Coronavirus pandemic

[SEWIGuy]

SMH.  Viruses don't "peter out."  Stop with that nonsense.

[tradephoric]

Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau.  That's why i don't think NYC has to be fearful of people from Florida coming in and reinfecting everyone... as many from NYC have already been infected and there is no widespread proof that people are getting infected a second time.

My own state of Kansas was well into a good downward trend, when suddenly the curve started trending steeply upward again.  "Petering out" isn't necessarily the beginning of the end.

Again, take a look at Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii.

There has never been widespread infections in Montana, Alaska, Hawaii, or Kansas.  None of those states had positivity rates anywhere close to what New York and Michigan were experiencing back in April.  The virus hasn't "petered out" in those states, rather those states have just been able to temporarily contain the virus.  But upon reopening their economies, the virus is rearing it's ugly head again.

[kphoger]

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

Have they actually figured out yet how long people remain immune to the virus?

[SEWIGuy]

Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

They haven't. 

[tradephoric]

Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

They haven't. 

What's your proof that NYC hasn't reached "herd immunity"?  Admittedly i don't know the full status of NYC lock down measures, but it's pretty evident that not everyone is safely socially distancing.  There were groups of thousands of people gathering together during the George Floyd protests yet that didn't lead to a noticeable increase in cases.  I just took a random screenshot of a NYC traffic cam and people are filling the streets.  Back in March when looking through the NYC traffic cams the city was looking a bit deserted, but not anymore. 



There was a case study out of China where one infected person on a bus infected dozens of other riders.  There are coronavirus infected people in NYC as we speak, some probably riding on a NYC bus, yet they aren't infecting everyone around them.  Early in this pandemic a few dozen coronavirus hospitalizations exploded into over 1700 in less than a month.  Now over the past several weeks hospitalizations have been averaging below 50 (and holding steady even as more people in the city seem to disregard social distancing guidelines). 

[SEWIGuy]

Because "petered out" doesn't mean gone.  Reduced isn't zero.  And who's to say that someone from an active area won't come into the newly wide-open city and start the infections again?  Unless you're assuming NYC has reached the "herd immunity" plateau.

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

They haven't. 

What's your proof that NYC hasn't reached "herd immunity"?

Scientific consensus.  Yours?

[tradephoric]

The novel coronavirus is a new virus by its very definition.  There's not a tremendous amount of "scientific consensus" as it relates to this virus.

[SEWIGuy]

The novel coronavirus is a new virus by its very definition.  There's not a tremendous amount of "scientific consensus" as it relates to this virus.

There is pretty strong scientific consensus about herd immunity. 

[kalvado]

The novel coronavirus is a new virus by its very definition.  There's not a tremendous amount of "scientific consensus" as it relates to this virus.

There is pretty strong scientific consensus about herd immunity.

I didn't see a good explanation why certain people get very sick, some don't. A friend-of-a-friend had 2 positive swabs (not a false positive!), no symptoms, no antibodies.
There is a number for antibody carriers - in 20-25-30% range in hot spots - which is way below herd limit, but what it really means? Is it possible that another 50% are naturally resistive to this virus? Or maybe IgM is below detection limit in another 30%?
We will certainly know much more 5 years from now, though...

[US71]

Maybe the South and Southwest should shut down, since they never shut down properly last time, and that's where the spikes in cases are.
But the Northeast is definitely not shutting down again.

Maybe we need a Control-ALT-Delete on 2020?

[webny99]

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

Have they actually figured out yet how long people remain immune to the virus?

If NYC has, they haven't told the rest of us.

[kphoger]

Maybe the South and Southwest should shut down, since they never shut down properly last time, and that's where the spikes in cases are.
But the Northeast is definitely not shutting down again.

New England, New York, and New Jersey are still looking pretty good–although I'm wondering if Rhode Island might be starting to trend upward again.

However, Maryland is starting to trend upward again and Delaware is still bouncing around.  Depending on whether or not you count Virginia and West Virginia as being part of the Northeast, you can count those two states as having upward-moving trends.

[kalvado]

I am one who believes that NYC has reached a "herd immunity" plateau. 

Have they actually figured out yet how long people remain immune to the virus?

If NYC has, they haven't told the rest of us.

SARS - which is a related virus - has immunity response going down in 2-3 years with <10% people having significant antibodies at 6 year mark. What that means  in terms of reinfection is not known.

[Eth]

It seems that once a state reaches a test positivity of about 30% the virus begins to peter out (basically running out of new people to infect).

Sure enough (going by rolling 7-day totals), Georgia's test positivity rate peaked at about 29% in early April before starting to go down. It's pretty clear that it had not run out of people in the state to infect at that time, though; rather, the drop is likely attributable to (a) testing beginning to ramp up, and (b) the fact that a statewide shelter-in-place order went into effect about one week earlier.

My own state of Kansas was well into a good downward trend, when suddenly the curve started trending steeply upward again.  "Petering out" isn't necessarily the beginning of the end.

Again, take a look at Montana, Alaska, and Hawaii.

Likewise, Georgia's downward trend was proceeding quite well through about mid-May, with the positive test ratio falling below 4%*. Now, of course, we're back to over 15%.

* This number may be artificially low, as it occurred during the time period when GDPH was not differentiating between regular tests and antibody tests. The "real" number was likely more like 5-6%.

[LM117]

Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

CVS, Target, Kroger, Kohl's, and Best Buy have joined the club.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html

Lowe's and Home Depot have also announced mask requirements.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/business/home-depot-lowes-masks-required/index.html

[J N Winkler]

Walmart is requiring masks in all its stores:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-walmart-sams-club-face-mask-shop

CVS, Target, Kroger, Kohl's, and Best Buy have joined the club.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html

Lowe's and Home Depot have also announced mask requirements.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/business/home-depot-lowes-masks-required/index.html

The Fox Business article linked above gives July 20 as the effective date of Walmart's policy, which also applies to Sam's Club.

I went to a Sam's near me yesterday to do some bulk shopping.  I had to show my membership card at a booth within the entrance, which had a large sign indicating masks were required and blaming it on the "local government."  Since I had my mask on when I entered, I am not sure whether they were actively enforcing mask wearing at that store.

Most shoppers were wearing their masks correctly, though a few people were wearing theirs around their necks rather than their noses and mouths.

[US71]

I made a quick trip to Harp's Grocery today and many people weren't wearing masks. Employees were, I was, but less that half of the other customers. They also didn't have "One Way Aisles"

[SectorZ]

**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.

No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.

I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...

[Max Rockatansky]

**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.

No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.

I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...

Part of something that has consistently bothered me more and more during the COVID pandemic is the lack of acknowledgement that death occurs many other ways.  Even with how cases are trending now COVID won't even approach the number of fatalities related to heart disease and cancer.  I've had relatively die of both of those already this year and a third one is likely to be taken down by cancer by year end.  I only know of one family member who tested positive for COVID-19 and the only reason she took a test was due to her job as a nurse.  We're way past the point of telling people to sit in their houses and not leave them for six weeks (Which I believe actually occurred in Europe early on) with the present mortality projections.  Given recent projections on mortality have been as low as 0.3% those uber draconian lock down policies seen early on 2020 aren't going to garner much support. 

[US71]

FWIW I've been in self isolation (except for groceries and laundry) since mid-March. Otherwise, This forum and Fakebook are the only contact I've had with the outside world.  I don't like it, but I'm doing it for myself and the greater good (tm).

I don't believe the rubbish about "more people will die", but I'm sure some will simply for lack of any semblance of human contact.

My 2 pfennigs.

[Max Rockatansky]

FWIW I've been in self isolation (except for groceries and laundry) since mid-March. Otherwise, This forum and Fakebook are the only contact I've had with the outside world.  I don't like it, but I'm doing it for myself and the greater good (tm).

I don't believe the rubbish about "more people will die", but I'm sure some will simply for lack of any semblance of human contact.

My 2 pfennigs.

I'm a pretty introverted person myself.  To that end I've found myself in the unusual position of having to be in contact with more people than normal since the pandemic began.  A lot of that is driven by my job, it still seems odd to me to find out how many white collar workers haven't been on their office in months.  On the private life side I've been often the one who has gone and gotten things or done errands for family members who couldn't leave the house...or werent comfortable doing so.

To that end as time wears on I don't think the bulk of the so called "greater good"  to be as much as a thing as people say...or perhaps not as worth it as it might have previously been stated.  But to that end a lot of that has to do with how more is known about COVID-19 versus early 2020.  I do find myself kind of surprised that many people really thought and continue to think that the cat can be put back in the bag with cases rising.  Even with masks and all these safety protocols in public places it is pretty much inevitable at this point for known cases to increase.  Sure increased testing plays a part but any virus will spread given the opportunity to do so.  It seems as though the calculus being used now is assuming the benefits of reopening outweighs the risks in a lot of states and places (certainly not all).  I guess everyone has to decide for themselves how they want to respond to what is happening around them.   

[kalvado]

Part of something that has consistently bothered me more and more during the COVID pandemic is the lack of acknowledgement that death occurs many other ways.  Even with how cases are trending now COVID won't even approach the number of fatalities related to heart disease and cancer.  I've had relatively die of both of those already this year and a third one is likely to be taken down by cancer by year end.  I only know of one family member who tested positive for COVID-19 and the only reason she took a test was due to her job as a nurse.  We're way past the point of telling people to sit in their houses and not leave them for six weeks (Which I believe actually occurred in Europe early on) with the present mortality projections.  Given recent projections on mortality have been as low as 0.3% those uber draconian lock down policies seen early on 2020 aren't going to garner much support.

Depends on how you measure. During days and weeks of the peak, covid is the dominant reason of death as in total death rate more than doubles.
And remember, 0.3% is with all the resources - including those freed up from "non-essential elective" surgeries (which, of course, also has its human cost!). It could end up being higher if runaway mode in the south doesn't stop, like, yesterday.

[Max Rockatansky]

Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

[US71]

Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't that like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

[Max Rockatansky]

Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

No I'm not saying that, I'm not even sure how you drew the inference to the reply you quoted (maybe the one before?).   I was just saying that any projection on mortality is just that; "a projection."  

But to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?

In the context of Confirmed Cases versus Hospitalizations and Fatalities yes I think there is far more value in the latter two.  Confirmed Cases doesn't really convey the degree of seriousness a case or may/may not have.  It has value in terms of determine who should self isolate for 14 days or contact tracing but it doesn't provide much data on the effects of COVID beyond projected distribution.  If I recall correctly the amount of real cases in most jurisdictions is projected to be two to four times higher than confirmed cases at any time?  Hospitalizations and fatalities get more to the meat of how people with serious symptoms are being affected by the virus.