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Author Topic: The New Madrid Fault Zone  (Read 6652 times)

edwaleni

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The New Madrid Fault Zone
« on: October 14, 2021, 06:13:52 PM »

From FEMA and GeoCONOPS:

The NMSZ has a 10 percent probability of a catastrophic NMSZ earthquake in the next fifty years. (from 2018)



A scenario analysis of a 7.7 NMSZ quake found that bridges as far north as Rock Island and Hennepin (yes, that I-180 bridge) and as far south as Natchez would sustain damage.



Bridges predicted to fail in a 7.7 are as follows:

- The 2 Cairo Bridges
- The Chester bridge
- The Paducah Bridge (US-45)
- I-155 Bridge
- Arkansas-Memphis Bridge
- DeSoto Bridge
- Helena Bridge
- Pine Bluff Bypass (Busn US-79)

The scenario analysis of a New Madrid event reaching 7.7 can be found here:

https://communities.geoplatform.gov/geoconops/2018/09/01/the-new-madrid-earthquake-scenario/

Too much information to cover in this thread, but they go through all the consequences in stark detail, including deaths, homelessness, how long it will take first responders to arrive, FEMA to get the National Guard in. All covered.

Maybe instead of a movie called "San Andreas", we need a new one called "New Madrid" and see if Dwayne Johnson can save us.


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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2021, 06:46:25 PM »

The chance of a major solar flare within the next 50 years is also about 10 percent, and it will be as disruptive as COVID-19 (but in a different way), but globally. It will actually be quite the opposite of COVID-19; everything will be moved from online to physical and non-electronic for several months. This type of event happened in 1859; with very little technology at the time, there were few issues.
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Bruce

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2021, 07:00:06 PM »

Seismic retrofits are a fun chunk of the highway budgets on the West Coast, so perhaps y'all should get used to seeing them. Though even if the major bridges are retrofitted, it won't be entirely passable if the approaches and overpasses collapse and block the way.

ilpt4u

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2021, 07:06:58 PM »

I didn’t see the Cape Girardeau, I-57/Cairo, nor I-24/Paducah bridges on the “likely to fail” list

The Cairo/IL-KY bridge is already scheduled to be replaced

The Chester bridge has failed once, and I believe it is coming due for replacement anyway

If/When/Should the Big One happen, maybe that would be good justification for giving the Cape Girardeau bridge its Parkway/Expressway/Freeway connection to I-57 and I-24 that has been studied but no further action, cutting thru the Shawnee National Forest - for Trans-Mississippi River redundancy
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edwaleni

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2021, 11:21:49 PM »

I didn’t see the Cape Girardeau, I-57/Cairo, nor I-24/Paducah bridges on the “likely to fail” list


They were on the "damage" list.

According to the damage chart, most of the seismic energy will travel south.

But because the midwest is so flat and regular, the shock waves will travel much farther.

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edwaleni

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2021, 11:25:27 PM »

The chance of a major solar flare within the next 50 years is also about 10 percent, and it will be as disruptive as COVID-19 (but in a different way), but globally. It will actually be quite the opposite of COVID-19; everything will be moved from online to physical and non-electronic for several months. This type of event happened in 1859; with very little technology at the time, there were few issues.

If there was so little technology in 1859, how did they know it was a solar flare?

Northern lights?
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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2021, 07:17:21 AM »

The chance of a major solar flare within the next 50 years is also about 10 percent, and it will be as disruptive as COVID-19 (but in a different way), but globally. It will actually be quite the opposite of COVID-19; everything will be moved from online to physical and non-electronic for several months. This type of event happened in 1859; with very little technology at the time, there were few issues.

If there was so little technology in 1859, how did they know it was a solar flare?

Northern lights?

Probably. Telegraphs (basically all that existed at the time) did have problems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
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hbelkins

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2021, 01:28:21 PM »

Kentucky did a lot of seismic retrofitting on I-24 and the western parkway bridges years ago.

Evidence of the retrofitting can also be seen on the overpasses along US 51 (future I-69) between Dyersburg and Union City.
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rte66man

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2021, 04:11:33 PM »

Kentucky did a lot of seismic retrofitting on I-24 and the western parkway bridges years ago.

Evidence of the retrofitting can also be seen on the overpasses along US 51 (future I-69) between Dyersburg and Union City.

And along I-40 heading east from Memphis.
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edwaleni

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2021, 11:53:50 PM »

Examples of some seismic remediation in the NMFZ.

US-51 north of Dyersburg



I-57/I-70 Overpass - Effingham IL





I-270 in Missouri



I-55 near Blythedale

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2021, 01:56:09 AM »

Interesting that all of the St Louis area bridges are “safe” under this scenario. I thought there would be some that wouldn’t make it, specifically the I-270 bridge over the Mississippi River.
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edwaleni

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2021, 10:36:50 AM »

Interesting that all of the St Louis area bridges are “safe” under this scenario. I thought there would be some that wouldn’t make it, specifically the I-270 bridge over the Mississippi River.

The report only notes that certain bridges will certainly fail, the rest are listed as "damaged". As to the fact they will be usable will depend on the inspection post tremor.

Bridges that use masonry based pylons are the most at risk because they have very small tolerance for sideway stresses.

Many of the bridges in and around I-270 in St Louis have been rebuilt since the NMSZ requirements came into being. I remember MoDOT putting up braces and cables back in the late 80's until they could be replaced.

The I-64 and I-44 bridges have all been replaced with newer and thicker support pylons. But many bridges, especially down near I-55 are still legacy.

I checked the Illinois side on I-255 and none have external remediation, so I can't tell if it was designed in or will require replacement. Many of the support structures on I-255 south of I-70/I-55 have rebar exposures and will require some kind of work in the next 10 years.

Perhaps Rick Powell has some insight on this generation design for IDOT, since they follow the same design pattern all the way to Jefferson Barracks.
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ilpt4u

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2021, 03:36:51 PM »

I-255 just had major rehab work done on it south of I-55/70 to IL 15 or so. I have no idea if part of the project included any bridge seismic work
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Stephane Dumas

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2021, 04:03:12 PM »

Besides New Madrid, there's another fault zone known as the Wabash Valley fault zone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wabash_Valley_Seismic_Zone 

They way they're localized in the map, I wonder if it could be part of the same fault system?
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edwaleni

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2021, 04:44:42 PM »

Besides New Madrid, there's another fault zone known as the Wabash Valley fault zone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wabash_Valley_Seismic_Zone 

They way they're localized in the map, I wonder if it could be part of the same fault system?

I lived in this area when we had 4.7 centered near Parkersburg, Illinois in 1972 at around 430PM.

I was visiting Indianapolis when the 2008 quake struck at 4 in the morning. I actually woke up to the dogs barking before I felt the vibrations.

Here is a map of the relationship between the WVSZ and the NMSZ.



https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1538o/report.pdf

https://igws.indiana.edu/Bedrock/Wabash

It was not unheard of where oil wells stopped producing after a tremor back when oil was easier to get.

According to USGS, the WVFZ is capable of producing up to a 7.0, but I don't think they have measured more than a 5.2.

Farther north in Illinois they have 'rebound quakes' that never go over 5.0. No fault lines, they are caused by the earth pushing itself back up after 10's of thousands of years of solid ice pushing it down during the ice age, hence the term "rebound".
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hbelkins

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2021, 07:38:12 PM »

There's a known fault near Clays Ferry, where I-75 crosses the Kentucky River on a very high and heavily-traveled bridge.
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MikieTimT

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2021, 11:44:48 AM »


Yeah, I read an older site that had a wealth of links about liquefaction in the New Madrid Seismic Zone and the probability of the bridges up and down the Mississippi River (the southern Ohio River and northern Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers would be impacted as well) making it through another similar event (http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm).  There would be significant damage not only to bridges, but approaches, roads, houses, buildings, etc.  The area is littered with sandboils, and the bedrock below the piers of the I-155 bridge are over 200 ft. down, but the piers were not built nearly that far.

Pretty much the entire bootheel of MO was turned into a swamp due to the events of 1811-1812 as the Little River used to be its own river system.  They had to do a Panama Canal-level drainage project (Little River Drainage District) to even make the bootheel farmable.  Lots more infrastructure and people in the area now compared to what was around in 1811-1812. (https://www.kfvs12.com/story/8222926/little-river-where-has-it-gone/)  That project created farmable land equivalent in size to the state of Delaware, so just imagine losing more than 1 state's worth of territory to the forces of nature, and then imagine that it's fairly statistically possible in our lifetimes.  We aren't beginning to fathom yet how disruptive to transportation and commerce that would be due to the density of the road connectivity in this region.  Everyone's focus seems to be on the coastlines.
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SSR_317

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2021, 02:24:23 PM »


....  Everyone's focus seems to be on the coastlines.
That's due to the bi-coastal biases of our mainstream media. To them, we're all just "flyover country".
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msunat97

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #18 on: November 11, 2021, 12:40:51 PM »


Yeah, I read an older site that had a wealth of links about liquefaction in the New Madrid Seismic Zone and the probability of the bridges up and down the Mississippi River (the southern Ohio River and northern Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers would be impacted as well) making it through another similar event (http://www.showme.net/~fkeller/quake/liquefaction.htm).  There would be significant damage not only to bridges, but approaches, roads, houses, buildings, etc.  The area is littered with sandboils, and the bedrock below the piers of the I-155 bridge are over 200 ft. down, but the piers were not built nearly that far.

Pretty much the entire bootheel of MO was turned into a swamp due to the events of 1811-1812 as the Little River used to be its own river system.  They had to do a Panama Canal-level drainage project (Little River Drainage District) to even make the bootheel farmable.  Lots more infrastructure and people in the area now compared to what was around in 1811-1812. (https://www.kfvs12.com/story/8222926/little-river-where-has-it-gone/)  That project created farmable land equivalent in size to the state of Delaware, so just imagine losing more than 1 state's worth of territory to the forces of nature, and then imagine that it's fairly statistically possible in our lifetimes.  We aren't beginning to fathom yet how disruptive to transportation and commerce that would be due to the density of the road connectivity in this region.  Everyone's focus seems to be on the coastlines.

A massive event in this area will destroy the economy.  River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export.  Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered.  I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.
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SSR_317

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2021, 03:48:57 PM »

A massive event in this area will destroy the economy.  River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export.  Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered.  I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.

Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.
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mukade

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #20 on: November 17, 2021, 06:05:13 PM »

A massive event in this area will destroy the economy.  River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export.  Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered.  I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.

Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.

Also, the FedEx Express air superhub is in Memphis.
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ysuindy

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2021, 11:01:39 PM »

4.0 quake near Poplar Bluff Wednesday evening

https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2021-11-18-02-53-03-utc-4-0-16
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MikieTimT

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2021, 11:10:31 PM »

A massive event in this area will destroy the economy.  River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export.  Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered.  I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.

Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.

Also, the FedEx Express air superhub is in Memphis.

Makes you wonder about their business continuity plans!
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ilpt4u

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #23 on: November 18, 2021, 10:00:07 AM »

A massive event in this area will destroy the economy.  River traffic may be impacted / slowed moving crops to New Orleans to export.  Cross country cargo & rail will be hampered.  I doubt the crack on the Memphis I-55 bridge woke up anyone, but it should have to the fragile nature of our bridge systems.

Not to mention the lack of adequate redundancy of highway crossings over the Mississippi in the Memphis metro area. But it will most certainly be a major hit of the whole nation's economy.

Also, the FedEx Express air superhub is in Memphis.

Makes you wonder about their business continuity plans!
I would assume part of the “backup”/disaster plan would involve rerouting at least some of that air hub traffic to their smaller, but still sizable, hub operation out of IND
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edwaleni

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Re: The New Madrid Fault Zone
« Reply #24 on: November 18, 2021, 10:45:12 AM »

4.0 quake near Poplar Bluff Wednesday evening

https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2021-11-18-02-53-03-utc-4-0-16

The bootheel has had 179 quakes in the past year. I think that 4.0 (and 2.5 aftershock) near Poplar Bluff is the highest for some time.

While the USGS thinks he is a quack, there is a guy on You Tube who has predicted several quakes in the NMFZ.

He makes his predictions based on behaviors from the Alaska and California faults. When they quake a certain way he says it pushes pressure east across the plates.

After one in California, he predicted accurately one in the New Madrid and a follow up one in North Carolina.

When one plate moves, the ones around them have to adjust themselves.
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