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Author Topic: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019  (Read 633 times)

MNHighwayMan

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Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« on: April 13, 2019, 10:13:47 AM »

Wishing good luck today to folks living in most of LA and parts of TX, AR, and MS.

Categorical outlook:



Tornado outlook:



Besides general discussion, this thread is also meant as a place to post news articles from now to after the fact, especially if the worst happens.
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oscar

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2019, 10:19:48 AM »

Of course, parts of your state and neighboring states just got whacked pretty had by an April snowstorm. On the road in eastern Kentucky, some of the other people checking into my hotel were fleeing south from Minnesota.
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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2019, 10:22:04 AM »

Of course, parts of your state and neighboring states just got whacked pretty had by an April snowstorm. On the road in eastern Kentucky, some of the other people checking into my hotel were fleeing south from Minnesota.

Almost all of that happened in Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota. The northern fringes of Iowa got some ice, but all the rest of the state got was some heavy wind and maybe a small thunderstorm. Here, a thunderstorm passed through Des Moines at about 4:30 in the morning on Thursday. Unfortunately I was at work at the time and all I got to do was listen.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 10:24:50 AM by MNHighwayMan »
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2019, 10:23:04 AM »

That worst that happens is that they keep talking about the population now when it comes to these storms, as it drives up views and ratings.  Especially in the view above: No area has a greater than 15% chance of a tornado (and I can't figure out what the Sig Severe area means), but yet looking at that map you'll believe that the entire region is significantly affected.
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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2019, 10:28:21 AM »

That worst that happens is that they keep talking about the population now when it comes to these storms, as it drives up views and ratings.  Especially in the view above: No area has a greater than 15% chance of a tornado

It means that any one point within the affected area has a 15 percent chance of being affected by a tornado. Despite the relatively low risk of any one spot being affected, do not underestimate the fact that the area will see tornadoes.

Quote
(and I can't figure out what the Sig Severe area means)

That any one particular spot within the hatched area has a minimum ten percent chance of being affected by a significant (EF2 or greater) tornado. Again, see above.

Just because TV over-dramatizes the probability of severe weather causing mayhem does not mean that the risk should be ignored.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 10:32:10 AM by MNHighwayMan »
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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2019, 12:37:08 AM »

Ten reports of tornadoes so far today, according to the SPC's page for storm reports. Do note that this is a preliminary count.

Also of note is that a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado warning was just issued for Itawamba and Monroe Counties in Mississippi.

Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ITAWAMBA AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 1130 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Detroit, or 10 miles northwest of Sulligent, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amory, Smithville, New Salem, Hatley, Gattman, Sipsey Fork, Quincy,
Cardsville, Turon, Splunge, Wise Gap, Athens, Greenwood Springs and
Parham.

Edit: There was another for Kemper County as well, issued a few minutes earlier:

Quote
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
KEMPER COUNTY...

At 1127 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Porterville, or 13 miles north of Lauderdale, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Electric Mills around 1135 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Scooba.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2019, 12:41:24 AM by MNHighwayMan »
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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2019, 01:28:52 AM »

Video from Pecos Hank of one of the tornadoes near Lovelady, Texas.

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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2019, 01:24:19 PM »

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ipeters61

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2019, 04:58:51 AM »

Possibly unrelated to this system but I could barely sleep tonight and then I got a tornado warning around 3:30am.  Torrential downpours with wind from about 3:30am-4:15am.  I was watching WBOC during that time and they had concerns about Leipsic DE (about 10 miles NNE of me), Harrington DE (about 20 miles SW of me), Laurel DE (about 45 miles S of me), and Tangier Island VA (about 100 miles SSW of me).  Tornado warnings were issued throughout the Delmarva Peninsula.  I included the one in Dover for reference.


There was some damage in the Laurel area from an apparent tornado:

« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 05:02:20 AM by ipeters61 »
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2019, 06:19:30 AM »



Within that picture the poster (DelmarvaWx) states a confirmed tornado.  That is absolutely impossible to determine at that time of night, especially with such minor damage.

There was a tornado warning for us too last night.  I had turned my alerts off long ago because of so many false warnings.  It was a decent storm that moved thru -  lots of lightning, but didn't appear there was any reason to wake up the entire Philadelphia region for a tornado warning.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2019, 06:22:03 AM by jeffandnicole »
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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2019, 06:24:11 AM »

There was a tornado warning for us too last night.  I had turned my alerts off long ago because of so many false warnings.  It was a decent storm that moved thru -  lots of lightning, but didn't appear there was any reason to wake up the entire Philadelphia region for a tornado warning.

Tornado warnings are issued when radar returns indicate rotation. This rotation can become an actual tornado at any point.

But you're right. Let them sleep instead. Maybe next time it'll become a tornado and then they can sleep for eternity.
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2019, 08:02:12 AM »

There was a tornado warning for us too last night.  I had turned my alerts off long ago because of so many false warnings.  It was a decent storm that moved thru -  lots of lightning, but didn't appear there was any reason to wake up the entire Philadelphia region for a tornado warning.

Tornado warnings are issued when radar returns indicate rotation. This rotation can become an actual tornado at any point.

Exactly.  Early indications are there was no rotation in many of the areas where the warning was issued.

Too many bogus warnings have caused people to turn off their phone alerts.  When the entire Philly metro area of 5 or 6 million people were woken up to an alert a few years ago, millions of people turned off their alerts.  So some people were woken up again last night - mostly people that have received new phones and forgot to disable the alert.

The NWS is continuously clickbaiting people with dubious alerts, and the result is very few people actually have alerts enabled on their phone anymore.  In Iowa, they have serious tornados.  In the Philly area, most 'tornados' are reclassified as straight-line winds.  Damages that occur are along the lines of an F-0.  A few people may have some trees overturned that hit houses, and power lines are down, but that's about it.

If you want to believe 'better safe than sorry', then feel free to do so.  When alerts are blasted and there's nothing to show for it, results are predictable for millions of people that didn't run to their nearest safe area of the house, but rather continued to lay in bed.
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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2019, 08:26:10 AM »

Exactly.  Early indications are there was no rotation in many of the areas where the warning was issued.

Fair enough, if this is true. NWS offices should know that too many warnings cause them to be ignored.

I've just never seen a tornado warning issued without (at least) radar indications of their development.
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KEVIN_224

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2019, 08:55:53 AM »

Possible tornado down by Seaford, DE. The same line was very noisy for us in central CT, especially between 5 to 7 AM EDT. Brainard Airport (HFD) in Hartford picked up maybe 9/10 of an inch. Strong wind for a time, but saw no power issues where I am (Berlin, CT near the Newington town line).
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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #14 on: April 15, 2019, 09:42:30 AM »

Now were expecting more late this week across Texas and Oklahoma. Weve had constant Enhanced or higher risks every week since late February. It appears Wednesday will be another Moderate risk event.
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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2019, 09:45:05 AM »

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #16 on: April 15, 2019, 01:44:42 PM »

Exactly.  Early indications are there was no rotation in many of the areas where the warning was issued.

Fair enough, if this is true. NWS offices should know that too many warnings cause them to be ignored.

I've just never seen a tornado warning issued without (at least) radar indications of their development.

So I went and found that warning, which was archived here. As it turns out, the NWS's radar indicated strong rotation, and as a result the tornado warning was issued at 3:19 AM. By 3:37, the rotation had weakened and the warning expired.

In addition, even if no actual tornado touched down, there were several reports of severe straight-line winds and wind damage within the warning, so waking people up for the storm may not have been a bad thing.



As for here in Atlanta, we had a tornado watch yesterday morning for the first line of storms, and then a severe thunderstorm watch for a second line later in the day. The NWS's warning/radar maps looked especially impressive last night, with a nearly continuous stretch of tornado watches and severe thunderstorm warnings from SC all the way up to NY.
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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #17 on: April 15, 2019, 01:59:07 PM »

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MNHighwayMan

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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2019, 02:14:52 PM »

Exactly.  Early indications are there was no rotation in many of the areas where the warning was issued.
Fair enough, if this is true. NWS offices should know that too many warnings cause them to be ignored.

I've just never seen a tornado warning issued without (at least) radar indications of their development.
So I went and found that warning, which was archived here. As it turns out, the NWS's radar indicated strong rotation, and as a result the tornado warning was issued at 3:19 AM. By 3:37, the rotation had weakened and the warning expired.

In addition, even if no actual tornado touched down, there were several reports of severe straight-line winds and wind damage within the warning, so waking people up for the storm may not have been a bad thing.

Thank you. I didn't think they'd issue a warning without a good reason.
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Re: Severe Weather on April 13, 2019
« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2019, 02:34:40 PM »

Somebody I know was woken up during a tornado warning in Salem County, New Jersey by some pretty violent wind and rain,  around 3:40 AM, he said it was the loudest he'd ever heard. I updated him that the warning expired (I'm always awake at those kinds of times, go me) and just like that, he said the violent weather did too.


Over here all I saw was some rain. During a brief tornado watch it suddenly rained violently for about a minute and a half, then suddenly stopped. Stuff like that happens all the time, nothing big. Everything that was forecast to hit me never ended up doing so, either completely missing me or grazing me. South of me there was a tornado warning in McBee, SC.
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