Coronavirus pandemic

[hotdogPi]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't. The whole point of requiring masks is so that people don't get sick.

[Tonytone]

iPhone

Something tells me this sort of sign is likely to be popular with the so-called "sovereign citizen" crowd.

You know it!

When the government is taking away your righ.... Wait our rights havent been taken away.


iPhone

I'm pretty sure that some people would protest "No Shirt. No Shoes. No Service" policies if they came out today.

I know you're saying this jokingly but this would definitely happen. I can see it.


iPhone

[SEWIGuy]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

Why? 

[bandit957]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.

[SEWIGuy]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.

OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

[kalvado]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.

OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

If anything, I would expect masks to become much more acceptable - not just Asian extravagance, but something socially accepted and even expected from those with even minor cold.
Hopefully same goes for handwashing.

[Brandon]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't stick around.  In the south, there's plenty of laws temporarily overridden that specifically prohibit mask wearing in public (for what should be obvious historical reasons).

[ftballfan]

Yesterday, Michigan reported its fewest new cases since the very early stages of the outbreak. That comes as testing volume has gone up. One day last week, Michigan administered over 12,000 COVID tests and around 7% came back positive.

Outside of the metro areas, the counties with the highest caseloads have had nursing home outbreaks (Alpena, Crawford, and Otsego come to mind)

[bandit957]

Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.

[Roadgeekteen]

Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.

Is that because of declining cases or increased testing?

[bandit957]

Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.

Is that because of declining cases or increased testing?

Both.

[tradephoric]

With over 80k deaths, the average US COVID death rate is roughly 25 per 100k.  There are 38 states that are averaging below that and only 10 states averaging above that death rate (i rounded every state to the nearest 5... so some states are technically closer to 0 deaths per 100,000 than 5 deaths per 100,000). 



I'm hopeful that those 38 states can come out this pandemic relatively unscathed when compared to the other states that have already been hit hard.  But is there any reason to believe that Texas won't catch up to their neighbor Louisiana in their death rate?  Also, Ohio's death rate won't catch up to their neighbors in Michigan and Pennsylvania?  This chart does estimate the number of deaths to expect during this pandemic given an average nationwide death rate (and currently IL and MD are the average death rate states).   

[kalvado]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

They won't stick around.  In the south, there's plenty of laws temporarily overridden that specifically prohibit mask wearing in public (for what should be obvious historical reasons).

can evolve to "(respiratory) masks covering the lower part of face" vs "masks covering area around eyes". Large sunglasses already make people hard to recognize, though, and combination of respiratory mask and large sunglasses can fully obscure face. That doesn't lead to banning sunglasses, though.
Overall, I assume that historical reasons are just that - historical reasons these days (especially with recognition evolving into harder to fake things like walking as well as forensic methods like fingerprint and DNA tests), vs pretty pressing health issues. 

[kalvado]

With over 80k deaths, the average US COVID death rate is roughly 25 per 100k.  There are 38 states that are averaging below that and only 10 states averaging above that death rate (i rounded every state to the nearest 5... so some states are technically closer to 0 deaths per 100,000 than 5 deaths per 100,000). 

Again, keep in mind that those successes are far from being watertight. Spanish flu did hit remote areas as well, as well as historically plague - leading to dying out for some places. Somewhat similar concept to meat plants being hit today; being in remote area grants no immunity. 

[tradephoric]

Yesterday, Michigan reported its fewest new cases since the very early stages of the outbreak. That comes as testing volume has gone up. One day last week, Michigan administered over 12,000 COVID tests and around 7% came back positive.

Outside of the metro areas, the counties with the highest caseloads have had nursing home outbreaks (Alpena, Crawford, and Otsego come to mind)

The states that have been hit hard by the virus are seeing coronavirus cases drop.  But most of the states that haven't been hit hard are seeing cases rise even during the lock down measures.  There are a few states (Hawaii, Alaska, Montana) that appear to be successful in containing the virus, but short of completely stomping the virus out the states that are seeing a slow climb in cases during the lock down may be in trouble.  California has been averaging 10k new cases per week and are seeing more new cases today than they were at the beginning of the lock down (more testing plays a role in that, but the point I'm making is the virus hasn't gone away).  Remember when the government thought they could contain 15 cases?  Well 15 cases turned into 1,000,000.  What will 10,000 cases in California turn into once things really start to reopen?


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=Connecticut&location=Louisiana&location=Massachusetts&location=Michigan&location=New+Jersey&location=New+York&location=Pennsylvania&location=Rhode+Island&doublingtime=3


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=Kentucky&location=North+Carolina&location=North+Dakota&doublingtime=3

[J N Winkler]

But is there any reason to believe that Texas won't catch up to their neighbor Louisiana in their death rate?

I hypothesize that when we have more time to crunch numbers, we will find much of the variation in infection rates between adjacent jurisdictions comes from super-spreader events.  In Louisiana's case, this was Mardi Gras in New Orleans.  Texas had a similar potential for disaster with SXSW in Austin, but that was cancelled.

[Max Rockatansky]

Yesterday, Michigan reported its fewest new cases since the very early stages of the outbreak. That comes as testing volume has gone up. One day last week, Michigan administered over 12,000 COVID tests and around 7% came back positive.

Outside of the metro areas, the counties with the highest caseloads have had nursing home outbreaks (Alpena, Crawford, and Otsego come to mind)

The states that have been hit hard by the virus are seeing coronavirus cases drop.  But most of the states that haven't been hit hard are seeing cases rise even during the lock down measures.  There are a few states (Hawaii, Alaska, Montana) that appear to be successful in containing the virus, but short of completely stomping the virus out the states that are seeing a slow climb in cases during the lock down may be in trouble.  California has been averaging 10k new cases per week and are seeing more new cases today than they were at the beginning of the lock down (more testing plays a role in that, but the point I'm making is the virus hasn't gone away).  Remember when the government thought they could contain 15 cases?  Well 15 cases turned into 1,000,000.  What will 10,000 cases in California turn into once things really start to reopen?


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=Connecticut&location=Louisiana&location=Massachusetts&location=Michigan&location=New+Jersey&location=New+York&location=Pennsylvania&location=Rhode+Island&doublingtime=3


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&location=California&location=Kentucky&location=North+Carolina&location=North+Dakota&doublingtime=3

Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

[oscar]

Overall, I assume that historical reasons are just that - historical reasons these days (especially with recognition evolving into harder to fake things like walking as well as forensic methods like fingerprint and DNA tests), vs pretty pressing health issues. 

It's not completely "historical". If it's not the KKK, there's always Antifa.

Some people are bothered (but shouldn't be) about the niqabs worn by some Muslim women in my area to cover all of their faces except their eyes. Helpful coincidence that the niqabs also provide some incidental protection against coronavirus spreading, but those women won't stop wearing niqabs (for religious reasons) even if the coronavirus threat goes away.

[tradephoric]

Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.

[kalvado]

Overall, I assume that historical reasons are just that - historical reasons these days (especially with recognition evolving into harder to fake things like walking as well as forensic methods like fingerprint and DNA tests), vs pretty pressing health issues. 

It's not completely "historical". If it's not the KKK, there's always Antifa.

On the other hand,  there is faster police response and a lot of surveillance cameras.
Facial recognition by witnesses is only that good anyway. It definitely works in smaller communities, but barely a factor in a multimillion city.
My message is that open face is only that good of a protection against prosecution these days - and that protection keeps diminishing; and it needs to be weighed against the benefit of a sanitary mask that may become better recognized by the society.

[Max Rockatansky]

Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.

Yes, and that example was no less cherry picking data to paint a narrative that certainly isn't true state wide.  Of the approximately 2,700 deaths in California approximately 1,500 have occurred in Los Angeles County.  Your inference suggests that places like Tehema County and Humboldt County are just at risk as Los Angeles County when there has been zero evidence to support that notion.  The Bay Area doesn't even have a County in the top five in the State (those counties start popping up in sixth place for active cases).  Right now the entire top five counties with active cases in Southern California. 

[hbelkins]

How much do you want to bet that mask ordinances stay in force even after the pandemic ends?

Why?

The Patriot Act never went away.

OK.  Wearing masks is a law most places.  Furthermore, the Patriot Act happens behind the scenes.  It doesn't impact our lives on a daily basis.  Wearing masks does.  There's a difference.

If you fly on an airplane, the Patriot Act most certainly does impact your life every time you have to take your shoes off to board a plane, every time you're not allowed to take liquid soap or shampoo or mouthwash in a container more than 3 ounces on a plane, or you have to stand in line and empty your pockets and open up your laptop. If you travel by car across the border, just search through some of the posts on this forum to see how American citizens have been grilled upon trying to return home. And beyond that, just google "Edward Snowden" to find out just how intrusive the government is into everyday activities since 9/11.

Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.

Interesting. I've seen reports that the death toll is overcounted because people who have the virus, but didn't actually die of the virus, are being counted.

[hotdogPi]

Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.

Yes, and that example was no less cherry picking data to paint a narrative that certainly isn't true state wide.  Of the approximately 2,700 deaths in California approximately 1,500 have occurred in Los Angeles County.  Your inference suggests that places like Tehema County and Humboldt County are just at risk as Los Angeles County when there has been zero evidence to support that notion.  The Bay Area doesn't even have a County in the top five in the State (those counties start popping up in sixth place for active cases).  Right now the entire top five counties with active cases in Southern California.

The most populous county in the Bay Area, Santa Clara County, has only 1/5 the population of Los Angeles County. It's also ranked 6th by population – if the virus was evenly distributed by population, there would still be nothing in the Bay Area in the top five.

[MikeTheActuary]

If anything, I would expect masks to become much more acceptable - not just Asian extravagance, but something socially accepted and even expected from those with even minor cold.
Hopefully same goes for handwashing.

I don't expect the US to maintain the habit of wearing a mask to keep germs to themselves...Americans dislike personal discomfort and personal inconvenience...which is a shame.

Nationwide, the percentage of tests that came back positive yesterday tumbled to 7.25%. Raw number of new cases is lowest since March 29. Weighted with the testing increase, it's the lowest since March 21.

Is that because of declining cases or increased testing?

Both.

However there are regions within states where new hospitalizations (a more reliable metric than new confirmed cases) are trending up.  The rates are low enough to not be as scary as, say, the upward trend in New York City a few weeks ago, but they are enough to be a reminder that the first wave isn't over everywhere in the US.

[Max Rockatansky]

Is there some particular reason you keep using California as your example?  You haven't even acknowledged half of the state's cases are in a single county from what the replies I've seen. 

You could make the same argument that the majority of cases in New York were in NYC.  That didn't prevent over 21,000 deaths from occurring in the state.  Just like NYC in the first wave, Southern California could become the second wave's epicenter.

Yes, and that example was no less cherry picking data to paint a narrative that certainly isn't true state wide.  Of the approximately 2,700 deaths in California approximately 1,500 have occurred in Los Angeles County.  Your inference suggests that places like Tehema County and Humboldt County are just at risk as Los Angeles County when there has been zero evidence to support that notion.  The Bay Area doesn't even have a County in the top five in the State (those counties start popping up in sixth place for active cases).  Right now the entire top five counties with active cases in Southern California.

The most populous county in the Bay Area, Santa Clara County, has only 1/5 the population of Los Angeles County. It's also ranked 6th by population – if the virus was evenly distributed by population, there would still be nothing in the Bay Area in the top five.

Yes, the main point I was trying to make was that the situation state wide isn't as grim as it as in Los Angeles County.  That even distribution state wide is essentially something that never could happen in reality given how spread out the population is outside the of the big metro areas.  Something that Los Angeles County does share with the Bay Area is an urban population density.  Even having a simple geographic barrier like San Francisco Bay or the Carquinez Strait does seem to have had an effect on containment.  Marin County and Solano County by comparison to their neighbors directly south have far lower overall cases.  Interestingly Contra Costa County has a low case load per 10,000.  In that particular case it might have much to do with the population center being removed from the rest of the Bay Area by way of the Diablo Range. 

Tulare County is interesting to me considering how high the case load per 10,000; right now it is 24.54.  Neighbor Kings County had a run of infections from a meat processing plant which drove their case load to about 19 per 10,000.  Kern County (Bakersfield) is just below the state average at about 14 per 10,000.  Fresno County is at about 9 per 10,000 presently.  What's interesting with Fresno County is that the City of Fresno was one of the first to order a lockdown which seems to have paid off.