NFL (2024 Season)

[thspfc]

I disagree with your Bills-Colts pick, not because I think the Colts can't win, but because it seems highly improbable that the score will be identical to their final score last week...

This is the same fallacy where someone doesn't think the correct answer on a test will appear 3 times in a row, or the same lottery number won't appear twice in a row.  Last week's score has absolutely no effect on this week's game.

Of course it doesn't... but also, when was the last time a team had the same final score two weeks in a row? There are a lot more potential game scores than there are answers on a multiple choice test. The odds of it happening have to be inestimably small even if there's no direct bearing of one on the other.

The odds of the game ending 23-17 are larger than the odds of the game ending in the vast majority of other past NFL scores. 23-17 is one of the most common scorlines. The score of the previous Colts game does not change anything. In case you haven't noticed, I haven't been exactly correct on a score even one time this season, and while I'm by no means an expert, that still shows how unlikely ANY predicted score is to happen in that game, period.

If anything, the Colts winning 23-17 in week 10 could be a very small indicator of their tendencies/skill level on offense and defense, making it slightly more likely that their next game will end in that scoreline. Of course, I don't believe that a team has played to back-to-back identical scorlines this season or anytime in my memory, but that doesn't mean that there's anything to that fact.

So the bottom line is, webny99's post doesn't make any sense.

[NWI_Irish96]

So, looks like we need a probability 101 lesson here. Things like lottery numbers are independent events. The previous outcome has absolutely zero impact on the probability of the next outcome.

Football scores are, to a certain extent, dependent events. Teams achieve certain scores because of their abilities, so unless last week's score was a total outlier, that score is at least somewhat MORE likely to occur than the average outcome. Add on top of that 23-17 is a fairly common outcome in football and back to back 23-17 scores is not terribly unlikely.

[thspfc]

-Washington's 19-play, 80-yard drive that took 10:26 of game clock and ended with a 4th down Gibson TD run to end the Buc's chances at a comeback was the most impressive drive of the season and it's not even close. You know everyone was waiting to say "they left too much time for Brady!" but the Bucs defense just could not get off the field.

Had the 49ers ended their 20-play, 13-minute drive just now against the Jags with a touchdown, it might have taken the top spot. But no, that deadly Shanahan offense kicked a field goal on 4th & 1 from the 2 yard line.

[CoreySamson]

Hey, there we go! We actually got a win today! Granted, it was very ugly, but a win's a win. Nice prediction, thspfc.

Some fast facts:

- Tyrod Taylor's first rushing touchdown of the day was the Texan's first road touchdown in two months.
- The Texans had a +5 turnover differential and were outgained by 230 yards (I wonder if a team has ever done both of those in a game before), and still won 22-13.
- The Texans now have a 2-1 record against division opponents.
- The Texans went 3-and-out 6 times.

[1995hoo]

So Miami beat Houston, thereby passing "Football Team" back to where it began the season and taking "Jaguars" from Houston. First time "Football Team" went back to a prior holder.

Houston beats Tennessee. Houston Titans (how amusing, in view of NFL history) and Tennessee Football Team.

[webny99]

-Washington's 19-play, 80-yard drive that took 10:26 of game clock and ended with a 4th down Gibson TD run to end the Buc's chances at a comeback was the most impressive drive of the season and it's not even close. You know everyone was waiting to say "they left too much time for Brady!" but the Bucs defense just could not get off the field.

Had the 49ers ended their 20-play, 13-minute drive just now against the Jags with a touchdown, it might have taken the top spot. But no, that deadly Shanahan offense kicked a field goal on 4th & 1 from the 2 yard line.

But context matters, and in this case the context HEAVILY favors Washington, regardless of whether the 49ers score a TD there.

[thspfc]

Every team now has at least three losses.

Buffalo is the most inconsistent team ever. Mind-blowing. The only team worth anything that they've beaten is Kansas City, and that was early on. Today they are officially removed from my Super Bowl contenders list. That list now contains the Patriots, Colts, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Rams.

It appears jayhawkco's picks have beat mine this week, unless the Seahawks figure it out. I will still wear my "predicted the Texans to beat the Titans"  badge for the rest of the season.

[thspfc]

-Washington's 19-play, 80-yard drive that took 10:26 of game clock and ended with a 4th down Gibson TD run to end the Buc's chances at a comeback was the most impressive drive of the season and it's not even close. You know everyone was waiting to say "they left too much time for Brady!" but the Bucs defense just could not get off the field.

Had the 49ers ended their 20-play, 13-minute drive just now against the Jags with a touchdown, it might have taken the top spot. But no, that deadly Shanahan offense kicked a field goal on 4th & 1 from the 2 yard line.

But context matters, and in this case the context HEAVILY favors Washington, regardless of whether the 49ers score a TD there.

That's true.

[JayhawkCO]

Every team now has at least three losses.

Buffalo is the most inconsistent team ever. Mind-blowing. The only team worth anything that they've beaten is Kansas City, and that was early on. Today they are officially removed from my Super Bowl contenders list. That list now contains the Patriots, Colts, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Rams.

It appears jayhawkco's picks have beat mine this week, unless the Seahawks figure it out. I will still wear my "predicted the Texans to beat the Titans"  badge for the rest of the season.

And that was indeed a hell of a pick.

[Alps]

Every team now has at least three losses.

Cards are 9-2 still

[thspfc]

Every team now has at least three losses.

Cards are 9-2 still

Ah, right. I've kind of forgotten about them ever since Kyler got hurt, but they've got two big divisional wins without him. Impressive.

[webny99]

Buffalo is the most inconsistent team ever. Mind-blowing. The only team worth anything that they've beaten is Kansas City, and that was early on. Today they are officially removed from my Super Bowl contenders list. That list now contains the Patriots, Colts, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Rams.

Yeah, they are STILL sitting there with the Lions and Texans as the only teams without a one-score win this season. They had a chance to be all alone, but of course the Texans got another two-score win (barely, as they won by 9), and the Lions had another close loss.

Here's the Bills' season in one sentence: They're 1-3 against the AFC South, while outscoring them 92-84. That should be 2-2 in the absolute worst-case scenario... but they somehow found a way to lose three of those games.

What frustrates me about this week in particular is the defensive game plan. The Bills CAN stop the run if they commit to it. They've done it to the Ravens twice, including in the playoffs last season. But they obviously didn't take the Colts' run game seriously, and Jonathan Taylor goes off for over 200 total yards and 5 TD's. So frustrating.

I'll check back in after Thanksgiving in terms of the Bills' Super Bowl aspirations. This is their third straight season in which they had one - and only one - blowout loss. 2019 was to the Eagles, 2020 was to the Titans. So I give them one per season, but if they get blown out again, I might have to reassess.
Obviously, the two games against the Patriots are going to be MASSIVE. The "Pats are back!" narratives are already getting out of control, with their first showdown with the Bills in two weeks on MNF. Ahhhh! I'm starting to hyperventilate just thinking about it! Undoubtedly the most important regular season game in Bills franchise history, and it's not remotely close.

It appears jayhawkco's picks have beat mine this week, unless the Seahawks figure it out. I will still wear my "predicted the Texans to beat the Titans"  badge for the rest of the season.

And that was indeed a hell of a pick.

Titans are now 7-0 against playoff teams from last year, but 1-3 against non-playoff teams. 
Certainly up there in terms of being inconsistent, but I maintain that they stole a win from the Saints last week... it was even more egregious than the Steelers' win over the Bears, and that's saying something.

[thspfc]

Obviously, the two games against the Patriots are going to be MASSIVE. The "Pats are back!" narratives are already getting out of control, with their first showdown with the Bills in two weeks on MNF. Ahhhh! I'm starting to hyperventilate just thinking about it! Undoubtedly the most important regular season game in Bills franchise history, and it's not remotely close.

I feel like I underreact to breakout teams more than I overreact, and even I think that there's a ton to like about the Patriots right now. They've given up one touchdown and 13 points in their last three games. Since you're a big point differential guy, they're a ridiculous +125 over their last five games (+123 on the season). And I think they're even better than their 7-4 record indicates. A quick analysis of their four losses:

- By a point to the Dolphins (with Tua), in Jones' first game, with tons of brand new pieces on both sides of the ball playing in their first game together. All things considered that's not that bad of a loss.

- Saints game, that one was ugly, but worth noting that it was probably the first time in his career that Jones faced a pass rush that could consistently penetrate his offensive line.

- On a doink to the Bucs

- In overtime to the Cowboys

They're forcing a ton of turnovers on defense. They've embarrassed Justin Herbert, (Sam Darnold), Baker, and Matt Ryan in their last four games. And it's not like they're conceding a lot of first downs and then bailing themselves out with turnovers (a.k.a. what the Cowboys have been doing); their last four opponents are averaging less than 250 yards of offense per game.

Obviously the concern is whether Mac Jones can lead the team to victory in a game where the defense doesn't play great, or they fall behind, or things just aren't going well in general. So far he hasn't shown that he can, but one day he will. The question is whether that's in two weeks or in two years.

[thspfc]

Oh, by the way, the Chiefs have given up a total of 30 points in their last 3 games.

The narrative is that the Chiefs offense is "back". It can't be back, because it never left. With the exception of the Titans game and the Chargers game to an extent, defense was always the problem. I mentioned in this thread after the Chiefs/Titans game that the Titans, Buccaneers, and Cowboys are the only teams in the league capable of dominating time of possession against Kansas City, and dominating time of possession is probably the best way to beat the Chiefs. Most people will look at only 19 points against a mediocre Cowboys defense as a bad outing; I disagree, because they outgained the Cowboys, picked up more first downs than the Cowboys, and controlled time of possession. Against one of the best offenses in the league, an offense that can beat you in so many different ways, and can first-down and time-of-possession you to death. It was the same way the Broncos beat the Cowboys two weeks ago. Both the Broncos and Chiefs came up with big drives when they needed them. Neither of the Chiefs' last two drives ended in points, but more importantly, they ate a combined 8:30 off the clock.

Right now the Chiefs are my Super Bowl pick. Just as they were at the beginning of the season. But what I saw today from both their offense and defense makes me feel the most confident that I have felt about it.

As for my Cowboys, not much to say, just got beaten pretty good.

[thspfc]

Serious cracks in the drywall appearing in Cleveland. Baker skipped his media conference yesterday, and his wife ranted on social media about how his teammates - the same teammates who fooled people into thinking that Baker is a top 12 quarterback - need to "get tougher" . And of course, Cleveland's fans and media would defend Baker if he turned into Henry Ruggs ("so many dropped passes" , "he's injured" , "something something OBJ something" ). There are some  parallels to the 2019 Browns, who were 5-6 and at this exact point in the playoff race at this time.

[webny99]

Wowwww... we got another 2 game of the year candidates yesterday with Packers-Vikings and Steelers-Chargers.

At least four of the Chargers' six wins (Chiefs, Browns, Eagles, Steelers) are games that previous Chargers teams would have blown (and to be clear, they did blow it last night in embarrassing fashion, but they still got the win) so even though their offense has struggled at times this season, I think you have to say the coaching change has been a big success on balance.

[webny99]

And of course, Cleveland's fans and media would defend Baker if he turned into Henry Ruggs ("so many dropped passes" , "he's injured" , "something something OBJ something" ). There are some  parallels to the 2019 Browns, who were 5-6 and at this exact point in the playoff race at this time.

I get where you're coming from, but that is still a little extreme. It's easy to forget what a complete train wreck they were before drafting Baker. Even if he's not one of the best QB's in the league, he's still an improvement over what they had for most of the century before him.

But of course they are built to win now, so I think they take a hard look at moving on from Baker if they miss the playoffs. In a weird scheduling quirk they've got Ravens>BYE>Ravens the next three weeks. The Ravens have some really great wins, but they haven't looked like world-beaters this season, so those two games will tell us a lot about where the Browns are at.

[webny99]

Obviously, the two games against the Patriots are going to be MASSIVE. The "Pats are back!" narratives are already getting out of control, with their first showdown with the Bills in two weeks on MNF. Ahhhh! I'm starting to hyperventilate just thinking about it! Undoubtedly the most important regular season game in Bills franchise history, and it's not remotely close.

I feel like I underreact to breakout teams more than I overreact, and even I think that there's a ton to like about the Patriots right now. They've given up one touchdown and 13 points in their last three games. Since you're a big point differential guy, they're a ridiculous +125 over their last five games (+123 on the season). And I think they're even better than their 7-4 record indicates. A quick analysis of their four losses:

...

- On a doink to the Bucs

...

Obviously the concern is whether Mac Jones can lead the team to victory in a game where the defense doesn't play great, or they fall behind, or things just aren't going well in general. So far he hasn't shown that he can, but one day he will. The question is whether that's in two weeks or in two years.

Yeah, and that's exactly why this MNF game is so huge.

I maintain that they still would have lost to the Bucs even if they made that field goal, but in any case, yeah, they have not been blown out all season unless you count the Saints game. But neither had the Bills until yesterday - both teams have 3 close losses and 1 not close loss - which is why it feels strange to say the Patriots have been more consistent team all season but it's undoubtedly the case.

[JayhawkCO]

Of the Vikings' 10 games, 8 have been decided by the last play.

[webny99]

A look at the projected playoff picture through 11 weeks:



Saints and Eagles are still right there in the NFC with the Panthers and Washington also on the fringe. The entire AFC North is still in the mix too, but it is starting to look like we might only have 1 playoff team from that division after having 3 last year.




Below I'm starting a list of teams that are, to use an Around the NFL term, "forked" (out of the playoff picture). The idea is to be aggressive and fork a team early, well before they're mathematically eliminated, and to get all 18 forks correct before the final week of the season.

Before this week, the unstated (but fairly obvious) list:
Jets, Texans, Jaguars, Lions, Dolphins

Added to the list today after a "season-ending" loss this week:
Bears, Seahawks

[thspfc]

My forked list prior to the season was:

I feel very confident saying that the Jets, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Broncos, Eagles, Lions, and Panthers will not make the playoffs. In fact I would be shocked if any of those eight made it.

I'm going to subtract the Bengals and Eagles from that list, and add the Raiders, Browns, Giants, Football Team, Bears, and Saints.

The Dolphins are 2.5 games out of playoff position. Their remaining schedule is:

vs Panthers
vs Giants
vs Jets
at Saints
at Titans
vs Patriots

Tua is back, and he's playing a lot better than people give him credit for. Their defense has given up 12 points/game over the last three weeks. They can easily win their next four games to get to 8-7. After that if they win one out of their last two, which is doable considering that the Titans and/or Patriots may have clinched their respective divisions by then, they're 9-8 and right in the thick of it.

Browns remaining schedule:

at Ravens
vs Ravens (ick, NFL needs to make sure this doesn't happen again)
vs Raiders
at Packers
at Steelers
vs Bengals

There are no free wins there. With Baker playing badly, the defense slumping, and a lot of drama, I don't see them going any better than 2-4 down the stretch.

I would be surprised if the Bears manage to finish with more than four wins.

Raiders have checked out.

Saints have too many injuries.

I expect the Giants and Football Team to improve down the stretch, but if they can't at least beat out the Eagles for second in the division, they have no chance. Even if either of them do get second in the East, they're probably still out.

[webny99]

My forked list prior to the season was:

I feel very confident saying that the Jets, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Broncos, Eagles, Lions, and Panthers will not make the playoffs. In fact I would be shocked if any of those eight made it.

I'm going to subtract the Bengals and Eagles from that list, and add the Raiders, Browns, Giants, Football Team, Bears, and Saints.

Leaving the Broncos and Panthers on the list? I'm a hold on both for now, but I respect it.

The Dolphins are 2.5 games out of playoff position. Their remaining schedule is:
...
Tua is back, and he's playing a lot better than people give him credit for. Their defense has given up 12 points/game over the last three weeks. They can easily win their next four games to get to 8-7. After that if they win one out of their last two, which is doable considering that the Titans and/or Patriots may have clinched their respective divisions by then, they're 9-8 and right in the thick of it.

Sure, I think the Dolphins could easily stack some wins and get to 8-9, maybe even 9-8. But they'll have to win out and finish 10-7 to have a shot at the playoffs. I don't think 9-8 is going to cut it.

I'm a hold on the Browns, but definitely forking them if they get swept by the Ravens.

[NWI_Irish96]

Below I'm starting a list of teams that are, to use an Around the NFL term, "forked" (out of the playoff picture). The idea is to be aggressive and fork a team early, well before they're mathematically eliminated, and to get all 18 forks correct before the final week of the season.

Before this week, the unstated (but fairly obvious) list:
Jets, Texans, Jaguars, Lions, Dolphins

Added to the list today after a "season-ending" loss this week:
Bears, Seahawks

Since Aaron Rodgers can only beat the Bears in the NFC Championship game and not anybody else, the Packers are now eliminated from Super Bowl contention.

[LM117]

Giants just gave Jason Garrett the boot.

https://www.giants.com/news/jason-garrett-relieved-of-duties-as-offensive-coordinator-new-york-giants

[plain]

Giants just gave Jason Garrett the boot.

https://www.giants.com/news/jason-garrett-relieved-of-duties-as-offensive-coordinator-new-york-giants

Shiiiiiiit we need to give Gettleman the boot.