Coronavirus pandemic

[kalvado]

Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

I mean what is called "excess deaths".

[kalvado]

But to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?

Looks like formal accounting is done under died+covid = died from covid. Not sure if that would include those with a bullet wound in vital organs. Someone in this thread mentioned "eggshell skull" approach in criminal prosecution working same way.
The immediate cause of death, though, could be a heart issue - but that wouldn't occur if the virus didn't affect blood flow.

[SectorZ]

Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death

Yes, someone here at least blatantly lied in this case.

George Floyd was also positive for Covid-19, and I guarantee Minnesota listed him as a Covid related death.

[Max Rockatansky]

But to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?

Looks like formal accounting is done under died+covid = died from covid. Not sure if that would include those with a bullet wound in vital organs. Someone in this thread mentioned "eggshell skull" approach in criminal prosecution working same way.
The immediate cause of death, though, could be a heart issue - but that wouldn't occur if the virus didn't affect blood flow.

Would it though?  That seems to be something that medical examiners ought to be putting effort into actually determining given it could be vital data in the context of a pandemic.  I guess that's the rub, say it was someone who never had heart issues I could see it being classified likely as COVID related.  But then again if it's a person who has a long history of heart problems can that cause really just be lumped into COVID?  I'm assuming that if that's the case for COVID the eggshell approach would also be the rule for other diseases like the Flu?

[hbelkins]

**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.

No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.

I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...

This may have made news nationally. The wife of Congressman Andy Barr from Lexington died suddenly and unexpectedly. The cause was ruled to be a heart valve problem. I've been told by a family friend that she had been scheduled for elective corrective surgery, but that got canceled when Kentucky banned all elective medical procedures in advance of the wave of hospitalizations that never happened. Had the surgery taken place as planned, she would not have died.

[kalvado]

Would it though?  That seems to be something that medical examiners ought to be putting effort into actually determining given it could be vital data in the context of a pandemic.  I guess that's the rub, say it was someone who never had heart issues I could see it being classified likely as COVID related.  But then again if it's a person who has a long history of heart problems can that cause really just be lumped into COVID?  I'm assuming that if that's the case for COVID the eggshell approach would also be the rule for other diseases like the Flu?

Statistically, it looks a bit different. Here is the graph of (weekly?) mortality in NYC. It is pretty smooth... normally

And then, CDC compares that spike with reported causes:


But at least some of that excess is explicitly booked as not directly  related to the virus:

[J N Winkler]

But to that end it does raise an interesting question.  Say someone checked into the ICU for something COVID related but dies of something else during their hospitalization, how is that fatality counted?   Would a "heart attack"  be classified as a heart healthy fatality or would it be counted as COVID since that's what the victim checked in for?  Is there some sort of determination made by medical examiners that the cause of death was induced somehow by COVID or was already a preexisting condition?  I'm sure that is an actual methodology that someone can shed light on?

Certification of medical cause of death is the responsibility of the states, but death certificates are more or less standardized nationwide and the CDC publishes guidance on how underlying and contributory causes are to be reported.

Here is a circular specific to covid-19:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

And here is the handbook for medical certification of death:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/misc/hb_cod.pdf

This is a cheat sheet:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf

Additionally, I suspect the rules vary somewhat among the states in how edge cases are treated for purposes of counting covid-19 deaths.  My experience with the death certificates I've encountered as part of genealogical research also suggests that there is variation in whether the rules are observed at all.  For example, death certificate forms have long called for causes to be listed as a progressive sequence from immediate to underlying, yet for my second great-grandmother (died in Texas in 1951 at age 98), it goes "Arteriosclerotic heart disease--Decubitus ulcers, senility--Arteriosclerotic gangrene of left leg and foot."

[Scott5114]

Things are getting scary in Oklahoma.

A coworker of mine had her mother end up in the hospital in Chickasha this week, for an injury that was bad enough she needed the ICU (i.e. non-COVID-related). She ended up needing more advanced care than Chickasha was able to provide, but none of the hospitals in Oklahoma City or Norman (closer to where my coworker lives) would accept the transfer. She ended up being sent to Lawton instead. Even that was kind of touch-and-go for a while and there had been talk of Wichita Falls being the backup plan.

[wxfree]

Things are getting scary in Oklahoma.

A coworker of mine had her mother end up in the hospital in Chickasha this week, for an injury that was bad enough she needed the ICU (i.e. non-COVID-related). She ended up needing more advanced care than Chickasha was able to provide, but none of the hospitals in Oklahoma City or Norman (closer to where my coworker lives) would accept the transfer. She ended up being sent to Lawton instead. Even that was kind of touch-and-go for a while and there had been talk of Wichita Falls being the backup plan.

Wichita Falls reports 12 ICU beds available today in its region.  That might seem like an abundance in normal times for a rural area, but in these times a number like that could evaporate.  In Texas, we have over 5,000 ventilators available, but much less ICU capacity, because you can't make an ICU bed just by plugging in a ventilator.  ICU patients are labor intensive, and you need doctors and nurses to monitor them constantly.  The last time I saw a report on the matter, a minority of ICU patients were covid patients, but it doesn't matter why they're taking up space, because when that space is taken, it's taken.  When people who need that space can't get it, things can go bad quickly.

[SEWIGuy]

**Shut the whole country down for six weeks

That will kill many more people thru suicide, neglected care, lack of care for many medical issues, along with causing likely widespread rioting.

No it wouldn't.  Not even close.  Even if you doubled the number of annual sucides (just shy of 50,000) you wouldn't come close to the figure who have died from Covid.

I love that you cherry pick one part of my complaint. I have a relative that died because deferred "non-essential" care not being done (a surgery that was delayed) resulted in their death. That is one more person than I know that died of Covid-19. Take your totalitarian dystopia porn somewhere else...

Are you really that intellectually dishonest or dumb to think your anecdotal stories are representative of larger trends?  Fine.  I had a friend's son die of Covid.  Guess what is happening more frequenetly? 

[SEWIGuy]

Personally I'm not convinced that the actual mortality rate isn't closer to something like 0.5%. In any circumstance there is no way to truly know how many real world cases are, but there definitely far more than what is confirmed.  At the end of the day the mortality rate will really just end up being a projection like it has been in past pandemics.  To that end there seems to be a lot of shock value on "confirmed cases."   Confirmation of cases doesn't really have much weight compared to things like ICU hospitalizations and fatality statistics. 

So we say "Covid-related"?  Isn't like saying Rock Hudson didn't die of AIDS?  Or are you suggesting hospitals are falsely reporting people dying of heart attacks or leukemia as having Covid-19?

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death

Yes, someone here at least blatantly lied in this case.

George Floyd was also positive for Covid-19, and I guarantee Minnesota listed him as a Covid related death.

Wrong again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/us/george-floyd-independent-autopsy/index.html

[SEWIGuy]

I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

[jeffandnicole]

I love how the skeptics talking points have evolved over the last few weeks:

First it was..."Case counts really don't matter.  Testing is just increasing.  Hospitalizations are what matters."

Then it was..."Sure more are in the hospitals, but they are young and we are treating them better."

Now its..."These people aren't really dying of Covid."

Almost other western country has figured this out.  It's a deadly pandemic which requires a significant societal response.  The longer we delay that response, the longer it will take for us to get things someone back to normal.  Constantly minimizing or ignoring it, won't magically make it go away.

Bingo. People that are against something constantly hang on to the newest reason that they heard on the internet, even when it contradicts their previous reasoning.

[US71]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

[jeffandnicole]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

[US71]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.

[kalvado]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.

Well... A somewhat similar scenario in the norheast: government requires people drive 65 MPH on a certain I-xx. There are penalties for going 66.
A lot of people believe that is a stupid one, and a drive 80+ on a said highway outside rush hour. Police has heavy presence, enforcing... I believe 85 is when they care.
Pretty similar logic if you think about it.

[jeffandnicole]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.

Toasting a virtual Busch Light to you. Cheers!

[jeffandnicole]

Addendum to the Arkansas Mask Law: apparently it will be up to individual counties to enforce it and some county sheriffs are saying they will NOT because it infringes on their rights.

I'd like to know what rights they're talking about.  In that case, wearing shirts and shoes infringes on people's rights as well.

I've never understood Redneck Logic.

Well... A somewhat similar scenario in the norheast: government requires people drive 65 MPH on a certain I-xx. There are penalties for going 66.
A lot of people believe that is a stupid one, and a drive 80+ on a said highway outside rush hour. Police has heavy presence, enforcing... I believe 85 is when they care.
Pretty similar logic if you think about it.

Completely disagree.

Some of those roads are easier to drive over 80 mph during rush hour when you get a good pack of traffic doing this same. 

[J N Winkler]

George Floyd was also positive for Covid-19, and I guarantee Minnesota listed him as a Covid related death.

Wrong again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/us/george-floyd-independent-autopsy/index.html

To be clear, I have not seen George Floyd's death certificate or whatever guidance Minnesota is issuing to physicians who have to certify cause of death, but his autopsy report is available online and notes that his positive test for covid-19 was on April 3 while his death was on May 25.  Other sources (cited in his Wikipedia article) describe him as having recovered after a few weeks.  I'd be skeptical that his death certificate lists covid-19 even under the "other significant conditions" section.

[US71]

(Reuters) - George Floyd, whose fatal encounter with Minneapolis police stirred a global outcry over racial bias by U.S. law enforcement, tested positive for the coronavirus, his autopsy showed, but the infection was not listed as a factor in his death". (emphasis added)

[tradephoric]

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).

[Scott5114]

Well, okay then. Everything's safe and sound cause tradephoric said so. I'm gonna go have everyone at work cough on me in celebration. Ciao!

[Roadgeekteen]

A new ad from Priorities Action shows the latest USA coronavirus cases compared to other countries.  The issue is these numbers aren't adjusted for population or the amount of testing done per capita.  The reality is France, Italy, and Spain all have higher fatality rates from the virus than America does.  The fact that those countries were ineffective at stopping the spread of the virus back in March - which led to incredible numbers of European deaths but ultimately low case counts today -  shouldn't be used as a political talking point just to make America look bad.  The high case count America is seeing now is proof that the country was successful in delaying the spread of the virus through much of the country back in March (unlike France, Italy, and Spain).

I guess all 50 states should open up then! Let's mass gather and celebrate!

[tradephoric]

A major tornado blew through Europe in March.

A major tornado blew through America in July.

Should we only look at July power outage data to determine how many residents are without power?  Doesn't seem like a very fair comparison.