Coronavirus pandemic

[Bruce]

A few cities here have closed their parks because of inappropriate social congregation...people can't follow suggestions, so sadly they have to ruin it for all of us.

or the city can fuck the fuck off and not close parks.

And we can have more asymptomatic carriers from those park gatherings going home and infecting vulnerable people, who get sent to the already overburdened hospitals to die a horrible death.

I went for a walk on a local trail today and was able to maintain an appropriate social distance. If there are too many people at a park to maintain the social distance, it needs to be closed to all users, period. The virus can spread from person to person in outdoor environments, even if it isn't as strong as it is indoor.

[US 89]

A few cities here have closed their parks because of inappropriate social congregation...people can't follow suggestions, so sadly they have to ruin it for all of us.

or the city can fuck the fuck off and not close parks.

And we can have more asymptomatic carriers from those park gatherings going home and infecting vulnerable people, who get sent to the already overburdened hospitals to die a horrible death.

From what I understand, while asymptomatic transmission is possible, it is relatively rare and not really something to worry a whole lot about. If you come into contact with an asymptomatic person who has had contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case, current CDC guidelines do not consider you exposed - otherwise you’d probably have to quarantine for 14 days and then never develop any symptoms in that 2 week span.

[Duke87]

From what I understand, while asymptomatic transmission is possible, it is relatively rare and not really something to worry a whole lot about. If you come into contact with an asymptomatic person who has had contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case, current CDC guidelines do not consider you exposed - otherwise you'd probably have to quarantine for 14 days and then never develop any symptoms in that 2 week span.

Okay so let's keep something important in mind here: statistically speaking, transmission of the virus at any stage of infection is relatively rare. When things are completely unchecked we're talking about each person who has the virus spreading it on average to 3-4 other people. Out of probably thousands they have direct or indirect contact with over the course of the infection.

The problem is an infected person spreading the virus to any number of other people greater than 1 results in exponential case growth, so even that "rare" transmission is still too much.

So now why is it that almost every other person who encounters the infected directly or indirectly doesn't get sick? Well, here's something else to consider: when a person with a fully functioning immune system inhales a few dozen virus particles, the odds they'll ever get sick are basically nil. Their immune system will get rid of those before they're able to do any damage. It takes exposure to, generally, over 10,000 virus particles before you get to the point where they'll take over cells and start replicating faster than the immune system is able to stop them.

It thus logically follows that the amount of exposure matters a lot. It's perfectly safe to walk past someone on the street closer than the recommended 6 foot separation distance. Even if they're infected, the amount of time you're in proximity to each other will be too low for anything to come of it. But, y'know, don't stop and have a conversation with them while they're that close to you. Don't stand right next to them in line at the store. The longer you spend in the presence of someone infected, the more virus particles you will inhale, and the greater the risk of you getting sick becomes.

This is why, for example, dine-in at restaurants is a no-no, but going inside quickly to pick up take-out is fine. It's also why events like spectator sports, religious services, parties, etc. are BAD because you have large numbers of people remaining in close proximity to each other for prolonged periods of time - the last part is key.

The same sort of thing applies to contact exposure. You may hear all these crazy stats about how "the virus can survive up to 12 hours on the surface of this or that", but that doesn't really give an accurate picture of the situation. In actuality, once viruses are deposited on a surface, they will gradually become inert and incapable of causing infection - following, roughly, an exponential decay curve. When they say "the virus can survive up to 12 hours on this surface" what they actually mean is it takes 12 hours for the last virus particle to become inert. But since it takes a larger number of virus particles to make you sick, this is not the measurement that actually matters. In reality, the risk of getting sick from touching a contaminated surface (and then touching your face) is the highest when that surface was just touched, coughed on, etc. by the infected individual within the last few minutes, and it drops from there. You don't need to leave things you bring into your house sitting for 12 hours before they're safe to touch if not disinfected. They become okay to touch a lot sooner than that even if they still have some number of viruses on them.

[Scott5114]

I've never really understood how you "close" a park. It's just an area set aside for recreational use. Most city parks around here don't really have a fence or anything around them you could lock up, so you'd have to station police there 24/7 while the park is closed, and Norman probably has more parks than it does police officers.

[jeffandnicole]

I've never really understood how you "close" a park. It's just an area set aside for recreational use. Most city parks around here don't really have a fence or anything around them you could lock up, so you'd have to station police there 24/7 while the park is closed, and Norman probably has more parks than it does police officers.

In many cases, they put up snow fences around playground equipment to keep kids off them. Yes, it's somewhat of an honor system. People need to stop making it like a challenge though to find ways around bans.

[kwellada]

That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.  Either provide it or perhaps pipe down with conspiracy theories. 

[MikeTheActuary]

A Memphis without cops positioned at every single exit? Shocking.

My hotel was by the I-40/Germantown Parkway interchange, so....

Also, in Memphis, those aren't speed-traps.  Those are "officers pre-positioned for highway shootings, who enforce speed laws in an effort to stay awake".

[bing101]

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/22/live-governor-expected-announce-new-restrictions-bid-fight-spread-virus/




Update Hawaii has issued a 14 day quarantine order.

[Brandon]

That's a rather dumb comment. I still think it's highly likely that China developed this as a biological weapon.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.  Either provide it or perhaps pipe down with conspiracy theories. 

I also sincerely doubt it's a biological weapon of any kind.  Virii are very hard to control as weapons, and they often can bounce back onto your own troops/people easily.  It's most likely due to someone eating something they probably shouldn't and getting sick off it.

Never attribute to malice what can almost always be better explained by simple human stupidity and incompetence.

[kwellada]

I also sincerely doubt it's a biological weapon of any kind.  Virii are very hard to control as weapons, and they often can bounce back onto your own troops/people easily.  It's most likely due to someone eating something they probably shouldn't and getting sick off it.

Never attribute to malice what can almost always be better explained by simple human stupidity and incompetence.

Plus there's the established science of viruses hopping from pigs or birds or bats to a human population particularly in areas where the wild is pressured by humans moving into their territories.  Given that it's also from the coronavirus family, it's exceptionally unlikely to be a bioweapon. 

It'd make for an interesting sci-fi novel, other than the fact that Stephen King probably nailed the concept in The Stand way back in the 70s. 

[J N Winkler]

So now why is it that almost every other person who encounters the infected directly or indirectly doesn't get sick? Well, here's something else to consider: when a person with a fully functioning immune system inhales a few dozen virus particles, the odds they'll ever get sick are basically nil. Their immune system will get rid of those before they're able to do any damage. It takes exposure to, generally, over 10,000 virus particles before you get to the point where they'll take over cells and start replicating faster than the immune system is able to stop them.

It thus logically follows that the amount of exposure matters a lot. It's perfectly safe to walk past someone on the street closer than the recommended 6 foot separation distance. Even if they're infected, the amount of time you're in proximity to each other will be too low for anything to come of it. But, y'know, don't stop and have a conversation with them while they're that close to you. Don't stand right next to them in line at the store. The longer you spend in the presence of someone infected, the more virus particles you will inhale, and the greater the risk of you getting sick becomes.

This is why, for example, dine-in at restaurants is a no-no, but going inside quickly to pick up take-out is fine. It's also why events like spectator sports, religious services, parties, etc. are BAD because you have large numbers of people remaining in close proximity to each other for prolonged periods of time - the last part is key.

I think this all goes to the concept of viral load, and for coronavirus at least, it seems to have implications for case severity as well.  When the Chinese ophthalmologist and coronavirus dissident Li Wenliang fell mortally ill, he was just 33 years old (thus in the age group with an 0.2% case fatality rate) and in excellent health.  But he is thought to have been exposed while treating someone who worked at the Huanan Seafood Market and thus presented with a high viral load.

[webny99]

Cross-posted to the Utica Road Meet thread, as this is where it really belongs:

My personal opinion is that most of this blows over either next week or the week after, and things start getting back to normal.

A recession is inevitable, so it certainly won't be pre-March 11th normal. It will be a new kind of normal, and it will likely take more than a few weeks to figure out what that new normal will be, and just how much damage has been done to the economy.

Signs of "returning to normal" that I'll be looking for:

-Schools reopening
-Offices reopening
-Sports leagues restarting
-Traffic levels increasing

IMO, it depends on what state you're in, but in NY at least, all of those things are a few weeks away at minimum. Maybe a month would be more realistic. Keep in mind too that the coronavirus cases that are being reported today are the result of transmission a week or up to two weeks ago, before shutdowns, social distancing, and staying home became the norm.

[LM117]

Welp, this shit has finally worked it's way to my neck of the woods...and no, I'm not the one infected. *knock on wood*

https://www.godanriver.com/news/local/update-danville-man-in-his-s-is-first-case-of/article_71eb0cc0-6c46-11ea-a809-333cc1fd1a7b.html

[Max Rockatansky]

My Wife's weekend job at a mental health facility in Fresno thought they had two infected patients, it turned out they didn't.  So far there has been a lot of moonlight opportunities and n the weekend, during the week my wife works up in Madera County.  I guess at least in Madera County they have moved to a partial work from home schedule and aren't doing office visits with mental health clients.  I'm to understand everything has to be done over the phone. 

[US71]

China will "pay for" COVID the same way that Mexico will "pay for" a border wall: it won't.

We have a winner!

[Max Rockatansky]

China will "pay for" COVID the same way that Mexico will "pay for" a border wall: it won't.

We have a winner!

Speaking of Mexico as far as I know mostly it seems to be business as usual down there.  The relatives actually called us because they heard "stay at home"  was a hard lock down.  I don't seem to recall much in the way of restrictions like we are seeing on this scale took place during Swine Flu. 

[J N Winkler]

My personal opinion is that most of this blows over either next week or the week after, and things start getting back to normal.

A recession is inevitable, so it certainly won't be pre-March 11th normal. It will be a new kind of normal, and it will likely take more than a few weeks to figure out what that new normal will be, and just how much damage has been done to the economy.

(snip)

IMO, it depends on what state you're in, but in NY at least, all of those things are a few weeks away at minimum. Maybe a month would be more realistic. Keep in mind too that the coronavirus cases that are being reported today are the result of transmission a week or up to two weeks ago, before shutdowns, social distancing, and staying home became the norm.

The Italian experience suggests it takes a few days for a lockdown to "bite" and for the daily rate of increase in cases to slow--in their case, from 20%-30% for the first few days to 13% for a few days.  Yesterday's increase was only 10%, which may be a sign a favorable trend is beginning.  (Neither Italy's lockdown nor the hard ones imposed by several US states amount to a full Wuhan, which would confine people to the indoors of their dwellings and limit outdoors movements to emergency personnel and medical providers.)

Wuhan locked down on January 23.  It is now two months later and just after the start of a two-week period of no new cases in Hubei, at the end of which there may be some relaxation of restrictions.  So my baseline is at least three months for mandatory lockdowns in the US and many months of additional delay (until the development of effective treatment outside ICUs or the adoption and widespread availability of a vaccine) before things return completely to normal.

I've seen some of the conversations about COVID-19 and its effects on road meets in the road meet board, and frankly I have to shake my head.  I'm basically in agreement with those who advocate wait-and-see, but I wouldn't be looking hard for road meets to be held until July at the very earliest.

[CNGL-Leudimin]

All of Hubei was in lockdown. But in the last few days, many places across the province have started to relax the restrictions, with some prefectures already out of lockdown. It is now possible to travel freely around the province outside of Wuhan.

Meanwhile Spain is preparing to go South Korea mode. They have already ordered rapid tests, as well as setting up drive-thru test sites. Therefore, I expect the number of new cases here to spike, then dramatically drop.

[dvferyance]

Cross-posted to the Utica Road Meet thread, as this is where it really belongs:

My personal opinion is that most of this blows over either next week or the week after, and things start getting back to normal.

A recession is inevitable, so it certainly won't be pre-March 11th normal. It will be a new kind of normal, and it will likely take more than a few weeks to figure out what that new normal will be, and just how much damage has been done to the economy.

Signs of "returning to normal" that I'll be looking for:

-Schools reopening
-Offices reopening
-Sports leagues restarting
-Traffic levels increasing

IMO, it depends on what state you're in, but in NY at least, all of those things are a few weeks away at minimum. Maybe a month would be more realistic. Keep in mind too that the coronavirus cases that are being reported today are the result of transmission a week or up to two weeks ago, before shutdowns, social distancing, and staying home became the norm.

I don't expect everything to be exactly how it was a couple weeks ago but I do agree this can't go on any longer than a couple weeks. Otherwise everything will go bankrupt restaurants, stores , museums theme parks will have to reopen they are losing too much money.

[dvferyance]

I would be in favor of a permanent travel ban on China. I mean really what do you need them for anyways? They are not are friends they haven't been for a really long time.

I disagree, they are a huge trading partner and it would be an economic disaster unto itself.  I haven't had a chance to reply to JN yet but I think he's right on the money about why new infections tend crop up in Asia first.

Yeah they have taken lots of our jobs away. They aren't are friends and never will be again. It's time that we get rid of that made in China label for good and make our own stuff again.

[bing101]

https://wgno.com/news/health/coronavirus/watch-live-governor-edwards-gives-coronavirus-update/

Update Louisiana has issued a Stay at home order
https://www.wafb.com/2020/03/15/latest-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-reported-la/

[bandit957]

Meanwhile Spain is preparing to go South Korea mode.

I thought Spain was doubling down on its current policy.

[bing101]

https://www.13abc.com/content/news/STAY-AT-HOME-Dept-of-Health-issues-order-to-all-Ohioans-read-it-here-569011091.html


Update Ohio has issued a Stay at home order.

[ozarkman417]

As the number of Missouri cases hit 90, Kansas City and Saint Louis metro areas issue Stay at Home orders.

[02 Park Ave]

Governor Murphy of New Jersey is not very happy about peoples' response to his latest restrictions.  What did he expect?