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[tradephoric]

To highlight the slow recovery this economy has been experiencing, here is a graph of the percent job losses relative to peak employment.  This recovery just returned to peak employment but it took a long time to get there. 



We also have historically low unemployment rates and high consumer confidence right now... which are more signs that we may have reached the peak of this business cycle.  While these indicators suggest everything looks good right now... these indicators always look good right before a crash.

[hbelkins]

LOL it sounds like it wanted you to refer to him as a hillbilly.

Certainly not. That would be a personal attack, and personal attacks are expressly forbidden.

No, it was meant to be a comment on my weight. I'm quite proud of my rural heritage and wouldn't think of changing it.

When you have nothing else, make personal attacks. (See his personal comment, which is aimed at me because he complained about my anti-Hillary tag line and it got all such personal comments banned.)

[1]

I have thought for the last few years that there would be a crash in or before 2020. However, it seems like late 2021 to early 2022 is more likely, based on your graphs (especially the ones in earlier pages of this thread). Maybe slow growth means more time between recessions.

[abefroman329]

LOL it sounds like it wanted you to refer to him as a hillbilly.

Certainly not. That would be a personal attack, and personal attacks are expressly forbidden.

No, it was meant to be a comment on my weight. I'm quite proud of my rural heritage and wouldn't think of changing it.

When you have nothing else, make personal attacks. (See his personal comment, which is aimed at me because he complained about my anti-Hillary tag line and it got all such personal comments banned.)

What makes you think it’s aimed at you? That’s a serious charge and you don’t have any evidence to support it.

[tradephoric]

It can be dangerous to rely entirely on technical analysis.  Since 1990 the 1-year moving average of the DJIA has crossed below the 2-year moving average just 3 times (in 2001, 2008, and 2016).  When this crossover occurred in 2016 you could have made the case that a crash was coming (since in 2001 and 2008 the crossover did foresee a crash).  However, looking back i'd equate the 2016 crossover to the 1998 and 2006 "failed" crossover.  You have a period in the bull run where the market looses steam and wants to retest that 2-year moving average, only to have one more big run up before the actual crash occurs.  Well we had the big run up from 2016-2018, and now it looks like we are primed for another crash.  Today's price action really does reflect the price action from late 2007.. just like in 2007 we just had a failed double top and now it appears the 1-year and 2-year moving averages are getting ready to converge.  And the recession indicators of today are similar to the recession indicators from 2007.

[abefroman329]

he complained about my anti-Hillary tag line and it got all such personal comments banned

This isn’t true. Mods and admins have told you it isn’t true. Here’s the thread where they tell you it’s not true:

https://www.aaroads.com/forum/index.php?topic=22967.0

Repeating a lie doesn’t make it magically true if you’ve repeated it enough times.

[Roadsguy]

Is this supposed to just be an experiment in unmoderated threads or something?

[Takumi]

yawn

[abefroman329]

Is this supposed to just be an experiment in unmoderated threads or something?

I hope the mods and admins have better things to do today.

[1]

The Dow Jones isn't an accurate indicator of the entire economy.

[tradephoric]

It's kind of ironic that the September 1988 cover of the economist magazine had Ten 10 2018 on the coin around the Phoenix's neck.  The beginning of this most current downturn really began on October 10, 2018 when the DOW plunged 831 points (considering the market had already recovered from the February selloff earlier in the year).



This is what the economist is saying today on how to prepare for the next global recession:

[tradephoric]

Hillary plans on running for president in 2020.  These are comments she made during a live taping of Recode Decode at New York City's 92nd Street YMCA. 

Now people will say she doesn't have a shot but the Simpsons already predicted that she would become president after Donald Trump.  IMO, the only way she becomes president is if the country is in the midst of a global financial crisis the likes of 2008.  Somebody better warn Trump not to invest in children.

[SSOWorld]

ok, the political thing has gone long enough - this subject got diluted - time to lock