Coronavirus pandemic

[1995hoo]

Or maybe the people responding to the poll think the one-way aisle arrows are kind of a joke (as they are in my area, even though it's a regional coronavirus hotspot -- nice idea in theory, but not working as well as envisioned), and "checkout line Xs" (unclear what that means, but I assume it's markers six feet apart) are helpful reminders but not as dependable as using your shopping cart to create space or giving the "stink eye" to anyone getting too close.

The one-way stuff at stores is a joke for numerous reasons.  First off, almost no store actually attempts to enforce the one-way aisles which makes sense when you think about it.  How can a store that is probably already hurting over spending on payroll possibly staff people to hunt down rule violators in store aisles...or even the six foot stand of spaces?  IMO the signage itself it usually inconsistent and really poorly placed, sometimes I've found myself walking the wrong way only to realize it after I leave the aisle.  The visual placement in most retailers isn't really oriented for highlighting safety signage and it is showing right now.  I kind of always wished there would be far more standardization in the retail industry in terms of safety signage, it is generally basic across the board and far from universal.  The basic ANSI stuff is usually around but there isn't much out there universal for things like foot traffic control.

At the Dillons (Kroger affiliate) near me, there are six-foot markings at the checkouts but the aisles are still two-way.  I would like them to remain so since I find I am better able to keep my distance if I can reverse out when the way forward is blocked by people searching for the specific item they want.



.

See that's what I've noticed too, people just end up back tracking into each other with all the confusing signage all over.  Most grocery store aisles are wide enough that people could get past each other fairly easily if left to their own whims.  The worst is when the same thing is attempted in a Soft Lines and Hard Lines setting, those aisles tend to be about 6-8 wide.  Then again those aisles usually aren't all that busy so it makes me wonder why bothering at all?  For what it's worth it seems like managing the number of people in the store like Costco does is a far better way to keep people from each than one-way aisles. 

One of the things that struck me when I went to Wegmans is that their checkout system is working really well–they have everyone form a single line for the regular checkouts (and a separate line for the self-checkouts) and at the front of the line an employee directs people to the next available lane. The line itself has markings on the floor showing how far apart you should stand. But the past two times I've gone there, the person behind me on line has been a "cart puller"–one of those people who pulls his cart around the store, instead of pushing it, and then wants to stand in front of his cart while waiting on line for the checkout. Totally defeats the purpose of trying to stand six feet apart.

On Sunday I went to Giant instead because the weather was nasty–Wegmans has a line to enter the store and it's not under a roof, whereas Giant has a roof over the sidewalk out front. Wegmans is a much better store, but Giant has the self-scan things, so I scanned and bagged everything as I walked around the store and then used the self-checkout without having to scan anything other than the barcode on the self-scanner unit. Much faster. I noted Giant had removed the one-way markings on the floor (people were ignoring them anyway). I asked the chain's management about it via Twitter and they said they will contact the store to ask what the deal is.

[jeffandnicole]

Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

So due to the actions of one person, you won't go back to the entire supermarket?  What if he turned the same way you were going to turn at the end of the aisle?  What if there were other people behind you - would he be able to just duck back into the aisle?  What if he goes to a different supermarket next time...are you going to start writing off every supermarket in the region avoiding the one guy who looked at his phone in the supermarket?

Had to deal with one-way aisles at Safeway.  Was following someone and he got to almost the end of the aisle, and stopped.  He chose that time to check his texts.  He didn't seem to be getting shopping advice, he was just checking his texts.  He could have gone past the end of the aisle and ducked back in to the very end if he needed something there.  That would have been more socially acceptable than blocking the aisle.  I won't be going back there soon.

Someone upthread wondered if movie theaters would open again soon.  I found evidence of one indoor theater and several drive-ins showing movies now.  With few new releases, they are resorting to classics like Back To the Future, E. T., Grease and "Officers and a Gentleman."  Either that's a misprint, or it's the gay adult film version of that movie.

Will movie theaters be able to turn a profit with socially distanced seats?

If they could, they would have to thoroughly clean out the place between each movie. The time it takes to do this would most likely take away from some of the time the theater forces people to watch previews anyway. Heck, some shows will have plenty of open seats to spare.

Advertisers are paying for those previews before a movie.  By eliminating these previews you're gonna have movie tickets going up higher, or movie theatres to go out of business faster. 

To the question of if movie theatres turning a profit by distancing people - that's a huge concern in many industries.  Restaurants will have to eliminate tables.  Bowling alleys can only place people every 2 or 3 lanes apart.  Stores may continue to reduce occupancy inside.  Car dealerships may restrict how many can be in a showroom.  Conventions will be almost non-existent.  Basically - almost any business out there will need to change their approach.

[tradephoric]

Below are the daily totals of confirmed cases and deaths in San Francisco county.  The city has been locked down for 43 days now and they have been able to keep daily cases under control.  It appears the strategy is to bring the number of cases down to a very low level before reopening the city, and then contact tracing and isolating any new cases that pop up.  But how effective will they be in containing the virus once the city reopens?  I question how effective they will be in contact tracing and isolating the 16 new cases that popped up yesterday in the middle of the lockdown, much less all the new cases that will pop up once the city reopens.



NYC was hit hard in March but at least they have gained a level of immunity that may help prevent a big spike in cases moving forward.  A recent antibody study show that 21% of people in NYC have antibodies to the virus.  Compare that to a recent study out of California that found only 4% of people in LA county had antibodies to the virus.  If you look at the raw testing numbers, the percentage of positive tests in New York is much higher than it is in California (that's even with a higher percentage of the population being tested in NY).

[kalvado]

Below are the daily totals of confirmed cases and deaths in San Francisco county.  The city has been locked down for 43 days now and they have been able to keep daily cases under control.  It appears the strategy is to bring the number of cases down to a very low level before reopening the city, and then contact tracing and isolating any new cases that pop up.  But how effective will they be in containing the virus once the city reopens?  I question how effective they will be in contact tracing and isolating the 16 new cases that popped up yesterday in the middle of the lockdown, much less all the new cases that will pop up once the city reopens.

So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

Contact tracing is one part of the puzzle, not the only one. Continued distancing, masks, hygiene, precautionary isolation are other parts of the deal. None of them is 100% effective, but  taken in complex they may keep things under control.

[SEWIGuy]

The economy was not designed for large parts of it to be clobbered by a pandemic being forcibly shut down by government.  We're in for an extended period of economic pain even in the best case scenarios at this point.

FTFY.  The economy would have endured the pandemic.

LOL.  No it wouldn't have.  Are you really this naive?  Without the government shutdowns, the pandemic would have been worse.  More people would be sick and die, which will would have caused people to stop going out anyway.

If partially shutting down the economy for a few weeks is that catastrophic, maybe the problem is the economy wasn't all that great to begin with if it was built on such a fragile foundation.  Maybe if our safety net was better, we could endure this easier.

One thing this pandemic has shown, is that a lot of what makes up the American economy is a facade - like an old western movie set.  It looks good from one angle, but if you really take a look around, it's not very substantive.  ie, sure unemployment numbers are low, but so are wages for a lot of people, and therefore savings.  Furthermore, government incentivizes companies to slash their payrolls, then provides employees with all sorts of barriers to access solutions.  Oh, and they don't have adequate health care either, so if they get sick, it may cause them to have to declare bankruptcy.

[LM117]

A church in Chincoteague, VA is suing the governor.

https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/accomack-county/chincoteague-church-sues-gov-northam-for-covid-19-orders-preventing-gathering-for-worship/

[TheGrassGuy]

The WHO warned that there is no evidence of immunity right now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52425825

Well, the WHO took that back. They now say that there is most likely immunity, but we just don't know how long it lasts, etc. (https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/27/who-walks-back-no-evidence-claim-coronavirus-immun/)

[Roadgeekteen]

A church in Chincoteague, VA is suing the governor.

https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/accomack-county/chincoteague-church-sues-gov-northam-for-covid-19-orders-preventing-gathering-for-worship/

If they can still worship online their rights are not being violated.

[tradephoric]

So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

I'm proposing that California is delaying the inevitable spike in cases that will come once they do reopen.  There is a big difference between "flattening the curve" and "flat-lining the curve".  It seems like California has taken the "flat-lining" approach where they locked everything down early in an attempt to contain the virus.  The reality is California hasn't experienced their first big wave of infections but it might be coming.  Whenever they reopen, not only will the state be worried about "flatting the curve" but they may also be "behind the curve" as the population hasn't gained much immunity from the virus when compared to the east coast that has already been hit hard.   

Contact tracing is one part of the puzzle, not the only one. Continued distancing, masks, hygiene, precautionary isolation are other parts of the deal. None of them is 100% effective, but  taken in complex they may keep things under control.

That's true.  Maybe the combination of all of those things will be effective at preventing a spike in new cases in California upon reopening.  But you look at Singapore who have been doing all those things too for several weeks, and they were ultimately unable to contain the virus. 

[LM117]

In other VA litigation news, a judge has ruled that the SafeSide gun range in Lynchburg (which had filed a lawsuit against the governor) can reopen.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/27/846757355/virginia-gun-range-can-reopen-governor-overstepped-his-authority-judge-rules

[hotdogPi]

For some reason, I've felt this entire time as if the entire country is in the situation my area is in, even though I live in a semi-hotspot.

[kalvado]

So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

I'm proposing that California is delaying the inevitable spike in cases that will come once they do reopen.  There is a big difference between "flattening the curve" and "flat-lining the curve".  It seems like California has taken the "flat-lining" approach where they locked everything down early in an attempt to contain the virus.  The reality is California hasn't experienced their first big wave of infections but it might be coming.  Whenever they reopen, not only will the state be worried about "flatting the curve" but they may also be "behind the curve" as the population hasn't gained much immunity from the virus when compared to the east coast that has already been hit hard.   

Delaying till what? The only way to get immunity is to get exposed to the virus - and possibly get sick with 10% probability (and die with 1% probability) as a result. No vaccine yet.
The only management strategy I see is getting people sick at a manageable rate.

[LM117]

In addition to cats, dogs are getting hit with this shit, too. A pug in Chapel Hill, NC has tested positive and is the first known infected dog in the US.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/chapel-hill-pug-tests-positive-for-virus-that-causes-covid-19-first-known-case-in-a-dog-in-the-us/19074499/

[webny99]

For some reason, I've felt this entire time as if the entire country is in the situation my area is in, even though I live in a semi-hotspot.

I would say throughout the country as a whole, there are a lot more similarities than differences.

Not in terms of the healthcare system (which is obviously much more strained in the hotspots), but in terms of how our daily lives have been affected, I think it's very similar no matter what state or city you're in. The biggest place-to-place difference is probably that things are a little more like normal in rural areas, simply because of the lower population density.

[Plutonic Panda]

The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.

They do have a choice.

Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.

[bing101]

https://www.wral.com/fact-check-franklin-graham-says-sweden-avoided-infection-without-lockdown/19074082/

Now Sweden's COVID-19 response is examined after a statement by Franklin Graham was released.

[kalvado]

The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.

They do have a choice.

Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.

Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?

[Plutonic Panda]

The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.

They do have a choice.

Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.

Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?

We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.

[NWI_Irish96]

So what do you propose? Stay locked up for remainder of our lives?
Hint: money doesn't grow on trees. Food sometimes does, but even then it takes people to harvest, process and bring to your table.

I'm proposing that California is delaying the inevitable spike in cases that will come once they do reopen.  There is a big difference between "flattening the curve" and "flat-lining the curve".  It seems like California has taken the "flat-lining" approach where they locked everything down early in an attempt to contain the virus.  The reality is California hasn't experienced their first big wave of infections but it might be coming.  Whenever they reopen, not only will the state be worried about "flatting the curve" but they may also be "behind the curve" as the population hasn't gained much immunity from the virus when compared to the east coast that has already been hit hard.   

Delaying till what? The only way to get immunity is to get exposed to the virus - and possibly get sick with 10% probability (and die with 1% probability) as a result. No vaccine yet.
The only management strategy I see is getting people sick at a manageable rate.

Flattening the curve isn't just about spreading out the infections over time--it's about reducing the total number of infections.  Just accepting that everybody will eventually get infected and 1% of the population will die is not acceptable.  There are going to have to be some long term restrictions that remain until we get a vaccine:

Offices are going to have to continue to allow staff to work from home as much as possible.  Office spaces are going to have to be reconfigured to keep the work spaces of those who are in the office at least 6 feet apart and require masks.

Larger stores are going to have to limit the number of people inside, require masks for customers and employees, and manage traffic flow inside the stores.  Smaller stores are going to have to take orders at the door/outside the door and complete transactions without having customers actually enter the store. 

No crowds for large concerts or sporting events.  Places like parks, beaches, museums and zoos either remain closed or come up with plans to restrict the numbers of and spacing of people. 

If you're reading this and you're in a position to influence the working conditions of employees, I'm begging you on behalf of the spouse of a respiratory therapist to follow these guidelines even if your state/local government become less restrictive.  She's seen way too many people die this past 8 weeks.

If you're reading this and your employer is forcing you to return to work in conditions that you think aren't safe, contact an attorney (I am NOT an attorney) before putting your health and life at risk.

[Roadgeekteen]

The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.

They do have a choice.

Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.

Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?

We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.

We have to open up sometimes, just opening it up to early could be bad.

[02 Park Ave]

The way the word "testing" is being bandied about by so many various officials one would think that it is a synonym for "curing".

[kalvado]

The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.

They do have a choice.

Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.

Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?

We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.

not rush to open - CAREFULLY  open to avoid flare out. Restraunts and churches may go to hell, milestone 1: survive winter 2021.

[SEWIGuy]

The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.

They do have a choice.

Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.

Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?

We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.

not rush to open - CAREFULLY  open to avoid flare out.

Right.  And I think a lot of people aren't going to be going to restaurants for awhile regardless.

[Roadgeekteen]

The notion is to acknowledge that some people don't want to get sick but don't have the choice to stay inside.

They do have a choice.

Individually maybe, collectively we need a certain amount of essential services to keep society from collapse. If all warehouse, delivery and retail workers choose to stay at home, most urban population would be starving within days or months (depending on fridge size). If all farmers choose to stay at home - we will not survive next winter. If all healthcare and funeral workers choose to stay at home, you will be sickened by decomposing body of your neighbor.

Let us remember that 7 million people as direct result from famine due to The Great Depression. Shooting squirrels for food and dandelion soup were real things. Those deaths aren't factoring in how many others died from a spike in crime.

Great. So you recognize that collectively we don't have a choice and have to support those who of us has to work to keep the world spinning?

We do have a choice. Open the economy back up or face certain doom. I don't know what about my position is unclear. If you want to stay at home do so. But don't tell others to.

not rush to open - CAREFULLY  open to avoid flare out.

Right.  And I think a lot of people aren't going to be going to restaurants for awhile regardless.

At least restaurants can still do take out. Places like movie theaters might be screwed.

[J N Winkler]

That's true.  Maybe the combination of all of those things will be effective at preventing a spike in new cases in California upon reopening.  But you look at Singapore who have been doing all those things too for several weeks, and they were ultimately unable to contain the virus.

Singapore was doing quite well until the virus got into migrant worker dormitories where the residents could not socially distance.  This is not unlike the situation we face with jails, prisons, and nursing homes.

My concern about the portfolio approach of testing and contact tracing is not that it doesn't work (it does, and has in South Korea), but rather has to do with aspects of how the US response has fallen short.

*  We are still rationing tests even though a more or less universal lockdown keeps demand for them in check.

*  We don't have quick turnaround on results except for a minority of tests that is being reserved for workers in critically important industries (such as meatpacking).  If you are waiting three days for results, that is that much more time for a cluster to grow.

*  With the exception of a few jurisdictions such as Massachusetts that have been ramping up, we are nowhere close to having the contact-tracers we need.

*  Unlike South Korea, we don't have a contact-tracing app in wide use.

*  Even after about a month to mitigate spread, we are dealing with a very high load of active cases per capita.