Coronavirus pandemic

[LM117]

Our governor has delayed Phase One of reopening for Northern VA until May 28.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html

[oscar]

Incorrect Brandon, the stay was never granted - Bars here in town opened up swiftly.

Complicating things is that some Wisconsin localities put in their own restrictions ahead of the anticipated Supreme Court ruling. AIUI, that ruling does not apply to the local orders, though I suspect there will be a second wave of lawsuits against the localities anyway.

Good times for Wisconsin lawyers, huh?

[kphoger]

Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

[SEWIGuy]

The Wisconsin order requiring legislative involvement looks like a good, legal ruling.  The Court not extending a stay was their big mistake and has caused some chaos.  A stay that both sides wanted by the way.

[Brandon]

I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.

Incorrect Brandon, the stay was never granted - Bars here in town opened up swiftly.

So I noted this morning.  A bit hasty, IMHO.  Although, DHS should never be in charge of anything directly (I've got experience here dealing with them - they're not what I'd call "user friendly").  A better option (for both Wisconsin and Illinois) would be to follow Indiana's lead here.

[JoePCool14]

Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

That's insane.

[bandit957]

I don't understand why anyone is so upset now at states revoking a stay-at-home order. Montana did it. Indiana did it. Rhode Island did it, and they had one of the highest rates of this virus per capita of any state. A bunch of other states did it.

[Max Rockatansky]

Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

That's insane.

Not exactly any different than what they have been doing already aside from the lack of an expiration date. 

[kphoger]

Los Angles County (CA) has now issued an order that indefinitely prohibits people from gathering.  There is no end date on this order.

Revised Order Issued:  May 13, 2020

Violation of or failure to comply with this Order is a crime punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.

This Order is effective within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, defined as all unincorporated areas and cities within the County of Los Angles with the exception of the cities of Long Beach and Pasadena.  This Order is effective immediately and will continue until further notice.

... gatherings of people who are not part of a single household or living unit are prohibited within the County of Los Angeles Public Health Jurisdiction, except for the limited purposes expressly permitted by this Order.

That's insane.

Not exactly any different than what they have been doing already aside from the lack of an expiration date. 

True, but this contradicts what several people have said about these orders not impinging our rights because they're only temporary with clear end dates.

This new order could theoretically stay on the books forever.

I don't understand why anyone is so upset now at states revoking a stay-at-home order. Montana did it. Indiana did it. Rhode Island did it, and they had one of the highest rates of this virus per capita of any state. A bunch of other states did it.

Agreed.  HB asked if any place other than New York has been in danger of the health care system being overrun and, as far as I know, Seattle has been the only answer given.  It's possible I'm forgetting another.

Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.

Seattle came extremely close until the remote-work policies from major employers and shutdown from the state government really took effect. My local hospital (Everett Providence) was within days of running out of supplies, with similar stories reported at Harborview, Swedish, and UW Medical.

That was the whole point of flattening the curve. The virus will still have new cases because it's impossible to totally stamp out here, but if it's kept at a low enough level there won't be a total collapse of the health system.

Still, the death toll is now approaching 100,000 in official counts (and likely well over because of under-testing of the recently dead). That's a huge failure from the leadership up top, who were given plenty of time to prepare but didn't.

[tradephoric]

The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093336v1.full.pdf

^If true this is good news.  If herd immunity is reached when 43% of the population has been infected, NYC could expect to see roughly 8,000 additional COVID deaths before herd immunity is reached.

(25,000 current total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 33% immunity....

(33,000 future total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 43% immunity...

[US 89]

Utah is now moving into the yellow phase of its coronavirus recovery plan, except for Salt Lake City, West Valley City, Summit County, Wasatch County, and Grand County, which will all remain at the orange phase for now.

Among other things, in the yellow phase, all businesses can reopen and gatherings of up to 50 people may happen as long as social distancing is observed.

[Max Rockatansky]

@kphoger

I think that is where Los Angeles County is going to run into a problem with no advertising an end date on their order.  I'm not exactly boned up on my California Law but I don't believe County Officials can issue an Emergency Order without any end date.  If that's the case it's likely that someone will end up suing Los Angeles County to get an expiration date in place. 

[tradephoric]

Endcoronavirus.org breaks up the states that are beating COVID-19, states that are nearly there, and states that need to take action:

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/states

[dvferyance]

The Wisconsin order requiring legislative involvement looks like a good, legal ruling.  The Court not extending a stay was their big mistake and has caused some chaos.  A stay that both sides wanted by the way.

If the stay at home order was to be extended that was the job of the legislature. The court just ruled that the Governor did not have sole power to extend the order beyond the 60 day emergency peroid on his own. Which they are correct on.

[ftballfan]

Our governor has delayed Phase One of reopening for Northern VA until May 28.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/may/headline-856741-en.html

Good to see Virginia not punishing the whole state for the high caseloads of a few counties that are in close proximity to each other (*cough*Illinois*cough*Michigan*cough)

[hbelkins]

I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.

The ends don't justify the means. No matter how well-intentioned an executive officer's order may be -- and I have my doubts that governors like in Wisconsin, Kentucky, and other places have totally altruistic aims, given their ideologies -- those orders must be lawful. As I've repeatedly said, rights were written just for times such as these. If those rights are not applicable in times of crisis, they are worthless at all times. A court should not disregard the law just because there's a virus going around. Courts should rule on the law, not on current events.

[hotdogPi]

I hope you're proud of yourself Wisconsin REDS

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-supreme-court-strikes-down-stay-at-home-order/article_fd2be344-666f-5437-8955-f5cd9ae17a50.html#tracking-source=home-breaking

The order has a stay of one week before it ends, and the governor and the legislature must be involved in replacing it.  No more dictatorial rule, especially by DHS.

The ends don't justify the means. No matter how well-intentioned an executive officer's order may be -- and I have my doubts that governors like in Wisconsin, Kentucky, and other places have totally altruistic aims, given their ideologies -- those orders must be lawful. As I've repeatedly said, rights were written just for times such as these. If those rights are not applicable in times of crisis, they are worthless at all times. A court should not disregard the law just because there's a virus going around. Courts should rule on the law, not on current events.

The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

[tradephoric]

The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093336v1.full.pdf

^If true this is good news.  If herd immunity is reached when 43% of the population has been infected, NYC could expect to see roughly 8,000 additional COVID deaths before herd immunity is reached.

(25,000 current total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 33% immunity....

(33,000 future total deaths / .9% mortality) / 8.4 million people = 43% immunity...

Compare the level of immunity for NYC and LA County.  Assuming herd immunity is reached at 43%, NYC is about 75% of the way through the pandemic (25,000 current deaths / 33,000 expected deaths).  OTOH, LA County is about 4% of the way through it and LA County could expect 40k deaths before herd immunity is reached. 

(1,545 current deaths / .9% mortality) / 10.0 million people = 4% immunity...

(40,000 future deaths / .9% mortality) / 10.0 million people = 43% immunity...

[kphoger]

The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

So are people still allowed to gather for political protests?

[hotdogPi]

The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

So are people still allowed to gather for political protests?

While they can't be prohibited entirely, it goes against what the protesters are trying to advocate for, as they might be spreading the virus.

I don't believe anywhere prevents protesting if the 6-foot rule is followed.

[kphoger]

The only part of the Constitution that is relevant here is freedom of assembly. It's not being restricted to prevent protests or anything involving government. It's being restricted to get rid of a deadly virus.

So are people still allowed to gather for political protests?

While they can't be prohibited entirely, it goes against what the protesters are trying to advocate for, as they might be spreading the virus.

I don't believe anywhere prevents protesting if the 6-foot rule is followed.

I don't see it listed as a purpose "expressly permitted" by the Los Angeles County order I quoted up-thread.  All gatherings other than those expressly permitted are prohibited.

[SEWIGuy]

The Wisconsin order requiring legislative involvement looks like a good, legal ruling.  The Court not extending a stay was their big mistake and has caused some chaos.  A stay that both sides wanted by the way.

If the stay at home order was to be extended that was the job of the legislature. The court just ruled that the Governor did not have sole power to extend the order beyond the 60 day emergency peroid on his own. Which they are correct on.

Right.  Which is why I said it was the right legal decision.  However both the Legislature and the Governor wanted a six day stay.  But the stay wasn't ordered, which has lead to a patchwork of various counties being various degrees of "open."  Six days would have given time for the Legislature and Governor time to try to work together on a compromise plan.  Now its just chaos.

[bandit957]

Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.

[Roadgeekteen]

Evidently, Ohio is already opening swimming pools on May 26 - which is stunningly early considering how late Ohio is at everything.

Kentucky and Ohio are actually pretty far ahead of California.

Pools? Can covid be transmitted through water? Can you swim with a mask?

[kphoger]

Can you swim with a mask?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/98/57/86/98578638639cba1aba7df978bf99b56f.jpg