Principal cities of 2100?

[mgk920]

The Great Lakes region is going to see a huge boom once water shortages really start to hit. Mark my words, Chicago will be bigger than LA again by 2100.

I'm not that on board with worries regarding the looming new Ice Age, but I do see long term problems with water in the southwestern USA based on supply v. demand and the fact that there is a treaty between Canada and the USA that prohibits the diversion of water from the Great Lakes drainage basin to points west.  Within the past few weeks there was an agreement that was finalized that allows the City of Waukesha, WI to buy filtered/treated Lake Michigan tap water from the City of Milwaukee, WI (the former is a suburb of the latter) - the complicating matter being that the Eastern Continental Divide passes between them and thus that treaty is in full effect.  Part of the agreement requires that treated wastewater from Waukesha must then be returned across that divide into Lake Michigan.

I also see the Fox Valley region of Wisconsin (Green Bay to Oshkosh, my home metro) continuing its growth and becoming a more major agglomeration, possibly enough to collectively make that list.

Mike

[Road Hog]

The Great Lakes region is going to see a huge boom once water shortages really start to hit. Mark my words, Chicago will be bigger than LA again by 2100.

I expect quantum leaps in desalination technology to be made in the next 80 years out of necessity.

[Revive 755]

Mark my words, Chicago will be bigger than LA again by 2100.

Lately I am beginning to think Chicago may take a turn like Detroit and St. Louis in the next couple of years.  There was a story on WBBM a few weeks back that a number of Chicago residents were looking at housing in the suburbs (partially due to Covid-19 issues).

[NWI_Irish96]

Mark my words, Chicago will be bigger than LA again by 2100.

Lately I am beginning to think Chicago may take a turn like Detroit and St. Louis in the next couple of years.  There was a story on WBBM a few weeks back that a number of Chicago residents were looking at housing in the suburbs (partially due to Covid-19 issues).

Houses in my town priced below $350k sell within a week, often within a day. More expensive houses take a bit longer, but still sell well. Not all are coming from Chicago, but enough to keep the market extremely hot.

[ftballfan]

Mark my words, Chicago will be bigger than LA again by 2100.

Lately I am beginning to think Chicago may take a turn like Detroit and St. Louis in the next couple of years.  There was a story on WBBM a few weeks back that a number of Chicago residents were looking at housing in the suburbs (partially due to Covid-19 issues).

I would say a combination of COVID-19 and high crime could turn parts of Chicago proper into Detroit or St. Louis

[Scott5114]

I'll believe it when I see it. There's an entire industry these days that profits off of people believing that Chicago and California are hellholes, where should you cross the boundary defining them, you will immediately get mugged, your dog will get mugged, you will instantly declare bankruptcy, you will be forced to go to the doctor, your car will be repossessed, you will be forced onto a train, and you'll have to spend time around some guy with a scary-sounding name whose skin color doesn't match your own.

[NWI_Irish96]

I'll believe it when I see it. There's an entire industry these days that profits off of people believing that Chicago and California are hellholes, where should you cross the boundary defining them, you will immediately get mugged, your dog will get mugged, you will instantly declare bankruptcy, you will be forced to go to the doctor, your car will be repossessed, you will be forced onto a train, and you'll have to spend time around some guy with a scary-sounding name whose skin color doesn't match your own.

Declare bankruptcy may be overstating it, but a house 500 feet west of mine with the same value has a 8x higher property tax bill.

[DTComposer]

I think that you have left off a number of cities in Southern California that you mistakenly believe are suburbs of LA. Most people in Orange County and even northern and western LA county do not think of themselves as living in an LA suburb. Also, Stockton, Oakland, Fremont, and San Francisco are not and will not become suburbs of Modesto. San Francisco, isn't on your list, but some city in the Bay Area besides San Jose needs to be. Oakland is not a suburb of San Jose (or San Francisco) any more than Anaheim is a suburb of LA.

Earlier in this thread OP clarified that the listed cities were metros, not cities proper, so by listing San Jose he was considering the whole Bay Area, and by listing Los Angeles he was including Orange County and the Inland Empire.

I'll believe it when I see it. There's an entire industry these days that profits off of people believing that Chicago and California are hellholes, where should you cross the boundary defining them, you will immediately get mugged, your dog will get mugged, you will instantly declare bankruptcy, you will be forced to go to the doctor, your car will be repossessed, you will be forced onto a train, and you'll have to spend time around some guy with a scary-sounding name whose skin color doesn't match your own.

Declare bankruptcy may be overstating it, but a house 500 feet west of mine with the same value has a 8x higher property tax bill.

Can you clarify? From what I could tell for Lake County vs. Cook County, I could find rates that were two to three times as much, but nowhere near eight. Are there a bunch of special districts and/or assessments?

As far as Chicago pulling a Detroit, I can't see that. Sure, certain areas may decline (or decline further), but the city as a whole is too large with too diverse an economy and has too much of a national/worldwide influence. Detroit was/is heavily tied into a single manufacturing industry.

As of 2019, Chicago is the third largest city, metro, and CSA in the country. By 2040, Houston will likely pass Chicago as the third largest city-proper; the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metros could pass the Chicago metro; and the Washington-Baltimore, Bay Area, Dallas-Forth Worth and Houston CSAs will all pass the Chicago CSA (Washington-Baltimore likely already has).

[NWI_Irish96]

I think that you have left off a number of cities in Southern California that you mistakenly believe are suburbs of LA. Most people in Orange County and even northern and western LA county do not think of themselves as living in an LA suburb. Also, Stockton, Oakland, Fremont, and San Francisco are not and will not become suburbs of Modesto. San Francisco, isn't on your list, but some city in the Bay Area besides San Jose needs to be. Oakland is not a suburb of San Jose (or San Francisco) any more than Anaheim is a suburb of LA.

Earlier in this thread OP clarified that the listed cities were metros, not cities proper, so by listing San Jose he was considering the whole Bay Area, and by listing Los Angeles he was including Orange County and the Inland Empire.

I'll believe it when I see it. There's an entire industry these days that profits off of people believing that Chicago and California are hellholes, where should you cross the boundary defining them, you will immediately get mugged, your dog will get mugged, you will instantly declare bankruptcy, you will be forced to go to the doctor, your car will be repossessed, you will be forced onto a train, and you'll have to spend time around some guy with a scary-sounding name whose skin color doesn't match your own.

Declare bankruptcy may be overstating it, but a house 500 feet west of mine with the same value has a 8x higher property tax bill.

Can you clarify? From what I could tell for Lake County vs. Cook County, I could find rates that were two to three times as much, but nowhere near eight. Are there a bunch of special districts and/or assessments?

As far as Chicago pulling a Detroit, I can't see that. Sure, certain areas may decline (or decline further), but the city as a whole is too large with too diverse an economy and has too much of a national/worldwide influence. Detroit was/is heavily tied into a single manufacturing industry.

As of 2019, Chicago is the third largest city, metro, and CSA in the country. By 2040, Houston will likely pass Chicago as the third largest city-proper; the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metros could pass the Chicago metro; and the Washington-Baltimore, Bay Area, Dallas-Forth Worth and Houston CSAs will all pass the Chicago CSA (Washington-Baltimore likely already has).

OK so I just checked again on a house that is listed for sale at the exact price my house appraised for within the last year. Taxes on that house are 4.8 times higher than mine. Not 8, but still a pretty significant difference. If that house sells for list price, the buyer finances 80% of the purchase price at 3.0%, monthly mortgage payment is 20% less than the monthly property tax payment.

[DTComposer]

OK so I just checked again on a house that is listed for sale at the exact price my house appraised for within the last year. Taxes on that house are 4.8 times higher than mine. Not 8, but still a pretty significant difference. If that house sells for list price, the buyer finances 80% of the purchase price at 3.0%, monthly mortgage payment is 20% less than the monthly property tax payment.

Thanks for the clarification. I didn't doubt there was a serious difference in taxes. I wonder if there's similar differences in other multi-state metros (New York/New Jersey/Connecticut, Maryland/Virginia/DC, etc).

I'll believe it when I see it. There's an entire industry these days that profits off of people believing that Chicago and California are hellholes, where should you cross the boundary defining them, you will immediately get mugged, your dog will get mugged, you will instantly declare bankruptcy, you will be forced to go to the doctor, your car will be repossessed, you will be forced onto a train, and you'll have to spend time around some guy with a scary-sounding name whose skin color doesn't match your own.

About once a generation there seems to be a swell of press on the impending demise of California. Between 1989 and 1995 there were two major earthquakes, a series of destructive wildfires, social unrest and rioting, and a downturn in the economy (pre-first wave internet boom). The amount of sky-is-falling in the media was impressive (there was a whole special issue of Time dedicated to it). And yet...

Don't get me wrong - I will be first in line to tell you about the myriad of serious issues in California today - but the relish with which some people wish the state to slide into the ocean (figuratively or literally) is a bit much. I don't understand - if you're happy with where you live, great, but why is it necessary to tell everyone else that their city/state/country sucks?

[Scott5114]

Don't get me wrong - I will be first in line to tell you about the myriad of serious issues in California today - but the relish with which some people wish the state to slide into the ocean (figuratively or literally) is a bit much. I don't understand - if you're happy with where you live, great, but why is it necessary to tell everyone else that their city/state/country sucks?

It's because there are things about California that rich and powerful people fear will spread elsewhere, so they have to sell California as being a disaster zone. They can then convince people like my dad that the things they don't like caused that made-up disaster.

Meanwhile, you look at the real-world California and the biggest problems have the root cause of too many people want to live in California. If it sucks so badly, why do so many people want to live there?

[SectorZ]

Don't get me wrong - I will be first in line to tell you about the myriad of serious issues in California today - but the relish with which some people wish the state to slide into the ocean (figuratively or literally) is a bit much. I don't understand - if you're happy with where you live, great, but why is it necessary to tell everyone else that their city/state/country sucks?

It's because there are things about California that rich and powerful people fear will spread elsewhere, so they have to sell California as being a disaster zone. They can then convince people like my dad that the things they don't like caused that made-up disaster.

Meanwhile, you look at the real-world California and the biggest problems have the root cause of too many people want to live in California. If it sucks so badly, why do so many people want to live there?

The US population from 2010-2019, per census data, went up 6.1%. California went up... 6.1%, so doesn't seem like there is additional demand to live there if their rate of increase is the same as the nation as a whole.

Meanwhile, Illinois dropped 1.2%, second worse state to West Virginia's 3.3% drop. Vermont and Connecticut are the other losers at about 0.2-0.3%.

[Scott5114]

Yeah, but if the California in my dad's mind had any bearing on reality, it would have a —78% change in population every year, because it's just that horrible.


Fig. 1. A typical Los Angeles street scene, according to my dad.

[DTComposer]

Don't get me wrong - I will be first in line to tell you about the myriad of serious issues in California today - but the relish with which some people wish the state to slide into the ocean (figuratively or literally) is a bit much. I don't understand - if you're happy with where you live, great, but why is it necessary to tell everyone else that their city/state/country sucks?

It's because there are things about California that rich and powerful people fear will spread elsewhere, so they have to sell California as being a disaster zone. They can then convince people like my dad that the things they don't like caused that made-up disaster.

Meanwhile, you look at the real-world California and the biggest problems have the root cause of too many people want to live in California. If it sucks so badly, why do so many people want to live there?

The US population from 2010-2019, per census data, went up 6.1%. California went up... 6.1%, so doesn't seem like there is additional demand to live there if their rate of increase is the same as the nation as a whole.

Meanwhile, Illinois dropped 1.2%, second worse state to West Virginia's 3.3% drop. Vermont and Connecticut are the other losers at about 0.2-0.3%.

Yes, since 1990 California's percentage growth has been on track with the national average. But that also means that, in spite of the naysaying and predictions of doom and collapse, its population growth has remained consistent and healthy.

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

[hotdogPi]

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

[webny99]

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

"And so on" must have been referring to New England. 

[Scott5114]

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

Yeah, the...(checks profile) Massachusetts/New Hampshire border really sucks. Worst place ever. It starts off all straight and flat, and you're like, good, cool, simple east-west border...then you get to Methuen and then it's like, who designed this shit, a bunch of (checks Massachusetts stereotype list)...pilgrims...drunk on...(checks again) fermented cranberries? What, was everyone too busy (checks list of things I know about New Hampshire) voting in primary elections when they drew the border to bother making it straight or something?

[vdeane]

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

Yeah, the...(checks profile) Massachusetts/New Hampshire border really sucks. Worst place ever. It starts off all straight and flat, and you're like, good, cool, simple east-west border...then you get to Methuen and then it's like, who designed this shit, a bunch of (checks Massachusetts stereotype list)...pilgrims...drunk on...(checks again) fermented cranberries? What, was everyone too busy (checks list of things I know about New Hampshire) voting in primary elections when they drew the border to bother making it straight or something?

The original charter for the Massachusetts Bay Colony specified a northern border three miles north/east of the Merrimack River.  After the creation of New Hampshire, the two colonies disputed their border - NH claimed a line three miles north of the mouth of the Merrimack heading west, MA claimed everything south of the north end of the Merrimack all the way between NY and the point three miles east of the river.  The King eventually drew a line heading west from the point where the Merrimack turns north, heavily favoring New Hampshire (the Puritans had been on the side of the English Civil War that had previously overthrown the monarchy, and NH was singing his praises).

[DTComposer]

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

Yeah, the...(checks profile) Massachusetts/New Hampshire border really sucks. Worst place ever. It starts off all straight and flat, and you're like, good, cool, simple east-west border...then you get to Methuen and then it's like, who designed this shit, a bunch of (checks Massachusetts stereotype list)...pilgrims...drunk on...(checks again) fermented cranberries? What, was everyone too busy (checks list of things I know about New Hampshire) voting in primary elections when they drew the border to bother making it straight or something?

The original charter for the Massachusetts Bay Colony specified a northern border three miles north/east of the Merrimack River.  After the creation of New Hampshire, the two colonies disputed their border - NH claimed a line three miles north of the mouth of the Merrimack heading west, MA claimed everything south of the north end of the Merrimack all the way between NY and the point three miles east of the river.  The King eventually drew a line heading west from the point where the Merrimack turns north, heavily favoring New Hampshire (the Puritans had been on the side of the English Civil War that had previously overthrown the monarchy, and NH was singing his praises).

One of my go-to books for...bathroom reading is "How the States Got Their Shapes" by Mark Stein. This sort of stuff is fascinating to me.

[NWI_Irish96]

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

Yeah, the...(checks profile) Massachusetts/New Hampshire border really sucks. Worst place ever. It starts off all straight and flat, and you're like, good, cool, simple east-west border...then you get to Methuen and then it's like, who designed this shit, a bunch of (checks Massachusetts stereotype list)...pilgrims...drunk on...(checks again) fermented cranberries? What, was everyone too busy (checks list of things I know about New Hampshire) voting in primary elections when they drew the border to bother making it straight or something?

The original charter for the Massachusetts Bay Colony specified a northern border three miles north/east of the Merrimack River.  After the creation of New Hampshire, the two colonies disputed their border - NH claimed a line three miles north of the mouth of the Merrimack heading west, MA claimed everything south of the north end of the Merrimack all the way between NY and the point three miles east of the river.  The King eventually drew a line heading west from the point where the Merrimack turns north, heavily favoring New Hampshire (the Puritans had been on the side of the English Civil War that had previously overthrown the monarchy, and NH was singing his praises).

One of my go-to books for...bathroom reading is "How the States Got Their Shapes" by Mark Stein. This sort of stuff is fascinating to me.

That book was made into a TV series on the History Channel. Should still be available on demand somewhere if you haven't watched it yet. I watch it every 2-3 years.

[vdeane]

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

Yeah, the...(checks profile) Massachusetts/New Hampshire border really sucks. Worst place ever. It starts off all straight and flat, and you're like, good, cool, simple east-west border...then you get to Methuen and then it's like, who designed this shit, a bunch of (checks Massachusetts stereotype list)...pilgrims...drunk on...(checks again) fermented cranberries? What, was everyone too busy (checks list of things I know about New Hampshire) voting in primary elections when they drew the border to bother making it straight or something?

The original charter for the Massachusetts Bay Colony specified a northern border three miles north/east of the Merrimack River.  After the creation of New Hampshire, the two colonies disputed their border - NH claimed a line three miles north of the mouth of the Merrimack heading west, MA claimed everything south of the north end of the Merrimack all the way between NY and the point three miles east of the river.  The King eventually drew a line heading west from the point where the Merrimack turns north, heavily favoring New Hampshire (the Puritans had been on the side of the English Civil War that had previously overthrown the monarchy, and NH was singing his praises).

One of my go-to books for...bathroom reading is "How the States Got Their Shapes" by Mark Stein. This sort of stuff is fascinating to me.

That would be where I looked up everything in that paragraph.  It's amazing how many times I've referred to that book after offhand comments here and elsewhere.

I should add re: my earlier remarks that I wasn't just referring to people bashing California. You see that kind of negativity hurled at New York, Florida, the Midwest, Appalachia, the South, Texas, Arizona, the Northwest, and so on. (check out the city vs. city threads on City-Data.com if you want some extreme examples of this)

Thank you for excluding my area.

Yeah, the...(checks profile) Massachusetts/New Hampshire border really sucks. Worst place ever. It starts off all straight and flat, and you're like, good, cool, simple east-west border...then you get to Methuen and then it's like, who designed this shit, a bunch of (checks Massachusetts stereotype list)...pilgrims...drunk on...(checks again) fermented cranberries? What, was everyone too busy (checks list of things I know about New Hampshire) voting in primary elections when they drew the border to bother making it straight or something?

The original charter for the Massachusetts Bay Colony specified a northern border three miles north/east of the Merrimack River.  After the creation of New Hampshire, the two colonies disputed their border - NH claimed a line three miles north of the mouth of the Merrimack heading west, MA claimed everything south of the north end of the Merrimack all the way between NY and the point three miles east of the river.  The King eventually drew a line heading west from the point where the Merrimack turns north, heavily favoring New Hampshire (the Puritans had been on the side of the English Civil War that had previously overthrown the monarchy, and NH was singing his praises).

One of my go-to books for...bathroom reading is "How the States Got Their Shapes" by Mark Stein. This sort of stuff is fascinating to me.

That book was made into a TV series on the History Channel. Should still be available on demand somewhere if you haven't watched it yet. I watch it every 2-3 years.

IMO the original two hour special is the best.  Season 1 was good, but at times felt like it was taking footage shot for but not used in the special, mixing it with footage originally aired in the special, with some additional interviews, to milk the special for more money.  Season 2 was just a game show that didn't really add anything.

[webny99]

That would be where I looked up everything in that paragraph.  It's amazing how many times I've referred to that book after offhand comments here and elsewhere.

Offhand and, in this case, completely not serious, so I hope your response was all in fun as well.

[vdeane]

That would be where I looked up everything in that paragraph.  It's amazing how many times I've referred to that book after offhand comments here and elsewhere.

Offhand and, in this case, completely not serious, so I hope your response was all in fun as well.

The post included a question.  I answered it.  After consulting with the book.

[webny99]

That would be where I looked up everything in that paragraph.  It's amazing how many times I've referred to that book after offhand comments here and elsewhere.

Offhand and, in this case, completely not serious, so I hope your response was all in fun as well.

The post included a question.  I answered it.  After consulting with the book.

I get that - just pointing out that it was some fun-spirited New England-bashing that happened to have a question mark at the end, not an actual serious question.

[JayhawkCO]

For your Canadian picks, interesting that you picked Red Deer, AB when you could have picked Hamilton, ON, which has about 6x as many people in the metro.