Coronavirus pandemic

[Eth]

[attacks on people's intelligence]

[attacks on people's intelligence]

Let's just ignore both of them and move on. Trying to discuss anything here with either of them is pointless.

[tradephoric]

The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

Uh. No.  That's simply not the case.  If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

How could you anecdotally even say that?  It makes so sense.

It's like you know the names of statistics, but have no idea what they mean.

I don't understand the logic that "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it [the virus] is more widespread".   Increasing daily positive tests since April is largely an indication of how much more testing is being done.  My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).  I don't disagree that we have seen a recent spike in infections upon states reopening (evidenced by the recent increase in test positivity rate and hospitalizations) but this Summer spike isn't as bad as the spike we saw in the Spring.

[kphoger]

OK, Mr. Braniak, without googling it - your comments on D614G?

It's not relevant to my point.

How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.

I gotta admit:  I'm not sure how D614G is pertinent to your point either.  Not sure what kalvado was getting at.

[NWI_Irish96]

The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

Uh. No.  That's simply not the case.  If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

How could you anecdotally even say that?  It makes so sense.

It's like you know the names of statistics, but have no idea what they mean.

I don't understand the logic that "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it [the virus] is more widespread".   Increasing daily positive tests since April is largely an indication of how much more testing is being done.  My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).  I don't disagree that we have seen a recent spike in infections upon states reopening (evidenced by the recent increase in test positivity rate and hospitalizations) but this Summer spike isn't as bad as the spike we saw in the Spring.

Nobody is saying that the virus is more widespread than it was at its April peak (though it's getting very close). We are saying that the virus is more widespread, by a lot, than it was when lockdowns were ended in May, and the hospitalization rates support that.

You insist on ignoring that reality and circling back around to testing rates.

[webny99]

How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.

I gotta admit:  I'm not sure how D614G is pertinent to your point either.  Not sure what kalvado was getting at.

If he knows so much about the virus, and has the "only" correct opinion, it should be easy for him to tell us all about D614G.

[kalvado]

Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.

Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

Because it is the correct one.

How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.

So, still - what makes you feel you're entitled for an opinion?

[kphoger]

My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).

[SEWIGuy]

The virus is less widespread in this country today than it was back in April.  We just think the virus is so much worse because the daily numbers are so high (due to the fact we are testing 7x more people today than we were back in April). 

Uh. No.  That's simply not the case.  If the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it is more widespread.

How could you anecdotally even say that?  It makes so sense.

It's like you know the names of statistics, but have no idea what they mean.

I don't understand the logic that "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that it [the virus] is more widespread".   Increasing daily positive tests since April is largely an indication of how much more testing is being done.  My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).  I don't disagree that we have seen a recent spike in infections upon states reopening (evidenced by the recent increase in test positivity rate and hospitalizations) but this Summer spike isn't as bad as the spike we saw in the Spring.

So let's use the graph you have there.  So around April 1, 150,000 or so people were tested with a 25% positivity rate.  37,500.  Now you have 750,000 tests at an 8% positivity.  56,000

On top of that, those figures have to be added to people who tested positive for the disease and are still not recovered.  If you do that, there are hundreds of thousands of more cases now.  It is simply much more widespread than it was in April.  And it's not even close.  And those are just the people who have been tested!

You simply do not understand how to interpret data.

[SEWIGuy]

Attacking the intelligence level of someone who disagrees with them is a way for people to avoid forming their own arguments.  These people should be ignored.

Go ahead and ignore me.  Won't bother me any.

But anyway, my arguments are well stated.  I will continue to ridicule those who ignore science.

But you often attack people in this thread who don't agree with your views completely, even when there is room for actual debate.  I don't think many people have seriously come into this thread suggesting that the "virus isn't real"  or no measures shouldn't be taken.  Why does your opinion matter more than everyone else?

Because it is the correct one.

How can someone claim any right to have an opinion on the situation without knowing about D614G is beyond me. The guy who can't interpret such simple data has THE CORRECT opinion....

Uh...I know about D614G.  It wasn't relevant to what we were talking about.  Yet another poor assumption on your part.

So, still - what makes you feel you're entitled for an opinion?

What?

[kphoger]

So let's use the graph you have there.  So around April 1, 150,000 or so people were tested with a 25% positivity rate.  37,500.  Now you have 750,000 tests at an 8% positivity.  56,000

On top of that, those figures have to be added to people who tested positive for the disease and are still not recovered.  If you do that, there are hundreds of thousands of more cases now.  It is simply much more widespread than it was in April.  And it's not even close.  And those are just the people who have been tested!

You simply do not understand how to interpret data.

I don't think counting not-yet-recovered persons is useful in determining how widespread something is.  Spread is intuitively defined has how many new infections are taking place.

What?

I think he's asking why you consider yourself entitled to an opinion but dismiss others' opinions as rubbish.  He used a question about D614G to illustrate that maybe you're not as "expert" and "scientific" as you think you are.  But, as I said earlier, my own opinion is that you were correct in saying D614G is irrelevant to the point you had been making (which was about some recovered patients suffering long-term issues, for those just tuning in)–so I'm not sure why he threw that particular stick in the wheel.  Maybe he took your deflection as ignorance of the topic.

[tradephoric]

So let's use the graph you have there.  So around April 1, 150,000 or so people were tested with a 25% positivity rate.  37,500.  Now you have 750,000 tests at an 8% positivity.  56,000

Your logic is "if the daily positive tests are increasing, it means that the virus is more widespread".  Wouldn't that also mean if daily positive tests are decreasing that the virus is less widespread?  Well then let's just stop testing for the virus!  Zero testing = zero positive cases = zero spread = pandemic over.  Can you see how silly your logic is?

[tradephoric]

My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).

I was just looking at the nationwide overview of hospitalizations from the COVID tracking project. 

https://covidtracking.com/data

No doubt there are states that are seeing big spikes in hospitalizations now, but combined they still don't match the hospitalizations we were seeing in the Northeast in April.  It really goes to show how hard the Northeast was hit in the spring, specifically New York.  At its peak New York was reporting 1,000 deaths a day.  Thank God no other state has gotten anywhere close to those daily death numbers. 

[Roadgeekteen]

My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).

I was just looking at the nationwide overview of hospitalizations from the COVID tracking project. 

https://covidtracking.com/data

No doubt there are states that are seeing big spikes in hospitalizations now, but combined they still don't match the hospitalizations we were seeing in the Northeast in April.  It really goes to show how hard the Northeast was hit in the spring, specifically New York.  At its peak New York was reporting 1,000 deaths a day.  Thank God no other state has gotten anywhere close to those daily death numbers.

States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.

[hotdogPi]

My argument that the virus isn't more widespread today than it was back in April has been consistent... and it's based on the fact that both the nationwide test positivity rate and hospitalizations are down since the peak in the Spring (the only thing that are at new record highs are daily cases... again due to the increase in testing).

Have you looked at statewide hospitalizations, or just nationwide?

In Texas, for example, COVID hospital patients increased from 1878 to 9286 in one month (June 7 to July 7).

I was just looking at the nationwide overview of hospitalizations from the COVID tracking project. 

https://covidtracking.com/data

No doubt there are states that are seeing big spikes in hospitalizations now, but combined they still don't match the hospitalizations we were seeing in the Northeast in April.  It really goes to show how hard the Northeast was hit in the spring, specifically New York.  At its peak New York was reporting 1,000 deaths a day.  Thank God no other state has gotten anywhere close to those daily death numbers.

Comparing states doesn't quite work here. The distribution of the virus in April was much more concentrated in one place than it is now.

No single place is as bad as New York City was in April, but several entire states (LA, MS, AL, FL, SC) are bad, which is a larger population.

[tradephoric]

States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.

I think the only state that has a remote chance of catching NY in total deaths is California.  According to IHME COVID-19 Projections the high end projection for deaths in California is 34,437 by November 1st (in comparison New York has so far reported 32,598 deaths).  It's almost certain that California will overtake New York in total cases though (they already almost have). 

[Roadgeekteen]

States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.

I think the only state that has a remote chance of catching NY in total deaths is California.  According to IHME COVID-19 Projections the high end projection for deaths in California is 34,437 by November 1st (in comparison New York has so far reported 32,598 deaths).  It's almost certain that California will overtake New York in total cases though (they already almost have).

New York also has more people than almost all the other states.

[kalvado]

States will reach NY's deaths if cases don't stop rising.

I think the only state that has a remote chance of catching NY in total deaths is California.  According to IHME COVID-19 Projections the high end projection for deaths in California is 34,437 by November 1st (in comparison New York has so far reported 32,598 deaths).  It's almost certain that California will overtake New York in total cases though (they already almost have).

New York also has more people than almost all the other states.

NY is #4 in population right now, if I remember correctly. 3 more populous states are CA, TX and FL - all the current hot spots. So size will not be deciding factor in case count.

[Scott5114]

Poof go the posts.

This thread is not for insulting other posters, nor is it for talking about how great or shitty your favorite/least favorite elected official is.

I'm starting to think letting a thread on this topic continue was a mistake. Please prove me wrong.

[hotdogPi]

I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

[Scott5114]

I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

I feel so, so sorry for you.

[kphoger]

I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

Same here.

I, for one, will be very disappointed if we all can't keep it civil enough to keep the thread alive.

[Max Rockatansky]

I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

As did I but that was mostly early in the pandemic.  As of late what gets posted here is more opinions more than actual news, but that's kind of how the conversation on COVID everywhere has gone.  As of late I tend to talk about the topic more in private chat groups in the road community.  Those conversations are generally more about actual news pertaining to things like changing local restrictions.  I was kind of surprised to learn how much more restrictive places like NY and New England are compared to what I deal with now. 

To that end, I don't see a reason why this thread can't remain civil.  I think that I missed out on some of what was posted after I left the house, but compared to other topics similar in nature it has been a tame going until recently.   

[jeffandnicole]

I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID news from this thread.

I'm getting quite a lot of my COVID laughs from this thread.

[Scott5114]

If I had the money, I'd buy everyone in here a subscription to an actual news source.

Please don't make this forum be your source for important news like this. It is very bad at that and half of the stuff posted here is wrong. Learn what's going on from somewhere that has actual standards for what's posted.

[Max Rockatansky]

If I had the money, I'd buy everyone in here a subscription to an actual news source.

I really don't think at this point that reading "normal" news sources as a daily or regular thing is even all that healthy habit anymore.  As a general rule I've found that almost all mainstream media in general to be increasingly highly slanted, misleading, or selectively edited.  That's not even a statement about COVID, it's almost like you have to read between the lines on almost every major news story reported these days to get a somewhat accurate picture.  I know stuff like that has always been a thing but it just feels like everyone reports on stories in a hugely sensationalized way regardless of the angle.  It doesn't help that things like the 24 hour TV news cycle and social media really drive the push to get some sort of new content out there.  As someone who works in the Safety world it was really frustrating especially when it was starting to cause panics.