Coronavirus pandemic

[tolbs17]

New York state is on lockdown - and I think it's time to lock this thread too. GOOD!

The coronavirus discussion seems kind of scary and it gets old fast - I'm going back to roads.

EDIT: not saying it should be locked now, but if it turns into a debate or flaming thread or devolves into personal attacks, that's when it does need to be locked. Just saying.

-Tolbs

[kalvado]

New York state is on lockdown - and I think it's time to lock this thread too. GOOD!

The coronavirus discussion seems kind of scary and it gets old fast - I'm going back to roads.

EDIT: not saying it should be locked now, but if it turns into a debate or flaming thread or devolves into personal attacks, that's when it does need to be locked. Just saying.

-Tolbs

Problem is that this is real. It is an event of decade, if not of the century. it's not something minor which will resolve itself somehow. It will affect most of us. Think 9/11 as a scalebar.
Actually 9/11 is a minor thing in comparison to what is going on. There are already more dead and more economic damage than 9/11 did, and worst is still to come.
Now back to the roads while they are still open.

[jeffandnicole]

New York state is on lockdown - and I think it's time to lock this thread too. GOOD!

The coronavirus discussion seems kind of scary and it gets old fast - I'm going back to roads.

Apparently you don't get the concept of "off-topic"

[Scott5114]

This is nowhere near as dull and repetitive as the DST threads.

[wxfree]

THE END IS NEAR!

Or is that the beginning?

[Max Rockatansky]

THE END IS NEAR!

Or is that the beginning?

I'm watching a documentary on the Swing Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

[DaBigE]

U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus

full story

The surge in warnings coincided with a move by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million

[J N Winkler]

Yet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  I'm not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.

I suspect modeling was used that he did not understand himself and he had no-one present who did, or whom he cared to have try to explain when cameras were running.  However, an increase from 1006 cases now (per Wikipedia) to 25.5 million 56 days later is consistent with a 19.8% daily growth rate.  That is slightly lower than the average daily growth rate California has experienced since it entered the pattern of daily increase in case count on March 4.

Regarding 1918, isn't that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I don't seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.

The US response has been delayed and confounded by tactical errors that, in the context of exponential growth, have grave strategic implications.  I think there is a real possibility (as I understand Kalvado to be suggesting) that a share of those in charge are in despair, trying to control the damage instead of aiming for complete stop of spread as has been achieved in Hubei, and mounting a show of diligence to limit any political repercussions to themselves.  This is a dynamic that has been especially blatant in the UK with the "herd immunity" plan, which was a way of seeming to maintain control over the situation while allowing the disease to run its course.

While all US states are subject to the same unforgiving logic of exponential growth, the inland states are mostly better positioned to deal with it because their first cases are emerging late and they are proceeding to shutdown early.

I'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.

[wxfree]

I'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.

In "That 70s Show," when Eric is about to go to Africa, he's given a survival guide.  Kitty was understandably upset, and pointed out that there is no survival guide for Wisconsin.  This made me think about that, and of course there is a lot of biodiversity in tropical regions, and the more different kinds of life there are, the more kinds that might be dangerous.  Standing drunk and blindfolded and throwing an arrow to see where it lands, I wonder if it might have to do with mutations caused by high UV exposure over the eons, since that seems to have an effect on DNA.

[Brian556]

Yet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  I’m not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.

I suspect modeling was used that he did not understand himself and he had no-one present who did, or whom he cared to have try to explain when cameras were running.  However, an increase from 1006 cases now (per Wikipedia) to 25.5 million 56 days later is consistent with a 19.8% daily growth rate.  That is slightly lower than the average daily growth rate California has experienced since it entered the pattern of daily increase in case count on March 4.

Regarding 1918, isn’t that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I don’t seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.

The US response has been delayed and confounded by tactical errors that, in the context of exponential growth, have grave strategic implications.  I think there is a real possibility (as I understand Kalvado to be suggesting) that a share of those in charge are in despair, trying to control the damage instead of aiming for complete stop of spread as has been achieved in Hubei, and mounting a show of diligence to limit any political repercussions to themselves.  This is a dynamic that has been especially blatant in the UK with the "herd immunity" plan, which was a way of seeming to maintain control over the situation while allowing the disease to run its course.

While all US states are subject to the same unforgiving logic of exponential growth, the inland states are mostly better positioned to deal with it because their first cases are emerging late and they are proceeding to shutdown early.

I'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.

I have read news reports that state that COVID-19 originated at at "wet market", which is where animals are bought and sold. If I remember correctly, that report also stated that some of the other diseases/viruses of the last 10-20 years also started at these. China needs to shut these down. When this is all said and done, I can imagine that the entire world will be extremely angry with China, and I'm wondering how and if they will try to penalize the Chinese government for this. Surely there will be tighter controls on travel to and from China after this is over.

[kalvado]

Yet refrained from explaining how that conclusion was drawn when asked.  I'm not saying anything one way or another, but I am curious how that math was figured.

I suspect modeling was used that he did not understand himself and he had no-one present who did, or whom he cared to have try to explain when cameras were running.  However, an increase from 1006 cases now (per Wikipedia) to 25.5 million 56 days later is consistent with a 19.8% daily growth rate.  That is slightly lower than the average daily growth rate California has experienced since it entered the pattern of daily increase in case count on March 4.

Regarding 1918, isn't that not what people are trying to avoid?  Regardless of what any of might think I don't seriously believe anyone at any level of governance wants a repeat of the Spanish Flu.

The US response has been delayed and confounded by tactical errors that, in the context of exponential growth, have grave strategic implications.  I think there is a real possibility (as I understand Kalvado to be suggesting) that a share of those in charge are in despair, trying to control the damage instead of aiming for complete stop of spread as has been achieved in Hubei, and mounting a show of diligence to limit any political repercussions to themselves.  This is a dynamic that has been especially blatant in the UK with the "herd immunity" plan, which was a way of seeming to maintain control over the situation while allowing the disease to run its course.

While all US states are subject to the same unforgiving logic of exponential growth, the inland states are mostly better positioned to deal with it because their first cases are emerging late and they are proceeding to shutdown early.

I'm watching a documentary on the Swine Flu outbreak from 2009.  If you want a couple interesting statistics, there was 12,469 deaths in the United States that year from H1N1.  The world death total by most conservative estimates was well over 200,000.  So the real question you ought to be asking is, after this pandemic runs its course when will the next one pop up?

It is just a matter of time.  And I think the odds of it coming from China are better than even.  I do not think this is anything to do with the Chinese people.  The country has the bulk of its territorial extent in humid tropical latitudes, it is tightly integrated into the world economy, and its population is distributed in such a fashion that new microbes can easily jump from animals to people.  It is my suspicion (though I am not aware it has yet been researched) that disease agents interact with the latitudinal diversity gradient in such a way that new diseases are more likely to come from the tropics.

I have read news reports that state that COVID-19 originated at at "wet market", which is where animals are bought and sold. If I remember correctly, that report also stated that some of the other diseases/viruses of the last 10-20 years also started at these. China needs to shut these down. When this is all said and done, I can imagine that the entire world will be extremely angry with China, and I'm wondering how and if they will try to penalize the Chinese government for this. Surely there will be tighter controls on travel to and from China after this is over.

Presumed Western hygiene doesn't preclude deer hunting, not dangerous animal-trsnsmitted disease as rabies and leprocy.
It took decades to put TB under control. Some with drug resistant TB getting out of isolation was a big deal. We narrowly avoided Ebola runaway in US when infected person ended up traveling by plane.
Infection control is much more difficult than it sounds. 

[rickmastfan67]

I'm sick of the China, Italy and 1918 comparisons. Just lock the topic

If you want, I could create a new 'member' group that hides OT from you completely......  But then you would have to ask at a later time to be removed from that group to access this section again. (Creating the group is something I don't want to have to do.)

So, I'd just ignore the thread if you don't want to read it.

[JoePCool14]

Locking this topic would be ridiculous, considering how all the shutdowns or panic are affecting just about everyone everywhere in some fashion. If you don't want to deal with this topic...

Don't look at it!

[kwellada]

On a less grim note, here is a video on what people used to do before toilet paper became a thing:

Simon Whistler likely never leaves his home because of how many videos he churns out on his various channels. This guy makes a living out of natural social distancing! 

[ghYHZ]

Do y'all have 'Tap to Pay' down there?

Went for groceries this morning......used self-checkout and just Tapped to Pay with my credit card.

Picked up a coffee at Tims and again just Tapped to Pay.

No Hockey on TV tonight but we've got beer and will probably order a pizza anyway. I'll tell the delivery guy what to add for a tip....then I'll just tap the device.

I haven't touched a bill or change in days.

[kwellada]

Washington Governor Jay Inslee using traffic data to demonstrate a lack of social distancing.  I wonder if that takes into account the lack of reduction in truck traffic.  Not many trucks would take the HOT lane, so there's that.  Tomorrow I plan on driving to the Nisqually Wildlife Refuge, but I don't plan on going near any person.

I haven't left the house for anything other than trips to the grocery store or pharmacy in a couple weeks.  But, given the spring weather, I do want see some nature to alleviate the boredom.  I've been plotting out potential destinations where I don't have to interact with any other people at all, so essentially anywhere that I can do the roundtrip on a single tank of gas and not need to find food at any point (I can bring ham sandwiches). 

So the point is that I can remain socially distant and still take my car somewhere.  (Maybe...the haze in the air is killing my allergies)

[Max Rockatansky]

^^^

I have something like that in mind for myself revisiting some old remote wilderness roads like Bitterwater Road, Soda Lake Road, and Pozo Road in California.  I did a proof of concept two weeks ago on the Parkfield Grade and only ended up seeing 1 other person.  Very much socially distant with some very much enjoyed quiet driving.  I kind of suspect much of the San Andreas Fault will he highly valued this year by people in the know with early wet Spring this year. 

On a less grim note, here is a video on what people used to do before toilet paper became a thing:

Simon Whistler likely never leaves his home because of how many videos he churns out on his various channels. This guy makes a living out of natural social distancing!

The guy really does have an absurd amount of channels and videos.  There was one I was watching at breakfast today about the legality of cannibalism. 

[US71]

Do y'all have 'Tap to Pay' down there?

Went for groceries this morning......used self-checkout and just Tapped to Pay with my credit card.

Picked up a coffee at Tims and again just Tapped to Pay.

No Hockey on TV tonight but we've got beer and will probably order a pizza anyway. I'll tell the delivery guy what to add for a tip....then I'll just tap the device.

I haven't touched a bill or change in days.

Not everyone here has Tap to Pay, but Wally World has self checkouts.

[Max Rockatansky]

Speaking of beer, I'm actually surprised at how much of it is available.  I picked up a twelve pack of Reds and a six pack of Mike's the other day when I was shopping for weight sets.  I would have thought alcohol would have had a higher selling rate given people were essentially prepping to be inside. 

[Revive 755]

I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois.

[ghYHZ]

Speaking of beer, I'm actually surprised at how much of it is available.

Here you get you Beer, Liquor and Cannabis in the same Government store . There's lineups for all and they're restricting how many in the store for social distancing.......but no price gouging.

[kalvado]

I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois.

What is the point of the split?
I can see megalopolis shrinkage after all this, NYC and Bay area in particular, but that is a different story

[Max Rockatansky]

I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois.

What is the point of the split?
I can see megalopolis shrinkage after all this, NYC and Bay area in particular, but that is a different story

There definitely has been a huge advantage to be living in a rural area  through out what is actively going on.  In regards to the Bay Area that was reaching unsustainable level anyways giving the skyrocketing home prices and urban sprawl to San Juan County.  The major problem with expecting an urban exodus is that most of the desirable modern jobs that people want are still going to be in a major urban area. 

[bandit957]

Gentrification had been ruining my city over the past few years. But a few days ago, I saw an article that said coronavirus has pretty much permanently killed the "renaissance" the city has had. Real estate values are going to plummet, but they were artificially high in the first place because of the price fixing by gentrification land pirates, so they need to come down.

[kalvado]

I'm wondering if there will be new/revitalized efforts to split some of the states after the pandemic.  Particularly Illinois.

What is the point of the split?
I can see megalopolis shrinkage after all this, NYC and Bay area in particular, but that is a different story

There definitely has been a huge advantage to be living in a rural area  through out what is actively going on.  In regards to the Bay Area that was reaching unsustainable level anyways giving the skyrocketing home prices and urban sprawl to San Juan County.  The major problem with expecting an urban exodus is that most of the desirable modern jobs that people want are still going to be in a major urban area.

If remote work wouldn't become the norm.
I can even see a half-way solution, when lots of remote offices operate as real offices (attendance, discipline, etc) with a lot of telecommute to headquarters.