April 8, 2024 Total Solar Eclipse

[Jim]

The reason being that the experience is not proportional to the percentage of coverage. The experience of 100% is a lot more than 20% better than 80%.

https://xkcd.com/1880/

[SSOWorld]

I have a 2-week clinch-a-thon in KS, MO, AR, OK and TX that main-events in Kerrville, TX (overnighting in San Antonio).  This is as ideal as 2017 was, where I was able to base in the path of totality and set up a chair outside the hotel in Grand Island.  Kerrville and Cleveland (Ohio, not Texas) are two cities with NASA presence.

This Flickr album (3/4 down page 1 to page 2) shows a surreal capture of 2017's shadow cutting through Grand Island.

I drove in the day before and out the day after in 17. No such luck this year - hotels were sold out over a year in advance outside San Antonio.  I got into one by the airport.  In 17, the VMSs were mentioning SOLAR ECLIPSE even on the day before.

Kerrville is doing what they can to plan for this.  They're treating it like a 4th of July, but this is not the Fourth of July, because the crowd is WAAAYYY much more than in-town folk.

[Rothman]

The number of people I've heard that are headed to Kerrville specifically is surprising.  Wonder if they'll be able to handle the crowd.

[Evan_Th]

As for my own plans for this year's eclipse, I intend to dodge the eclipse like I did in 2017. Doesn't help that, unlike in 2017 when I was out west anyway, the most predictably clear skies in the totality path will be in Mazatlan, Mexico. I might feel differently if I lived in the totality path, and could just let the eclipse come to me, even with no assurance the weather will cooperate.

Assuming you will be in Virginia, I don't see a convenient option to drive to the path. Probably 6-7 hours minimum. The Dansville-Mount Morris area wouldn't be too bad of a run and avoids big cities unless you count Harrisburg, but it is too bad CSVT isn't open yet.

My parents are planning to drive up from NC to visit their friends in Erie, PA, for the eclipse.  It's a long drive, but doable.  And, it helps that they've got a reason to do it even aside from the eclipse.

[formulanone]

As I mentioned ahead of the 2017 solar eclipse, Isaac Asimov wrote a short story about a solar eclipse called "Nightfall". That was set on a planet in a six-sun system, where at least one sun is always in the sky ... except once every 4000 years or so, when five of the suns are below the horizon, and then the sixth is totally eclipsed.

People went bat-shit crazy on those occasions. Not so much that almost nobody had ever experienced total darkness, as their shock at what they unexpectedly saw in the sky during the total eclipse.

After reading Nightfall, I have been reluctant to casually mention attending and working for a university without knowing my audience.   

[ozarkman417]

Whether or not the eclipse will be visible in West-Central AR on April 8th is looking questionable. The current cloud cover forecasts look concerning, though we're still over a week out. I booked a cabin in totality well in advance, though I'm willing to drive to better conditions if that's even possible.

[Jim]

I'm planning on Snow Ridge (https://snowridge.com/event/solar-eclipse-party/) despite their using images of a lunar eclipse...  Hoping NY 8/NY 12 is a less popular route than the interstates for people in most of the population centers.  I can see Boonville being a bottleneck, though.

[Rothman]

I'm planning on Snow Ridge (https://snowridge.com/event/solar-eclipse-party/) despite their using images of a lunar eclipse...  Hoping NY 8/NY 12 is a less popular route than the interstates for people in most of the population centers.  I can see Boonville being a bottleneck, though.

Definitely an intriguing strategy.  Might actually work, given most people are flooding into Jefferson and Oswego Counties.

That said, the always-hyperbolic traffic engineer in NYSDOT Region 2 is saying Old Forge is set to get swamped, so traffic coming out of there into Alder Creek could be a bottleneck.

Only time will tell.

[webny99]

That said, the always-hyperbolic traffic engineer in NYSDOT Region 2 is saying Old Forge is set to get swamped, so traffic coming out of there into Alder Creek could be a bottleneck.

That seems unlikely since NY 12/28 is four lanes heading south out of Alder Creek and usually moves well (with just two traffic lights between there and the Thruway). IMO, Boonville and Old Forge are more likely to be the choke points on their respective corridors.

[epzik8]

despite their using images of a lunar eclipse

After next week, though, they'll have solar eclipse images on hand for their webpage.

[Rothman]

That said, the always-hyperbolic traffic engineer in NYSDOT Region 2 is saying Old Forge is set to get swamped, so traffic coming out of there into Alder Creek could be a bottleneck.

That seems unlikely since NY 12/28 is four lanes heading south out of Alder Creek and usually moves well (with just two traffic lights between there and the Thruway). IMO, Boonville and Old Forge are more likely to be the choke points on their respective corridors.

Yep, we'll believe you instead of the traffic engineer...

[webny99]

That said, the always-hyperbolic traffic engineer in NYSDOT Region 2 is saying Old Forge is set to get swamped, so traffic coming out of there into Alder Creek could be a bottleneck.

That seems unlikely since NY 12/28 is four lanes heading south out of Alder Creek and usually moves well (with just two traffic lights between there and the Thruway). IMO, Boonville and Old Forge are more likely to be the choke points on their respective corridors.

Yep, we'll believe you instead of the traffic engineer...

Instead of? I am the one agreeing with him, FWIW.

[webny99]

It's still early to forecast exact weather conditions, but not too early to drop this here:

[vdeane]

The eclipse forecast is certainly stressing me out.  My plan was to go to Rochester and just stay with my parents, but now the local forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies.  The Adirondacks look better, but I never made plans for what to do in that scenario, and the traffic makes me wonder about the practicality of a day trip (not to mention finding somewhere to park and keeping myself occupied waiting for totality, especially as I would probably need to arrive way early to find a spot); Reddit (r/Albany, anyways) is making it seem like anyone who hasn't left by sunrise will never make it to totality in time (!), with the drive back expected to be even worse.  I'm starting to wonder if I'll need to sit this one out.  I'm really regretting not traveling for the 2017 eclipse.

[webny99]

weather.gov, which I tend to trust more than accuweather or other sources, is currently showing mostly sunny in Rochester during the day on Monday and turning cloudy overnight. At this point, I will take it.

But if I wasn't local and had to travel anyways, I'd be strongly considering locations on the east shore of Lake Ontario. That seems safer than the Adirondacks for a number of reasons; cloud cover is typically lower over the lake, most of the east shore has an open view to the southwest, and it's generally pretty accessible from I-81, with US 11 serving as a decent alternate if I-81 has problems.

[7/8]

It's still early to forecast exact weather conditions, but not too early to drop this here:

Could you share the link? I can't find it on their website.

If this ends up being accurate, the 401 to Kingston will be a nightmare!

[vdeane]

Well, I guess we can only hope Weather Underground is wrong then, because they're saying mostly cloudy with 77% cloud cover at the time of the eclipse.  Although the Rochester meteorologists seem more optimistic than that (sadly, WTEN in Albany didn't have an eclipse forecast for today since they were more focused on tonight's storm; they were including Rochester/Syracuse in those and I find they're more accurate even for Rochester weather than the Rochester meteorologists).

[Rothman]

weather.gov, which I tend to trust more than accuweather or other sources, is currently showing mostly sunny in Rochester during the day on Monday and turning cloudy overnight. At this point, I will take it.

But if I wasn't local and had to travel anyways, I'd be strongly considering locations on the east shore of Lake Ontario. That seems safer than the Adirondacks for a number of reasons; cloud cover is typically lower over the lake, most of the east shore has an open view to the southwest, and it's generally pretty accessible from I-81, with US 11 serving as a decent alternate if I-81 has problems.

Pfft.  I'd think Southwick Beach will be swamped.  There's plenty of shore...not so much when it comes to parking.

[webny99]

It's still early to forecast exact weather conditions, but not too early to drop this here:

Could you share the link? I can't find it on their website.

If this ends up being accurate, the 401 to Kingston will be a nightmare!

Are you having trouble viewing the image? I can't remember what webpage I pulled it from initially but just did a google image search and found it embedded in this article. I am not finding it on NWS's site either, so I guess take it with a grain of salt.

...
But if I wasn't local and had to travel anyways, I'd be strongly considering locations on the east shore of Lake Ontario. That seems safer than the Adirondacks for a number of reasons; cloud cover is typically lower over the lake, most of the east shore has an open view to the southwest, and it's generally pretty accessible from I-81, with US 11 serving as a decent alternate if I-81 has problems.

Pfft.  I'd think Southwick Beach will be swamped.  There's plenty of shore...not so much when it comes to parking.

Sure, but there are quite a few spots besides Southwick. Mexico Point, Selkirk, Sandy Island, even Robert Wehle or Long Point for the adventurous. The parking situation isn't great, but it won't be in the Adirondacks either.

[Rothman]

It's still early to forecast exact weather conditions, but not too early to drop this here:

Could you share the link? I can't find it on their website.

If this ends up being accurate, the 401 to Kingston will be a nightmare!

Are you having trouble viewing the image? I can't remember what webpage I pulled it from initially but just did a google image search and found it embedded in this article. I am not finding it on NWS's site either, so I guess take it with a grain of salt.

...
But if I wasn't local and had to travel anyways, I'd be strongly considering locations on the east shore of Lake Ontario. That seems safer than the Adirondacks for a number of reasons; cloud cover is typically lower over the lake, most of the east shore has an open view to the southwest, and it's generally pretty accessible from I-81, with US 11 serving as a decent alternate if I-81 has problems.

Pfft.  I'd think Southwick Beach will be swamped.  There's plenty of shore...not so much when it comes to parking.

Sure, but there are quite a few spots besides Southwick. Mexico Point, Selkirk, Sandy Island, even Robert Wehle or Long Point for the adventurous. The parking situation isn't great, but it won't be in the Adirondacks either.

But with reports that lodging in Jefferson and Oswego Counties are near full, there'll be a crowd in practically any established park.

[triplemultiplex]

NWS sky cover forecast:
https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php?element=Sky
Just advance the forecast period to Monday to see what their latest prediction is for clouds.  More grey = more chance of clouds.

North Arkansas, SOIL and Missouri's bootheel continue to show favorable skies as of this writing.  As does all of New England and far upstate NY.
Looking like a bust for all of Texas south of DFW.  Which is a bummer because I'm sure there are people who assumed the Northeast would be cloudy and Texas sunny when they started booking stuff, because that's what the odds would tell you it would be.

[7/8]

It's still early to forecast exact weather conditions, but not too early to drop this here:

Could you share the link? I can't find it on their website.

If this ends up being accurate, the 401 to Kingston will be a nightmare!

Are you having trouble viewing the image? I can't remember what webpage I pulled it from initially but just did a google image search and found it embedded in this article. I am not finding it on NWS's site either, so I guess take it with a grain of salt.

No I can see the image, I just wanted a link so I can view the latest version, assuming it's continuously updated.

NWS sky cover forecast:
https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php?element=Sky
Just advance the forecast period to Monday to see what their latest prediction is for clouds.  More grey = more chance of clouds.

Thanks for sharing! It doesn't include Canada, but it does include the great lakes, so close enough! I'm hoping Lake Erie improves so I can avoid driving east toward Montreal...

[CtrlAltDel]

Looking like a bust for all of Texas south of DFW.  Which is a bummer because I'm sure there are people who assumed the Northeast would be cloudy and Texas sunny when they started booking stuff, because that's what the odds would tell you it would be.

That was my thought. I'm now having to decide if I should make the drive north, or pass on it altogether. I'd prefer to not miss it, but I did see the eclipse of 2017, so it's not 100% pressing.

[CtrlAltDel]

I also found this map online, which takes clouds information from satellite data.

https://solcast.com/blog/april-2024-eclipse-solar-cloud-forecast

[Bruce]

I am driving all the way to Dallas, and with the forecast I am rather worried. Can't back out since I'm meeting a friend who is flying in and booked all non-refundable everything and refuses to consider a real backup option.

This will be my second time in totality, so I wouldn't be utterly devastated if the clouds moved in, but it would make my rushing through the plains (and skipping a lot of planned stops to make an absurd schedule) something I would regret.