NFL (2024 Season)

[Great Lakes Roads]

The Falcons' head coach got fired (Arthur Smith) at 12:01 am EST... Let the firing of coaches begin since it's Black Monday!

[jakeroot]

Congrats Dolphins! Because you choked the division, you've been sentenced to playing in 17 degree weather at Arrowhead next Saturday!

It will be a brutal game, but I remain optimistic. Chiefs really aren't playing that great, and Mostert and Waddle should be back. Hopefully Van Ginkel is back too.

Connor Williams (C) and Bradley Chubb (LB) ACL tears, however, are a massive loss.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Saw this and it was simply too insane not to share. Falcons = biggest disappointment of 2023, even accounting for some tough competition (Chargers, Jets)

https://twitter.com/greggrosenthal/status/1737893169461944407

And, predictably, Coach Arthur Smith was just fired.

[Ted$8roadFan]

Today is Black Monday for the NFL. Which coaches will get terminated, or "moving on to other opportunities"?

[JayhawkCO]

Ron Rivera gone.

[NWI_Irish96]

Just saw this on Twitter: This is the first time in league history that all three Lake Erie teams (perhaps extending the definition of Lake Erie just a bit) made the playoffs in the same season.

[ET21]

Today is a great day for Luke Getsy to be fired

[triplemultiplex]

I'd be pissed if I was a Chiefs or Dolphins fan with that game only being available on some streaming platform. DUMB!

[epzik8]

The pundits really want Bill Belichick or Jim Harbaugh to come to Washington...

[jmacswimmer]

I'd be pissed if I was a Chiefs or Dolphins fan with that game only being available on some streaming platform. DUMB!

I think I saw somewhere that it's being simulcast on tv in the local markets - so anyone in Miami or Kansas City will be fine, but everyone else is still SOL (and yes, agreed with your point and equally confused/annoyed on the NFL's newest obsession with trying to push games onto streaming).

On another point, I find it interesting that the wildcard schedule is such that all 3 AFC games will be played before all 3 NFC games - not sure if that's ever happened before (a quick review of every "super" wild card weekend since the 7-seed was added shows it hasn't, but maybe it happened sometime before that). The AFC divisional round will now be finalized by ~4-4:30 next Sunday, whereas the NFC side won't be finalized until late Monday night.

[NWI_Irish96]

I'd be pissed if I was a Chiefs or Dolphins fan with that game only being available on some streaming platform. DUMB!

It will be simulcast on a local channel in KC and Miami.

[JayhawkCO]

I'd be pissed if I was a Chiefs or Dolphins fan with that game only being available on some streaming platform. DUMB!

Every single thing that I watch is on some streaming platform.

[webny99]

Today is Black Monday for the NFL. Which coaches will get terminated, or "moving on to other opportunities"?

There are now five teams with a head coaching vacancy, but I don't see any other clear cut, obvious candidates to be dismissed.

Already fired (5): Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Falcons, Commanders
On the radar (5): Bears, Saints, Jaguars, Patriots, Titans
Likely Safe (22): Playoff teams plus Bengals, Broncos, Cardinals, Colts, Giants, Jets, Vikings, Seahawks
However, I wouldn't completely rule out the loser of Bucs-Eagles getting fired.

And, predictably, Coach Arthur Smith was just fired.

This is an interesting one. I'm not shocked because it fits with the longstanding mantra that NFL head coaches have three seasons to make the playoffs or they're out. Yet before the season, I thought there was almost zero chance Smith was fired because their roster looked much improved and the path to the NFC South title or at least a winning record looked so easy. And their defense did improve, but it did not translate to more wins. While I don't think Smith was a terrible coach, there's simply no excuse for a third-straight 7-win season. Especially when the coach wanted to run the ball and couldn't do it with some really good weapons, and (IMO) mishandled the QB situation by not bringing in a better backup and flip flopping on the starter all season.

[webny99]

Gonna be a good slate. This is the first time in the 7-team era that I really don't think anybody is safe in wild card weekend. To me the Steelers are the worst team in the playoffs, but both of their potential opponents have their flaws (wide receivers and random letdown games, I'm sure everyone knows which is which). And as much as I've been hating on Pittsburgh all year, they have been legit the last few weeks thanks to the best QB on their roster finally getting on the field.

Good might be an understatement. Week 18 played out almost perfectly IMO. I think we're getting the best 14 teams in the NFL right now, with no completely undeserving entries (no one with a losing record!), and no glaring omissions, even despite five 9-8 teams missing out. It didn't go well for my forks, but I will admit that I would much rather see the Packers in the playoffs than the Saints or Seahawks. And with the Jaguars stumbling, there won't be any 10-win teams that missed out.

The 49ers absolutely understood the assignment with letting the Rams steal one to set up the Rams-Lions revenge game we needed. I had decided that I would have been "OK" with Rams/Cowboys and Packers/Lions, but the two games we got are even better.

Not happy about the Steelers, but appreciate the irony that the Bills will have to knock them out to advance - and they are ultimately a better matchup than the Texans, who I would not want to face right now.

[webny99]

AFC North

Baltimore 13-4
Cleveland 11-6
Pittsburgh 10-7
Cincinnati 9-8

First post merger NFL division to have all of its teams finish above .500

Every division except for one finished 2023 with multiple teams above .500.

Which one probably wouldn't be your first guess, maybe not even in your first few guesses - it's not the NFC South or NFC North, but the supposed juggernaut AFC West that ended with the Chiefs as the lone team above .500.

[jeffandnicole]

I'd be pissed if I was a Chiefs or Dolphins fan with that game only being available on some streaming platform. DUMB!

NFL rules have long permitted a local channel for each team to broadcast any game that's primarily on ESPN, the NFL network, or streaming.

[JayhawkCO]

And, predictably, Coach Arthur Smith was just fired.

This is an interesting one. I'm not shocked because it fits with the longstanding mantra that NFL head coaches have three seasons to make the playoffs or they're out. Yet before the season, I thought there was almost zero chance Smith was fired because their roster looked much improved and the path to the NFC South title or at least a winning record looked so easy. And their defense did improve, but it did not translate to more wins. While I don't think Smith was a terrible coach, there's simply no excuse for a third-straight 7-win season. Especially when the coach wanted to run the ball and couldn't do it with some really good weapons, and (IMO) mishandled the QB situation by not bringing in a better backup and flip flopping on the starter all season.

Arthur Smith was fired because of fantasy football. Fans can't understand why the team doesn't win AND doesn't take full advantage of perceived stars Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. If the team had a lot of nobodies on it, I would tend to think that fans would think he over achieved.

[NWI_Irish96]

I'd be pissed if I was a Chiefs or Dolphins fan with that game only being available on some streaming platform. DUMB!

Every single thing that I watch is on some streaming platform.

You never watch local channels or traditional cable channels like ESPN? Those are not considered to be streaming platforms even if you happen to watch them via stream.

[thspfc]

And, predictably, Coach Arthur Smith was just fired.

This is an interesting one. I'm not shocked because it fits with the longstanding mantra that NFL head coaches have three seasons to make the playoffs or they're out. Yet before the season, I thought there was almost zero chance Smith was fired because their roster looked much improved and the path to the NFC South title or at least a winning record looked so easy. And their defense did improve, but it did not translate to more wins. While I don't think Smith was a terrible coach, there's simply no excuse for a third-straight 7-win season. Especially when the coach wanted to run the ball and couldn't do it with some really good weapons, and (IMO) mishandled the QB situation by not bringing in a better backup and flip flopping on the starter all season.

Arthur Smith was fired because of fantasy football. Fans can't understand why the team doesn't win AND doesn't take full advantage of perceived stars Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. If the team had a lot of nobodies on it, I would tend to think that fans would think he over achieved.

I fully agree with the idea that the Falcons optimism was from fantasy:

The Falcons are actually doing better than I expected them to. The hype was derived from fantasy football. People went crazy at the thought of their 3 first round skill position picks of the last 3 drafts (Bijan, London, Pitts). Turns out you need a competent QB and competent coaching for that to matter. Not to mention that prospects are just that . . . prospects.

However, that's not why Smith was fired. He was fired because he's coached the same bad team three years in a row with no progress.

Also on Bijan/London/Pitts . . . fantasy maniacs often make no sense to me. They're literally just first round picks. That's it, that's the entire reason why they're hyped up. Here are all the teams with better skill position trios than those three:

49ers (McCaffrey/Kittle/Deebo/Aiyuk)
Dolphins (Mostert/Hill/Waddle)
Rams (Williams/Nacua/Kupp)
Cowboys (Pollard/Lamb/Ferguson)
Lions (Montgomery/Gibbs/St. Brown/La Porta)
Chiefs (Pacheco/Kelce/Rice)
Bills (Cook/Diggs/Davis)
Eagles (Swift/Brown/Smith)
Bengals (Mixon/Chase/Higgins)
Seahawks (Walker/Metcalf/Lockett)
Jaguars (Etienne/Ridley/Engram)
Buccaneers (White/Evans/Godwin)
Vikings (Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson)
Steelers (Harris/Warren/Pickens)
Browns (Chubb/Ford/Cooper/Njoku)
Colts (Taylor/Pittman/Downs)

That's over half the rest of the league. Atlanta's supposed strength was never a strength at all. Hype trains are weird.


I was correct in my prediction that the AFCN would be the league's best division. Looking back at my preseason power rankings . . .

To start off, there are 9 teams that I think are locks to win 10+ games.
1. Bengals
2. Chiefs
3. Eagles
4. Bills
5. Ravens
6. 49ers
7. Cowboys
8. Jets
9. Seahawks

6/9. Of the other three, two suffered a major QB injury, and two were one win away from 10. Could be a lot worse.

Moving down into teams I expect to be over .500, but a losing season wouldn't shock me:
10. Browns
11. Lions
12. Vikings
13. Jaguars
14. Broncos
15. Chargers
16. Saints

4/7. Again, two of the other three lost their franchise QB. My assessments of the Jags and Saints were spot on, they just ended up facing more competition than expected within the division.

Teams I expect to be below .500, but a winning season wouldn't shock me:
17. Patriots
18. Steelers
19. Dolphins
20. Packers

3 of these 4 had winning seasons. Not shocked by any of them, clearly wrong about the Dolphins but I was on the "can't beat good teams" bandwagon way before everyone else 

Teams I'm very confident will be below .500:
21. Raiders
22. Giants
23. Rams
24. Titans
25. Bears
26. Cardinals
27. Commanders
28. Panthers
29. Buccaneers
30. Falcons
31. Colts
32. Texans

8/12. Arizona was indeed not the worst team in the league. The offseason consensus trainwreck almost never is.

Playoffs
AFC
1. Bengals (1)
2. Chiefs (2)
3. Bills (4)
4. Jaguars (13)
5. Ravens (5)
6. Jets (8)
7. Browns (10)

4/7

NFC
1. Eagles (3)
2. 49ers (6)
3. Lions (11)
4. Saints (16)
5. Cowboys (7)
6. Seahawks (9)
7. Vikings (12)

4/7

My NFC bracket:
2) Cowboys defeat 7) Packers
6) Rams defeat 3) Lions
5) Eagles defeat 4) Buccaneers

1) 49ers defeat 6) Rams
2) Cowboys defeat 5) Eagles

1) 49ers defeat 2) Cowboys

AFC bracket:
2) Bills defeat 7) Steelers
3) Chiefs defeat 6) Dolphins
5) Browns defeat 4) Texans

1) Ravens defeat 5) Browns
2) Bills defeat 3) Chiefs

2) Bills defeat 1) Ravens

Super Bowl: Bills defeat 49ers

[TheHighwayMan3561]

Just saw this on Twitter: This is the first time in league history that all three Lake Erie teams (perhaps extending the definition of Lake Erie just a bit) made the playoffs in the same season.

A very heavy Rust Belt representation if you add Pittsburgh and Green Bay to the three "Lake Erie" teams.

[jlam]

I'll analyze my preseason predictions:

NFC North:
y - Vikings 12-5 (7-10, -5*)
x - Lions 10-7 (12-5, +2)
Packers 6-11 (9-8, +3)
Bears 5-12 (7-10, +2)

NFC East:
z - Eagles 13-4 (11-6, -2)
x - Cowboys 11-6 (12-5, +1)
x - Giants 9-8 (6-11, -3)
Commanders 8-9 (4-13, -4)

NFC South:
y - Saints 10-7 (9-8, -1)
Falcons 8-9 (7-10, -1)
Panthers 5-12 (2-15, -3)
Buccaneers 4-13 (9-8, +5)

NFC West:
y - 49ers 13-4 (12-5, -1)
Seahawks 8-9 (9-8, +1)
Rams 7-10 (10-7, +3)
Cardinals 3-14 (4-13, +1)

AFC North:
y - Bengals 13-4 (9-8, -4*)
x - Ravens 11-6 (13-4, +2)
Steelers 7-10 (10-7, +3)
Browns 5-12 (11-6, +6)

AFC East:
y - Bills 12-5 (11-6, -1)
x - Jets 10-7 (7-10, -3*)
Dolphins (8-9) (11-6, +3)
Patriots (7-10) (4-13, -3)

AFC South:
x - Jaguars 12-5 (9-8, -3*)
Titans 7-10 (6-11, -1)
Texans 6-11 (10-7, +4)
Colts 4-13 (9-8, +5)

AFC West:
z - Chiefs 14-3 (11-6, -3)
x - Chargers 10-7 (5-12, -5*)
Broncos 9-8 (8-9, -1)
Raiders 5-12 (8-9, +3)

NFC

• Eagles (5)
• 49ers (1)
• Vikings (10*)
• Saints (9)
• Cowboys (2)
• Lions (3)
• Giants (13)

4/7

AFC

• Chiefs (3)
• Bengals (8*)
• Bills (2)
• Jaguars (9)
• Ravens (1)
• Chargers (15*)
• Jets (13*)

3/7

*team lost their starting QB to injury

I'll predict the postseason in a bit.

[webny99]

Arthur Smith was fired because of fantasy football. Fans can't understand why the team doesn't win AND doesn't take full advantage of perceived stars Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. If the team had a lot of nobodies on it, I would tend to think that fans would think he over achieved.

I'm not questioning fantasy affected the narrative around the team, but that's more about fans and the media. I doubt it was a huge factor in the owner's decision. Owners just get antsy and tend to pull the plug after three seasons of no progress (specifically no playoffs).

And it is definitely worth distinguishing between the last two seasons and this season. They did overachieve in 2021 and 2022. But they added a lot of talent on defense this offseason (and the defense did have a much better season until imploding the last two weeks), drafted an RB in the top 10 to help them win now, and played a historically soft schedule and division - about as good a recipe as you could possibly concoct for a big improvement record-wise. And unlike the last two seasons, the failures cannot be "blamed" on the roster rebuild. There was zero excuses not to get at least 10 wins and a playoff berth, so the blame for underachieving falls on the coach.

[webny99]

Just saw this on Twitter: This is the first time in league history that all three Lake Erie teams (perhaps extending the definition of Lake Erie just a bit) made the playoffs in the same season.

A very heavy Rust Belt representation if you add Pittsburgh and Green Bay to the three "Lake Erie" teams.

Hmm, I'd never thought about this before, but there's also a strong case that these are five of the best fanbases, or at least most hard core fanbases, in the league. Pretty sure I'd have all five in the top ten.

[NWI_Irish96]

Didn't do very well predicting the regular season, let's see if I can do any better with the playoffs:

AFC
2 Bills over 7 Steeers
3 Chiefs over 6 Dolphins
5 Browns over 4 Texans

1 Ravens over 5 Browns
2 Bills over 3 Chiefs

2 Bills over 1 Ravens

NFC
2 Cowboys over 7 Packers
6 Rams over 3 Lions
5 Eagles over 4 Bucs

1 49ers over 6 Rams
2 Cowboys over 5 Eagles

2 Cowboys over 1 49ers

Super Bowl
Bills over Cowboys

[webny99]

I'd be... weirdly more surprised if the Eagles returned to the Super Bowl than the Chiefs? Their conference is easier, but they didn't get better this off-season, and it's rare in recent history for NFC teams to repeat, never mind the NFC East which seemingly never has a repeat champion.

Well, it took until Week 18, and for a while there I was trying to comprehend the level of panic in Philly if the Cowboys lost to the Commanders but still backed into a division title because the Eagles were barely competitive against the Giants, but Dallas ended up pulling away handily and extending the streak without a repeat champion.