NFL (2020-2024)

Started by webny99, February 04, 2020, 02:35:53 PM

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JayhawkCO

Quote from: DenverBrian on December 03, 2024, 08:06:12 AM
Quote from: Great Lakes Roads on December 03, 2024, 12:42:27 AMWith the Broncos win against the Browns, the Jags are eliminated from the playoffs.
And all y'all who forked the Broncos early are rightfully eating crow.


I was one. I'll happily bet any amount that you like that they lose in the first round of the playoffs should they get there.


webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on December 03, 2024, 08:32:40 AM
Quote
QuoteWith the Broncos win against the Browns, the Jags are eliminated from the playoffs.
And all y'all who forked the Broncos early are rightfully eating crow.

I was one. I'll happily bet any amount that you like that they lose in the first round of the playoffs should they get there.

I'd say that is dependent on seeding, as I could see them beating the Texans or the Steelers. And hey, I wouldn't entirely rule out them beating the Chiefs either, given that the last 8 straight Broncos-Chiefs games have all been highly competitive.

jgb191

#6452
I want to say that the Broncos defense can even give Josh Allen all that he and his Bill offense can handle.

------------------------------------

In another piece of news:  Al-Shaair has been suspended effectively the rest of this regular season; the earliest he can play is next month (assuming the Texans hold on and clinch a playoff seed).
 
https://www.nfl.com/news/texans-olb-azeez-al-shaair-suspended-three-games-for-illegal-hit-on-trevor-lawrence
We're so far south that we're not even considered "The South"

JayhawkCO

Quote from: webny99 on December 03, 2024, 09:32:15 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on December 03, 2024, 08:32:40 AM
Quote
QuoteWith the Broncos win against the Browns, the Jags are eliminated from the playoffs.
And all y'all who forked the Broncos early are rightfully eating crow.

I was one. I'll happily bet any amount that you like that they lose in the first round of the playoffs should they get there.

I'd say that is dependent on seeding, as I could see them beating the Texans or the Steelers. And hey, I wouldn't entirely rule out them beating the Chiefs either, given that the last 8 straight Broncos-Chiefs games have all been highly competitive.

I'll put my money where my mouth is if you're interested. :)

webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on December 03, 2024, 01:22:30 PM
Quote from: webny99 on December 03, 2024, 09:32:15 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on December 03, 2024, 08:32:40 AM
Quote
QuoteWith the Broncos win against the Browns, the Jags are eliminated from the playoffs.
And all y'all who forked the Broncos early are rightfully eating crow.

I was one. I'll happily bet any amount that you like that they lose in the first round of the playoffs should they get there.

I'd say that is dependent on seeding, as I could see them beating the Texans or the Steelers. And hey, I wouldn't entirely rule out them beating the Chiefs either, given that the last 8 straight Broncos-Chiefs games have all been highly competitive.

I'll put my money where my mouth is if you're interested. :)

Definitely not yet at least, we'll see if they get there and who they play first.  :sombrero:

mgk920

Quote from: Big John on December 02, 2024, 10:59:53 PM
Quote from: mgk920 on December 02, 2024, 10:37:39 PMWho is currently on the clock for first pick in the draft?

Mike
Jaguars hold the tiebreaker at 2-10.

Thanx!

I still remember a year ago when it is posited by some that the Bears might have ended the 2023 season with the first two picks in the 2024 draft.

Mike

SEWIGuy

Quote from: jgb191 on December 03, 2024, 12:45:00 PMI want to say that the Broncos defense can even give Josh Allen all that he and his Bill offense can handle.

The Browns just scored 32 on them. I think the Bills, if they are playing at home, can be beat by two teams - the Chiefs and the Steelers.  It's always possible I guess, but I don't see Denver being much of a problem for them.

jgb191

The Browns have a very talented roster even without Deshaun, it's mystifying why they only have three wins?  They beat the Ravens and Steelers, but the Browns have underperformed overall this year.
We're so far south that we're not even considered "The South"

SEWIGuy

Easy. They let Deshaun Watson play quarterback.

JayhawkCO

Their skill position players are a bit lacking even outside of Watson. Chubb is getting older and coming off injury. They traded away Amari Cooper, but even before that, the rest of the WR corps is below average.

epzik8

I have a feeling the Diontae Johnson saga is only just beginning
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Roadgeekteen

If Jerry Judy performs like he did vs the Broncos every week the Browns might be good going forward
My username has been outdated since August 2023 but I'm too lazy to change it

SEWIGuy

Quote from: epzik8 on December 04, 2024, 08:45:54 PMI have a feeling the Diontae Johnson saga is only just beginning

Then they'll cut him and move on.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: SEWIGuy on December 05, 2024, 09:04:12 AM
Quote from: epzik8 on December 04, 2024, 08:45:54 PMI have a feeling the Diontae Johnson saga is only just beginning

Then they'll cut him and move on.

Yeah. Sounds like another former Steelers WR gone crazy.

gonealookin

I would say about 98% of coaches in the history of the NFL would have looked at 4th and 1 at the opponent's 21 yard line, in a tie game with 43 seconds left, and kicked the field goal.

The other 2% knew they were about to be fired and had nothing to lose anyway.

Ballsy decision by Dan Campbell there, but oh boy if the Lions don't get the first down and Green Bay goes down the field and wins with a field goal of their own...

Max Rockatansky

Quote from: gonealookin on December 05, 2024, 11:38:13 PMI would say about 98% of coaches in the history of the NFL would have looked at 4th and 1 at the opponent's 21 yard line, in a tie game with 43 seconds left, and kicked the field goal.

The other 2% knew they were about to be fired and had nothing to lose anyway.

Ballsy decision by Dan Campbell there, but oh boy if the Lions don't get the first down and Green Bay goes down the field and wins with a field goal of their own...

Ballsy but he's been burned by stuff like that before.  Obviously I'm happy with the result.

Roadgeekteen

Man do I love MCDC and I'm not a Lions fan
My username has been outdated since August 2023 but I'm too lazy to change it

thspfc

#6467
Quote from: gonealookin on December 05, 2024, 11:38:13 PMI would say about 98% of coaches in the history of the NFL would have looked at 4th and 1 at the opponent's 21 yard line, in a tie game with 43 seconds left, and kicked the field goal.
Maybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game. The conversion rate of going for it was definitely higher than the conversion rate of a 39-yard field goal.

I wouldn't consider myself an unequivocal analytics truther, but honestly, 4th and 1 from the plus side of the 50 with at least 20-30 seconds remaining should always be a go, unless your interior offensive line is in shambles.

Antonio Pierce would've kicked but he's one of the most incompetent head coaches of the last 10 years.

Have to mention, not a peep out of anybody in the world about how the Lions are 6-1 in those mythical one score games this season. When it's them nobody calls it luck. Interesting.

SEWIGuy

Quote from: thspfc on December 06, 2024, 08:56:39 AMMaybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game.

I don't think it was obvious at all. A 39 yard FG is a chip shot and Green Bay had been doing a good job at stopping them on 3rd and 4th and short all night. It was a risky move, but it worked out for them.

NWI_Irish96

The Lions surge is not surprising. They built their offense the right way. They got their offensive line in place before filling it out with the skill players. Two reasons why this is the right way. One is that OL have a longer shelf life. The other is that it's easier to evaluate your skill players when they're playing behind a good OL. If your QB has rushers in his face within 2 seconds of the snap, and the RB is getting hit before he even gets to the line of scrimmage, you don't have a lot of info on how good those guys are.

The Bears have taken the opposite approach, loading up their skill position players while ignoring their OL, and it's showing.
Indiana: counties 100%, highways 100%
Illinois: counties 100%, highways 61%
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Wisconsin: counties 86%, highways 23%

webny99

Quote from: SEWIGuy on December 06, 2024, 09:37:24 AM
Quote from: thspfc on December 06, 2024, 08:56:39 AMMaybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game.

I don't think it was obvious at all. A 39 yard FG is a chip shot and Green Bay had been doing a good job at stopping them on 3rd and 4th and short all night. It was a risky move, but it worked out for them.

I wouldn't call the Lions going 4 of 5 on 4th down a good job by the Packers.

The reason it wasn't really that risky (besides the extremely short distance), is that they still would have had to keep the Packers out of field goal range even if they made the field goal. The downside of failing on the 4th down is the same downside as missing the field goal, but the upside is much higher.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: thspfc on December 06, 2024, 08:56:39 AM
Quote from: gonealookin on December 05, 2024, 11:38:13 PMI would say about 98% of coaches in the history of the NFL would have looked at 4th and 1 at the opponent's 21 yard line, in a tie game with 43 seconds left, and kicked the field goal.
Maybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game. The conversion rate of going for it was definitely higher than the conversion rate of a 39-yard field goal.

I'm probably more of an analytics truther than you are, but I have to disagree with your last sentence. NFL kickers this year on FGs from 30-39 yards are 94.5%. From 40-49, they're 75.7%, so right at 39 yards, it's probably something like 88%. 4th and 1 success rates average about 60% in today's NFL per https://medium.com/@dacr444/analyzing-4th-down-attempts-over-the-last-24-seasons-8c0f99c538cb.

webny99

Quote from: thspfc on December 06, 2024, 08:56:39 AMHave to mention, not a peep out of anybody in the world about how the Lions are 6-1 in those mythical one score games this season. When it's them nobody calls it luck. Interesting.

OK, they've also beaten 3 NFL teams by 38+ points this season. They got lucky against the Bears, but there's no need to bring up luck when it's obvious that they're a very good team with an obvious coaching advantage. The Steelers have an absurd record in one-score games for basically Tomlin's entire career and no one calls that luck either.

webny99

Quote from: JayhawkCO on December 06, 2024, 10:34:15 AM
QuoteMaybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game. The conversion rate of going for it was definitely higher than the conversion rate of a 39-yard field goal.

I'm probably more of an analytics truther than you are, but I have to disagree with your last sentence. NFL kickers this year on FGs from 30-39 yards are 94.5%. From 40-49, they're 75.7%, so right at 39 yards, it's probably something like 88%. 4th and 1 success rates average about 60% in today's NFL per https://medium.com/@dacr444/analyzing-4th-down-attempts-over-the-last-24-seasons-8c0f99c538cb.

It wasn't 88%, but probably closer to 70-75% considering the context of Detroit's offense, offensive scheme and coaching advantage, and the fact that it was shorter distance than your typical 4th & 1.

JayhawkCO

Quote from: webny99 on December 06, 2024, 10:40:58 AM
Quote from: JayhawkCO on December 06, 2024, 10:34:15 AM
QuoteMaybe 98% in the history of the NFL, but certainly not 98% of active coaches. Going for it was the pretty obvious choice. It was 4th and inches, not 4th and 1. DET has an elite o-line and run game. The conversion rate of going for it was definitely higher than the conversion rate of a 39-yard field goal.

I'm probably more of an analytics truther than you are, but I have to disagree with your last sentence. NFL kickers this year on FGs from 30-39 yards are 94.5%. From 40-49, they're 75.7%, so right at 39 yards, it's probably something like 88%. 4th and 1 success rates average about 60% in today's NFL per https://medium.com/@dacr444/analyzing-4th-down-attempts-over-the-last-24-seasons-8c0f99c538cb.

It wasn't 88%, but probably closer to 70-75% considering the context of Detroit's offense, offensive scheme and coaching advantage, and the fact that it was shorter distance than your typical 4th & 1.


And again, I'm an analytics nerd, so if the numbers say to go for it, I'm going for it. Kicking a FG to go up 6 is a fool's errand most of the time, so I definitely agree with going for it here. I was just pointing out that I disagree with an aspect of that analysis.

The reason to go for it isn't because it's more likely that you convert the 1st down than the FG. The reason to go for it is:

60% success going for it = 100% chance of victory
40% failure going for it = 70% chance of victory
88% success kicking the FG = 85% chance of victory
12% failure kikcing the FG = 67% chance of victory

(Ballparking the numbers a little bit on the chance of victory.)

(.6 * 1) + (.4 * .7) = 88% chance of winning if you go for it
(.88 * .85) + (.12 * .67) = 83% chance of winning if you attempt a FG



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