The Census has released its population estimates for 2020

[webny99]

Every census since at least 1990, the census has put out a text file listing every incorporated place and CDP, along with population, number of housing units, latitude, and longitude.

Anyone know if they have this out yet, or where I can find it?

See replies 171-176 - It's not out yet, but it will be out by Sept. 30.

[golden eagle]

Wake County is now the largest county in North Carolina, even though second-place Mecklenburg contains Charlotte, the state's largest city. Wake is physically larger than Mecklenburg, so that could possibly play a role.

My county (Hinds, MS) has dropped quite a bit to the point that Harrison County could overtake us, probably in the next 15-20 years.

Nashville appears it will be the largest city in Tennessee. I saw this coming, so no surprise.

Is it possible that Fort Worth will grow larger than Austin in the near future?

[webny99]

Is it possible that Fort Worth will grow larger than Austin in the near future?

It's remotely possible, but seems very unlikely because they're so comparable in terms of growth rates. If anything, Austin has been the faster-growing of the two in recent years.

[CoreySamson]

Also, three Houston suburbs (Pearland, League City, and Sugar Land) have made it to the 100k club. What makes these three stand out is their change since the last census (+37.89%, +36.90%, and +40.87%, respectively). All three are in the top eleven fastest-growing 100k+ cities. However, Frisco has them all beat with a percent change of 71.39%!

Also I noticed Phoenix overtook Philadelphia as the 5th-largest city in the US.

[plain]

I didn't say it before because I was in a bit of denial when I saw the numbers but dammit I got to say it.. I see you Newark and Jersey City!

Really Jersey City wasn't too shocking per se but Newark definitely was a surprise.

[Road Hog]

I was surprised that Fayetteville (and not Springdale) was the city that jumped Fort Smith to become the second-largest in Arkansas. The conventional thought was that Fayetteville is land-locked by surrounding towns and won't be able to grow much more, and Springdale at least had space to develop.

Or maybe it's just as simple as Fayetteville had better response to the census.

[Scott5114]

Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).

[I-55]

Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).

Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?

[Rothman]

Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).

Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?

Ithaca, NY wanted to try this.

[noelbotevera]

Pennsylvania...

-Phoenix overtakes Philadelphia for 5th populous city; Philly grew by 5% versus an 11% growth in Phoenix
-Pennsylvania overtakes Illinois to become the 5th populous state - this gap is currently 200,000 people
-Cumberland County is the fastest growing county in Pennsylvania, with a percent change of 9.31% - it is on pace to overtake Erie County
-Other regions of growth are the Philadelphia suburbs, the Lehigh Valley, and the Susquehanna Valley. One exception is Centre County, which is home to State College
-Cameron County had a negative growth rate of 14.60%; the primary losers were in the northern half of the state, except for Cambria (loss of 11%) located west of Altoona

[Scott5114]

Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).

Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?

cabiness would have a better answer to this. However, I would imagine a college town would be associated with a higher rate of multi-family dwellings like apartments. Some students may rent off-campus apartments and stay there even when classes are not in session (meaning they would unquestionably count toward their college town in the census, and not where their parents live.

[kalvado]

Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).

Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?

cabiness would have a better answer to this. However, I would imagine a college town would be associated with a higher rate of multi-family dwellings like apartments. Some students may rent off-campus apartments and stay there even when classes are not in session (meaning they would unquestionably count toward their college town in the census, and not where their parents live.

From census web site:

Per the Census Bureau's residence criteria, in most cases students living away from home at school should be counted at school, even if they are temporarily elsewhere due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/modifying-2020-operations-for-counting-college-students.html

[NWI_Irish96]

Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).

Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?

Students living in a college dorm or off-campus housing as of Census day should be counted there. If dorms were closed on April 1 due to COVID, students who had been living there were still supposed to be counted there, but obviously that was more challenging.

As for counting toward a city's population, that of course depends on the dorms/housing being in side the city limits. In the case of Notre Dame, for example, the campus is not within the city limits of South Bend or any other city (thus the existence of the Notre Dame CDP) but most off-campus student housing is.

[SP Cook]

Because different states define and classify a "city"  differently, and because many cities are located on rivers that are state lines, I have always thought that the MSA is a better measure of city size.  Really, the best measure of a city's sphere of influence, IMHO, is the Nielsen DMA. 

Since people are doing their states, I will do WV's horrid numbers:

- WV lost more %age of people than any other state, 3.3%.  Only MS and IL also lost population, both much smaller losses.

- Only eight (of 55) counties gained population.  Berkeley gained 17% and Jefferson gained 8%.  Both are exurbs of the DC metro area.  Monongalia, the home of WVU, gained 10% and its only suburb, Preston, gained 2%.  Putnam, the suburban county between Huntington and Charleston, gained, but only 3%, having gained 12, 17, 38, 12, 20 and 8 %s in the previous 6 censuses, an indication that it is both getting kind of  full, and that the flight from the rest of the state also affects its bureaucrats (Kanawha, the state capital) lost 6%.    Hardy and Pleasants had tiny gains, but have tiny populations to start with, making %age discussions misleading.  The only difficult to explain one is Lewis, which grew by a solid 4%.

As to cities, such as they are, Charleston and Huntington continue to be within a few thousand of each other., in the high 40s.  Morgantown has grown to over 30K, passing Parkersburg which is down to 29K.

[bandit957]

Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.

[US 89]

Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.

How? College towns almost certainly got undercounted with students normally living there living at home during the pandemic. As cabiness states those students were supposed to still be counted towards their college town, but that is a hell of a lot harder when nobody is on campus to count or be counted.

[bandit957]

Urban areas and especially college towns are damn lucky the census was conducted in April 2020, instead of being conducted right now.

How? College towns almost certainly got undercounted with students normally living there living at home during the pandemic.

I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.

[kalvado]

Population density may also be increasing faster in Fayetteville (which would make sense, as that's where the university is).

Do they count university students in the city's population? Even if their primary address is outside the city?

Students living in a college dorm or off-campus housing as of Census day should be counted there. If dorms were closed on April 1 due to COVID, students who had been living there were still supposed to be counted there, but obviously that was more challenging.

As for counting toward a city's population, that of course depends on the dorms/housing being in side the city limits. In the case of Notre Dame, for example, the campus is not within the city limits of South Bend or any other city (thus the existence of the Notre Dame CDP) but most off-campus student housing is.

I remember fun (or horror, depending on which side of the table you are) story about voting at local university dorms. The parcel is split between 3 municipalities, so students had to report building, sometimes room, and most lucky ones - location of their beds within the room - to be assigned to proper poll. All in the name of protecting student's rights, of course. 
Another aspect of it, one of 3 fire departments should respond to a 911 call, depending on where the call comes from. Since state university dorms are tax exempt, no FD is willing to take more responsibility than they must...

[kphoger]

I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.

I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU.  Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only.  She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that.  So she's no longer going to KU:  she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead.  Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.

[webny99]

Here's an interesting and really mind-blowing fact about New York that goes a long way towards explaining why upstate NY is so irrelevant to NYC:

If you remove upstate NY, which has a population of about 6.1 million depending on your exact definition, the remainder of NY state (NYC, Long Island and environs) is still the 4th-most populous state in the country, with a population of about 14.1 million. And not only that, there's still a comfortable margin of ~1 million people over 5th-place Pennsylvania.

So when we say that downstate NY controls state politics, doesn't care about anything upstate or even acknowledge that it exists, keep that in mind: it's the 4th-most populous state with or without 80% of it's land area.

[kalvado]

I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.

I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU.  Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only.  She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that.  So she's no longer going to KU:  she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead.  Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.

Online education seems to be a disaster, and there is no guarantee things would be much better this year. Those who can actually learn online would be much better served with specially prepared edX and Coursera classes compared to makeshift ones most schools made in a hurry (guilty as charged myself).
Hot job market and possible change in tuition policies should also play a role.

[SkyPesos]

Here's an interesting and really mind-blowing fact about New York that goes a long way towards explaining why upstate NY is so irrelevant to NYC:

If you remove upstate NY, which has a population of about 6.1 million depending on your exact definition, the remainder of NY state (NYC, Long Island and environs) is still the 4th-most populous state in the country, with a population of about 14.1 million. And not only that, there's still a comfortable margin of ~1 million people over 5th-place Pennsylvania.

So when we say that downstate NY controls state politics, doesn't care about anything upstate or even acknowledge that it exists, keep that in mind: it's the 4th-most populous state with or without 80% of it's land area.

Not as extreme as NYC for NY, but if you take out all of the counties that's part of the Chicago metro area out of Illinois and make it its own state, the population of the Illinois would drop to 4,081,820, and be the 28th most populous state between Oregon and Oklahoma, while Chicago would be the 11th most populous state with a population of 8,730,688, between New Jersey and Virginia.

[Scott5114]

I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.

I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU.  Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only.  She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that.  So she's no longer going to KU:  she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead.  Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.

Online education seems to be a disaster, and there is no guarantee things would be much better this year. Those who can actually learn online would be much better served with specially prepared edX and Coursera classes compared to makeshift ones most schools made in a hurry (guilty as charged myself).
Hot job market and possible change in tuition policies should also play a role.

And the thing is, there's no reason online education has to be a disaster. Teachers just don't have the skill set needed to produce engaging content, and try to compensate for that by enforcing rules that make sense in the classroom but not online (like getting onto someone for eating in class–it's disruptive if someone does it in real life, but if the kid's mic is muted and they're eating, if the teacher calls them out for it they're being the disruptive one, not the student).

[Daniel Fiddler]

I'll have to check out Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee to see how much they have grown, particularly their metropolitan areas.

According to the 2019 estimates (and I may count metropolitan areas differently than you by counties), the metropolitan areas over 2 million in those 3 states were approximately:

Miami:  6.2 million
Atlanta:  6.1 million
Tampa:  4.7 million
Orlando:  3.7 million
Nashville:  2.1 million

[kalvado]

I keep hearing about how college enrollment is way down now, even after the pandemic.

I know a young lady who was literally all packed up for college, ready to move from Wichita up to KU.  Then she found out all but one of her courses would be online only.  She had zero interest in living in a college dorm for a bunch of online classes, would rather just stay living at home for that.  So she's no longer going to KU:  she's staying home and going to community college for a while instead.  Last-minute change of plans, and such would have affected where she's counted for the census.

Online education seems to be a disaster, and there is no guarantee things would be much better this year. Those who can actually learn online would be much better served with specially prepared edX and Coursera classes compared to makeshift ones most schools made in a hurry (guilty as charged myself).
Hot job market and possible change in tuition policies should also play a role.

And the thing is, there's no reason online education has to be a disaster. Teachers just don't have the skill set needed to produce engaging content, and try to compensate for that by enforcing rules that make sense in the classroom but not online (like getting onto someone for eating in class–it's disruptive if someone does it in real life, but if the kid's mic is muted and they're eating, if the teacher calls them out for it they're being the disruptive one, not the student).

I'm afraid, student motivation is a huge part of online learning - and a lacking part, even for college students.
Eating is a part of the same story, they may not be disruptive per se - but definitely paying less than full attention (if any attention).