Next 2 largest US cities without interstate connection?

[GaryV]

Toledo-Fort Wayne is getting full freeway (only the one light at the I-469 holds up the full-freeway route).

More than just that one traffic light - there's quite a bit of US-24 that is expressway, not freeway.

[Molandfreak]

Reno   Boise
Reno   Spokane

If it weren't for Oregon's ridiculous speed limits, these wouldn't be worth the build, amirite?

[vtk]

For rankings, I propose this metric: p1p2e^(-d/D).  The variables p1, p2, and little d are obviously metro populations and distance between them. Big D is a constant, let's say 500 miles – about a good day's drive for a typical driver. Let distance be measured along the approximate non existent Interstate connection.

What if we use your metric, but instead of making Big D a constant, let it be the shortest existing interstate mileage between the cities?

The factor e^(-d/D) is the distance component of traffic demand. (I don't know if the pros use a formula like this, but to me it makes more sense than 1/d^2 for a few reasons.) Making the change you suggest, we would lose that. We would gain consideration of existing Interstates, but it wouldn't have a very strong effect on the number.

So here's a new formula that keeps my distance factor, but also considerably weakens pairs that are served by reasonable existing routes:

p1 * p2 * (1 — d1 / d0) * e ^ (-d1 / D)

Variables p1, p2, and big D are the same as before. Using population in millions is probably a good idea. Little d0 is the length of the existing freeway route (use an arbitrarily large figure if no existing all-freeway route exists) and little d1 is the length of the hypothetical direct new Interstate connection.



I'd be interested to see how some pairs involving Alaska would score relative to others discussed.

[english si]

and using vtk's value is:

something that makes a bit more sense that just a raw population thing.

Here's the top 11 - things don't look that bad.
Phoenix   San Diego: AZ85 upgrade - really not that hard to fix.
Miami   Orlando: A branding issue, rather than a deficiency of the road network!
Los Angeles   Fresno: Is this similar to Miami-Orlando now, or does CA99 need a bit more effort?
Houston   Austin: Given Texan pork further south, why isn't this proposed as a toll road, or a porky project?
Phoenix   Las Vegas: I-11.
Detroit   Columbus: They are making US23 a freeway to get Columbus - I-75 north, aren't they? Revive I-73 north of Columbus!
Detroit   Indianapolis: Given other states on I-69 are going all out on the spurs and stuff, it seems silly that IN didn't try and push the Toledo-Fort Wayne route as part of the network. If OH or IN were IL, TX or NC, this would be proposed as interstate. It's getting built to a decent standard though.
Dallas   Denver: That Fort Worth - Raton interstate. Kind of ruined by the four-lane emptiness, making upgrades pretty pointless surely?
Washington   Buffalo: I-99 pork helps, but State College - Buffalo is missing. 20 miles more via 390 and a more direct connection than I-90. Would 20 miles difference be enough to get it considered done? Buffalo - I-390 is a lot less construction than Buffalo - State College! Plus the Buffalo - I-390 connection takes just over 20 miles off the shortest interstate-only Buffalo-NYC connection (I-80, I-380, I-81, I-90).
Tampa   Jacksonville: Only about 65 miles to get a Jacksonville - I-75 connection that would do this.
Houston   Memphis: The US59 interstate in TX will sort this.

[texaskdog]

I calculated geometric mean and vtk's value for most pairs mentioned in this thread using 2000 urban area populations. Note that NYC-Philly is not a real answer; 95-195-295-76 is close enough. Jax-Tampa is also debatable; going via Orlando adds only 20 miles. And note that Brownsville excludes the Mexican side of the border (as does San Diego).

The order using geometric mean is:
Dallas   Denver
Phoenix   San Diego
Miami   Orlando
Los Angeles   Fresno
Phoenix   Las Vegas
Houston   Austin
Las Vegas   Portland
Detroit   Indianapolis
Houston   Memphis
Detroit   Columbus
Washington   Buffalo
Tampa   Jacksonville
San Francisco   Fresno
Denver   OKC
Las Vegas   Reno
Providence   Hartford
Houston   Brownsville
Memphis   Birmingham
Portland   Spokane
Pittsburgh   Scranton
San Antonio   Brownsville
Tulsa   Wichita
Reno   Spokane
Reno   Boise

and using vtk's value is:
Phoenix   San Diego
Miami   Orlando
Los Angeles   Fresno
Houston   Austin
Phoenix   Las Vegas
Detroit   Columbus
Detroit   Indianapolis
Dallas   Denver
Washington   Buffalo
Tampa   Jacksonville
Houston   Memphis
San Francisco   Fresno
Las Vegas   Portland
Providence   Hartford
Denver   OKC
Las Vegas   Reno
Houston   Brownsville
Memphis   Birmingham
Pittsburgh   Scranton
Portland   Spokane
San Antonio   Brownsville
Tulsa   Wichita
Reno   Boise
Reno   Spokane
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EB6bdnNKz49vB1XrKlk7VaIxju5QMKZyBZZhL3I6fs0/edit?usp=sharing for the full details.

What about St Paul & St Louis?

[vtk]

Detroit   Columbus: They are making US23 a freeway to get Columbus — I-75 north, aren't they? Revive I-73 north of Columbus!

They were going to. ODOT officially abandoned I-73 years ago, and doesn't seem to consider the Delaware County section to be worth fixing or bypassing. I agree this should be revived, and my I-171 proposal is probably the path of least resistance between Marion and Columbus.

[DTComposer]

I calculated geometric mean and vtk's value for most pairs mentioned in this thread using 2000 urban area populations. Note that NYC-Philly is not a real answer; 95-195-295-76 is close enough. Jax-Tampa is also debatable; going via Orlando adds only 20 miles. And note that Brownsville excludes the Mexican side of the border (as does San Diego).

The order using geometric mean is:
Dallas   Denver
Phoenix   San Diego
Miami   Orlando
Los Angeles   Fresno
Phoenix   Las Vegas
Houston   Austin
Las Vegas   Portland
Detroit   Indianapolis
Houston   Memphis
Detroit   Columbus
Washington   Buffalo
Tampa   Jacksonville
San Francisco   Fresno
Denver   OKC
Las Vegas   Reno
Providence   Hartford
Houston   Brownsville
Memphis   Birmingham
Portland   Spokane
Pittsburgh   Scranton
San Antonio   Brownsville
Tulsa   Wichita
Reno   Spokane
Reno   Boise

and using vtk's value is:
Phoenix   San Diego
Miami   Orlando
Los Angeles   Fresno
Houston   Austin
Phoenix   Las Vegas
Detroit   Columbus
Detroit   Indianapolis
Dallas   Denver
Washington   Buffalo
Tampa   Jacksonville
Houston   Memphis
San Francisco   Fresno
Las Vegas   Portland
Providence   Hartford
Denver   OKC
Las Vegas   Reno
Houston   Brownsville
Memphis   Birmingham
Pittsburgh   Scranton
Portland   Spokane
San Antonio   Brownsville
Tulsa   Wichita
Reno   Boise
Reno   Spokane
http://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EB6bdnNKz49vB1XrKlk7VaIxju5QMKZyBZZhL3I6fs0/edit?usp=sharing for the full details.

What about St Paul & St Louis?

Also, (if I did the formulas correctly) Los Angeles-San Jose would be near the top of this list based on mean.

[NE2]

San Jose is part of the Frisco urban area.

[DTComposer]

San Jose is part of the Frisco urban area.

I absolutely agree with you in real-world usage, but the Census Bureau (which is your stated source for data) does not.

[dfwmapper]

Los Angeles   Fresno: Is this similar to Miami-Orlando now, or does CA99 need a bit more effort?

CA 99 is very close to being a full freeway from I-5 to Sacramento. Substandard of course given the age of a lot of it, but close enough once they finish it all.

Houston   Austin: Given Texan pork further south, why isn't this proposed as a toll road, or a porky project?

US 290 is slowly being upgraded. Most of the big towns have been bypassed, with Giddings being the only really nasty spot left. Manor and Elgin will need some work to close off access, and it's easy to see that being an extension of the existing toll road in a few years. Something will need to be done to reconfigure the interchange with the Brenham bypass. The rest can more or less be upgraded in-place with some frontage roads and a few overpasses. SH 71 to I-10 is another simple upgrade once the toll road near the airport is done. There are already projects on the books to finish the freeway through Bastrop, which is the other troublesome spot (especially that stoplight at SH 95 near the Buc-ee's, with that overpass being on the Prop 1 list).

Dallas   Denver: That Fort Worth - Raton interstate. Kind of ruined by the four-lane emptiness, making upgrades pretty pointless surely?

Needs bypasses. Lots of bypasses.

[NE2]

San Jose is part of the Frisco urban area.

I absolutely agree with you in real-world usage, but the Census Bureau (which is your stated source for data) does not.

Hmmm, you're right. That's an interesting case.

[mrose]

Dallas   Denver: That Fort Worth - Raton interstate. Kind of ruined by the four-lane emptiness, making upgrades pretty pointless surely?

After doing this recently, both ways, I kinda wondered myself. 87 in NM is done the entire way, but it's very, very desolate. There's still that missing link around Dumas. The Amarillo outer bypass is not entirely to standard. 287 in Texas has almost no bypasses between Amarillo and Wichita Falls.

The entire route in general seems to lack a lot of services. All but 25 miles of the whole thing is four lane but it's a long, long way from being an interstate corridor.

[Zzonkmiles]

My vote goes to Jacksonville-Atlanta. Both are legitimately large cities (and the largest in their states), but because there are no cities of significance between them, we'll probably never see such a road.

[Bickendan]

I was going to say, Jacksonville bigger than Miami?! Then I actually looked up the numbers. Hell, Portland's bigger than Miami. Whaddyaknow.

[NE2]

I was going to say, Jacksonville bigger than Miami?! Then I actually looked up the numbers.

Only because Jacksonville merged with its county. Miami-Dade County has three times the population of Duval, and the Miami urban area has five times the population of the Jax urban area.

PS: Jax-Atlanta has a reasonable connection. Not the most direct, but not indirect like Vegas-Phoenix or Austin-Houston.

[texaskdog]

Dallas   Denver: That Fort Worth - Raton interstate. Kind of ruined by the four-lane emptiness, making upgrades pretty pointless surely?

After doing this recently, both ways, I kinda wondered myself. 87 in NM is done the entire way, but it's very, very desolate. There's still that missing link around Dumas. The Amarillo outer bypass is not entirely to standard. 287 in Texas has almost no bypasses between Amarillo and Wichita Falls.

The entire route in general seems to lack a lot of services. All but 25 miles of the whole thing is four lane but it's a long, long way from being an interstate corridor.

The interstate system wasn't all about current needs, or there would be no freeways in Montana or the Dakota.

[corco]

Dallas   Denver: That Fort Worth - Raton interstate. Kind of ruined by the four-lane emptiness, making upgrades pretty pointless surely?

After doing this recently, both ways, I kinda wondered myself. 87 in NM is done the entire way, but it's very, very desolate. There's still that missing link around Dumas. The Amarillo outer bypass is not entirely to standard. 287 in Texas has almost no bypasses between Amarillo and Wichita Falls.

The entire route in general seems to lack a lot of services. All but 25 miles of the whole thing is four lane but it's a long, long way from being an interstate corridor.

Most of the truck traffic doesn't go through Raton- taking 287 all the way from Denver is shorter, less mountainous, and bypasses Colorado Springs and Pueblo.

I don't know that either needs to be an interstate, but having driven both I can tell you for sure the trucks are on 287 between Denver and Dumas.

[NE2]

I don't know that either needs to be an interstate, but having driven both I can tell you for sure the trucks are on 287 between Denver and Dumas.

But not Boise City. Those trucks were elimitanted.

[roadman65]

Buffalo, NY with Baltimore and DC which we all have brought up on fictional highways too many times.

How about Wilmington, NC to Charlotte, NC?  Yes it has I-40 and I-85, but that is going out of your way.  US 74 is still your best bet and many truckers use that way, which is why many of discussed here how useless the present plan of I-74 east of Rockingham is. 

To have one following US 74 between those two cities would be more useful to the motoring public than what is on the books now.

[Scott5114]

I don't know that either needs to be an interstate, but having driven both I can tell you for sure the trucks are on 287 between Denver and Dumas.

But not Boise City. Those trucks were elimitanted.

The trucks weren't elimitanted, only their trarffic

[kphoger]

For those who are new to the party (yeah right)...

Just 287 according to the maps associated with the AASHTO filings. I'll be there in a couple weeks to properly investigate.

When you get down there you'll have to tell us whether the bypass has managed to, as ODOT said, "elimitante the truck trarffic".

[Sub-Urbanite]

Portland-Las Vegas

YES.

[Zzonkmiles]

I was going to say, Jacksonville bigger than Miami?! Then I actually looked up the numbers.

Only because Jacksonville merged with its county. Miami-Dade County has three times the population of Duval, and the Miami urban area has five times the population of the Jax urban area.

PS: Jax-Atlanta has a reasonable connection. Not the most direct, but not indirect like Vegas-Phoenix or Austin-Houston.

What is this "reasonable connection" you speak of? Not trying to be confrontational or anything. Is it I-10 to I-75? Or is it I-95 to I-16 to I-75? Or does it involve taking the US highways and state routes through Georgia?

[NE2]

I-10 to I-75. For the amount of traffic actually going between the two cities, it's good enough.

[adventurernumber1]

I-10 to I-75. For the amount of traffic actually going between the two cities, it's good enough.

Agreed. And if not taking I-10 to I-75 or I-95 to I-16 to I-75, just from my head I'd say a good alternative is US 1/US 23 to US 23 to US 341 all the way to GA 224 to I-75, and almost all of that is multi-lane.