Coronavirus pandemic

[SEWIGuy]

It turns out Houston's hospitals are not in a panic, echoing what Brandon said earlier in the thread:

http://www.memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke's-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children's-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/

I think a lot of hospitals learned from what happened in New York.

But I will point out that this doesn't mean that hospitalizations are going down.  Just that the hospitals have created capacity.

[Roadgeekteen]

In Michigan, I would say 80-90% of people are wearing masks inside at grocery stores (even in my home county, which had 12 COVID cases [11 of whom have recovered] as of earlier this week).

Whitmer is alarmed with the rise of cases this week (most of them found via contact tracing and known exposure locations), but there have been around 2,500 new cases in the last week (which is much lower than TX, AZ, FL, and CA, all of whom are averaging over 2,500 per DAY). ICU capacity is very good in Michigan (under 400 hospitalized COVID cases statewide last week, when there were nearly 4,000 hospitalized COVID cases statewide in mid-April).

I have yet to see someone not wearing a mask. Everyone seems to have just accepted it as a part of life for now.

I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

Is mask usage required in Oklahoma?

[tradephoric]

But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

If the increase in diagnoses were a result of more testing, the positivity rate would be going down.  The positivity rate is going up rapidly, meaning that whatever portion of the cases we're catching is smaller than it was before, meaning that the actual spread is much faster than what's being measured, and by a higher multiple than it was a month ago.  I don't know if it's worse than April, but it's bad.  The spread today won't be measured for another week, and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths will continue for another three weeks after that.  The first thing to slow down will probably be the positivity rate, then the confirmed case rate.  The other numbers will keep going up for a while.  For right now, everything is headed in the wrong direction very fast.  Hopefully what we've learned from other places will help keep the death rate down.

Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

[kalvado]

Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 

Probably not. There should be few cohorts being tested - something like high priority with symptoms, the medium priority with traced contact, lower priority walk-ins. I bet probability of positive test is higher in first two groups - and a lot of capacity increase should go to lower risk cohort.

[J N Winkler]

I went to Lowe's the other day, and I was the only non-employee in the building wearing a mask.

On my recent weekly trips to the grocery store, all of the employees have been wearing masks while only about half of the customers have been.  And grocery shopping is often a family activity (with cases going up, it's been getting harder not to think of this as making sure the virus gets spread).

In Wichita, we are currently up to five restaurants that have reopened and then had to close as a result of employees contracting covid-19 or being exposed to someone who has it.

[Roadgeekteen]

https://people.com/health/85-new-coronavirus-cases-linked-michigan-bar/

Bars. don't. need. to. open.

[US71]

https://people.com/health/85-new-coronavirus-cases-linked-michigan-bar/

Bars. don't. need. to. open.

Texas closed theirs (finally)

[AsphaltPlanet]

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

If the increase in diagnoses were a result of more testing, the positivity rate would be going down.  The positivity rate is going up rapidly, meaning that whatever portion of the cases we're catching is smaller than it was before, meaning that the actual spread is much faster than what's being measured, and by a higher multiple than it was a month ago.  I don't know if it's worse than April, but it's bad.  The spread today won't be measured for another week, and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths will continue for another three weeks after that.  The first thing to slow down will probably be the positivity rate, then the confirmed case rate.  The other numbers will keep going up for a while.  For right now, everything is headed in the wrong direction very fast.  Hopefully what we've learned from other places will help keep the death rate down.

Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida
[/quote]

But it's just the media "fear mongering." Seriously some people just don't get it.

I watched a 15 minute segment on CNN with the lower thirds showing "DAILY NEW CASES HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT DURING THIS PANDEMIC".  But at no point did they attempt to explain how the record new cases can be largely attributed to the dramatic increase in testing.  By not putting the data into context viewers may fear that today's situation is worse than it was back in April, and that's simply not the case.

If the increase in diagnoses were a result of more testing, the positivity rate would be going down.  The positivity rate is going up rapidly, meaning that whatever portion of the cases we're catching is smaller than it was before, meaning that the actual spread is much faster than what's being measured, and by a higher multiple than it was a month ago.  I don't know if it's worse than April, but it's bad.  The spread today won't be measured for another week, and the resulting hospitalizations and deaths will continue for another three weeks after that.  The first thing to slow down will probably be the positivity rate, then the confirmed case rate.  The other numbers will keep going up for a while.  For right now, everything is headed in the wrong direction very fast.  Hopefully what we've learned from other places will help keep the death rate down.

Over the past few days there has been a dramatic spike in the number of tests performed in Florida (news media is reporting cars lined up for 12 hours waiting to get tested).  Just a week ago Florida was reporting 3286 positive tests among 23,265 total tests (percentage positive = 14.1%).  They last reported 9585 positive tests among 60,640 total tests (percentage positive = 15.8%).   I would argue that the near tripling in positive tests in Florida over the past week has been due to a near tripling in testing. 


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida

Except that when there were days where a large amount of tests were being conducted in the middle of May, the amount of positive tests didn't spike like it is spiking now.

I'm sure that there is a relationship between the number of tests and the number of positive tests (there has to be), but to think that the numbers aren't growing as a result of rather lax restrictions on spreading is a pretty naive assumption.

[jmacswimmer]

Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html

[Roadgeekteen]

Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html

Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

[kalvado]

Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html

Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

It is still something to be seen in a few years.
Total virus eradication is not on the table. So what would happen in 10 years? Some plausible scenarios are herd immunity, either via vaccination or disease survival, or an island of non-immune people locked in their safe area with periodic flares of infection, followed by lockdowns, and what not.  I don't really see any other options.
A vaccine is still an IF, not WHEN. And if previous major epidemics are of any comparative value, second wave would arrive to NE US/Europe in winter. Chances are no massive vaccinations by then.
So "slow burn" Sweden approach may turn out to be the best, and well-handled EU may be hammered.  US is not taking advantage of either maintaining economy during high season nor of a break in the middle of the fire.
Or maybe US rate would end up optimal, with enough people being immune to quench winter wave. Hindsight never lies, so those of us who survive this will know for sure.

[Roadgeekteen]

Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html

Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

It is still something to be seen in a few years.
Total virus eradication is not on the table. So what would happen in 10 years? Some plausible scenarios are herd immunity, either via vaccination or disease survival, or an island of non-immune people locked in their safe area with periodic flares of infection, followed by lockdowns, and what not.  I don't really see any other options.
A vaccine is still an IF, not WHEN. And if previous major epidemics are of any comparative value, second wave would arrive to NE US/Europe in winter. Chances are no massive vaccinations by then.
So "slow burn" Sweden approach may turn out to be the best, and well-handled EU may be hammered.  US is not taking advantage of either maintaining economy during high season nor of a break in the middle of the fire.
Or maybe US rate would end up optimal, with enough people being immune to quench winter wave. Hindsight never lies, so those of us who survive this will know for sure.

Didn't Fauci say that a vaccine was a when not an if?

[tradephoric]

Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html

Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

Europe has handled this better based on what metric?  According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control there has been 1.54 million cases and 176k deaths in the European Economic Area (EEA).   America has 2.56 million cases yet only 127k deaths.  America has more robust testing (resulting in a million more cases) and fewer deaths than the EEA.... based on the data how is Europe handling this a lot better?? 


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

[US71]

Didn't Fauci say that a vaccine was a when not an if?

"When" seems to be a sticking point. Also effectiveness (permanent vs temporary immunity).

[kalvado]

Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html

Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

It is still something to be seen in a few years.
Total virus eradication is not on the table. So what would happen in 10 years? Some plausible scenarios are herd immunity, either via vaccination or disease survival, or an island of non-immune people locked in their safe area with periodic flares of infection, followed by lockdowns, and what not.  I don't really see any other options.
A vaccine is still an IF, not WHEN. And if previous major epidemics are of any comparative value, second wave would arrive to NE US/Europe in winter. Chances are no massive vaccinations by then.
So "slow burn" Sweden approach may turn out to be the best, and well-handled EU may be hammered.  US is not taking advantage of either maintaining economy during high season nor of a break in the middle of the fire.
Or maybe US rate would end up optimal, with enough people being immune to quench winter wave. Hindsight never lies, so those of us who survive this will know for sure.

Didn't Fauci say that a vaccine was a when not an if?

in principle, 2100 is "when", but for practical purposes it is "never"...

[MikeTheActuary]

I'm sure that there is a relationship between the number of tests and the number of positive tests (there has to be), but to think that the numbers aren't growing as a result of rather lax restrictions on spreading is a pretty naive assumption.

Think of it this way:  when test kits are limited, testing was prioritized for those who had suspected cases or suspected exposures to COVID, and you would expect positivity rates to be relatively high.  Then, as more test kits become available, if testing criteria evolve towards "everybody just get tested on a regular basis", then all other things being equal, you would expect the positivity rates to trend down towards the "real" active infection rate in the population.

The fact that testing rates have increased and the quoted positivity rates have remained the same or increased is not a good sign.

A point of trivia for comparison:  In Connecticut, positivity rates are about 1.25%.   A positivity rate in excess of 10% is one of the criteria for a state to be covered by the (relatively toothless) NJ/NY/CT quarantine order.

[tradephoric]

There is roughly 6X more testing being done today than in early April when daily cases peaked at 34k.  We would need to see about 200k daily cases before returning to how bad things were in April (when over 2000 people were dying each day). That's not to say we won't get to that number especially considering the South and West have begun their exponential rise in cases (but 10k daily cases in Florida today isn't the same as 10k daily cases in New York back in April).  If people are freaking out about 40k daily cases today, jut wait till it's up over 200k.  It's just unfortunate that the media will focus on the daily numbers to argue that the administration is failing (especially when increases in daily numbers indicates that robust testing is taking place).   



What are the chances we get to 200k cases per day?  Pretty good considering we locked down the entire country when only the Northeast region was experiencing a significant outbreak.  The lock-downs delayed the "first wave" from extending to the other regions of the country but the virus is hitting them pretty hard now.

[Sctvhound]

In Michigan, I would say 80-90% of people are wearing masks inside at grocery stores (even in my home county, which had 12 COVID cases [11 of whom have recovered] as of earlier this week).

Whitmer is alarmed with the rise of cases this week (most of them found via contact tracing and known exposure locations), but there have been around 2,500 new cases in the last week (which is much lower than TX, AZ, FL, and CA, all of whom are averaging over 2,500 per DAY). ICU capacity is very good in Michigan (under 400 hospitalized COVID cases statewide last week, when there were nearly 4,000 hospitalized COVID cases statewide in mid-April).

Different story here in SC. We probably are one of the 2-3 worst states right now, as our positivity rate has gone to 20%. Masks depend on where you are in the state. Columbia has a mask ordinance, along with Greenville (two of the largest cities). Charleston starts July 1.

I was at the grocery store on James Island (near Charleston) today and 75% of shoppers were wearing masks. You go to a more conservative area though, and some places barely anybody is wearing one.

[Roadgeekteen]

In Massachusetts today, the percent positive dipped back under 2% so that's good.

[SEWIGuy]

There is roughly 6X more testing being done today than in early April when daily cases peaked at 34k.  We would need to see about 200k daily cases before returning to how bad things were in April (when over 2000 people were dying each day). That's not to say we won't get to that number especially considering the South and West have begun their exponential rise in cases (but 10k daily cases in Florida today isn't the same as 10k daily cases in New York back in April).  If people are freaking out about 40k daily cases today, jut wait till it's up over 200k.  It's just unfortunate that the media will focus on the daily numbers to argue that the administration is failing (especially when increases in daily numbers indicates that robust testing is taking place).   



What are the chances we get to 200k cases per day?  Pretty good considering we locked down the entire country when only the Northeast region was experiencing a significant outbreak.  The lock-downs delayed the "first wave" from extending to the other regions of the country but the virus is hitting them pretty hard now.

This was just explained to you. Testing is not prioritized for the sick. This high a percentage rate based on "anyone can get a test"  is a sign of very large community spread. If that many people are carrying around and no realizing it, they can pass it to those more vulnerable. Which means hospitalizations and deaths could significantly rise in the coming weeks.

So yes the cases going up with this amount of testing is alarming and a bad sign.

[Roadgeekteen]

Welp, can't say I fault Europe for this decision:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/world/europe/europe-us-travel-ban.html

Good decision, as Europe has handled this a lot better than we have.

Europe has handled this better based on what metric?  According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control there has been 1.54 million cases and 176k deaths in the European Economic Area (EEA).   America has 2.56 million cases yet only 127k deaths.  America has more robust testing (resulting in a million more cases) and fewer deaths than the EEA.... based on the data how is Europe handling this a lot better?? 


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Well, our cases are increasing right now and their cases are decreasing.

[tradephoric]

Well, our cases are increasing right now and their cases are decreasing.

Since April 30th daily testing has nearly tripled in the United States while daily testing has actually decreased in the UK during the same time period.  It's easy for the numbers to drop on the back side of a pandemic if testing isn't increasing.  I don't disagree that the cases are rising in the United States but a consistent rise in daily tests over the past 2 months is largely the reason.  Nationwide there has been a bump in percentage positive tests (largely due to outbreaks in Arizona, California, Texas, South Carolina, and Florida) and that is why we are seeing daily cases really taking off... but the spike in daily cases are magnified by the fact we are testing so many more people now than we were in early April. 

You can look at the raw numbers and say America is doing a poor job simply because daily cases are increasing.  That would be a superficial view of the situation but that's exactly what the media is going to be doing for the next 2 months so you might as well join in on the fun.


https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-covid-19-tests-per-day?time=..&country=GBR~USA

[tradephoric]

This was just explained to you. Testing is not prioritized for the sick. This high a percentage rate based on "anyone can get a test"  is a sign of very large community spread. If that many people are carrying around and no realizing it, they can pass it to those more vulnerable. Which means hospitalizations and deaths could significantly rise in the coming weeks.

So yes the cases going up with this amount of testing is alarming and a bad sign.

What can i say of course it isn't great that there is a significant rise in cases in some states.  But did you really think Florida, Texas, and Arizona - who were largely spared from the virus in March/April - would just magically avoid it when they started to reopen?  No doubt more people are catching the virus in certain states (evidenced by the rising percentage positive tests) but it's nowhere near as bad as what New York was facing in April (which has been my main point over the past few posts.. just because we are seeing record high cases doesn't mean things are that bad).  At its worse there were 1,000 deaths a day in NY.  California being double the population of NY could potentially see 2,000 deaths per day if they get hit similarly hard.  Today California is averaging 59 deaths a day due to COVID which is 28% fewer deaths than its peak average of 82 deaths on April 23rd.   So even with a tripling in daily cases in California since April 23rd, there has been a 28% reduction in deaths.  Increased cases doesn't necessarily equate to increased deaths... California being a good example of this.  Just pump the brakes a little.

[webny99]

In Wichita, we are currently up to five restaurants that have reopened and then had to close as a result of employees contracting covid-19 or being exposed to someone who has it.

I think we are beyond that phase here in New York, including upstate. Testing is easy and readily available - for a few weeks there you could drive up to DIY testing sites, but more recently, appointments are being required. These are typically booked online for your choice of time (in 15-minute blocks) the next day. Test results are guaranteed to be emailed within 24 hours, but often much sooner - I have heard several reports through the grapevine of results being obtained in 1-2 hours.
As such, a deep cleaning of the facility in question and negative test result from all employees can be done in 48 hours or less, so it seems unlikely that a business would have to officially "close" for any significant length of time, although I'm not sure how this has been working in practice.

[J N Winkler]

In Wichita, we are currently up to five restaurants that have reopened and then had to close as a result of employees contracting covid-19 or being exposed to someone who has it.

I think we are beyond that phase here in New York, including upstate. Testing is easy and readily available - for a few weeks there you could drive up to DIY testing sites, but more recently, appointments are being required. These are typically booked online for your choice of time (in 15-minute blocks) the next day. Test results are guaranteed to be emailed within 24 hours, but often much sooner - I have heard several reports through the grapevine of results being obtained in 1-2 hours.

As such, a deep cleaning of the facility in question and negative test result from all employees can be done in 48 hours or less, so it seems unlikely that a business would have to officially "close" for any significant length of time, although I'm not sure how this has been working in practice.

Testing is not that readily available here--you have to phone and wait for a callback, which typically comes the next day if you have symptoms, or a week later (if at all) if you don't.  We can only dream of being able to book them online.  Some of the restaurants that had to close did opt to sanitize and re-open within a few days, but not all have.  Reopening as quickly as we have has done nothing for business owners' confidence that the pandemic is under control locally.