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Author Topic: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot  (Read 4686 times)

abefroman329

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #50 on: June 14, 2018, 12:13:45 PM »

Regarding Congress, what people are forgetting is that the House is very likely to flip to the Democrats in this year’s election. The Senate is probably a coin flip at this point. So in 2019, any voter-approved split in CA would have a more friendly reception on Capitol Hill. (Of course, Trump could veto it and there’s no chance Congress has the votes to override.)

Statehood for DC has been no more or less popular when one party or the other controls Congress and the White House, I think the same would be the case for splitting California into 3 states.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #51 on: June 14, 2018, 12:40:20 PM »

I do think if California succeeds in splitting, the push begins immediately for Texas to do the same to balance the ledger. The winner in the end might actually be New York State, which would reclaim its top population status. (At least until Florida catches it.)
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #52 on: June 14, 2018, 12:46:01 PM »

I do think if California succeeds in splitting, the push begins immediately for Texas to do the same to balance the ledger. The winner in the end might actually be New York State, which would reclaim its top population status. (At least until Florida catches it.)

Florida has already caught it.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #53 on: June 14, 2018, 01:22:41 PM »

(this is an extremely rare double post from me)

What would be the new postal codes? NC and SC already exist. Maybe NO, SO, and CA?
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Stephane Dumas

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #54 on: June 14, 2018, 10:02:26 PM »

(this is an extremely rare double post from me)

What would be the new postal codes? NC and SC already exist. Maybe NO, SO, and CA?

One of the new states could wear the name Jefferson or Lincoln or Cascadia. JN, LN and CS could be use.
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oscar

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #55 on: June 14, 2018, 10:20:42 PM »

Regarding Congress, what people are forgetting is that the House is very likely to flip to the Democrats in this year’s election. The Senate is probably a coin flip at this point. So in 2019, any voter-approved split in CA would have a more friendly reception on Capitol Hill. (Of course, Trump could veto it and there’s no chance Congress has the votes to override.)

Good question whether Congressional approval of a new state is subject to a Presidential veto. But it might be subject to a Senate filibuster, depending on what the Senate's rules look like next year.

As for getting voter approval, this is starting to look like the failed six-state initiative. Enough issues, especially where borders would slice through regions (like the Los Angeles metro area, and the Monterey area), to say nothing of critical water rights issues, to provoke second and third thoughts, and lose votes.
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Beltway

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #56 on: June 14, 2018, 11:54:21 PM »

Will NY ever break up?  Considering that the NYC metro area and Long Island control Albany I am sure those in the Adirondack Region as well as western NY State are pissed that they have no say in what gets done in the state capital.
Remember only 40 percent of the state's 19 million are outside of the NYC area and I am sure some on the right are complaining when Cuomo wins a gubnotorial election or the fact that they are paying statewide to keep the buses and the trains running within the five boroughs with part of their paychecks.  Only a few examples but I am sure being the 40 under the 60 does have some concerns on any issue thought up by SE New Yorkers I would think.

6 counties out of the 53 control the state government.  I have friends in western NY state and their area opposes much of what comes from that governance.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #57 on: June 14, 2018, 11:58:14 PM »

I do think if California succeeds in splitting, the push begins immediately for Texas to do the same to balance the ledger. The winner in the end might actually be New York State, which would reclaim its top population status. (At least until Florida catches it.)

Florida has already caught it.

Not only that, it has surpassed NY by about million if I recall the latest census figures correctly.

Rothman

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #58 on: June 15, 2018, 12:03:17 AM »

Will NY ever break up?  Considering that the NYC metro area and Long Island control Albany I am sure those in the Adirondack Region as well as western NY State are pissed that they have no say in what gets done in the state capital.
Remember only 40 percent of the state's 19 million are outside of the NYC area and I am sure some on the right are complaining when Cuomo wins a gubnotorial election or the fact that they are paying statewide to keep the buses and the trains running within the five boroughs with part of their paychecks.  Only a few examples but I am sure being the 40 under the 60 does have some concerns on any issue thought up by SE New Yorkers I would think.

6 counties out of the 53 control the state government.  I have friends in western NY state and their area opposes much of what comes from that governance.
Yep, the majority of the population has a majority of representation.  Imagine that.
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Scott5114

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #59 on: June 15, 2018, 12:33:11 AM »

(this is an extremely rare double post from me)

What would be the new postal codes? NC and SC already exist. Maybe NO, SO, and CA?

There's a lot of precedent to use the last letter of state names for some reason (VA, PA, etc.). NA, SA, CA would work.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 04:02:39 AM by Scott5114 »
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #60 on: June 15, 2018, 12:54:19 AM »

6 counties out of the 53 control the state government.  I have friends in western NY state and their area opposes much of what comes from that governance.
Yep, the majority of the population has a majority of representation.  Imagine that.

Let them create their own state.  Imagine that.
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Scott M. Kozel
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kkt

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #61 on: June 15, 2018, 01:21:07 AM »

Regarding Congress, what people are forgetting is that the House is very likely to flip to the Democrats in this year’s election. The Senate is probably a coin flip at this point. So in 2019, any voter-approved split in CA would have a more friendly reception on Capitol Hill. (Of course, Trump could veto it and there’s no chance Congress has the votes to override.)

Good question whether Congressional approval of a new state is subject to a Presidential veto. But it might be subject to a Senate filibuster, depending on what the Senate's rules look like next year.

As for getting voter approval, this is starting to look like the failed six-state initiative. Enough issues, especially where borders would slice through regions (like the Los Angeles metro area, and the Monterey area), to say nothing of critical water rights issues, to provoke second and third thoughts, and lose votes.

It's not really a good question whether Congress's vote to admit a state is subject to veto.  It's a very easy question, because it happened.  Andrew Johnson vetoed both Colorado and Nebraska's admission. 
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roadman65

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #62 on: June 15, 2018, 10:56:11 AM »

The current US Congress wouldn't approve it, anyway; Northern California and (regular) California are both solidly Democratic, and Southern California leans Democratic (comparable to New Mexico politically), and the current Congress is Republican.
The fact that one of the three isn't solidly blue means a split would probably be good for Republicans. Then at least they'd have a shot at winning in part of it, which is more than they can say now.
The balance in the senate would change from 2 reliably Democratic seats to 4 reliably Democratic seats and 2 tossup seats.
Likewise, in the Electoral College the balance would change from 1 reliably Democratic state to 2 reliably Democratic states and 1 tossup state.  The GOP isn't going to go for it.

I wasn't thinking of the Senate, I think 100 senators is enough!
But in the Electoral College, the GOP still has potential to at least it tap into the largest bloc of electoral votes in the nation. It's not much, but it certainly couldn't hurt.
Well we would get now 104 Senators which the current California as is would get 6 people in the Senate instead of 2 and for the Left that would be a good thing.  Considering all of California is usually Dem (unless there are some counties in that state that are GOP that I do not know a bout) they will indeed have more say in that House.

Enough on sides of the aisle, this whole thing should prove interesting as we have not had a change in states since Hawaii got accepted into the Union.  So history again we may possibly witness.
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Sheryl Crowe

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #63 on: June 15, 2018, 12:50:10 PM »

Considering all of California is usually Dem (unless there are some counties in that state that are GOP that I do not know a bout) they will indeed have more say in that House.

The proposed "Southern California" contains Orange County (3.2 million) - solidly Republican; Riverside County (2.4 million) and Kern County (.9 million) - lean Republican; and San Diego County (3.3 million), San Bernardino County (2.1 million), and Fresno County (1 million), lean Democratic but all solidly "purple."
This state could, with the right candidates, be a Republican stronghold for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #64 on: June 15, 2018, 12:58:50 PM »

Considering all of California is usually Dem (unless there are some counties in that state that are GOP that I do not know a bout) they will indeed have more say in that House.

The proposed "Southern California" contains Orange County (3.2 million) - solidly Republican; Riverside County (2.4 million) and Kern County (.9 million) - lean Republican; and San Diego County (3.3 million), San Bernardino County (2.1 million), and Fresno County (1 million), lean Democratic but all solidly "purple."
This state could, with the right candidates, be a Republican stronghold for the foreseeable future.

From what I read, it's similar to New Mexico — Bush would have won it in 2004, Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Clinton in 2016, but 2010 and 2014 would have been good Republican midterm years for both senator and governor. The only result that doesn't match is that New Mexico elected a Democratic senator in 2014.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #65 on: June 15, 2018, 08:52:28 PM »

Will NY ever break up?  Considering that the NYC metro area and Long Island control Albany I am sure those in the Adirondack Region as well as western NY State are pissed that they have no say in what gets done in the state capital.
Remember only 40 percent of the state's 19 million are outside of the NYC area and I am sure some on the right are complaining when Cuomo wins a gubnotorial election or the fact that they are paying statewide to keep the buses and the trains running within the five boroughs with part of their paychecks.  Only a few examples but I am sure being the 40 under the 60 does have some concerns on any issue thought up by SE New Yorkers I would think.

6 counties out of the 53 control the state government.  I have friends in western NY state and their area opposes much of what comes from that governance.
Yep, the majority of the population has a majority of representation.  Imagine that.
If it weren't for the downstate block, we'd probably have a 70 mph speed limit instead of being the Oregon of the East, and mile-based exit numbers would have arrived decades ago.  We also probably would have finished I-86, US 219, and I-98 (or at least started it) by now.
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michravera

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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #66 on: June 15, 2018, 09:08:46 PM »

The current US Congress wouldn't approve it, anyway; Northern California and (regular) California are both solidly Democratic, and Southern California leans Democratic (comparable to New Mexico politically), and the current Congress is Republican.
The fact that one of the three isn't solidly blue means a split would probably be good for Republicans. Then at least they'd have a shot at winning in part of it, which is more than they can say now.
The balance in the senate would change from 2 reliably Democratic seats to 4 reliably Democratic seats and 2 tossup seats.
Likewise, in the Electoral College the balance would change from 1 reliably Democratic state to 2 reliably Democratic states and 1 tossup state.  The GOP isn't going to go for it.

I wasn't thinking of the Senate, I think 100 senators is enough!
But in the Electoral College, the GOP still has potential to at least it tap into the largest bloc of electoral votes in the nation. It's not much, but it certainly couldn't hurt.
Well we would get now 104 Senators which the current California as is would get 6 people in the Senate instead of 2 and for the Left that would be a good thing.  Considering all of California is usually Dem (unless there are some counties in that state that are GOP that I do not know a bout) they will indeed have more say in that House.

Enough on sides of the aisle, this whole thing should prove interesting as we have not had a change in states since Hawaii got accepted into the Union.  So history again we may possibly witness.

More senators, yes, but this would likely be 2 more Democrat (for a total of 4) and two more Republican for a net of no change.

The House would, under current rules, remain the same size (or return to the same size after 2020 reapportionment), and, barring demographic shifts or gerrymandering, would remain in roughly the same proportion of parties. Maybe one extra representative total to the 3 Californias. Maybe one representative less. It's hard to know until after
the census.

One immediate consequence would be that Southern California would immediately revoke Sanctuary policies and you would have another state that believes in both enforcing US immigration law and in assisting the US in locating and relocating those aliens of all stripes who commit crimes located on the border with Mexico. You would have a wall of "legal entry only" states all of the way across the southern border.


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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #67 on: June 15, 2018, 09:54:21 PM »

If it weren't for the downstate block, we'd probably have a 70 mph speed limit instead of being the Oregon of the East, and mile-based exit numbers would have arrived decades ago.  We also probably would have finished I-86, US 219, and I-98 (or at least started it) by now.

I have to agree with this. I've often wondered what else would be different about upstate if it was its own state. As I said above, it would probably be a battleground in national elections.

To tie into another current thread, maybe the thruway would be six-laned by now too.  :-P
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #68 on: June 15, 2018, 10:00:47 PM »

If it weren't for the downstate block, we'd probably have a 70 mph speed limit instead of being the Oregon of the East, and mile-based exit numbers would have arrived decades ago.  We also probably would have finished I-86, US 219, and I-98 (or at least started it) by now.

I have to agree with this. I've often wondered what else would be different about upstate if it was its own state. As I said above, it would probably be a battleground in national elections.

To tie into another current thread, maybe the thruway would be six-laned by now too.  :-P

Gas would be cheaper by about 10-20˘.

In most areas, sports fans would prefer the Buffalo or Boston teams instead of the New York teams. (Near-downstate areas would prefer New York teams, as they currently do.)
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #69 on: June 16, 2018, 11:31:28 AM »

From what I understand the split to be on the maps, LA would be in the center coastal part of the state leaving it and San Diego in two separate states.  That would make SF and Oakland in the Northern proposal area.

So Basically San Diego would become the largest city in South California, Los Angeles in the Center, and San Francisco the largest in Northern California.   

Well from the attitude  of the now defunct Sonesta Villa Resort of Orlando's many California visitors, it would sound right to the difference in Culture I got when talking with my guests from the Golden State in the early 90's.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #70 on: June 16, 2018, 11:33:15 AM »

So Basically San Diego would become the largest city in South California, Los Angeles in the Center, and San Francisco the largest in Northern California.   

San Jose is larger than San Francisco.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #71 on: June 16, 2018, 11:45:44 AM »

So Basically San Diego would become the largest city in South California, Los Angeles in the Center, and San Francisco the largest in Northern California.   

San Jose is larger than San Francisco.
I believe San Jose would not be in Northern California.  Looks to me the split would be just north of it.
https://cal3.com/proposed-measure/
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #72 on: June 16, 2018, 12:31:54 PM »

So Basically San Diego would become the largest city in South California, Los Angeles in the Center, and San Francisco the largest in Northern California.   

San Jose is larger than San Francisco.
I believe San Jose would not be in Northern California.  Looks to me the split would be just north of it.
https://cal3.com/proposed-measure/

The map on that site puts the split well south of San Jose.

A split dividing the Bay Area (which includes San Jose, at the south end of the bay) into two states would be truly daffy.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #73 on: June 16, 2018, 01:56:55 PM »

So Basically San Diego would become the largest city in South California, Los Angeles in the Center, and San Francisco the largest in Northern California.   

San Jose is larger than San Francisco.
I believe San Jose would not be in Northern California.  Looks to me the split would be just north of it.
https://cal3.com/proposed-measure/

The map on that site puts the split well south of San Jose.

A split dividing the Bay Area (which includes San Jose, at the south end of the bay) into two states would be truly daffy.

Yes, the split follows county lines, with all of Santa Clara County (where San Jose is) in North California.  There's a better map at

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-split-three-states-20180612-story.html

(paywall with limited number of free articles each month)

There will be a lot of split metro areas no matter how you do it.  For instance, Monterey and Santa Cruz function as the same metro area, but are split here.
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Re: Initiative to break California into 3 states to go on November ballot
« Reply #74 on: June 16, 2018, 03:32:32 PM »

Some talk accrued last year about California turning into a defacto apartheid state with Silicon Valley tech giants and Hollywood royalty constituting the 'ruling class' and everyone else would be in the same (lowest) tier economically.

Not sure if the 3 state solution follows on to that or what . . . .
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