Cities/states that will grow/shrink the fastest post-COVID

[Bobby5280]

Just to respond to the original topic question: I don't think we're far enough along in this SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to know how things are going to shake out once this nightmare is finally behind us. There are more consequences coming that haven't been made real yet. Vaccines should be widely available by Summer 2021, but more than 40% of Americans are saying they won't get vaccinated. If that holds true we'll be dealing with SARS-CoV-2 well into 2022.

Some things I do feel comfortable predicting: most small towns across the US will continue to wither, especially rural towns not reasonably close to a major urban center. They're stuck in a negative feedback loop. Very few small towns have any capability to attract new residents that are young, working-age adults. Very few of these small towns do well at retaining young people who grow up there. It takes good paying jobs to retain working age adults of child-bearing age. Public schools are vital to working families. A small town can lose its police and fire departments, but if its local school closes that pretty much means death to that town. Quality of Internet access (speed and bandwidth) is vital. Too many small towns lack the data pipes needed for good broadband use, either for work or entertainment. Many of these rural towns are in areas where it may be difficult to pick up off-air broadcast TV channels. Satellite TV has turned into a joke for all the carrier disputes cutting out national networks and local channels.

SARS-CoV-2 exposed one of the biggest disadvantages of small towns: lack of quality health care. Combine that with a small town's generally very old population and it works out as a terrible combination. We have COVID-19 patients from rural towns dying in hospitals here in Lawton or up in Oklahoma City. Those small towns had no capacity to treat such patients. There are many elderly people dying isolated in their homes due to lack of treatment. I think this will affect future population migration patterns for elderly people. But that has to be tempered against the other fact that housing costs are monumentally cheaper in small towns versus medium to large cities. Elderly people who can afford to move will probably do so.

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Side note about New York: I lived in New York City for 5 years (went to college there) and lived in Syracuse for a couple years when I was a kid. Upstate New York seems as different from New York City as the difference between Boston or El Paso. Summer time is absolutely beautiful in the Finger Lakes region. But you pay for it with the brutal winters. I would not want to move back to Syracuse. All that lake effect snow kind of ruined my enthusiasm for snow for life. If real estate prices are suddenly shooting up there and in Rochester or other cities up there I don't understand it.

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Telework - this will probably grow more popular, but with an added side-effect. I think more employees are going to be classified as salary/exempt from OT. Their jobs will be following them everywhere, be it at the home office or on their mobile devices. I still prefer working at an office; I think it's more efficient and there are certain advantages to being able to speak to team members in person.

Tele-education = I think the growth there will be in vocational-technology training. Traditional 4-year universities kind of depend on in-person classes and other amenities to justify the really high tuition prices. Virtual learning isn't so popular in grade K-12 education. It's just not practical on so many fronts. The biggest problem is so many working families have both parents working full time to make ends meet. And then single parents face even worse problems. One of the functions of public school is serving as a baby sitter for the kids of working age adults. Now, one change would could start seeing soon is enrollment levels at schools dropping due to more and more young adults choosing not to have children. The total fertility rate in the US is dropping farther due to all kinds of factors (extreme health care costs, extreme costs of day care, high housing costs, etc). It's a hell of a lot cheaper to stay single with no kids or if you do get married just don't have any kids.

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I feel like Oklahoma's cities could see population booms in the future. The cost of living is much lower relatively speaking compared to urban centers in Texas or the high cost zones on the East and West coasts. Utilities costs are not outrageous and most areas have decent supplies of water. But the powers that be in this state seem to be doing their best to prevent real growth from happening. The crisis in public education, with teachers leaving the state in droves, is just one of multiple factors that will keep us under-performing.

[hbelkins]

I also hear a lot of people say they're looking into relocating to Tennessee or Florida.

I live in the Nashville area and I can attest that people are continuing to move here in droves. I am renting two rooms right now to people who moved here from California this year.

Post-pandemic, I believe the Nashville/Middle Tennessee area in particular will experience an even bigger boom than what we saw in the 2010s. It wouldn't surprise me if we added another 1,000,000 residents in the metro area in the next 15-20 years.

There's a lot of envy among some Kentucky residents and officials because Tennessee has no income tax. But I detest the sales taxes there, and have no idea what property taxes or other excise taxes (utilities, etc.) are in the Volunteer State. I much prefer a flat income tax to sales taxes or property taxes. Unfortunately, Kentucky has all three.

There's also a lot of envy among Kentuckians right now because the level of business restrictions in Tennessee has been consistently lower since the spring. You can't eat in a restaurant in Kentucky right now, so a whole lot of people are traveling across the state line now.

[The Nature Boy]

I also hear a lot of people say they're looking into relocating to Tennessee or Florida.

I live in the Nashville area and I can attest that people are continuing to move here in droves. I am renting two rooms right now to people who moved here from California this year.

Post-pandemic, I believe the Nashville/Middle Tennessee area in particular will experience an even bigger boom than what we saw in the 2010s. It wouldn't surprise me if we added another 1,000,000 residents in the metro area in the next 15-20 years.

I ask this out of genuine curiosity and not disrespect:

But what is it about Nashville that is drawing people right now? It seems to frequently get mentioned as a millennial hotspot and people are flocking there. What happened that suddenly made Nashville hip? I've been there, it's a fun city and I enjoyed my time there but it doesn't strike me as a "I must move there" destination.

[US 89]

St. George, UT, Boise, ID and Reno, NV all spring to mind with this.

St. George is continuing to boom -- Washington County population rose by 4.06% in 2020 alone, the most of any county in Utah -- traffic continues to get worse, new subdivisions spring into life seemingly overnight, and rents continue to soar.

Without delving too far into politics, I strongly suspect the pandemic isn't the only reason there are so many more California plates here these days. The 2020 election results confirmed that, rather than making southern Utah slightly more "purple," the influx of new residents only strengthened the stranglehold that one political party has on the region.

And since Washington County now also leads the state in the highest per-capita rate of new infections (roughly 5x to 6x worse than in the SF Bay Area), it's not like people are moving here to escape the virus. There are ... and we'll put this as delicately as possible ... other reasons.

Oddly, the opposite political result has happened in the Salt Lake City area, where the city proper is now "solid blue" and the county as a whole has shifted to purple-light blue territory. I can see something similar happening to Boise in the near future as well - it seems just like a 20-years-behind version of Salt Lake.

I also did not realize Washington County was worse covid-wise than Utah County (where most Wasatch Front residents assume the worst of it is). Assuming nobody wears masks down there - I know the sheriff of neighboring Iron County refuses to enforce the statewide mask mandate, and based on what I saw over the summer that seems to be the common sentiment in that part of the state.

But back on topic: it amazes me how fast St George grows. I find myself there once every few years or so, and every single time I'm there I am shocked at how much bigger it is. Hell, it's going to have three freeways in the relatively near future (I-15, SR 7, SR 9). Metro population of 175k is not small. At this point it deserves Interstate control city status as far as I'm concerned...and a fully six-laned I-15 all the way from SR 7 to 9.

[webny99]

Without delving too far into politics, I strongly suspect the pandemic isn't the only reason there are so many more California plates here these days. The 2020 election results confirmed that, rather than making southern Utah slightly more "purple," the influx of new residents only strengthened the stranglehold that one political party has on the region.
...

Oddly, the opposite political result has happened in the Salt Lake City area, where the city proper is now "solid blue" and the county as a whole has shifted to purple-light blue territory. I can see something similar happening to Boise in the near future as well - it seems just like a 20-years-behind version of Salt Lake.

Again treading carefully here, but when you look at what's happening in the surrounding states, it's only reasonable to expect Utah as a whole to become more competitive. If you throw out the 2016 data point as an aberration because of McMullin, Utah's shift from R+48 in 2012 to R+20.5 this year is by far the largest shift of any state.

2016 and 2020 are now the only elections since the 1970's in which Utah hasn't been among the three reddest states in the nation, and it's been the reddest state for the majority of those cycles. It ended up 11th this year, between Nebraska and Tennessee.

[bing101]

This is exacerbated when schools choose to conduct their education over proprietary software like Zoom instead of open protocols that allow users to choose the software that works best with their existing hardware.

Zoom works perfectly fine on a Mac with no issues. Does it not work on Linux?

Zoom works well on Linux IE Ubuntu OS / Mint OS does well too and Chrome OS.

[hotdogPi]

Without delving too far into politics, I strongly suspect the pandemic isn't the only reason there are so many more California plates here these days. The 2020 election results confirmed that, rather than making southern Utah slightly more "purple," the influx of new residents only strengthened the stranglehold that one political party has on the region.
...

Oddly, the opposite political result has happened in the Salt Lake City area, where the city proper is now "solid blue" and the county as a whole has shifted to purple-light blue territory. I can see something similar happening to Boise in the near future as well - it seems just like a 20-years-behind version of Salt Lake.

Again treading carefully here, but when you look at what's happening in the surrounding states, it's only reasonable to expect Utah as a whole to become more competitive. If you throw out the 2016 data point as an aberration because of McMullin, Utah's shift from R+48 in 2012 to R+20.5 this year is by far the largest shift of any state.

2016 and 2020 are now the only elections since the 1970's in which Utah hasn't been among the three reddest states in the nation, and it's been the reddest state for the majority of those cycles. It ended up 11th this year, between Nebraska and Tennessee.

Utah was redder than usual in 2012 because Mitt Romney was a Mormon, basically the equivalent of a home state effect.

[webny99]

Utah was redder than usual in 2012 because Mitt Romney was a Mormon, basically the equivalent of a home state effect.

That's a good point. Maybe a a better way to look at it is the average of 2000, '04, '08, and '12, which is R+40.5.

[Bruce]

I just realized that the closure of large employment hubs may have a larger impact than I was originally considering.

Question as a follow-up to this thought:  Can anyone think of a large corporation that's ended up shutting down a large employment center somewhere–one large enough to measurably affect the population of the city due to egress?

Maybe not large enough for the area, but Boeing is shutting down 787 assembly line in WA. There are other reasons for that, notably union tensions, but the other 787 assembly line in SC will trickle out planes in forceeable future as demand dropped to almost nothing.

(And also airlines specifically do not want 787s from the Charleston plant because they aren't at the same quality and often need to be sent back to Everett anyway to be fixed)

[kalvado]

I just realized that the closure of large employment hubs may have a larger impact than I was originally considering.

Question as a follow-up to this thought:  Can anyone think of a large corporation that's ended up shutting down a large employment center somewhere–one large enough to measurably affect the population of the city due to egress?

Maybe not large enough for the area, but Boeing is shutting down 787 assembly line in WA. There are other reasons for that, notably union tensions, but the other 787 assembly line in SC will trickle out planes in forceeable future as demand dropped to almost nothing.

(And also airlines specifically do not want 787s from the Charleston plant because they aren't at the same quality and often need to be sent back to Everett anyway to be fixed)

That was one specific airline making a story of it. While we're at it, quality is declining for Boeing across the board, to the point USAF refused acceptance of some Everett-built 767 shortly before COVID.

[I-39]

I also hear a lot of people say they're looking into relocating to Tennessee or Florida.

I live in the Nashville area and I can attest that people are continuing to move here in droves. I am renting two rooms right now to people who moved here from California this year.

Post-pandemic, I believe the Nashville/Middle Tennessee area in particular will experience an even bigger boom than what we saw in the 2010s. It wouldn't surprise me if we added another 1,000,000 residents in the metro area in the next 15-20 years.

I ask this out of genuine curiosity and not disrespect:

But what is it about Nashville that is drawing people right now? It seems to frequently get mentioned as a millennial hotspot and people are flocking there. What happened that suddenly made Nashville hip? I've been there, it's a fun city and I enjoyed my time there but it doesn't strike me as a "I must move there" destination.

Mainly, the music and business scene, along with no state income tax and a relative low cost of living compared to elsewhere.

Mind you, I'm not talking about just the city itself, it's the surrounding suburbs as well. In addition to downtown, the I-65 corridor between Brentwood and Spring Hill is becoming an attractive edge city in of itself. Hidden gem if you ask me.

[vsaharan]

I have a theory that the worst impacted cities from Covid are San Francisco and New York. A lot of these companies have decided to go full-time from home, and I've noticed a handful of my Big Tech/Wall St friends moving out to states like CO, WY, and MT to work remotely. I believe that it might be cheaper for these companies to continue this model of remoteness even once things go back to normal, which begs the question...why would they move back to these expensive cities then? These cities definitely take the loss when they lose consistent taxpayers like these.

I'm not sure if my theory makes sense or is just inane. I feel like it depends on whether or not these companies decide being remote is worth it in the long run.

[bing101]

University towns have been some of the fastest growing places in America for the past 40 years, but now everyone knows universities are a joke, so I don't think those will keep growing.

I could see places like Berkeley, and Stanford become alternate financial, and Venture capitalist centers for San Jose and San Francisco. For Davis, CA I could see alternate west coast branches of lobbying and superpac offices to Downtown Sacramento in a post pandemic era.   

[Bobby5280]

I have a theory that the worst impacted cities from Covid are San Francisco and New York. A lot of these companies have decided to go full-time from home, and I've noticed a handful of my Big Tech/Wall St friends moving out to states like CO, WY, and MT to work remotely.

The SF Bay Area and Greater NYC markets have been walking out onto thin ice for years. Prior to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak they were already shedding lots of American-born residents due to the absolutely absurd living costs. Many young adults in these metros face a tough choice: keep living with mom and dad or move completely out of those regions in order to move out of the parents' house. Immigration has made up for some of that imbalance, but it's not a sustainable situation. How does someone doing service jobs like flipping burgers or stocking grocery store shelves afford surviving there? Selling drugs as side job?

Earlier today I read that Oracle is officially relocating its headquarters from California to the Austin, TX area. Elon Musk says he is leaving California for Texas due to California's taxes and other regulations. IIRC, Musk is building Tesla's next "Gigafactory" near Austin. Tesla's HQ operations may move there.

NYC and the Bay Area are not the only cities where living costs have grown insane. Housing costs in Austin are getting pretty ridiculous, thanks in part to so many people from California moving there. There aren't many housing bargains in cities along the Front Range in Colorado.