further review of all mistakes made by football teams in the Super Bowl era to determine which other championships should be vacated.

[Ted$8roadFan]

The New England Patriots lost 0-6 to the San Diego, er. Los Angeles Chargers 0-6 to fall to 2-10 on the season. That lottery pick is looking more attractive.

[epzik8]

People on my screen on Commanders socials really acting like there was no chance in hell for Tua to throw for almost 300 yards against us and that we're not shaking up our defense right now. Gotta love it.

[hobsini2]

If I hadn't said it before, fuck Tom Brady. 3 of those SB wins were because the opposing coach made shitty decisions at the end of the game.

BREAKING: per sources, the NFL has rescinded three of the Patriots' six championships due to the other team making mistakes. The league will conduct a further review of all mistakes made by football teams in the Super Bowl era to determine which other championships should be vacated.

Love da snark my frient.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

While it's tiebreaker-based, despte two ugly losses in a row for the Vikings, they've actually moved *up* to the 6 seed. Sums up how the middle of the NFC is.

[webny99]

While it's tiebreaker-based, despte two ugly losses in a row for the Vikings, they've actually moved *up* to the 6 seed. Sums up how the middle of the NFC is.

There's as many NFC teams at .500 (four) as above .500 (four). Meaning the other eight teams all have losing records. So yeah, about as messy as it gets.

[jgb191]

If I remember correctly, DeMeco Ryans was initially invited to Denver for the Broncos Head Coach interview to which DeMeco shot down the invitation and then successfully persuaded the Texans to hire him and here we are!  DeMeco led the Texans snapping the Broncos five-game winning streak today.

And this is a real head-scratcher:  Texans beat the Steelers earlier this fall, yet the Steelers are ahead of us despite identical 7-5 records???  Steelers are #5th seed and Texans are #8th despite the Texans winning this tiebreaker due to the Texans 30-6 victory over the Steelers?  Anybody care to explain this one?

[webny99]

And this is a real head-scratcher:  Texans beat the Steelers earlier this fall, yet the Steelers are ahead of us despite identical 7-5 records???  Steelers are #5th seed and Texans are #8th despite the Texans winning this tiebreaker due to the Texans 30-6 victory over the Steelers?  Anybody care to explain this one?

It's a bit complicated, but tiebreaks involving three or more teams are done within the division first, and the Colts have the tiebreaker over the Texans, so they are the South team that advances to further tiebreakers.

The official NFL rules are here, but this Wikipedia table is my go-to; I find it much easier to understand because it's updated with the real-life scenarios and team names, rather than generic rules lingo.

[TheHighwayMan3561]

If I remember correctly, DeMeco Ryans was initially invited to Denver for the Broncos Head Coach interview to which DeMeco shot down the invitation and then successfully persuaded the Texans to hire him and here we are!  DeMeco led the Texans snapping the Broncos five-game winning streak today.

And this is a real head-scratcher:  Texans beat the Steelers earlier this fall, yet the Steelers are ahead of us despite identical 7-5 records???  Steelers are #5th seed and Texans are #8th despite the Texans winning this tiebreaker due to the Texans 30-6 victory over the Steelers?  Anybody care to explain this one?

This gets into the more complicated nature of 3+ way ties. There's currently a 4-way tie between Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indy, and Houston.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)

Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second and third Wild Card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to Step 2). In situations in which three teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild Card berth.

Basically it's a stepladder of progressive tiebreaking that even though Team A may have a direct tiebreaker over Team D, they don't have one over Team B or C which was broken first that also involves if they're teams in the same division (which in this case is 2 and 2).

The good news is Houston will have its chances to earn H2H breakers over Cleveland and negate the H2H of the Colts beating them still.

[tchafe1978]

Great win for the Packers over the Chefs! I was sweating it out at the end there but the Packers held on.

[mgk920]

And with the Packers' win over the Chefs, if the season ended with this weekend they would be in the playoffs.   

The TV guys did put an interesting graphic up during tonight's game, at this point in this, his first full season starting with the Packers, Jordan Love has nearly identical stats to what Aaron Rodgers had at the same point in his first full season starting with the Packers.

Mike

[Big John]

I was at the game and the only celebrity they recognized being there was Tony Shalhoub.  Heard on the radio there were 2 other celebrities there.

[mgk920]

I was at the game and the only celebrity they recognized being there was Tony Shalhoub.  Heard on the radio there were 2 other celebrities there.

Taylor Swift was there, and also the network TV guys showed an Olympian in the crowd.

Mike

[triplemultiplex]

I think what we're seeing in Green Bay is a bunch of young players starting to come into their own in this winning streak.  If they can keep it up, the remaining schedule has a LOT of winnable games on it.