NFL (2024 Season)

[mgk920]

Hypothetical:

You just gained 10 yards because the other team received a penalty. However, you have the option to instead kick out the offending player for two minutes and be one man up. Would you take the 10 yards or the power play? Does it depend on whether you're on offense or defense?

I'd rather take a page out of the 'fútbol' rulebook and start issuing 'yellow' and 'red' cards to offending players with personal foul or unsportsmanlike conduct calls. The idea of potentially playing the rest of a game with 10 or fewer guys on the field would, IMHO, be a strong incentive to behave.

Mike

[thspfc]

Yeah I meant Patriots and Vikings; the latter which the Texans have never beaten yet;

There is no supernatural spell put on matchups between franchises. Houston is miles better than the Patriots and at least a bit better than the Vikings.

I think I'll be at that HOU/MIN game, so I'll probably get to see that first Texans win against the Vikes.

[CtrlAltDel]

Hypothetical:

You just gained 10 yards because the other team received a penalty. However, you have the option to instead kick out the offending player for two minutes and be one man up. Would you take the 10 yards or the power play? Does it depend on whether you're on offense or defense?

Wow, two minutes is an eternity in football.  Especially with all the clock stoppages.  You pretty much guarantee a score for the offense or forcing a punt for the defense.  Too severe a penalty for a game that starts and stops the way football does.

There are about 153 plays in an average NFL game. Assuming everything is evenly distributed, that works out to about 2.55 plays per minute of game time. So, two minutes out would be about 5 plays, which, at least as first glance, seems a reasonable amount.

[webny99]

The Chiefs famously had three plays in 13 seconds, so it's safe to say all plays are not distributed evenly, especially in end of half and end of game scenarios when clock management is a huge factor.

[CtrlAltDel]

The Chiefs famously had three plays in 13 seconds, so it's safe to say all plays are not distributed evenly, especially in end of half and end of game scenarios when clock management is a huge factor.

True, and that makes for a good reason not to commit a foul. Which is perhaps good since these crunch time moments often provide an impetus or two to see what you can get away with.

[jgb191]

Yeah I meant Patriots and Vikings; the latter which the Texans have never beaten yet;

There is no supernatural spell put on matchups between franchises. Houston is miles better than the Patriots and at least a bit better than the Vikings.

Though I agree with you about supernatural powers, I am a firm believer that cultural identity is the major factor in determining teams' success and so are many other sports fans.  The Texans are two wins and 11 losses against the NE; seven of those losses by double-digits, and the two wins vs NE were only by six points apiece.  I think a major reason for that is the way Robert Kraft instilled his culture "The Patriot Way" on his team, while the Texans have still yet to find an identity 22 years into their existence.  I am hoping this changes with DeMeco Ryans setting his own team culture to help turn our fortunes around.

-------------------------------------

Now that the schedule is out, I'll be the first on here to make a outlook for this season:
I predict the Texans will match last year's record of 10-7 or even 11-6 can be achievable.

Reasons for Concern:

-- Scheduling:  Last season we played the last-place teams from the 2022 season; while this season we play against four division champions.  Our opponents records' last year averaged 0.520 from 2022 or more accurately 0.559 from 2023.  This season, our opponents' 2023 records average 0.609, which is I believe one of the top three or four hardest schedules in the league.

-- Stiffer AFC competition:  I expect every AFC opponent to be very hard to beat this season.  Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson are all returning from injuries and could be better than ever.  Also the Steelers and Patriots have upgraded their QB, the Ravens added Derrick Henry, the Titans will get a full season out of Will Levis.  The list goes on and on....

-- Second-Year Slump:  Many players in the past have suffered this, and it is possible that the rookies from last year, Will Jr, CJ, Dell (even rookie HC DeMeco), could regress their performance due to pressures and expectations from the fans, the media, themselves.  I hope this doesn't happen though.

-- The Party's Over:  It's all gone, the Texans cannot surprise anybody anymore.  At the start of last season, no one took the Texans seriously (not even many within our fanbase), so they were able to catch our opponents off guard.  Not anymore!  After our surprising resurgence, every team – and I mean EVERY team will be charging hard at the Texans, giving us their best shot.  Teams now have tape on the Texans and will be studying them and be very well-prepared to throw everything at them.

-- Injuries:  Let's also not discount the possibility that this could also factor into our record.  Even though we have Tank Dell back this season, who knows if he or other players will go down for the season at any time.

Reasons for Optimism:

-- In Coach Ryans, we trust:  Our fanbase is a firm believer that our HC DeMeco Ryans is creating a culture and an identity that the franchise had never got to experience before to overcome our past failures, and he is doing it with positive reinforcements by complementing his players and avoiding the negativity.  Our players love playing for him, and so many more would jump at the chance to be coached by him.

-- Experience:  Speaking of our rookies last year, they performed masterfully in their first year, and now have a full season of experience under their belt and will hopefully avoid repeating the mistakes from last year.  They can use it as a stepping-stone to help the Texans reach greater heights never seen before (possible Super Bowl appearance in a few years).

-- Upgrades:  I'm a little iffy on Stefan Diggs as we don't know if we'll get his best or not depending on his attitude.  But I like the additions of Hunter on defense and Mixon on offense.  GM Nick Caserio seems to be pulling out all the stops on this season and going "All-In".

Having all this in mind, I am confident the Texans can match their record from last year, and I believe the Texans are very capable of one-upping their win to 11 wins, and once again reach the Divisional Round.  Anything more would be expecting way too much from them, but then again they did deliver more than anybody anticipated last year, who knows if they can do it again.

[epzik8]

the Texans have still yet to find an identity 22 years into their existence

For all intents and purposes, Houston's identity is C.J. Stroud.

[jgb191]

the Texans have still yet to find an identity 22 years into their existence

For all intents and purposes, Houston's identity is C.J. Stroud.

And your statement ironically brings up a new set of concerns for me:

--  It is debatable that JJ Watt had given the Texans an identity as he's been arguably the greatest player in franchise history past, present, and foreseeable future.

-- Can CJ's career really pan out over the next several years?  It remains to be seen if he'll be the newest victim of the "Sophomore Slump" syndrome.

-- Even IF his career turns out to be HOF worthy, can the Texans afford to keep him for his entire playing career?  He could potentially command one of the richest contracts in NFL history after his current introductory contract expires.  The Texans still have to pay Will Anderson Jr, Derek Jr, Tank Dell, Nico Collins etc -- all of whom are also critically important to the Texans.  How are the Texans going to balance the budget when the time comes?

-- Even if the Texans can keep all of them, what prevents CJ Stroud from going the path of Deshaun Watson and demand a trade out of Houston?  What people are saying about CJ, they've said about Deshaun years ago and look how that turned out.

-- Even if everything goes right for the Texans, the NFL is still owned by Patrick Mahomes until he retires, and if he can play until Tom Brady's age, he'll be collecting Vince Lombardi trophies until the year 2040.  By that time, CJ will be getting up there in age.

So many things to be worried about in the long-haul after the near-term excitement wears out.

Or am I needlessly paranoid about nothing?  If you're a Texans fan, you know better than to celebrate way too soon.

[epzik8]

the Texans have still yet to find an identity 22 years into their existence

For all intents and purposes, Houston's identity is C.J. Stroud.

And your statement ironically brings up a new set of concerns for me:

--  It is debatable that JJ Watt had given the Texans an identity as he's been arguably the greatest player in franchise history past, present, and foreseeable future.

-- Can CJ's career really pan out over the next several years?  It remains to be seen if he'll be the newest victim of the "Sophomore Slump" syndrome.

-- Even IF his career turns out to be HOF worthy, can the Texans afford to keep him for his entire playing career?  He could potentially command one of the richest contracts in NFL history after his current introductory contract expires.  The Texans still have to pay Will Anderson Jr, Derek Jr, Tank Dell, Nico Collins etc -- all of whom are also critically important to the Texans.  How are the Texans going to balance the budget when the time comes?

-- Even if the Texans can keep all of them, what prevents CJ Stroud from going the path of Deshaun Watson and demand a trade out of Houston?  What people are saying about CJ, they've said about Deshaun years ago and look how that turned out.

-- Even if everything goes right for the Texans, the NFL is still owned by Patrick Mahomes until he retires, and if he can play until Tom Brady's age, he'll be collecting Vince Lombardi trophies until the year 2040.  By that time, CJ will be getting up there in age.

So many things to be worried about in the long-haul after the near-term excitement wears out.

Or am I needlessly paranoid about nothing?  If you're a Texans fan, you know better than to celebrate way too soon.

You're not paranoid, I just need to stop posting under-educated comments online.

[SEWIGuy]

the Texans have still yet to find an identity 22 years into their existence

For all intents and purposes, Houston's identity is C.J. Stroud.

And your statement ironically brings up a new set of concerns for me:

--  It is debatable that JJ Watt had given the Texans an identity as he's been arguably the greatest player in franchise history past, present, and foreseeable future.

-- Can CJ's career really pan out over the next several years?  It remains to be seen if he'll be the newest victim of the "Sophomore Slump" syndrome.

-- Even IF his career turns out to be HOF worthy, can the Texans afford to keep him for his entire playing career?  He could potentially command one of the richest contracts in NFL history after his current introductory contract expires.  The Texans still have to pay Will Anderson Jr, Derek Jr, Tank Dell, Nico Collins etc -- all of whom are also critically important to the Texans.  How are the Texans going to balance the budget when the time comes?

-- Even if the Texans can keep all of them, what prevents CJ Stroud from going the path of Deshaun Watson and demand a trade out of Houston?  What people are saying about CJ, they've said about Deshaun years ago and look how that turned out.

-- Even if everything goes right for the Texans, the NFL is still owned by Patrick Mahomes until he retires, and if he can play until Tom Brady's age, he'll be collecting Vince Lombardi trophies until the year 2040.  By that time, CJ will be getting up there in age.

So many things to be worried about in the long-haul after the near-term excitement wears out.

Or am I needlessly paranoid about nothing?  If you're a Texans fan, you know better than to celebrate way too soon.

There were obviously a lot of unique circumstances that surrounded Watson that hopefully won't matter with Stroud.

Regarding his contract, always, always, always take care of a star quarterback. Good organizations will find young and cheap talent to surround them while hanging on to key veterans here and there. And you sign them early, unlike Dallas who is really screwing up the Dak contract situation.

And I will say that the identity issue will be taken care of when they actually win something important. And if your top player in franchise history is a defensive end, that's probably not a good sign.

Above all, the most important thing Texans can hope for is that Cal McNair runs the organization better than his dad did. They have a good thing going now - he can't screw that up.

[jgb191]

Regarding his contract, always, always, always take care of a star quarterback. Good organizations will find young and cheap talent to surround them while hanging on to key veterans here and there. And you sign them early, unlike Dallas who is really screwing up the Dak contract situation.

And I will say that the identity issue will be taken care of when they actually win something important. And if your top player in franchise history is a defensive end, that's probably not a good sign.

Above all, the most important thing Texans can hope for is that Cal McNair runs the organization better than his dad did. They have a good thing going now - he can't screw that up.

I don't think the McNairs are bad owners but they made two major errors:  1.  Firing Gary Kubiak, a Houston native (out of impulse), and 2.  Replacing Gary with Bill 0'Brien.  Gary turned out to be by far the better coach than Bill.  Bill 0'Brien was a lousy Head Coach and an even worse General Manager.  Thankfully Cal finally came to his senses by firing Bill and stopping the bleeding, but by then the Texans were on life-support.  But Cal redeemed the McNair's ownership in a tremendous way getting DeMeco Ryans which breathed a new life into the organization and especially the fanbase.

As far as the QB situation, a QB is only as good as his offense (O-line, WRs, RBs, and TEs), so we need to also keep these other players that are reinforcing the QB performance.  And the right HC/OC would also enhance the QB's performance.  I speculate that I don't believe CJ would be doing nearly that well had the Panthers brought him to Charlotte, or any other coaching system for that matter (except Andy Reid).

[jgb191]

Regarding his contract, always, always, always take care of a star quarterback. Good organizations will find young and cheap talent to surround them while hanging on to key veterans here and there. And you sign them early, unlike Dallas who is really screwing up the Dak contract situation.

And I will say that the identity issue will be taken care of when they actually win something important. And if your top player in franchise history is a defensive end, that's probably not a good sign.

And also according to these, about half of each team's best player in team history are defensive players.  So I feel better now knowing that the Texans aren't the only franchise in that department.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl-100/2019/09/05/usa-today-sports-network-100-best-nfl-players-patriots-steelers-cowboys-niners/1985602001/

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/the_best_player_for_each_of_the_32_nfl_franchises/s1__32729366

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1697069-the-most-dominant-player-in-every-nfl-teams-history

https://www.nfl.com/news/best-player-in-team-history-afc-edition-ray-lewis-among-picks-0ap2000000353899

[thspfc]

"Sophomore Slump"

Of course sophomore slumps can happen, but do they actually happen at a higher rate than junior, senior, or beyond slumps? Nah. For actual sophomore slumps, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Leonard Fournette, and Chase Young are the only names that really come to mind for me. Young was less of a sophomore slump and more of an insane rookie season for a player who's actually not that good. Oftentimes people mindlessly get high on rookie hype trains, so when the player's second season is just a repeat of their first season rather than some insane improvement, it's a "slump".

-- Even IF his career turns out to be HOF worthy, can the Texans afford to keep him for his entire playing career?  He could potentially command one of the richest contracts in NFL history after his current introductory contract expires.  The Texans still have to pay Will Anderson Jr, Derek Jr, Tank Dell, Nico Collins etc -- all of whom are also critically important to the Texans.  How are the Texans going to balance the budget when the time comes?

They will pay Stroud and figure out the rest. They just signed Collins a year early to a below market value contract, which is smart as opposed to waiting for him to demand $30m/year next offseason.

Speaking of the WR market - it's becoming very inflated and we're going to see the prices drop over the next five years or so. What continues to drive QB prices up is scarcity of franchise QBs and the value above replacement that they provide. But now it seems like every single year there's a handful of no. 1 WRs getting drafted. When everybody at the position is worth $30m/year, nobody is.

-- Even if the Texans can keep all of them, what prevents CJ Stroud from going the path of Deshaun Watson and demand a trade out of Houston?  What people are saying about CJ, they've said about Deshaun years ago and look how that turned out.

Most likely not being a clown (or, you know, a sexual predator). The massage news (rightfully) overshadowed how childish Watson's feud with the Texans really was. Who knows, maybe he will repeat Watson's career bar for bar, but it's highly unlikely.

-- Even if everything goes right for the Texans, the NFL is still owned by Patrick Mahomes until he retires, and if he can play until Tom Brady's age, he'll be collecting Vince Lombardi trophies until the year 2040.  By that time, CJ will be getting up there in age.

I agree. It's been so funny to see people act like Stroud is about to win multiple championships with the Texans while also complaining about how guys like Allen and Burrow, that have been around longer, will never win because Mahomes owns the conference. It's only when the shine wears off that people realize young QBs don't have a bottomless pit of time to win championships. Exhibit A, Josh Allen. Broke out with a massive season in 2020 and made it to the AFC title game in his first year as a star QB. "Oh, he'll be back! He has so much time! House money!" Hasn't been back since. His prime is statistically half over. The rest of his team has been slowly aging and leaving due to cap issues and is now in a quasi-rebuild.