Coronavirus pandemic

[NWI_Irish96]

This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government.

They just don't want the government telling you what to do. 

And our most venerated founding fathers would be proud.  Distrust of the government lay at the heart of our nation's foundation.

Yes, but distrust of science lays at the heart of conservative talk radio's foundation.  If you ignored everything the government said but paid attention to what scientists said, you'd be following 90% or more of what the government is asking you to do.

[kalvado]

This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government.

They just don't want the government telling you what to do. 

And our most venerated founding fathers would be proud.  Distrust of the government lay at the heart of our nation's foundation.

Yes, but distrust of science lays at the heart of conservative talk radio's foundation.  If you ignored everything the government said but paid attention to what scientists said, you'd be following 90% or more of what the government is asking you to do.

Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.

[bandit957]

Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.

I have noticed that a lot of scientific and economic "experts" have been wrong a lot over the years. That's how we end up with ruined economies and dangerous prescription drugs.

[NWI_Irish96]

Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.

I have noticed that a lot of scientific and economic "experts" have been wrong a lot over the years. That's how we end up with ruined economies and dangerous prescription drugs.

First of all, medical science and economics are entirely different fields.  Secondly, "a lot" is a vague term, but as our knowledge base advances, it's inevitable that a certain number of things we thought at the time were correct turned out to be wrong.  Deciding to selectively or wholly mistrust what medical science is telling us because a small percentage of it is inevitably going to turn out to be wrong is completely irrational.

[kphoger]

Now we are being told that once churches reopen, they should not allow congregational singing. 

This is very much on my mind right now.  Just yesterday, our pastor announced a tentative date for re-opening and, in that e-mail, he stated:

"Our thought, and a common theme for churches around the country, is that we do not want to miss the opportunity to reopen with great impact.  We want to have as many people, and as much of a large celebratory nature as we possibly can."

I'm worried by that statement, especially the "common theme for churches around the country" part.  I expressed my concern in reply, but the few people who have been imprudent enough to reply-all to a mass e-mail (pet peeve!) so far don't seem to share my same concern.  While many businesses may be hesitant to re-open once restrictions are lifted, I fear that there are going to be a lot of individual citizens going hog-wild and immediately throwing all caution to the wind.  I think that may set us up for a renewed flare-up and start the process all over again.

Would you feel safe resuming "normal" life or something close to it, if you knew that 10% of the population had this virus but didn't know it?  What if it's 25%?  Or 50%? 

I don't know what number would make me stop feeling safe returning to normal life or something close to it.  But it's certainly larger than 0.5%.

But we don't have widespread testing, which is exactly why we can't single out people who have tested positive.

You say that like I don't know it.

If you ignored everything the government said but paid attention to what scientists said, you'd be following 90% or more of what the government is asking you to do.

Who said I'm not paying attention to what scientists say?  It's possible to for two people to weigh the facts and settle on two different courses of action, you know.

Frankly speaking, a lot of popular science is much closer to religion than to actual science. So I would treat (dis)trust in popular science along the lines of First amendment more than anything else.

I have noticed that a lot of scientific and economic "experts" have been wrong a lot over the years. That's how we end up with ruined economies and dangerous prescription drugs.

Two points:

(1)  Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.  Being wrong is the nature of science.  Hypotheses and theories are formed, but then they are adjusted as new facts come to light.  "Being right" in the beginning is more the exception than the rule, by the very nature of how science works.  That doesn't make scientists stupid or crackpots.  It just means that, despite their being fallible and always needing more information, they are still humble and willing enough to give it their best shot and present the public with as accurate a picture as possible with the data at hand.

(2)  Don't save the bathwater.  The media are very eager to jump on any new development, whether it's borne the weight of testing and peer review or not.  And, especially right now, prediction models are all the rage.  Prediction models are perhaps one of the weakest parts of science.  It's predicting the future, the world is a rather complicated place, and–especially in the beginning of something–one shouldn't put a whole lot of confidence in the assumptions made while crafting the models.  This is why the models have been all over the place.  One modeler's worst case scenario will be wildly different than another's, because they make different assumptions in the beginning.  Always keep in mind that, just because a CNN article comes across your suggestion list on your cell phone, that doesn't mean it's the latest consensus of the scientific community.



Meanwhile, I'm half-expecting to be back in the office starting sometime next week.  My closest co-worker was already called in this week.  They were going to have us all at home still this week, then gradually bring people back next week, but there was a big stack of paperwork for my co-worker to get to, so she was called in early.  She's being very cautious around the office, though, because she's on medication that depresses her immune system, plus she has very frequent interactions with her elderly grandmother.  I expect that, over the next two or three weeks, we'll all be settling back into our normal work routines.

[J N Winkler]

Thing is, understanding the scale of the problem takes time and - sigh - experience. While it is pretty clear in hindsight that the problem was pretty bad, most people (me included) thought up to some point, (in my case  till mid- to late February), that the problem would be contained, authorities are on top of things, and we will have another SARS-like confinement scenario.

My belief was somewhat shaken mid-February, when I realized the scope of US testing is heavily restricted, but not totally ruined till very late February or early March. And I know I was pretty much ahead of the curve in realizing the scale of it. We were joking about the virus during Saratoga meet on 2/27, but none of us was really serious. Nobody would accept lockdown at that point.

UPD: Saratoga meet was actually March 6th.

In my case, the timeline was pretty similar.  My thinking in early February was that China would be even more effective at containing it than it was with SARS because its HDI was higher, translating into more resources to throw at the problem.  I was actually preoccupied with the possibility of long-term sequelae like bone tissue necrosis (something that is still a concern and is part of the reason I argue we should be very wary of buying into a herd immunity strategy), but I was not mentally prepared to give up on containment.

The uh-oh moment came for me in early March when I read about a documented example of asymptomatic spread in Italy that is now believed to be part of the reason cases really took off in Lombardy.  For all of the criticism that has been heaped on the CDC's complacency and its insistence that a native-to-the-US test be used, it has to be remembered that other countries were willing to use the tests that were available (including the WHO test), yet fell into the same trap of thinking, "No problem, we can still contain this" while they were already knee-deep in silent cases.

I also woke up to the problem of test reliability comparatively late.  We still don't have a test that offers better than a 10% false negative rate, do we?

Other countries that responded quicker and flattened their curves quicker have had to shut back down after opening things back up because cases and deaths spiked again, because so many people had it and were asymptomatic and started coming in contact with a bunch of other people again.

At this stage I am pretty cynical and operating under the assumption that governors are unwinding stay-at-home orders because they realize that the public will not voluntarily comply with lockdown rules unless they have visuals of people dying in overcrowded ICUs right in front of their noses.  I fully expect a large share (not the entirety) of states that have unwound restrictions to crash back into lockdown.

One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.

I suspect that things didn't quite change...

I don't know about Tyson specifically or the chicken industry in general, but the beef producers in western Kansas have largely switched to Somali refugees (who are already US citizens) to avoid having production shut down by ICE raids.  Kansas is also an open-shop state, and one of the tactics meatpackers use to discourage workers from organizing (and thus advocating for better conditions as well as higher pay) is to prohibit them from being rehired at the same plant if they quit voluntarily.

[bandit957]

I think U.S. cases are declining rapidly now just based on a formula that we can use:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of new cases on a given day. 'T' is the percentage of tests administered that day that come back positive.

I don't know what formula any state or government agency uses, but that's the best I can come up with.

If you go by that, we only have about one-fourth the number of new cases we had a month ago.

[Max Rockatansky]

This past week I've had several requests from numerous friends asking they can use our home gym (Post Driveway cookout on National BBQ Day).  I'm cool with letting people grab a work out but they seemed kind of disappointed that I don't have a ton of benches or really high weight sets.  I'm essentially on a parts hunt every time I've gone out to some general store.  If anything this whole virus thing renewed my interest  in gathering strength training equipment. 

I'm planning on hitting my bike starting this Friday for 25 miles to go see the historic rail depot in Sanger.  I might start looking at 25-40 mile rides (this is a mountain bike and not a street bike) as a weekly challenge to mix up some of the cardio exercise I've been doing and get more time on the road. 

[Max Rockatansky]

City of Clovis voted to reopen:

https://www.clovisroundup.com/city-council-votes-5-0-to-reopen-city-will-not-enforce-shelter-in-place-order/

Apparently Clovis is taking a hands off approach to the Governor's order akin to Modoc County.  The City of Fresno is allowing most retail and certain other businesses to reopen this week but has a standing order to May 31st.  The City Council of Clovis had some interesting things to say about one-size fits all orders not working for smaller communities...kind of a common snarky shot around these parts.

Counties in eastern NC are taking a similar view.

http://goldsborodailynews.com/blog/2020/05/06/commissioners-ask-for-regional-approach-to-reopening-state/

I suspect most states are facing similar problems right now.  Interestingly things like this aren't drawing a ton of media attention outside of local areas.  The Governor put out some sort of half hearted statement last night about putting people at risk but it appears to have no teeth to it.  Supposedly the Phase 2 announcement for California tomorrow is going to allow some local leeway on deciding repealing restrictions. 

[kalvado]

My thinking in early February was that China would be even more effective at containing it than it was with SARS because its HDI was higher, translating into more resources to throw at the problem.  I was actually preoccupied with the possibility of long-term sequelae like bone tissue necrosis (something that is still a concern and is part of the reason I argue we should be very wary of buying into a herd immunity strategy), but I was not mentally prepared to give up on containment.

Frankly speaking, China did beautifully on containment. There was never an assumprion that there would be no leak out of the country. There were what, 50 cases of SARS in US and 200 in Montreal alone?
Europe was somewhat more vulnerable geografically, but US definitely had a rock solid chance of staying out of trouble. You might remember that single document I blame for the failure...

[kphoger]

I think U.S. cases are declining rapidly now just based on a formula that we can use:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of new cases on a given day. 'T' is the percentage of tests administered that day that come back positive.

I don't know what formula any state or government agency uses, but that's the best I can come up with.

If you go by that, we only have about one-fourth the number of new cases we had a month ago.

U.S. cases are declining, but the decline is definitely not rapid.

To understand the graph below, you need to know a few things about how it's set up:

(1) The scale is logarithmic, meaning each tick mark is ten times larger than the tick mark before.  This basically turns the ubiquitous exponential curve into a straight line, so it's easier to comprehend.

(2) The x-axis is not time, but rather total number of confirmed cases.  This is more useful, because the pertinent information is what percentage of total cases are new cases.

(3)  Falling below the straight line indicates a decline in new cases as a portion of the total cases so far (that is, it indicates a "flattening of the curve", as they say).  Falling clear down to the baseline would indicate the virus has been kicked in the butt.

[kalvado]

I think U.S. cases are declining rapidly now just based on a formula that we can use:

N*(T/5)

'N' is the number of new cases on a given day. 'T' is the percentage of tests administered that day that come back positive.

I don't know what formula any state or government agency uses, but that's the best I can come up with.

If you go by that, we only have about one-fourth the number of new cases we had a month ago.

U.S. cases are declining, but the decline is definitely not rapid.

To understand the graph below, you need to know a few things about how it's set up:

(1) The scale is logarithmic, meaning each tick mark is ten times larger than the tick mark before.  This basically turns the ubiquitous exponential curve into a straight line, so it's easier to comprehend.

(2) The x-axis is not time, but rather total number of confirmed cases.  This is more useful, because the pertinent information is what percentage of total cases are new cases.

(3)  Falling below the straight line indicates a decline in new cases as a portion of the total cases so far (that is, it indicates a "flattening of the curve", as they say).  Falling clear down to the baseline would indicate the virus has been kicked in the butt.

Can you post a link to that analysis as well? I am data hungry, and I love playing with such toys...

[hbelkins]

2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.

One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...

Meanwhile, we still had Kentucky counties with double-digit unemployment rates even before all this started. There are plenty of American citizens who are available to work. I still don't understand the need to import workers, especially illegal aliens, when there are citizens who'd love to have a job.

[kphoger]

Can you post a link to that analysis as well? I am data hungry, and I love playing with such toys...

Oh, if you didn't already know about this site, then you're going to love it.  You can break it down by country, or even by sub-national unit for four countries.  You can also switch between confirmed cases or reported deaths, and between logarithmic or linear scale.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

[Alps]

Let's try to steer back away from politics... this is not a roads-related post so the tolerance for politics is lower

[GaryV]

Now we are being told that once churches reopen, they should not allow congregational singing. 

This is very much on my mind right now.  Just yesterday, our pastor announced a tentative date for re-opening and, in that e-mail, he stated:

"Our thought, and a common theme for churches around the country, is that we do not want to miss the opportunity to reopen with great impact.  We want to have as many people, and as much of a large celebratory nature as we possibly can."

That's not what I'm hearing from our church (United Methodist).  Both our Michigan Bishop and the Wisconsin Bishop have similar reopening plans.

You start slowly - first only 10 people.  This would be your pastor, worship leaders, key musicians, probably a tech person, etc.  This mean you go from streaming mostly recorded services to streaming live services (for those churches that have an online presence).

Then 50 people, then 100.  This is where it gets sticky - how do you determine which group of 50 or 100 members can come any given Sunday?

At the beginning of this, when it became apparent that we wouldn't be open by Easter, the bishop said that once we reopen he would "declare" it to be Easter for celebration.  It looks like that position is being modified for the slower opening approach.  We may end up celebrating Easter just before Christmas, if at all.

[kalvado]

2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.

One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...

Meanwhile, we still had Kentucky counties with double-digit unemployment rates even before all this started. There are plenty of American citizens who are available to work. I still don't understand the need to import workers, especially illegal aliens, when there are citizens who'd love to have a job.

Because US citizens would need at least a minimum wage, workers comp, very likely some benefits etc. You can cut a lot of corners breaking the law just a touch.
I mean, Abe Lincoln was a great guy - but that abolition thingie  was a bit rushed, so lots of workarounds have to be used..

[Max Rockatansky]

2. The same issues that have plagued Iowa and SD meat plants have happened in southern Minnesota as well.
The state expected case numbers o go up.

One thing I heard many moons ago that after some vigorous DHS raid on undocumented immigrants, Tyson approached the government with the message that sure, DHS is within their rights - but once chicken price doubles, the government would have to deal with that as well.
I suspect that things didn't quite change...

Meanwhile, we still had Kentucky counties with double-digit unemployment rates even before all this started. There are plenty of American citizens who are available to work. I still don't understand the need to import workers, especially illegal aliens, when there are citizens who'd love to have a job.

The problem is that most Americans who have an established footprint in the work force don't want to work at Meat Processing facilities, Harvesting Facilities, farms, or even ranches for what those jobs pay.  I suspect that even the current pandemic has done little to change that mindset towards pay in those industries.  If the wages of the work force increased the costs just get pushed down the roads to consumers who will complain. 

Interestingly given that there is a such a large agricultural foot print here in Central California it seems to be the primary reason this part of the State has been so active.  Pretty all those ranches and farms were deemed essential from the get-go. Much of the yields are being wasted right now because there isn't enough restaurant demand which led to an over supply.  I've found it easier through much of the pandemic just to order groceries from places like Denny's over going to the grocery store.  Driving around the sticks looking for fruit and vegetable stands has been also practical. 

[webny99]

This crisis has, if nothing else, exposed a fundamental lack of trust by Americans in government.

They just don't want the government telling you what to do. 

And our most venerated founding fathers would be proud.  Distrust of the government lay at the heart of our nation's foundation.

Distrust, yes, in a monarchy with very limited freedoms. So we created a democracy, which was supposed to, above all things, remove that distrust. That seems to no longer be working. But I will say, having no government at all would be exponentially scarier than a government that has implemented a few policies that we don't like. Having a communist government would also be exponentially scarier.
Our government is much closer to the middle of that spectrum than it is to either end, and I think that's important context to remember during the current situation.

[SEWIGuy]

How are the emergency coronavirus restrictions any different than temporarily setting the fire marshal limit to 10 in every building?

Or, for another common approach, limiting occupancy to X% of the fire marshal's occupancy limit, to allow more space per customer.

A few key differences:

(1)  In those situations, the government wouldn't be telling you (or anyone else) that you can't go in the building.  You would be perfectly free to go there, just not when there are more than a certain number of other people there.  And, once inside, you'd be perfectly free to associate with the other people there.  In the situation we have now, there are jurisdictions telling every citizen they're flat-out not allowed to go somewhere.

(2)  Fire marshal codes exist because, if more people than that limit are in the property at once, then it has been determined to cause imminent danger to the others in case of a fire–by virtue of the very number of people on the premises.  That's not the same thing as saying that you are by your very existence an imminent danger to another person without even having been determined to be carrying the virus.

You're really just splitting hairs here.  The fact is that the government at times has a compelling interest to restrict assembly in a reasonable manner.  The questions then are "is the interest compelling?" And "is the restriction reasonable?"

Sorry, I guess we'll just have to disagree that it's splitting hairs to distinguish...

(1)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when you are a criminal or have tested positive for a communicable disease;

(2)  Being told by the government where you can go and what you can do when they have nothing against you.

Who says they need to have something against you?  You are creating a standard that doesn't exist.

[Max Rockatansky]

Meanwhile in Cleveland enterprising individuals have decided to use up their free time to rename the street grid:

https://m.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2020/05/05/genital-street-signs-overtake-tremont

[kphoger]

That's not what I'm hearing from our church (United Methodist).  Both our Michigan Bishop and the Wisconsin Bishop have similar reopening plans.

You start slowly - first only 10 people.  This would be your pastor, worship leaders, key musicians, probably a tech person, etc.  This mean you go from streaming mostly recorded services to streaming live services (for those churches that have an online presence).

Then 50 people, then 100.  This is where it gets sticky - how do you determine which group of 50 or 100 members can come any given Sunday?

It's for that reason that our church leadership has decided on a later re-opening date rather than an earlier one.  Here in Kansas, the restrictions will relax to be no more than 90 in attendance.  Our church just doesn't see how to re-open for worship and still keep under that threshold, so we'll simply wait until the limitation of 90 also elapses.  I suppose one solution would be to go to two services instead of one service, but–at least for our congregation–that would require a HECK of a lot of re-organization of staff, and we likely wouldn't even have enough people willing and able to fill the spots.

Let's try to steer back away from politics... this is not a roads-related post so the tolerance for politics is lower

Yes, sir.

Pretty all those ranches and farms were deemed essential from the get-go. Much of the yields are being wasted right now because there isn't enough restaurant demand which led to an over supply.

This is a tragic irony, isn't it?  It's easy to say, But people still eat the same amount of food, and wonder how there can be such a waste of agricultural produce.  But that ignores the fact that people have switched from eating out (commercial supply chain) to eating at home (residential supply chain).

I remember, when Florida dairymen were first grieving at having to dump huge amounts of milk, some people started asking why they couldn't simply donate that milk to food banks etc.  In one article I read back then, it was pointed out that–even if it were legal to do so–one can't exactly back up a tanker truck to a food bank and unload it.  It just doesn't work that way.

[kphoger]

Meanwhile in Cleveland enterprising individuals have decided to use up their free time to rename the street grid:

https://m.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2020/05/05/genital-street-signs-overtake-tremont

  Couldn't even spell "wiener" correctly, could they?

[Tonytone]

Of course, I have an allergy to heavy-handed government overreach, so that's my medical condition that will preclude my wearing a mask in public.

If that's the excuse you give to the cops when you're driving 80 mph in a 25 mph residential zone while snorting crack cocaine off a naked hooker in a convertible, then maybe that's reasonable.  But if you're just have opinions about it, then that's not an illness, and it takes away from those that do have true issues.

If your employer has said that you can work from home, have you protested saying that the government is overreaching and you demand to go into the office every day?

+1 & funny


iPhone

[Max Rockatansky]

Meanwhile in Cleveland enterprising individuals have decided to use up their free time to rename the street grid:

https://m.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2020/05/05/genital-street-signs-overtake-tremont

  Couldn't even spell "wiener" correctly, could they?

Well, it is Cleveland after all...

Yes, people really don't get how much goes into food disposal.  I usually have to stop people at least a dozen times a year from donating or trying to sell expired goods.  The State Standards are pretty high on when stuff needs to go but they are even more strict on the Federal side. 

To that end, I think my wife and I hit on the over saturation of people going to the grocery store early.  We've been getting some kick ass discounts from restaurants trying to get rid of bulk amounts of food.  We just had tri-tip steak for about a solid week when I bought seven pounds from a restaurant we frequent for $18 dollars.  They have a similar chicken deal coming up this week and I'll definitely be partaking.  Either way it shouldn't be a shock that the commercial side is wasting product while the grocery side can't keep up with the almost 180 degree change in dining habits nation wide.  That said, I would argue going to a place to pick up dinner or buy bulk from a restaurant is probably "safer"  than piling into a place like Costco which is now limiting purchase quantities of meat.