Coronavirus pandemic

[NWI_Irish96]

The daily hospitalizations in NYC are lower today than they were on March 20th when Cuomo ordered a statewide lockdown.  It took about two weeks for daily hospitalizations to plateau once the lockdown was in effect (as it can take up to 14 days for symptoms to develop).   



Even if daily hospitalizations surpass 626 per day upon reopening the NYC economy, there are several reasons to believe the next wave of infections won't be as bad as the first wave:

#1.  Masks will be required to be worn when out in public, slowing the infection rate.
#2.  Social distancing guidelines will stay in effect, slowing the infection rate.
#3.  There is an estimated 21% immunity to the virus in NYC, slowing the infection rate.
#4.  The fear of this virus will keep many people from venturing out in public, slowing the infection rate.

Reopen the NYC economy and keep a close track of the daily hospitalizations.  If daily hospitalizations stay under 626, i think the city will be in good shape.  But if it does surpass 626, then lock the economy down again (knowing that locking things down at this level on March 20 was effective at preventing daily hospitalizations from overwhelming the heathcare system).

You realize that reopening NYC is impossible without crammed subway -  where social distancing of 1" is a pipe dream?

Until we have a vaccine, those that can work from home are going to have to continue working from home, leaving more room for those who can't to keep their distance from each other.  Businesses are also going to have to stagger shifts away from the normal times to try to cut down on peaks.

[Max Rockatansky]

Speaking of vaccines what is the actual latest on that anyways?  A lot of people seem to think that they can count on a vaccine but there hasn't been much in the news about that I've found as of late.  Besides, even if there was a vaccine it would take months and possibly even years to be mass produced in large enough to be the so called "cure-all"  a lot are touting it to be.  A year or longer is way too late to have large segments of any economy sitting around idle, there would have to be some of gradual return to normalcy. 

[Roadgeekteen]

Speaking of vaccines what is the actual latest on that anyways?  A lot of people seem to think that they can count on a vaccine but there hasn't been much in the news about that I've found as of late.  Besides, even if there was a vaccine it would take months and possibly even years to be mass produced in large enough to be the so called "cure-all"  a lot are touting it to be.  A year or longer is way too late to have large segments of any economy sitting around idle, there would have to be some of gradual return to normalcy.

There is a vaccine that showed promise in monkeys.

[kalvado]

Speaking of vaccines what is the actual latest on that anyways?  A lot of people seem to think that they can count on a vaccine but there hasn't been much in the news about that I've found as of late.  Besides, even if there was a vaccine it would take months and possibly even years to be mass produced in large enough to be the so called "cure-all"  a lot are touting it to be.  A year or longer is way too late to have large segments of any economy sitting around idle, there would have to be some of gradual return to normalcy.

I heard about a few clinical trials. This search produces 4 on the first page (3 in China, 1 in UK) - and I didn't go past first page.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=covid+vaccine&Search=Search
Production, when it comes to that, would have to use flu vaccine pipeline, I assume.
ANd yes, a year is too late, and we'll have to get creative in reopening things slowly and carefuly.

[LM117]

The mayor of Beaumont, TX was caught violating the stay-at-home order. Rules for thee, but not for me...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/texas-mayor-apologizes-after-violating-stay-home-order-go-nail-n1192631

[Max Rockatansky]

The mayor of Beaumont, TX was caught violating the stay-at-home order. Rules for thee, but not for me...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/texas-mayor-apologizes-after-violating-stay-home-order-go-nail-n1192631

Couldn't she just have paid someone in cash to come to her home if that was so important?  People might still call BS if they see the interaction but if it's behind closed doors of a residence so who's to say?  Either way, getting nails done seems like a pretty low priority.  Now haircuts on the other hand, that's getting interesting over here with all the barbers closed.  People have been suddenly buying up hair clippers left and right, my brother even resorted to shaving his head. 

[Duke87]

The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Just like the first statement by the WHO about "no evidence", they could easily be wrong.

From what I understand, there is evidence for it, but there is also evidence against it.

WHO is being overly cautious in their stance on this.

It is true that there is a lack of empirical data regarding how much resistance or immunity people who've gotten sick and survived have for covid specifically.

It is, however, a well understood fact about viruses in general that the body forms immunity against them after being infected. This is why vaccines work. So logically the same should be true of covid.

The catch is that viruses *can* thwart this immunity by mutating - this is why flu shots need to be readministered annually and are only so effective; influenza viruses mutate rapidly and so people's immunity to them fades over time as they become more and more dissimilar to what the body recognizes as what they caught before.

Covid is also mutating, which raises prospect of the same thing becoming a problem and is part of why WHO is taking the stance they are - but, fortunately, it does not appear to be mutating as rapidly as influenza does.

[kalvado]

The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Just like the first statement by the WHO about "no evidence", they could easily be wrong.

From what I understand, there is evidence for it, but there is also evidence against it.

WHO is being overly cautious in their stance on this.

It is true that there is a lack of empirical data regarding how much resistance or immunity people who've gotten sick and survived have for covid specifically.

It is, however, a well understood fact about viruses in general that the body forms immunity against them after being infected. This is why vaccines work. So logically the same should be true of covid.

The catch is that viruses *can* thwart this immunity by mutating - this is why flu shots need to be readministered annually and are only so effective; influenza viruses mutate rapidly and so people's immunity to them fades over time as they become more and more dissimilar to what the body recognizes as what they caught before.

Covid is also mutating, which raises prospect of the same thing becoming a problem and is part of why WHO is taking the stance they are - but, fortunately, it does not appear to be mutating as rapidly as influenza does.

Its not only about infection, it is about prior knowledge:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1038/emi.2017.44
There was evidence of reinfection of camels (by MERS) that were previously seropositive, thus suggesting that prior infection does not provide complete immunity from reinfection
https://www.jci.org/articles/view/18819
In animals, reinfection with coronaviruses is common, with or without disease symptoms.

To me it sounds that personal immunity may be there, but herd immunity is difficult at immune individual still can get sick (albeit mildly)

[Roadgeekteen]

When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

[kphoger]

Wow...  I've been away for a few weeks, and this thread has 30+ pages of unread posts.  I got through a couple, then gave up.

Anyway, I see that earlier conversation briefly touched on cases per population, which is something I hardly ever see in the news.  Raw totals aren't really very useful when it comes to comparing different places, so why aren't people talking about per-population numbers more?

For the one on the left, I got the list of total confirmed cases of COVID-19, then took the top 49 countries, then ranked them based by total confirmed cases per 100,000 people.  To be clear:  there are countries with higher rates per 100,000 people, but I did it this way for two reasons:
  (1) I didn't feel like doing the math for every single country, and
  (2) I figured that countries with few cases would skew the results too much.

Reason #2, for example, is why I capped it at 49 instead of 50:  I thought Luxembourg (a small, urban nation) being at the top of the list would be less useful than simply leaving it out of the data.



Things to note:

  (1) For all the talk about how Sweden (kept the country going) has done so much worse than Norway (enforced more stringent shutdown measures), their per-population numbers are actually quite comparable.

  (2) China has a huge population.  It ranked 45th out of 49.  Would be even lower if I had included more countries.

  (3) Some smaller-population countries that aren't super-urban still do top the list, such as Belgium and Ireland, yet I haven't heard much in the news about them.

  (4) Numbers in New York state are approaching 1 confirmed case per 70 people.  Massachusetts, currently in 3rd place, isn't even half that rate.

  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.



As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:

At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?

[bandit957]

When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some states have already, or are about to.

Ohio is saying May 1 and is acting very firm about it, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[kphoger]

It is, however, a well understood fact about viruses in general that the body forms immunity against them after being infected. This is why vaccines work. So logically the same should be true of covid.

The catch is that viruses *can* thwart this immunity by mutating - this is why flu shots need to be readministered annually and are only so effective; influenza viruses mutate rapidly and so people's immunity to them fades over time as they become more and more dissimilar to what the body recognizes as what they caught before.

Covid is also mutating, which raises prospect of the same thing becoming a problem and is part of why WHO is taking the stance they are - but, fortunately, it does not appear to be mutating as rapidly as influenza does.

This.

If someone gets re-infected with COVID, then it's likely they actually caught what is basically a different strain.

[kphoger]

When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.

[Max Rockatansky]

When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some counties in California have begun loosening restrictions already, but they are mainly things like; beaches, skiing areas, and golf courses.  I'm glad the outdoor activities have been coming back first.  The pressure will be really on the NPS here in Central California to reopen probably starting in May.  Personally I don't think Los Angeles County should be driving what the rest of the state is doing but it seems to be what the Governor is going with.  So far the state has only loosened it's grip on allowing elective surgeries. 

[US71]

When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

At a million different times, depending on where you are.  States, counties, cities, and even companies will all do it differently.

Arkansas never has, but our governor will allow dental procedures starting May 18. 

[Roadgeekteen]

When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some counties in California have begun loosening restrictions already, but they are mainly things like; beaches, skiing areas, and golf courses.  I'm glad the outdoor activities have been coming back first.  The pressure will be really on the NPS here in Central California to reopen probably starting in May.  Personally I don't think Los Angeles County should be driving what the rest of the state is doing but it seems to be what the Governor is going with.  So far the state has only loosened it's grip on allowing elective surgeries.

Unfortunately, MA seems to be an epicenter so it could take longer.

[bandit957]

Unfortunately, MA seems to be an epicenter so it could take longer.

Massachusetts has been doing gobs of tests and contact tracing the past week. They're detecting cases no other state would ever detect.

[Max Rockatansky]

When do you guys think that the stay at home order will end?

Some counties in California have begun loosening restrictions already, but they are mainly things like; beaches, skiing areas, and golf courses.  I'm glad the outdoor activities have been coming back first.  The pressure will be really on the NPS here in Central California to reopen probably starting in May.  Personally I don't think Los Angeles County should be driving what the rest of the state is doing but it seems to be what the Governor is going with.  So far the state has only loosened it's grip on allowing elective surgeries.

Unfortunately, MA seems to be an epicenter so it could take longer.

The problem on the eastern seaboard is everyone is so packed atop each other that it makes it difficult to open things back up.  Out west the bigger cities (aside San Francisco) are spread out.  Los Angeles County is by far the hardest hit spot in California.  There are a couple counties still (I believe Mariposa was one) that don't even have a reported case. 

[oscar]

  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all. Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and the city is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.

[jakeroot]

As for the act of banning religious gatherings...  My father (who is a retired pastor) put it this way:

At a time when people are facing fear, sickness, and death, you're going to keep them away from church?  Can you imagine what our founding fathers would have to say about that?  When do people need church more than when they're facing fear, sickness, and death?

As someone who is religious, but does not attend church: you just to lean into your faith a bit. If you're actually facing sickness, and death, you definitely should not be near other people. That will cause further sickness and death. If your fear is strong, that's totally understandable, but why not simply call your pastor or bishop? Or even hold a Zoom conference. Churches near me have been ordered shut by the State of Washington, but have largely moved to electronic sermons. Maybe we can't touch and hold each other, but for the sake of everyone else (religious or not), that's probably a good thing.

[oscar]

Or even hold a Zoom conference.

Or, for the less tech-savvy, a drive-in service with the church using a low-power radio transmitter so churchgoers can listen on their car radios. Drive-in services have been hassled by some local authorities, but hopefully the Attorney General's forceful intervention in those cases will stop that nonsense.

Not a complete substitute for services with hugs and other personal contact (like what I'm accustomed to), but it will help the church keep its members alive until this all blows over.

[Max Rockatansky]

  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all. Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City and ) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.

I wish there was similar measures here in California as I was trying to highlight with the differences between the urban counties versus rural. One size fits all doesn't exactly apply when you're talking about states like Wyoming or somewhere as far flung as say Sierra County. 

Interestingly here in California one of the largest rural outbreaks was in Mono County at Mammoth.  The outbreak was caused by non-locals from the Los Angeles Area trying to hunker down at second homes and ski resorts.  As if Mono County needed another reason to despise the Los Angeles Basin after the L.A. Aqueduct.   One of the reasons Mariposa County doesn't have any cases out in the western Sierras was local pressure to close Yosemite which kept tourists away. 

[bandit957]

I like the idea of drive-in religious services.

Right now I'd be terrified to attend an indoor service.

[Max Rockatansky]

I like the idea of drive-in religious services.

Right now I'd be terrified to attend an indoor service.

What about drive thru confessions?   Apparently that's actually a thing amusingly:

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/catholic-diocese-of-pittsburgh-drive-thru-confessions/

Those should start up in Florida, it would add a whole new wrinkle to the "McChurch"  format down there. 

[bing101]

  (5) Talk show hosts need to quit scolding Wyoming for not issuing a statewide stay-at-home order.  Seriously, they already flattened what little curve they ever had.

South Dakota, too, which still doesn't have a statewide order, despite a highly-publicized outbreak in Sioux Falls in the southeast corner of the state. But it does have a state order covering the two counties with about 90% of the state's cases. Meanwhile, the three counties in the northwestern corner of the state have no known cases at all. Many of the other counties in the western half of the state have no known cases or just one or two. One of the exceptions (Pennington County, including Rapid City and ) has only 11 cases (out of over 2000 statewide) and is considering relaxing its local restrictions.

I like the governor's resistance to the statewide order bandwagon, and her focus on where restrictions are most needed and a lighter (not no) touch where they aren't needed so far.

I wish there was similar measures here in California as I was trying to highlight with the differences between the urban counties versus rural. One size fits all doesn't exactly apply when you're talking about states like Wyoming or somewhere as far flung as say Sierra County. 

Interestingly here in California one of the largest rural outbreaks was in Mono County at Mammoth.  The outbreak was caused by non-locals from the Los Angeles Area trying to hunker down at second homes and ski resorts.  As if Mono County needed another reason to despise the Los Angeles Basin after the L.A. Aqueduct.   One of the reasons Mariposa County doesn't have any cases out in the western Sierras was local pressure to close Yosemite which kept tourists away.

Dang I had no Idea there was the Mammoth lakes outbreak though. This has to be one of many unreported cases out there of COVID-19 cases.

It's just that in here in NorCal all of the attention has been directed at Solano County, CA extending their Shelter in Place orders until May 17th.

https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/solano-county-stay-home-order/
Also the City of San Francisco is considering extending their Shelter in Place orders.
https://www.ktvu.com/news/san-francisco-shelter-in-place-order-very-likely-to-be-extended

https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article242129761.html
If you are wondering why some counties in California are either already extending shelter in place or debating Shelter in place orders. Yes the recent protests in Downtown Sacramento demanding California to reopen is one factor here and the spike rumors have been at play here