Coronavirus pandemic

[Max Rockatansky]

The gym is the one that has me worried will be next in California.  I already did 8 days in a row of push ups, burpees, and sit ups in Mexico earlier this month which isn't something I considered much fun.  At minimum I do all my running outside and if the weather is bad I have a higher end rowing machine.

My building has shut all of our resident centers, including the gym. The weather has been good, so I'm mostly walking/jogging outside, and had been doing push-ups/crunches in my apartment anyways. Won't be lifting for a while now.

I have plenty of wet weather and winter gear.  I don't foresee myself stopping working out regardless of what gets implemented, it just might have to be heavily modified on strength training.  The last week I took off from running and lifting was back in 2010 after I got hit by a car.  That was total misery sitting around the house waiting for a Doctor to tell me that a bone they set was going to probably need surgery anyways.  I kind of regret not buying a dip bench and pull-up bar when I had the chance last year on clearance prices. 

[Chris]

There seems to be a consensus among the public that lockdowns are unacceptable. Our ridiculous media seems to think otherwise though.

The consensus could change rapidly once the gravity of the situation becomes clear. Especially at hospitals. Only a small percentage of the population needs to be infected to overwhelm the healthcare system, as ICU beds and ventilators are not vacant on any significant scale.

Italy's healthcare system already became overloaded with a few thousand confirmed cases in an area with a population of 10 million.

Many people are stubborn and don't think it will impact them, until it does and then all the sudden even these people will follow restrictions that would otherwise be unthinkable. You can see in parts of Europe where many people don't care about personal space all the sudden manage to keep 6 feet distance.

This past week in Europe shows how quickly government response and public reaction can change. Europe was pretty much operating normal even with the Italian outbreak ongoing. They thought - like Italy - that such a situation wouldn't present itself. But it did. Now everything is shut down.

This morning in the Netherlands
* traffic volumes down by around 50% despite no complete lockdown being in place (so far it is only recommended to work from home and public gatherings are banned)
* train travel is down by 85%
* our national airline has reduced flights by up to 90%

A week ago there was almost no impact on these fronts. And we have only around 1,100 cases so far.

I would say don't underestimate the impact and how quickly things can change. What is unthinkable today may not be so unthinkable tomorrow.

[stormwatch7721]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

[ixnay]

Could you please elaborate? Even with the worse scenario I fail to see how that is even remotely possible. A burden on the economy and day to day life sure. A horrible tragedy with many loosing loved ones sure. But the end of the country?

Now please note that my thoughts on this matter are PURELY SPECULATION and I know far more about photography than finance, so take this with the appropriate grains of salt.  Covid-19 alone is not going to cause the end of the country.  However, it might be pulling back the curtain on an economic and financial system that is already stressed and fragile as heck.  The stock market's roller coaster is an example of that.  There's been other stories in the past few months that suggest something unpleasant is ahead for the economy and perhaps this pandemic is just a match that lights a major bonfire.  Things are unfolding at a pace that is hard to process on a day to day basis.  After all, at no other point in modern times have all the major sports leagues shut down, giving ESPN nothing to do. 

With luck and some level headed thinking, I hope we can come out of this with a better awareness of the interconnectedness of our world, more respect for one other (even if our views on political policies differ) and better knowledge about pandemics to avoid a catastrophe if another happens.

Re the parenthesized part... don't count on it.

ixnay

[CNGL-Leudimin]

Here is Spain we cannot even take a run outside. So people have started to get creative, like that one who did 10 km (6.2 miles) in a corridor, he had to run through it a thousand times to get there. Others have done subterranean runs through their garages, up to a half marathon I've seen. I myself plan to run through home up to 250 times just to do 5 km (3.1 miles).

[kalvado]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

[Max Rockatansky]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then? 

[Plutonic Panda]

DOW dropped 2200 points. Trading halted... again

[Max Rockatansky]

Here is Spain we cannot even take a run outside. So people have started to get creative, like that one who did 10 km (6.2 miles) in a corridor, he had to run through it a thousand times to get there. Others have done subterranean runs through their garages, up to a half marathon I've seen. I myself plan to run through home up to 250 times just to do 5 km (3.1 miles).

I suppose that I could run circles in the garage but that would be incredibly boring getting to my normal Monday morning 14 mile run.  Granted I live out on the farm boons, I don't even know how any agency would be able to enforce me running through the farm roads. 

[kalvado]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Flatten the curve™
Remember, unlike flu, unknown (but significant) portion of population requires medical care.
Goal of current quarantine is not to stop it - but let initial flares die out and suppress further fast growth.
Right now, numbers of doctors, supplies, equipment barely match numbers of those in need of treatment. That leads to care rationing, triage etc - in other words, if they think you don't recover for sure - you're left to die while doctors deal with those who has a chance. They say that in Northern Italy those older than 65 (think your parents) wouldn't even get temperature taken - they are written off.

Right now the goal is to make sure those who will get sick, will do so over time and not overwhelm capacity.

As for your running on farm roads - I don't see the problem. I, for one, don't think anyone will have problem with me working in my 1 acre backyard.
Problem is with those going for coffee after  the run.

A fascinating story of ONE person leading to uncontained outbreak in Korea
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html

[kalvado]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

And - once lockdown is lifted, expect fever checkpoints all over the place, busting recommended quarantine becoming a crime punishable by weeks of arrest (in guarded quarantine unit, of course) and medical students graduating and getting licensed early (with restricted license, maybe). 

[DaBigE]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

Another not quite perfect road analogy is ramp metering. By quarantining, you slow the volume of sick reaching the limited medical supplies (freeway). Without the meter, everything backs up, no one goes anywhere, and you end up with gridlock. There still is a backup with the meter, but at least you have a decent flow of traffic.

[Plutonic Panda]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

Another not quite perfect road analogy is ramp metering. By quarantining, you slow the volume of sick reaching the limited medical supplies (freeway). Without the meter, everything backs up, no one goes anywhere, and you end up with gridlock. There still is a backup with the meter, but at least you have a decent flow of traffic.

not a good analogy lol... in LA the meter let's you out to a horribly congested freeway.

[kalvado]

I have a feeling this won't get contained

LGL322DL

People realized that a while ago. Now this is "flatten the curve", let initial flares of cases to die out, keep it low after 2-3-4 weeks of lockdown.
UK eslitates 80% will get sick, sooner or later, and probably everyone has a similar number in mind. Hopefully back to almost normal in summer 2022.

If they are estimating 80% what is the point of quarantining at all then?

Oh, since we're on a roadgeek forum... think about road backup caused by everyone  commuting at the same time. Now highway entrances will be closed, while they work to stagger shifts and urgently building new road (treatment and/or vaccine).
Building road in one day is unrealistic, but analogy is fairly close.

Another not quite perfect road analogy is ramp metering. By quarantining, you slow the volume of sick reaching the limited medical supplies (freeway). Without the meter, everything backs up, no one goes anywhere, and you end up with gridlock. There still is a backup with the meter, but at least you have a decent flow of traffic.

not a good analogy lol... in LA the meter let's you out to a horribly congested freeway.

Which will still be the case with the virus, though.

[webny99]

Interesting video here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-shouldnt-hope-covid-19-is-seasonal-like-the-flu/
And article here:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-may-make-millions-of-americans-sick-but-we-only-have-about-100000-ventilators/

"It's not a question of whether you're going to recover or not, it's a question of whether you're going to spread it to someone who doesn't."
I think that captures the current moment quite well, especially for those of us under 60-65 that aren't necessarily at high risk.

[webny99]

Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

[Max Rockatansky]

Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

They've been closed out here on the West Coast.   

[LM117]

Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

They've been closed out here on the West Coast.

Same here in VA and NC. Both governors ordered them to close for 2 weeks.

[NWI_Irish96]

Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

Everything that is not work from home should be closed except the following:
Health Care
Public Safety
Public Utilities
Government Services
Grocery Stores
Gas Stations
Drug Stores
Restaurants (delivery, drive-thru and carryout only)

[Max Rockatansky]

Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?
I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

They've been closed out here on the West Coast.

Same here in VA and NC. Both governors ordered them to close for 2 weeks.

Most of them did it on their own.  I think Stanislaus County might still be in session?

[J N Winkler]

The gym is the one that has me worried will be next in California.  I already did 8 days in a row of push ups, burpees, and sit ups in Mexico earlier this month which isn't something I considered much fun.  At minimum I do all my running outside and if the weather is bad I have a higher end rowing machine.

We have just eight confirmed cases in Kansas, of which just one is reasonably local (Butler County), but my gym is closed indefinitely (reviewable daily) as of today.

Our public library is still open, but I think it's an even chance we will close by the end of this week.  At least three others in Kansas have closed (Andover, Manhattan, and Johnson County).

Any thoughts here on the debate as to whether schools should remain open?

I'm actually a bit torn about it, so interested to hear other's thoughts.

In Kansas, the state BOE is encouraging school districts to close.  My big concern with school closure in general has to do with feeding kids who qualify for free school lunches.

[Max Rockatansky]

Speaking of the gym, it was another ghost town this morning.  Mostly just the regulars were present again, most of the casual cardio people are long gone.  I want to say the owner was manning the front desk this morning?  I only met the guy once but it looks like the majority of his staff got sent home aside from the janitors. 

I did run around 6 AM this morning since it's hard to see in the rain in the dark.  The streets were pretty empty given there was no school traffic out and about. 

[Max Rockatansky]

Something that has changed is my wife has gotten pretty concerned about her Grandma and Dad having access to supplies given they live in a remote town.  We went to get stuff for them yesterday and found that there local market had plenty of stock on-hand.  Much of the produce and meats comes from local farms/ranches in stores that aren't chain based (one in particular comes to mind is Vallarta) .  I kind of have noticed something similar at least locally around the Fresno Area that anything that isn't a giant chain like Walmart and Costco has a very reasonable chance at having stock on-hand.  Even most of the food trucks and stands that I normally see out in the farm lands are still operating as per usual. 

I'm to understand that the exchange rate between the U.S. Dollar and the Peso recently shot up from $17.70 to $23.  We haven't really heard much of anything from family down in Mexico other than closing school was discussed. 

[J N Winkler]

Our public library is still open, but I think it's an even chance we will close by the end of this week.  At least three others in Kansas have closed (Andover, Manhattan, and Johnson County).

Posted too soon.  The email has just landed--we are closed from tomorrow, March 17.  Today is going to be a Gadarene rush to stock up on books.

[1995hoo]