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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 95237 times)

US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #775 on: July 07, 2021, 01:06:04 AM »

My bet is it won’t be a hurricane at this time when the final report eventually comes out. NHC is always generous with intensity estimates of weakening systems because they have to be careful with messaging - you don’t want people thinking “oh it’s only a tropical storm now I don’t need to worry about it” when the reality is there’s very little difference between a 70mph TS and a 75mph hurricane.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #776 on: July 07, 2021, 07:59:48 PM »

My bet is it won’t be a hurricane at this time when the final report eventually comes out. NHC is always generous with intensity estimates of weakening systems because they have to be careful with messaging - you don’t want people thinking “oh it’s only a tropical storm now I don’t need to worry about it” when the reality is there’s very little difference between a 70mph TS and a 75mph hurricane.
I'd say that was the case in the Gulf. It definitely was a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, Barbados reported sustained hurricane-force winds.
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CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #777 on: August 15, 2021, 05:40:53 PM »

The tracks of Grace and the 1900 Galveston Hurricane are more than a little similar IMO... I've got a bad feeling Houston is in the crosshairs. The waters Grace might be entering soon are hot, and there ain't that much wind shear, either. If it stays south of the Caribbean islands, I think there's a real shot the Texas coast could be seeing a major hurricane this time next week.

Meanwhile TS Fred is coming towards the Florida Panhandle.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #778 on: August 17, 2021, 04:32:37 PM »

Grace is now aiming lower on the Yucatan; Texas is outside the cones for now.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #779 on: August 17, 2021, 05:03:49 PM »

I might get brushed by the remnants of Fred.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #780 on: August 17, 2021, 06:14:45 PM »

I might get brushed by the remnants of Fred.

That's what she said.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #781 on: August 18, 2021, 03:19:25 PM »

I might get brushed by the remnants of Fred.

That's what she said.

That's what Wilma said. :-D
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #782 on: August 18, 2021, 08:48:29 PM »

Models have shifted Tropical Storm Henri significantly westward and the storm may impact southeastern Massachusetts and maybe Maine early next week. Was surprised when looking at the NWS forecast for New Bedford, MA when "tropical storm conditions possible" is forecast for Sunday.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #783 on: August 23, 2021, 10:38:08 PM »

Henri made landfall in the northeast as a Category "Dispatch Jim Cantore" storm.

The remnants of Grace reorganized in the Pacific to form Tropical Storm Marty.

Currently, there are three waves the NHC is keeping an eye on for a possible "Ida," though none of them show any indication of immediate tropical cyclone formation.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #784 on: August 24, 2021, 10:38:42 AM »

Henri made landfall in the northeast as a Category "Dispatch Jim Cantore" storm.
I always feel bad when I see a storm stall out over land like Harvey did. Luckily New England escaped the worst.

Currently, there are three waves the NHC is keeping an eye on for a possible "Ida," though none of them show any indication of immediate tropical cyclone formation.
The one in the eastern Caribbean has me the most concerned, as some of the forecast models bring it up into Texas as either a high-end tropical storm or a hurricane.

Here are some sites I've been using to track storms (using #stormname on Twitter is also a great way to get information on tropical systems):

Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
Weathernerds: https://www.weathernerds.org
Mike's Weather Page: https://spaghettimodels.com
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #785 on: August 24, 2021, 05:19:00 PM »

I always feel bad when I see a storm stall out over land like Harvey did. Luckily New England escaped the worst.

At one point Saturday, the Henri forecast was ugly for my location in CT, made moreso by virtue of my wife and I having been in Memphis for a week-and-a-half (my father's funeral and associated chores).   The worst forecast called for hurricane-force gusts even up to Bradley Airport, and I had notices to expect a weeks-long power outage.

We got in Saturday evening to find the gas stations sold out and well over a hundred cherry-pickers staged at one of BDL's remote parking lots.  We ended up planning to just take the evening to drop my antennas (ham radio) and do laundry, and then to bug out for upstate New York in the morning.

Then we woke up Sunday....and the forecast was different.   We lost power for only a few hours and didn't see any worse wind than a 45mph gust.   The rain was impressive though; looks like we got 4½ inches total for both passes of Henri.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #786 on: August 24, 2021, 06:26:47 PM »

I always feel bad when I see a storm stall out over land like Harvey did. Luckily New England escaped the worst.

At one point Saturday, the Henri forecast was ugly for my location in CT, made moreso by virtue of my wife and I having been in Memphis for a week-and-a-half (my father's funeral and associated chores).   The worst forecast called for hurricane-force gusts even up to Bradley Airport, and I had notices to expect a weeks-long power outage.

We got in Saturday evening to find the gas stations sold out and well over a hundred cherry-pickers staged at one of BDL's remote parking lots.  We ended up planning to just take the evening to drop my antennas (ham radio) and do laundry, and then to bug out for upstate New York in the morning.

Then we woke up Sunday....and the forecast was different.   We lost power for only a few hours and didn't see any worse wind than a 45mph gust.   The rain was impressive though; looks like we got 4½ inches total for both passes of Henri.

Monday was interesting—I woke up to quiet, calm weather, despite the storm having "arrived" well before then, followed by torrential rain for much of the afternoon. Turns out that by Monday morning the storm was actually centered pretty much directly over me (I gather it went as far west as the Catskills at one point), and the pleasant morning weather was basically the "eye" of the storm, such as it was.
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CoreySamson

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #787 on: August 26, 2021, 01:20:15 PM »

Prediction: A Cat 4 will be in the Gulf by Sunday. Luckily the models have shifted TD 9 (soon to be Ida) away from the Houston area.

On another note, Houston's been dodging a lot of hurricanes lately:

Grace (2021): was predicted for around a day to be a hurricane off the Texas coast
Delta (2020): narrow miss to the east
Beta (2020): was projected to be a hurricane initially, and a proficient rainmaker (basically Harvey-lite), but fizzled
Laura and Marco (2020): both were projected to hit the Texas coast at some point, Laura probably would have if not for Marco
Hanna (2020): miss to the south
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #788 on: August 27, 2021, 05:14:54 PM »

Prediction: A Cat 5 will be in the Gulf by Sunday.
Based on what I'm seeing, I think Ida has a chance to be worse for New Orleans than both Camille and Katrina. Shelters and hospitals won't have much capacity due to COVID; apparently several of New Orleans' water pumps are not working and a floodgate is down for maintenance; and forecasters and local officials aren't really stressing the urgency of this to the public. What's more, nearly every potential variable is working in Ida's favor, and it's supposed to slow down, dumping over a foot of rain on already-soaked southern Louisiana.

It's almost enough for me to wonder if New Orleans will go the path of Indianola.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #789 on: August 27, 2021, 05:47:05 PM »

My brother lives in New Orleans and just e-mailed to say he’s on his way to Shreveport.
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #790 on: August 27, 2021, 05:59:53 PM »

NHC is currently calling for a 140 mph category 4 landfall in Louisiana on Sunday. That's one of the highest forecasts I've seen from them this far out... but a lot of the statistical model guidance is off the charts right now. Cat 5 is definitely not out of the question. I would evacuate if I lived anywhere in southern Louisiana including New Orleans.

If Ida passes west of New Orleans, weirdly enough it probably works out better for the city The right side of a landfalling hurricane has higher winds than the left side (since the counter-clockwise circulation combines with the storm's forward motion), which would mean a higher surge... except that New Orleans primarily floods not from the ocean, but from Lake Pontchartrain on the north side of the city. A track west of the city would mainly push water in the lake away from the city, which would decrease the Katrina-like surge threat a bit... but would also mean a greater wind and tornado threat.

Camille and Katrina both tracked east of New Orleans, while most models currently have Ida tracking to the west. Obviously that's not to say New Orleans is in good shape if that verifies, but it could be worse.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #791 on: August 27, 2021, 06:03:37 PM »

And the hurricane trackers have done a fairly poor job of forecasting top wind speeds over the past few years, so I wouldn't be surprised if this were to hit Cat 5 status.
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #793 on: August 28, 2021, 10:47:37 PM »

https://www.wafb.com/2021/08/28/hurricane-ida-will-be-strongest-storm-hit-louisiana-since-1850s-governor-warns/

Strongest storm to hit Louisiana since the 1850s?? I think not.

Remember Laura just last year? That was 150 mph at its landfall on the Louisiana coast... which is stronger than any forecast has ever had for Ida.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #794 on: August 29, 2021, 02:06:46 AM »

Ida has officially reached Cat 3 status as of the 1 AM Advisory on 8/29.

Meanwhile, we've got two more TDs in the Atlantic, and there's a wave still over Africa that the NHC is currently predicting a 70 percent chance of Development between 2 and 5 days out. We may just knock out Julian, Kate, and Larry in quick succession, and get the infamous "Cape Verde" storm.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #795 on: August 29, 2021, 07:49:40 AM »

https://www.wafb.com/2021/08/28/hurricane-ida-will-be-strongest-storm-hit-louisiana-since-1850s-governor-warns/

Strongest storm to hit Louisiana since the 1850s?? I think not.

Remember Laura just last year? That was 150 mph at its landfall on the Louisiana coast... which is stronger than any forecast has ever had for Ida.
You sure about that last statement  :-/.
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #796 on: August 29, 2021, 09:45:19 AM »

https://www.wafb.com/2021/08/28/hurricane-ida-will-be-strongest-storm-hit-louisiana-since-1850s-governor-warns/

Strongest storm to hit Louisiana since the 1850s?? I think not.

Remember Laura just last year? That was 150 mph at its landfall on the Louisiana coast... which is stronger than any forecast has ever had for Ida.
You sure about that last statement  :-/.

It was true at the time I wrote it.  :)

150 mph now and still strengthening… at this point the only question is whether it’ll make cat 5 before landfall. One of the fastest periods of rapid intensification I’ve ever seen.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #797 on: August 29, 2021, 10:58:12 AM »

I have cousins in LaPlace that are staying put. Not even this storm can get them to evacuate.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #798 on: August 29, 2021, 03:03:14 PM »

?s=21

Location: https://goo.gl/maps/qZE6Cf9UXkT15Eky6
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US 89

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #799 on: August 30, 2021, 12:19:11 AM »

I have cousins in LaPlace that are staying put. Not even this storm can get them to evacuate.

Hope they are doing ok... Laplace appears to be where the worst of the flooding is

 


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