Coronavirus pandemic

[Roadgeekteen]

Also, a lot of websites say Kentucky never really had a stay-at-home order, since it was phrased as more of a less threatening "healthy at home" statement. A lot of states are moving towards that, maybe even Ohio.

But trust me, it was a stay-at-home order. It was a really rough time.

I'm not sure if anyone was arrested over it. A lot of people say it was really just a very, very strong suggestion, not an order. But trust me, it was an order. I always thought it was mandatory. Kentucky did tell churches specifically not to have Easter services.

I mean you could still go outside. But everything was closed.

[bandit957]

I mean you could still go outside. But everything was closed.

Most businesses are closed, but I was under the impression that it was an order not to travel more than a very short distance from home, and not even visit friends or family. I got the feeling that all activities were to be limited to just members of one's own household (or alone, if one lives alone). I thought the order was to stay away from all other people unless it was EXTREMELY necessary.

[kalvado]

My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

I know I became a bit more relaxed. Maybe this is about a better understanding of what is going on... We did some stock up before it became popular (e.g. I bought 5 lb bag of rice - half empty by now), and we didn't go anywhere for about two weeks.
I was in Home Depot today - the third time in 10 days, I believe (and not for vital repairs - those are long term home maintenance projects). Mask, being scared of people, paranoic handwashing and sanitizing - but definitely not panicky lockdown of first few days. 

[bandit957]

I'm still terrified to enter any building except my apartment.

[kphoger]

Also, a lot of websites say Kentucky never really had a stay-at-home order, since it was phrased as more of a less threatening "healthy at home" statement. A lot of states are moving towards that, maybe even Ohio.

But trust me, it was a stay-at-home order. It was a really rough time.

I'm not sure if anyone was arrested over it. A lot of people say it was really just a very, very strong suggestion, not an order. But trust me, it was an order. I always thought it was mandatory. Kentucky did tell churches specifically not to have Easter services.

Kentucky's order was only to "encourage ... social distancing", yet the governor also officially requested that all the mayors monitor people gathering in groups and "stop them if people are not practicing social distancing".  Ummmm..... that sounds like more than just encouragement to me.

I see a bunch of references to Kentucky having issued an order that no more than ten people can gather.  However, interestingly, the only pertinent executive order I can find on the topic doesn't specify the number ten anywhere in it–but rather prohibiting "any event or convening that brings together groups of
individuals".  Pretty vague.

[Duke87]

My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

It's difficult to say. Locally, today, I observed numerous people hanging out on closed beaches and recreating in closed parks. I don't know if some people have actually stopped caring, but I do know that this is the first time I have observed what is clearly deliberate noncompliance with the rules.

That said, I don't think it is a coincidence that today is the first day this year that the temperature climbed into the 70s here. So this is going to continue and authorities are going to have to either reopen the parks, make the very unpopular move of sending the police out to disperse people, or - perhaps the most likely path - leave the signs and barriers saying things are closed up to try to intimidate people, but don't take any action against those who disregard them.

Of course, closing parks was one of the dumbest moves a lot of places made to begin with - any respiratory infection doesn't spread nearly as effectively outdoors due to air movement, and if it's sunny you have the extra benefit of UV radiation neutralizing virus particles. It's perfectly fine for people to be recreating outdoors so long as they understand they need to not pile on top of each other.

Also, a lot of websites say Kentucky never really had a stay-at-home order, since it was phrased as more of a less threatening "healthy at home" statement. A lot of states are moving towards that, maybe even Ohio.

Yeah, the media kind of latched onto the term "stay-at-home order" to broadly describe comprehensive shutdown actions, when in fact this is a detail that varies more than the reporting implies.

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this. But many more states have not, and have merely banned the operation of non-essential businesses. CT/NY/NJ aren't stopping anyone from going out for a Sunday drive if they feel like. In CT you are also permitted to go boating so long as you adhere to the rules saying no more than 5 people gathered, and you're even nominally permitted to go see your friends/family so long as they also live in CT and you keep the number of people present to 5 or less.

[NWI_Irish96]

My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

It's difficult to say. Locally, today, I observed numerous people hanging out on closed beaches and recreating in closed parks. I don't know if some people have actually stopped caring, but I do know that this is the first time I have observed what is clearly deliberate noncompliance with the rules.

That said, I don't think it is a coincidence that today is the first day this year that the temperature climbed into the 70s here. So this is going to continue and authorities are going to have to either reopen the parks, make the very unpopular move of sending the police out to disperse people, or - perhaps the most likely path - leave the signs and barriers saying things are closed up to try to intimidate people, but don't take any action against those who disregard them.

Of course, closing parks was one of the dumbest moves a lot of places made to begin with - any respiratory infection doesn't spread nearly as effectively outdoors due to air movement, and if it's sunny you have the extra benefit of UV radiation neutralizing virus particles. It's perfectly fine for people to be recreating outdoors so long as they understand they need to not pile on top of each other.

In theory, it should be fine to open parks and beaches because of the reasons you've described above.  In practice, people are incredibly selfish and are going to do whatever they want and force you to be the one to stay out of their way.

[bandit957]

I see a bunch of references to Kentucky having issued an order that no more than ten people can gather.  However, interestingly, the only pertinent executive order I can find on the topic doesn't specify the number ten anywhere in it–but rather prohibiting "any event or convening that brings together groups of
individuals".  Pretty vague.

I had thought groups of 2 or more were prohibited.

[kphoger]

I'm still terrified to enter any building except my apartment.

0.09% of Campbell County has tested positive for the virus.  That's one out of 1100 people.  Roughly the same figure as rapes per capita in Cincinnati.  So look at it this way:  if you've never been raped in Cincy, then you probably won't get the virus in Campbell County.

[bandit957]

0.09% of Campbell County has tested positive for the virus.  That's one out of 1100 people.

I'm sure it's much more than that. It has to be. There just hasn't been a lot of testing or contact tracing.

[tradephoric]

Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.

[Max Rockatansky]

My (very limited) impression is that people who cared before still care about the orders now, and people who don't care about them now didn't care before.

It's difficult to say. Locally, today, I observed numerous people hanging out on closed beaches and recreating in closed parks. I don't know if some people have actually stopped caring, but I do know that this is the first time I have observed what is clearly deliberate noncompliance with the rules.

That said, I don't think it is a coincidence that today is the first day this year that the temperature climbed into the 70s here. So this is going to continue and authorities are going to have to either reopen the parks, make the very unpopular move of sending the police out to disperse people, or - perhaps the most likely path - leave the signs and barriers saying things are closed up to try to intimidate people, but don't take any action against those who disregard them.

Of course, closing parks was one of the dumbest moves a lot of places made to begin with - any respiratory infection doesn't spread nearly as effectively outdoors due to air movement, and if it's sunny you have the extra benefit of UV radiation neutralizing virus particles. It's perfectly fine for people to be recreating outdoors so long as they understand they need to not pile on top of each other.

In theory, it should be fine to open parks and beaches because of the reasons you've described above.  In practice, people are incredibly selfish and are going to do whatever they want and force you to be the one to stay out of their way.

There are different ways of doing things like having a limit on the number of people on popular trails in National Parks or even State Parks.  If a particular trail can't be managed close down the main trail head and require a detour via some longer trails.  People having to walk longer than they normally would tends to get rid of the problem crowds who are just out to overcrowd a short trail or overlook.  Either way, on about 90% of trails out in California you wouldn't run into an issue encountering other people.  Its that 10% of trails that people see on Instagram that are the problem.

[Max Rockatansky]

Sutter County and Yuba County are set to reopen in California.  I would expect a lot more Northern California counties to do the same this week if the Governor's Office keeps holding out on even partially reopening:

https://news.yahoo.com/two-more-california-counties-defy-100023035.html

[ozarkman417]

Missouri is now starting to reopen, one of multiple phases is in effect starting today. Most, if not all businesses can re-open as long as social distancing guidelines are met.  Local laws override this, however.

[jemacedo9]

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.

[jeffandnicole]

Some states (Pennsylvania comes to mind) have explicitly banned people from traveling on public roads for any non-essential reason, and have even had cops ticketing people for violating this.

PA did not do this at all.

This isn't the first time I read some most likely false reporting of people being stopped.  I've read it for other states also, which tends to stem from the "a friend of a friend told me" evidence, or may have been a single town that went a little overboard, but suddenly becomes "the entire state is stopping everyone".

[tdindy88]

In Indiana the only people being stopped by the cops are those already breaking other laws like speeding or DUI (or both.) If they are seen "violating" the stay-at-home order they'll throw that charge on top of the others. I suspect other states are doing something similar. The police aren't interested in every single person driving out there, just those actively causing trouble. In other words, just like all the other times.

[TheGrassGuy]

Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.

So by that metric, the U.S. has almost 10,000,000 cases. OK...

[hotdogPi]

Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.

So by that metric, the U.S. has almost 10,000,000 cases. OK...

3% isn't that unreasonable of a guess.

[bandit957]

In Indiana the only people being stopped by the cops are those already breaking other laws like speeding or DUI (or both.) If they are seen "violating" the stay-at-home order they'll throw that charge on top of the others. I suspect other states are doing something similar. The police aren't interested in every single person driving out there, just those actively causing trouble. In other words, just like all the other times.

I don't think any motorists are being stopped in the U.S. anymore unless they're breaking some other law or if there's some other extenuating circumstances. A month ago, I'm sure they were. But not now.

I think this is becoming true of other events too. Over the weekend, there was a huge mass gathering in Kentucky. This didn't just violate the stay-at-home order but also an earlier order against very large gatherings such as parades and festivals. When some reporter asked the governor if they'd be punished for it, all he said was, "We'll see." He didn't really commit to punishing them. This seems to be true in other states too.

I don't think the local Memorial Day parade was even officially canceled until just a few days ago. I think they were going to go ahead with it, before they finally decided it would be better to just postpone it.

[bandit957]

3% isn't that unreasonable of a guess.

I'm surprised it's not a lot higher.

[tradephoric]

Here's a formula to ballpark the number of people that have been infected in a given region (assuming a relatively high mortality rate of 0.7% based on antibody studies):

Estimated cases = confirmed deaths / 0.007

With 9 confirmed deaths in Campbell County it's estimated 1,285 people have been infected (which is roughly 14X higher than the 92 confirmed cases cited by John Hopkins).  With a population of 93,584 that's about 2% of the counties population.

So by that metric, the U.S. has almost 10,000,000 cases. OK...

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the USA has had over 10 million cases (that's only 10x higher than the official numbers and until recently they were only testing the most severe cases).  There are potentially millions of asymptomatic cases in this country.  If you assume the mortality rate of this virus is 0.3% (which is the average mortality rate based on worldwide antibody testing) then the number of US cases would surpass 20 million cases (or roughly 6% of the US population has already been exposed to the virus).

[tradephoric]

This coronavirus model keeps being wrong. Why are we still listening to it?
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic

The IHME projections have been all over the place.  The projections have ranged from a high of 93,531 deaths on their April 2nd release to a low of 60,308 deaths on their April 17th release (the grey lines are the upper and lower ranges).  Overall their projections have been trending downwards.  Their latest estimate of 72,433 deaths will likely be surpassed over the coming days. 



Per the VOX article: 'the IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak – an assumption that has not been borne out.'

[1995hoo]

In Indiana the only people being stopped by the cops are those already breaking other laws like speeding or DUI (or both.) If they are seen "violating" the stay-at-home order they'll throw that charge on top of the others. I suspect other states are doing something similar. The police aren't interested in every single person driving out there, just those actively causing trouble. In other words, just like all the other times.

The main ticket-related reports I've been seeing around here are speeding tickets for extreme speeds. This weekend the Virginia State Police tweeted an image of a summons they issued to someone clocked at 132 mph on I-95 in Fairfax County (speed limit is either 55 or 65, depending on whether he was in the HO/T lanes–they didn't say). The guy's court date isn't until August.

[SEWIGuy]

Have states that opened up early experienced a spike in cases?

Nope.

Interesting

This website shows which states are reducing the rate of contagion the fastest:
https://rt.live
Alaska was the first state to reopen. It's doing the best at reducing its r0.
Montana was the second state to reopen. It's doing second best.

Or maybe it's just because barely anyone lives in these states.

More specifically, they have no large cities and a very low population density.

That's kinda what I said just worded better

Not only that, but it also depends on how many they are testing. 

We will know in about 10 days.