Coronavirus pandemic

[kalvado]

I can't help but wonder if the fact that the coronavirus vaccine candidates are RNA vaccines, a completely unproven way to make vaccines that has never been tried before.

Not all of them...

[Duke87]

So...  I was reading about the Asian Flu (H2N2) and Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemics, from 1657-8 and 1968-9 respectively.
{...}
In both cases, a vaccine became available within one year of the start of the pandemic.  In the case of H3N2, it was available just four months in.  My, how times have bureaucratic red tape has changed since then.

Not sure what you mean. Flu vaccine is a known technology; much less so for a completely differnt virus. Still, 1 year is a possible (pretty optimistic) timeframe for the vaccine.

What I mean is that it takes a LOT longer than four months to get a vaccine through the approval process nowadays.  A year and a half is the fast-track best-case scenario.

There's a false equivalence here. Influenza vaccines have existed since 1945. When a new strain emerges, it is a comparatively simple process to take the existing, known method of vaccinating against influenza and adapt it to the new strain. This is why in 1957 and 1968 a vaccine was available in a matter of months, and you may note that this was also the case in 2009 with swine flu.

But covid-19 is different. The reason we can't come up with something that fast for it isn't because of bureaucracy. It's because there are no existing coronavirus vaccines that we can just take and adapt to this new strain - we have to create one mostly from scratch. That takes longer.

Fortunately, some of the early development work was started in 2002 for SARS (and subsequently abandoned once SARS was successfully contained, thus rendering the vaccine unnecessary), so we're not starting completely from scratch. If not for SARS we'd be saying 2 years instead of 18 months.

[Duke87]

So here's some fun science:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340418430_Airborne_transmission_of_COVID-19_epidemiologic_evidence_from_two_outbreak_investigations

A case study from China involving a group of people who all rode a charter bus together. One of them was infected, but asymptomatic, at the time of the bus ride. Of the 66 other people on the bus, 23 of them got infected, but - here's the money fact: the 23 people who got infected were scattered all over the bus. There was absolutely NO correlation with how close to the previously infected individual they were sitting:


Another key fact here is that the windows on the bus were closed and the bus' HVAC system was recirculating air.

So what's the takeaway from this? Well, for one, the takeaway is that, at least indoors, forget about the whole 6 feet thing - spacing people out won't reduce the risk. On the other hand, we have good reason to believe that ventilation will - so, if you're going to have people in an enclosed space together (vehicle, room, whatever), open all the windows. Or, if this isn't feasible, set your HVAC system to pull in as much outside air as it can. Either way, do not have people gathering in a room that you cannot make well-ventilated.

[Max Rockatansky]

That hiking expedition into Sierra National Forest went off without a hitch yesterday to Stevenson Creek Falls.  I was a little surprised how many people were out hiking in such a remote part of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on a Friday but it doesn't help that the National Parks are still closed.  Most of the people I saw were definitely the typical Yosemite Valley crowd as opposed to the more seasoned hikers I'm used to seeing out in a National Forest.  That kind of indicates to me that people who are predisposed to at least casually enjoy the outdoors are going to do so one way or the other.  It doesn't seem like such a hot idea to push people deeper into National Forest where a lack of experience can actually get someone into trouble.  I'm planning on doing some cycling alone Blackrock Road and the Kings River out in Sierra/Sequoia National Forest next week...we'll see how that turns with the weather so nice.

[Roadgeekteen]

I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

[Max Rockatansky]

Atwater apparently declares itself a "Sanctuary City" ( ) from California's COVID-19 order:

https://ktla.com/news/california/atwater-declares-itself-a-sanctuary-from-californias-stay-at-home-order/

Now if the Castle Air Museum does reopen I might be paying a return visit.  The SR71 Blackbird is worth the visit alone.

In more minor news, my detail shop has announced they are reopening on Monday.  I'll probably be stopping by this week to get my daily driver waxed and interior cleaned.

[TravelingBethelite]

I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

I second this for similar reasons but also I desperately miss in-person classes. I can make online classes work but I just do not learn nearly as well as I do in person. This is especially the case with calculus, my worst subject and also one of the most important for my major.

[LM117]

A federal judge in NC has granted church leaders a 14-day restraining order against the governor's ban on gatherings of more than 10 people.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/federal-judge-allows-nc-churches-to-meet-inside/19101332/

[1995hoo]

....

Side note: Clergy and funeral directors will likely be a little busier than normal this summer due to the backlog of funerals and memorial services for people who have passed since early March.

My wife's sister died of cancer on March 31. The memorial service is set for May 30 precisely to avoid the sort of backlog you mention. The funeral home is going to livestream it so those of us unwilling to travel can see it. (She's going to be interred in Ohio, so Ms1995hoo and I are taking care of that this fall once travel is a more reasonable option.)

[ghYHZ]

Help me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.

[Max Rockatansky]

Help me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.

You pay if you don't have insurance.  Even with insurance a hospital stay is usually a hefty bill after "reasonable and customary charges."   When I was run over by a car my insurance paid $17,000 roughly, I still had to pick up $900 of the tab.  My insurance was good, people with high deductibles are going to have a bad day when the bill comes.   

[1995hoo]

The other thing is, the rate the uninsured person pays (the "chargemaster" rate) is not the same as the rate someone with insurance pays, especially if the insured person goes to an "in-network" facility. This is an oversimplification, but essentially, the normal procedure is that a provider (doctor, hospital, etc.) that contracts to be part of the insurance carrier's network agrees to accept a specific amount for a particular service and the patient is not billed for the difference (other than any deductible or coinsurance, but those are a matter between the carrier and the patient, not between the patient and the provider). If you go to a "out-of-network" provider, they don't have a contract with the carrier and they can bill you for the difference between the insurance payment and the full rate. (Some medical insurance won't pay anything at all for out-of-network services other than emergency room care. HMOs are a classic example of that, but there are also "in-network-only" plans through traditional insurance. If you have Blue Cross Blue Shield, this isn't that big of a problem because a majority of providers are in-network with them; if you have a lesser carrier, it can be a problem–I used to have difficulties getting in-network service when I had CIGNA for two years.)

To give an example, my dentist is out-of-network on my dental insurance. A cleaning without x-rays costs $98. Insurance pays $87. If he were in-network, the $87 would cover the whole cost, but since he's not, I pay the $11 difference. (Why do I go to an out-of-network dentist? I've gone to him since 1984 and he does a good job. The dental insurance is primarily for my wife and she goes to an in-network provider.) Obviously, $11 isn't a big deal, but multiply that out to some larger amount for more serious medical procedures or inpatient things requiring hospital stays and you'll see how the bills could be crippling.

[J N Winkler]

Help me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.

Unemployed people losing their health insurance--yes, that is a big problem.

People not seeking medical attention they need because they don't have insurance--yes, also a big problem.

Long and short of it:  we are going to hell in a handbasket.

Besides deductibles/co-pays (which can really drive household debt even if they don't actually result in medical bankruptcies), and the difference between negotiated rates and the chargemaster, we have inflexible enrollment windows.  There has actually been a proposal to reopen the Obamacare exchanges (which normally open only in the late autumn for plans that take effect for the following calendar year) to allow people who had insurance but lost it, or possibly never had it in the first place, to buy insurance so they are covered if they come down with COVID-19.  I am not aware action has been taken on it.

Under Obamacare, you used to need "qualifying health insurance" in order not to face a fine (really a tax calculated from your AGI with a floor in the hundreds of dollars).  The Trump administration no longer enforces this requirement, so many people choose to go without insurance.  And even bare Medicare--which will not protect you from bankruptcy if you have serious health problems, because it comes with a 20% copay for most services; most retirees have a Medicare supplement plan to cover it--constitutes qualifying health insurance.

[ghYHZ]

Help me understand how it works down there. If you contact Covid in the US and it requires a Hospital stay. Who pays? I imagine a lot of people that are now unemployed have lost their Health Insurance and this is keeping some from seeking medical attention. I hope this is not the case.

Unemployed people losing their health insurance--yes, that is a big problem.

People not seeking medical attention they need because they don't have insurance--yes, also a big problem.

Long and short of it:  we are going to hell in a handbasket.

This just blows me away! It's something I don't even think about. My out of pocket cost 'if' a Covid hospital stay in the ICU was required would be $0. There are no premiums, deductibles or co-pays.

Sure my taxes might be a bit higher. But comparing that on a monthly basis (doing a rough calculation) is not nearly as much as my brother-in-law in the US now pays for his health insurance premiums and deductibles.

[Max Rockatansky]

I'm watching the NASCAR pre-race at Darlington.  I'm kind of regretting watching the pre-race, I'm more than a little burnt out on the "changed world and this has never happened before" talk.  The medical stuff and preparations are kind of interesting to hear about though. 

[Duke87]

Coverage... varies.

My insurance which is through my employer announced at the beginning of April that they would cover 100% of the cost of any covid-related healthcare through May 31st, regardless of whether you have met your deductible or not. I was told expect this to be extended though I have not yet seen any announcement to such effect.

Some states are using taxpayer money to cover the cost of testing specifically, but in other states you have to pay even for that if you don't have insurance. I don't know to what degree this may extend to the cost of subsequent medical care.

It has been observed that Americans in lower-income households are getting sick and dying at far greater rates than Americans in higher-income households. There is a plethora of reasons why, but out-of-pocket costs for healthcare certainly aren't helping.

[1995hoo]

There has actually been a proposal to reopen the Obamacare exchanges (which normally open only in the late autumn for plans that take effect for the following calendar year) to allow people who had insurance but lost it, or possibly never had it in the first place, to buy insurance so they are covered if they come down with COVID-19.  I am not aware action has been taken on it.

This shouldn't be an issue. If you have a "qualifying event," even outside the open enrollment season, you can go to the exchange and sign up for insurance. I did that in 2018 when I lost my medical insurance because my wife lost her job during the spring–I simply had to provide evidence she had lost her job. The Obamacare coverage is very expensive, though, so it's not at all a particularly good solution for most people who lose their jobs–it costs significantly more than the employee's share of most employer-subsidized coverage.

[Scott5114]

I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

I second this for similar reasons but also I desperately miss in-person classes. I can make online classes work but I just do not learn nearly as well as I do in person. This is especially the case with calculus, my worst subject and also one of the most important for my major.

Take this as an opportunity to build the skills to learn without an instructor. Once you graduate, you'll still need to keep learning–the world doesn't stop changing, and new skills will be needed for employment–there just won't be anyone there to teach it to you except you.

[Roadgeekteen]

Governor Baker has announced plans to start reopening Massachusetts.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/gov-charlie-baker-to-detail-reopening-massachusetts/2126266/

[wanderer2575]

I'm watching the NASCAR pre-race at Darlington.  I'm kind of regretting watching the pre-race, I'm more than a little burnt out on the "changed world and this has never happened before" talk.  The medical stuff and preparations are kind of interesting to hear about though.

I'm about ready to put a brick through my television the next time I hear the announcer on some retail company's commercial talking about "these uncertain times" with emotional music in the background.  Just get to the real message, which is that you want us to still buy your product.

[Max Rockatansky]

I'm watching the NASCAR pre-race at Darlington.  I'm kind of regretting watching the pre-race, I'm more than a little burnt out on the "changed world and this has never happened before" talk.  The medical stuff and preparations are kind of interesting to hear about though.

I'm about ready to put a brick through my television the next time I hear the announcer on some retail company's commercial talking about "these uncertain times" with emotional music in the background.  Just get to the real message, which is that you want us to still buy your product.

It kind of made me thing; "what times are actually certain for most people?"   Most people live paycheck to paycheck even before the virus stuff happened, any little thing could have potentially brought on "uncertainty."   Hell, anyone of us could get sick from horrible disease or suffer a horrific injury...there isn't any certainty to any of that.  I think that there is a lot of reason to believe that most place "routine and normalcy"  as the same thing as "certainty and stability."   Either way, it's annoying hearing how awful the world is by every single entity attempting to advertise something. 

The worst is the commercials with celebrity types telling people to stay home.  The last thing I'll listen to is the advice of someone like Kim Kardashian. 

[ozarkman417]

I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.

[Max Rockatansky]

I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.

Apparently there had been a ton of extra military retention given most colleges don't have a clear plan for the next semester.  The stable paycheck of a military renewal seems to be a pretty attractive, especially when the GI bill can be kicked down the road. 

[MikieTimT]

I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.

Apparently there had been a ton of extra military retention given most colleges don't have a clear plan for the next semester.  The stable paycheck of a military renewal seems to be a pretty attractive, especially when the GI bill can be kicked down the road.

Not to mention the awesome socialized medical coverage for life that is the VA!!

[Max Rockatansky]

I hope school reopens in the fall. I'm already experiencing negative affects to my mental health as I'm socially cut off, but it's not that bad yet.

Online classes feel very draining for me. There are too many distractions at home. When it comes to college I imagine students feel like they have been ripped off. I don't have that much social interaction outside of school, and I'm disappointed my entire track season was cancelled.

Apparently there had been a ton of extra military retention given most colleges don't have a clear plan for the next semester.  The stable paycheck of a military renewal seems to be a pretty attractive, especially when the GI bill can be kicked down the road.

Not to mention the awesome socialized medical coverage for life that is the VA!!

Even Tricare and access to something like a military base clinic look pretty good right now.  Usually those clinics are ghost towns compared to the outside world.