Tropical cyclone tracking thread

[US 89]

I-15 also was (still is?) closed in Barstow after lightning struck a utility pole. I guess they were afraid of it falling down onto the highway.

[cl94]

Are most of those highways closed as precaution, or due to actual damage? I noticed Google Maps is showing most will be open again later today, but I don't know how they determine that.

Actual damage, floods, or slides on all of the closures I listed. At minimum, 10 and 127 are still underwater, 395 is buried under mud, and 200 yards or so of 190 washed out in Panamint Valley as of Monday morning.

[bing101]

https://www.khou.com/article/weather/gulf-tropical-development/285-9d6fd6dc-25ba-454d-8427-8c938f196b61


Another a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Texas heading to the Corpus Christi area.

[US 89]

Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.

[jgb191]

Unlike Hurricane Harvey six years ago, this year TS Harold won't hurt, indeed, we're all welcoming the badly-needed rain and mild daytime temperatures as we are more than eleven inches behind schedule for this time of the year.  Our wettest month is next month September, hopefully we can get another TD or TS in before the holidays.

[Alex]

Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.

Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. 

[Dough4872]

Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.

Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. 

Yeah it's always the "I"  storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired. 

[JayhawkCO]

Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.

Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. 

Yeah it's always the "I"  storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.

There's plenty left off the top of my brain: Ichabod, Isaac, Izzy, Idris, Ilan, Ilian, Iman, Irwin...

[PColumbus73]

Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.

Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. 

Yeah it's always the "I"  storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.

There's plenty left off the top of my brain: Ichabod, Isaac, Izzy, Idris, Ilan, Ilian, Iman, Irwin...

In the Carolinas, it seems like the bad ones tend to start with F, see Fran, Floyd and Florence. H comes in second with Hazel and Hugo. Matthew seems to have been an outlier

[US 89]

Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.

Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. 

Yeah it's always the "I"  storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.

There's plenty left off the top of my brain: Ichabod, Isaac, Izzy, Idris, Ilan, Ilian, Iman, Irwin...

There's less than you think. Isaac is a current Atlantic name (though it should have been retired in 2012 IMO). Idris is the replacement name for Ian. Irwin is currently in use in the Eastern Pacific and in fact is the next name this year in that basin.

There's a decent number of female I names to go around, but male I names are starting to get stretched a bit thin.

[PColumbus73]

Last time we used this list, it was 2017 and we had the devastating Hurricane Harvey. That name was retired and replaced with Harold, which is about to hit not all that far from where Harvey did (albeit much weaker). I guess H storms from this name list hate Texas.

Emily and Gert were basically wasted, accelerating the use of letters to H from just a week ago. If the I storm is another monster, like Ian, Irma, Ike, etc., then I think a conspiracy theory about that letter should gain traction. 

Yeah it's always the "I"  storms that are bad. Pretty soon gonna run out of I names to use because they will all be retired.

There's plenty left off the top of my brain: Ichabod, Isaac, Izzy, Idris, Ilan, Ilian, Iman, Irwin...

There's less than you think. Isaac is a current Atlantic name (though it should have been retired in 2012 IMO). Idris is the replacement name for Ian. Irwin is currently in use in the Eastern Pacific and in fact is the next name this year in that basin.

There's a decent number of female I names to go around, but male I names are starting to get stretched a bit thin.

Speaking of I names, a lot of people (in the US) had a lot of trouble pronouncing Isaias when it came around in 2020

[bing101]

This storm heading for Texas is now called Tropical Depression Harold.

[gonealookin]

Any chance the storm might track further east and funnel some of that rain into the Colorado basin?

Southern Nevada should get plenty and that generally funnels down into Lake Mead, but much east of there, I don't think so.  Generously using Page, AZ as a proxy for "the Colorado basin", forecast rain amounts there for the next few days are trivial. 

The Colorado watershed doesn't extend much further west than the Las Vegas Valley, so if the heaviest rain bands go over Death Valley and end up in Nye County, that runoff will unfortunately not make it to Lake Mead.

NWS Las Vegas has flood watches out for the Las Vegas Valley as well as southern Nye County, so it seems like there is still some uncertainty here (or the storm may impact both basins).

Checking Lake Mead at the Bureau of Reclamation site, water level went from an average 1063.32 feet ASL on Friday to 1063.99 feet ASL at the most recent hourly reading, so Scott's statement was accurate as Hilary brought the lake level up by only about 8 inches.

That's nice, but minor in comparison to the effect of this year's snowmelt.  The full 2023 data set shows that the level has increased by about 19 feet since January 1, and 18 feet of that since early April.

[kalvado]

Any chance the storm might track further east and funnel some of that rain into the Colorado basin?

Southern Nevada should get plenty and that generally funnels down into Lake Mead, but much east of there, I don't think so.  Generously using Page, AZ as a proxy for "the Colorado basin", forecast rain amounts there for the next few days are trivial. 

The Colorado watershed doesn't extend much further west than the Las Vegas Valley, so if the heaviest rain bands go over Death Valley and end up in Nye County, that runoff will unfortunately not make it to Lake Mead.

NWS Las Vegas has flood watches out for the Las Vegas Valley as well as southern Nye County, so it seems like there is still some uncertainty here (or the storm may impact both basins).

Checking Lake Mead at the Bureau of Reclamation site, water level went from an average 1063.32 feet ASL on Friday to 1063.99 feet ASL at the most recent hourly reading, so Scott's statement was accurate as Hilary brought the lake level up by only about 8 inches.

That's nice, but minor in comparison to the effect of this year's snowmelt.  The full 2023 data set shows that the level has increased by about 19 feet since January 1, and 18 feet of that since early April.

And for reference, in 2020, 21 and 22 Lake Mead water level dropped by 8, 17 and 22 feet over the respective year, 1/1 to 12/31.

[US 89]

Yeah, in my experience a lot of people from the eastern half of the country don't fully understand just how snowmelt dominated the western water climate is. The water volumes involved are far greater than those that come during the monsoon or any tropical systems. Something like 95% of water in the western US comes from snowpack.

Put it this way. A best case scenario for Mead in Hilary might have been a track further east and maybe up to 4-5 inches max of rain over southern NV/northwest AZ/southern UT. And even then, not all of that area would get that much rain, as a lot of it tends to come in showers and thunderstorms that are hit or miss. This is especially true when you're talking about regular monsoon season thunderstorms - even in a very active monsoon year with a lot of big storms, your location might just have enough bad luck with where the cells track that you miss out on a lot of it. Spring snowmelt involves much more water being melted from a much bigger area. As far as Lake Mead is concerned, every year you melt maybe 15-20 inches of water equivalent snowpack from basically every mountain in western CO, eastern UT, most of western WY, northwest NM, northern AZ, and southern NV.

Tropical events and monsoon thunderstorms get all the attention because they drop a lot of rain in one specific place in a very short time, which of course causes all kinds of flooding and damage - especially because it is quite difficult to forecast the intricacies of where the storm cells happen to form more than a few hours out, so there often isn't much you can do to prepare. Snowmelt is a more gradual process, and while the biggest years can have a lot of snowmelt flooding, it's a lot easier to prepare for and the damage is often less eye-catching. There was plenty of flooding this spring, but everyone knew it was coming just from one look at how much snow was in the mountains, so there was plenty of time to make preparations.

[bing101]

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/tropical-storm-franklin-could-near-hurricane-strength-by-saturday-us-nhc-2023-08-24/
https://apnews.com/article/tropical-storm-franklin-harold-8b1af20a82a9d2c2033a6aacb062e661
Here is Tropical Storm Franklin.

[Dough4872]

We now have Tropical Storm Idalia, which could hit the Florida Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Wednesday.

[Alex]

Tropical Storm Idalia is rapidly organizing in the NW Caribbean. I suspect this will be a major hurricane before landfall in Florida. Just speculated six days ago "what if another I storm is a monster?" That looks very well like it may happen.

[roadman65]

Tropical Storm Idalia is rapidly organizing in the NW Caribbean. I suspect this will be a major hurricane before landfall in Florida. Just speculated six days ago "what if another I storm is a monster?" That looks very well like it may happen.

People of SW Florida are still recovering from Irma and this crap has to happen again. I swear the developers put a curse on us and nature is sending us her wrath that she don’t like her land to be messed with and turned into another New York.

[triplemultiplex]

Sounds like this one is gonna blow up massively in the next 24 hours.
There goes another 20 billion dollars.

[Scott5114]

With the reports of 90—100° water temperatures off the coast of Florida earlier this year, I figured it was only a matter of time until this happened.

Stay safe!

[roadman65]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/lakeland/33801/tropical-weather-forecast/332280

[triplemultiplex]

At least Idalia's aiming for the least populous coast in the entire state of Florida.   Cedar Key is going to get wiped off the map, but other than that, the 'big bend' part of Florida is a largely undeveloped coast.  All those mangroves will absorb a huge amount of energy from the storm.

[roadman65]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/live-news/live-dangerous-hurricane-idalia-strengthens-as-it-heads-for-florida/1574324

It looks like The Big Bend Area will get hit with a Cat Four from Idalia.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Stay safe, Florida.