NFL (2024 Season)

[webny99]

I respect the heck out of the decision to go for it on 4th & inches.

I don't. That was just a dumb play call as far as I'm concerned. Going for it there is probably what, a 50% play? Kicking a FG from there gets you three points probably 90% of the time, and then it's extremely unlikely the Titans score again before overtime, which is more or less a toss-up. Plus even if you go for it on that 4th down and get it, you still only have 20 seconds and one timeout, and there's a decent chance you end up kicking the FG anyway to end the half.

The play itself could have been better, obviously, but you should absolutely go for it there. If it works, it's 1st and goal from the two yard line and no one would be questioning it.

https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1450303039194087424

You could argue 75% is a little high, but then there's the fact that Josh Allen was 13 of 14 (93%) on 4th & 1 entering the game.

[JayhawkCO]

I'll just continue to be the contrarian and disagree that it was a bad play call.  I think it was the right play and he just slipped.  If he doesn't, he gets the first down.

Chris

[hotdogPi]

once a Jet, always a Jet.

When I saw this, I thought this was a quote from West Side Story. A Google search in quotes doesn't seem to have the exact phrase as part of the script, though... (though some of the results are still about the play/movie, just not with that phrase)

[JayhawkCO]

I'll just continue to be the contrarian and disagree that it was a bad play call.  I think it was the right play and he just slipped.  If he doesn't, he gets the first down.

Chris

From Twitter:
"Josh Allen is 29 of 32 lifetime on 3rd/4th down QB sneaks.  One of the 3 failures was that game-defining play."

Even more of a reason to have gone for it.

Chris

[wanderer2575]

once a Jet, always a Jet.

When I saw this, I thought this was a quote from West Side Story. A Google search in quotes doesn't seem to have the exact phrase as part of the script, though... (though some of the results are still about the play/movie, just not with that phrase)

"When you're a Jet, you're a Jet all the way
From your first cigarette to your last dyin' day.

"Then you are set, with a capital J,
Which you'll never forget 'til they cart you away.
When you're a Jet, you stay a Jet!"

[thspfc]

Chiefs 39, Titans 30
Packers 42, Washington 20
Ravens 35, Bengals 13
Giants 31, Panthers 26
Dolphins 34, Falcons 27
Patriots 27, Jets 21
Raiders 32, Eagles 28
Rams 27, Lions 6
Buccaneers 27, Bears 0
Cardinals 24, Texans 20
Colts 23, 49ers 19
Saints 20, Seahawks 17

The Buccaneers' #1 ranked run defense + the Bears' #32 ranked passing offense is as obvious of a recipe for a shutout as I've ever seen. This is a trap game for the Cardinals. Coming off a dominating win at Cleveland last week, with Green Bay looming large a week from today. Their talent gets them the win in a game that ends up being way closer than expected. The Giants manage to save Joe Judge's job for at least one more week, though in my opinion he should have been fired immediately after his post-week 17 press conference in January.

[JayhawkCO]

Chiefs 39, Titans 30
Packers 42, Washington 20
Ravens 35, Bengals 13
Giants 31, Panthers 26
Dolphins 34, Falcons 27
Patriots 27, Jets 21
Raiders 32, Eagles 28
Rams 27, Lions 6
Buccaneers 27, Bears 0
Cardinals 24, Texans 20
Colts 23, 49ers 19
Saints 20, Seahawks 17

The Buccaneers' #1 ranked run defense + the Bears' #32 ranked passing offense is as obvious of a recipe for a shutout as I've ever seen. This is a trap game for the Cardinals. Coming off a dominating win at Cleveland last week, with Green Bay looming large a week from today. Their talent gets them the win in a game that ends up being way closer than expected. The Giants manage to save Joe Judge's job for at least one more week, though in my opinion he should have been fired immediately after his post-week 17 press conference in January.

If you give me +22 on the Bengals, I'll throw my house on it.

Chris

[webny99]

Seems pretty likely that we'll have...
Titans>Bills
Bills>Chiefs
Chiefs>Titans

Which leads to an interesting question: Are the Titans a Super Bowl contender? They're probably going to win the terrible AFC South as the #4 seed in the AFC, but I wouldn't say they're one of the four best teams in the conference, even after beating the Bills.

[jlam]

The Broncos tonight vs the Browns will likely get many turnovers. With the trash that is Case Keenum and Von Miller and Justin Simmons on the Broncos Defense, it will be an offensive struggle for the Browns.

[thspfc]

Seems pretty likely that we'll have...
Titans>Bills
Bills>Chiefs
Chiefs>Titans

Which leads to an interesting question: Are the Titans a Super Bowl contender? They're probably going to win the terrible AFC South as the #4 seed in the AFC, but I wouldn't say they're one of the four best teams in the conference, even after beating the Bills.

Agreed, I think the Bills, Ravens, Chargers, and Chiefs (in that order) are the four best in the AFC.

[thspfc]

A third of the way through, my top ten would be:

1. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. Buccaneers
4. Bills
5. Ravens
6. Cowboys
7. Packers
8. Chargers
9. Chiefs
10. Titans

[JayhawkCO]

I think I'd personally switch the Ravens and Cowboys.  Ravens D this year isn't what they've been in the past.  Otherwise I don't disagree a ton.  I might put the Vikings above the Titans.  Partly because they're the only team that has kept it close with Arizona (and should have one) and partly because I am an unashamed homer.

Chris

[thspfc]

I think I'd personally switch the Ravens and Cowboys.  Ravens D this year isn't what they've been in the past.  Otherwise I don't disagree a ton.  I might put the Vikings above the Titans.  Partly because they're the only team that has kept it close with Arizona (and should have one) and partly because I am an unashamed homer.

Chris

I'd say the Vikings are #12, with the Bengals being #11. But there's really not much separation between the Bengals, Vikings, Raiders, Colts, and Seahawks once Wilson gets back. Maybe the Saints but they're really inconsistent.

I think the Colts are on a major upswing - they're getting some players back from injury, Wentz is getting familiar with Reich again, and they've been really solid over the last three weeks with the exception of the fourth quarter against the Ravens. They played a really tough schedule to start the season also.

[webny99]

A third of the way through, my top ten would be:

1. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. Buccaneers
4. Bills
5. Ravens
6. Cowboys
7. Packers
8. Chargers
9. Chiefs
10. Titans

Order them as you wish, but these are a pretty clear top 10 - I feel like much clearer than at this point in previous seasons. These are also only the 10 real Super Bowl contenders IMO (although the Titans could be debated). Interestingly, three of these teams (Cowboys, Cardinals and Chargers) didn't even make the playoffs last year.

That's also at least one team from each division, so you're basically looking at the likely division winners plus the 2nd place teams in the AFC/NFC West.

If you assume that these ten all make the playoffs, that leaves two spots in each conference up for grabs. I'd probably go Raiders and either Browns/Bengals in the AFC (or sure, maybe even the Colts, reading your previous post), and Vikings/Saints in the NFC, although both are so unpredictable that I could see the 49ers or Seahawks getting things turned around enough to grab the #7 seed.

But I would say that basically every other team is still in the playoff mix, at least on the fringes, except for the Jets, Jaguars, Lions, and Texans. And I guess the Giants and Dolphins are pretty much out of it as well, at 1-5 it's just not their year even though both had potential coming into the season.

[Alps]

A third of the way through, my top ten would be:

1. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. Buccaneers
4. Bills
5. Ravens
6. Cowboys
7. Packers
8. Chargers
9. Chiefs
10. Titans

Titans are ruled out by virtue of losing to the Jets

[thspfc]

A third of the way through, my top ten would be:

1. Rams
2. Cardinals
3. Buccaneers
4. Bills
5. Ravens
6. Cowboys
7. Packers
8. Chargers
9. Chiefs
10. Titans

Order them as you wish, but these are a pretty clear top 10 - I feel like much clearer than at this point in previous seasons. These are also only the 10 real Super Bowl contenders IMO (although the Titans could be debated). Interestingly, three of these teams (Cowboys, Cardinals and Chargers) didn't even make the playoffs last year.

That's also at least one team from each division, so you're basically looking at the likely division winners plus the 2nd place teams in the AFC/NFC West.

If you assume that these ten all make the playoffs, that leaves two spots in each conference up for grabs. I'd probably go Raiders and either Browns/Bengals in the AFC (or sure, maybe even the Colts, reading your previous post), and Vikings/Saints in the NFC, although both are so unpredictable that I could see the 49ers or Seahawks getting things turned around enough to grab the #7 seed.

But I would say that basically every other team is still in the playoff mix, at least on the fringes, except for the Jets, Jaguars, Lions, and Texans. And I guess the Giants and Dolphins are pretty much out of it as well, at 1-5 it's just not their year even though both had potential coming into the season.

I put the Rams over the Cardinals because they're a more complete and experienced team, with a better chance of winning the Super Bowl. It feels like last year when I kept putting Clemson over Notre Dame in my college football rankings even after ND beat Clemson, and Clemson ended up destroying them the second time they faced each other.

Even as a Cowboys fan, I don't think the Cowboys defense is as good as people believe. They're giving up a lot of yards and big plays, especially through the air. The Cowboys offense, on the other hand, is the most well-rounded offense in the league, with a great QB, solid offensive line, two starting-caliber RBs, three very solid WRs (one of whom has been injured most of the season thus far), and a solid TE.

Similarly to 2019, the Packers aren't firing on all cylinders, but they're still winning. They're heavily reliant on the Rodgers to Adams connection.

I think there's 8 legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now: the teams that I have ranked 1-7 plus the Chiefs. Right now the Chargers are better than the Chiefs, but I'm not about to say that the team that has been to back-to-back SBs is not a contender.

[webny99]

I think there's 8 legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now: the teams that I have ranked 1-7 plus the Chiefs. Right now the Chargers are better than the Chiefs, but I'm not about to say that the team that has been to back-to-back SBs is not a contender.

But doesn't that mean that the Chargers are also a legitimate contender? They beat the Chiefs, and they have to be favorites or at least co-favorites to win the division.

[thspfc]

I think there's 8 legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now: the teams that I have ranked 1-7 plus the Chiefs. Right now the Chargers are better than the Chiefs, but I'm not about to say that the team that has been to back-to-back SBs is not a contender.

But doesn't that mean that the Chargers are also a legitimate contender? They beat the Chiefs, and they have to be favorites or at least co-favorites to win the division.

The Titans beat the Bills, who are legit contenders, and they're obvious favorites to win their division. Contenders?

[webny99]

I think there's 8 legitimate Super Bowl contenders right now: the teams that I have ranked 1-7 plus the Chiefs. Right now the Chargers are better than the Chiefs, but I'm not about to say that the team that has been to back-to-back SBs is not a contender.

But doesn't that mean that the Chargers are also a legitimate contender? They beat the Chiefs, and they have to be favorites or at least co-favorites to win the division.

The Titans beat the Bills, who are legit contenders, and they're obvious favorites to win their division. Contenders?

It's debatable - in fact this whole conversation started with me saying exactly that. They beat the Bills, but also lost to the Jets. They're right there with the Vikings and Saints as the top 3 most unpredictable teams in the league.

But that's not apples-to-apples with the Chiefs and Chargers, because the Titans aren't in the same division as the Bills. The Bills and Titans can both win their division. The Chiefs and Chargers can't, so you can't really say one is a contender and one isn't when either one could win the division.

[JayhawkCO]

It's debatable - in fact this whole conversation started with me saying exactly that. They beat the Bills, but also lost to the Jets. They're right there with the Vikings and Saints as the top 3 most unpredictable teams in the league.

But that's not apples-to-apples with the Chiefs and Chargers, because the Titans aren't in the same division as the Bills. The Bills and Titans can both win their division. The Chiefs and Chargers can't, so you can't really say one is a contender and one isn't when either one could win the division.

I don't think the Vikings are particularly unpredictable.  We just "Vikings" games at the end of the games because it's in our genes apparently.  Our offense and defense have actually been fairly consistent all year.  The three games we lost were a dubious fumble against the Bengals, a missed game winning 37 yard FG against the Bengals, and then admittedly a not great offensive performance (the D still played fine) against the Browns.  Cook was still nursing a sore ankle too in that game (not that that's an excuse).

The Saints go from crushing the Packers Week 1 looking like world beaters to not being able to move the ball on a week to week basis.

Chris

[webny99]

I don't think the Vikings are particularly unpredictable.  We just "Vikings" games at the end of the games because it's in our genes apparently.  Our offense and defense have actually been fairly consistent all year.  The three games we lost were a dubious fumble against the Bengals, a missed game winning 37 yard FG against the Bengals, and then admittedly a not great offensive performance (the D still played fine) against the Browns.  Cook was still nursing a sore ankle too in that game (not that that's an excuse).

It's a different type of unpredictable than the Saints, to be sure... but I would still put them in that category along with the Saints and Titans in terms of being able to beat or lose to literally any team in the league.

If you think about it this way, the Vikings are the only reason we have a 6-0 team and an 0-6 team remaining in the league. If they make the Cardinals field goal and miss the Lions one, there would be 0 winless and 0 undefeated teams remaining. That's literally as extreme as it gets in terms of being able to beat or lose to anyone.

[jlam]

I don't think the Vikings are particularly unpredictable.  We just "Vikings" games at the end of the games because it's in our genes apparently.  Our offense and defense have actually been fairly consistent all year.  The three games we lost were a dubious fumble against the Bengals, a missed game winning 37 yard FG against the Bengals, and then admittedly a not great offensive performance (the D still played fine) against the Browns.  Cook was still nursing a sore ankle too in that game (not that that's an excuse).

It's a different type of unpredictable than the Saints, to be sure... but I would still put them in that category along with the Saints and Titans in terms of being able to beat or lose to literally any team in the league.

If you think about it this way, the Vikings are the only reason we have a 6-0 team and an 0-6 team remaining in the league. If they make the Cardinals field goal and miss the Lions one, there would be 0 winless and 0 undefeated teams remaining. That's literally as extreme as it gets in terms of being able to beat or lose to anyone.

Thank the Ravens instead of the Vikings for the winless Lions.

[wanderer2575]

An installment of the comic strip Frazz by Jef Mallet, circa 2006.  Still applicable today.

[webny99]

The Lions are a very entertaining 0-7 team. I really, really wanted them to beat the Rams today. And it really looked like it was going to happen, too... for 3 quarters.

Their only blowout loss has been to the Bengals, who delivered a statement win of their own today. Bengals atop the AFC North in Week 7... who saw that coming? 

[thspfc]

The Lions are 0-7, yet they're clearly only the 3rd worst team in the league after the Texans and Jets. Plus there's also the Dolphins and Jaguars, though I still think the Dolphins are going to get to at least 6 wins - Tua has quietly been pretty solid so far, going 32/40 for 291 yards and 4 TDs. If he makes sure to not turn it over in key situations, I think he could be a top 12 QB by the end of this year.

I will admit, I thought for about a week in late September that Sam Darnold was really making a turnaround and becoming a solid franchise QB. Silly me. In hindsight, trading for Sam Darnold and thinking that he could make something out of this Panthers team ruined their season, and now they're right back into the rebuilding lottery before they really even left. Bad times to be a Panthers fan.

Not going to bail on the Chiefs quite yet. The Titans, Cowboys, and Buccaneers are the only teams in the league that have offenses capable of controlling time of possession the way that Tennessee did yesterday.

That was an impressive result for the Bengals, but they're still 28th in the league in first downs per game. Over-reliance on the downfield bomb to Ja'Marr Chase will be what hurts them the most in the end.