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Author Topic: NASCAR  (Read 25460 times)

kenarmy

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NASCAR
« on: February 12, 2021, 10:30:58 PM »

Do you guys have some predictions for the 2021 nascar season?
I think
* Denny Hamlin will finally get his championship. He literally deserves this more than anybody.
* Bubba Wallace will get his first win, he's one of my picks for the daytona 500 as well.
* This is Kurt Busch's last season
* This is Ryan Newman's last season
* Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott will outdo the Penske cars
* Christopher Bell won't do the Joe Gibbs #20 justice. It's been going down since Matt Kenseth (my fave btw) left.
* I feel like Kyle Busch will be able to bounce back from his lackluster season.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2021, 09:50:45 PM by kenarmy »
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thspfc

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2021, 12:01:18 PM »

I'm not going to waste time making any predictions because every single year I lose interest in NASCAR after like the 3rd race, when I realize that most of the tracks are really boring.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2021, 12:27:59 PM »

- TV ratings will fall another 10%.
- When/if open live gates resume, it will be hard to tell the difference.
- Comcast will pull the plug on NBCSN the week after the Olympics, if held, or earlier if not.  Events on USA Network will reach new all time lows.
- No one at NASCAR management will do anything about these self-inflicted wounds.

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2021, 12:35:27 PM »

I'm not going to waste time making any predictions because every single year I lose interest in NASCAR after like the 3rd race, when I realize that most of the tracks are really boring.

Not sure if you've noticed, but:
1 of the 2 Dover races has been moved to Nashville
Chicago's oval race has been moved to the road course at Road America, WI
One of Texas' oval races has been moved to the road course at Austin
The Indy oval race has been moved to the road course
The Fontana, CA oval race has been moved to the Daytona road course (due to COVID)
One of the Bristol races will be run on dirt.

Due to the increased number of road courses, I expect Chase Elliott to easily make it through to the Championship 4. I expect Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick there as well. I think the last spot will be between Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr.

I give Elliott the slight edge to repeat, but really any of the drivers I named would not surprise me as champion.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2021, 05:38:37 PM »

-Kurt Busch retires from a full-time career, but follows Jimmie Johnsonís lead and goes racing in other series.
-Bubba Wallace wins a race before Kyle Larson, but Kyle has a better year overall.
-The road course races are the most exciting of the year.
-Final Four: Harvick, Elliott, Blaney, Kyle Busch.
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hbelkins

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2021, 10:50:16 PM »

NASCAR will have been dead two decades on the 18th of this month.

Dale Earnhardt and other top drivers (Rusty Wallace, Bill Elliott, Richard Petty, etc.) had the ear of Big Bill France. He listened and took heed of what they said.

I don't think Earnhardt would really approve of what NASCAR's current leadership is doing on the track in terms of rules changes, and off of the track in terms of how certain incidents are handled. There's one in particular that I sure don't approve of, which is why I slammed the door on NASCAR last spring.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2021, 10:59:35 PM »

If people keep making veiled references to politics, this thread will be locked. Keep it to racing.

hbelkins

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2021, 11:23:15 PM »

Stuff like this...

https://www.sbnation.com/nascar/2016/4/21/11483470/nascar-fines-tony-stewart-safety-lug-nuts

If that had happened in 1996, and if it had been Earnhardt or Wallace or Darrell Waltrip saying it, there would have been no fine. Big Bill would have taken the comments under advisement. But two decades later, and after Earnhardt's death had led NASCAR to start emphasizing safety with renewed vigor, this took place.

Track attendance had been falling steadily, a combination of the economy and the on-track product. Now the TV ratings are tumbling. I'm not sure if the France offspring (Brian France and Lesa France Kennedy) are still running things or not, but whoever's in charge needs to take note. The Chase, stage racing, the "lucky dog" and no racing back to the flag ... if they were trying to attract new fans while maintaining the old ones, they failed in both efforts.
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Max Rockatansky

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2021, 01:23:38 AM »

It doesnít help NASCAR that their fan base is extremely elderly at this point.  Pretty much the majority of people I know who followed NASCAR aside from myself is dead or nearing the end of their lives.  Pretty much NASCAR and motor racing in general at this point is the Buick of the sports world.  Iím not sure what can be done at this point other than to take it back to a niche market.

As far as predictions, I donít follow the series anywhere as close I should to even come up with something relatively accurate.  I usually catch about half the races now and read about the rest.  The diversity in racing courses has me intrigued though.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2021, 01:26:31 AM by Max Rockatansky »
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2021, 08:45:24 AM »

Stuff like this...

https://www.sbnation.com/nascar/2016/4/21/11483470/nascar-fines-tony-stewart-safety-lug-nuts

If that had happened in 1996, and if it had been Earnhardt or Wallace or Darrell Waltrip saying it, there would have been no fine. Big Bill would have taken the comments under advisement. But two decades later, and after Earnhardt's death had led NASCAR to start emphasizing safety with renewed vigor, this took place.

Track attendance had been falling steadily, a combination of the economy and the on-track product. Now the TV ratings are tumbling. I'm not sure if the France offspring (Brian France and Lesa France Kennedy) are still running things or not, but whoever's in charge needs to take note. The Chase, stage racing, the "lucky dog" and no racing back to the flag ... if they were trying to attract new fans while maintaining the old ones, they failed in both efforts.
I think Jim France (Bill Jrís younger brother) has been in charge since Brianís DUI arrest. Jim is also in charge of IMSA, which isnít declining.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2021, 08:54:47 AM »

At this point, NASCAR is relying on its expensive TV contracts with Fox and NBC. I believe that those will expire in 2024. It will be interesting to see what happens after that. Do Fox and NBC want them? Do they go to other networks for less money?

Some say that NASCAR’s downfall is due to them trying too hard to appeal to the “casual” fan, instead of catering to their hardcore lifers. I disagree. That business model has been successful for many sports leagues. The main issue is very simple: NASCAR’s product just isn’t that good. The Daytona 500 is fun but other than that, it’s boring. They’ve tried to improve it by adding more road courses, but those don’t really interest me either. And don’t even get me started on them having their season continue into the fall months. Like, come on, you know that you’re going to get destroyed by the NFL and the plethora of other sports going on at that time (baseball playoffs, early-season hockey and basketball, college football, MLS playoffs).
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2021, 09:28:39 AM »

Stuff like this...

https://www.sbnation.com/nascar/2016/4/21/11483470/nascar-fines-tony-stewart-safety-lug-nuts

If that had happened in 1996, and if it had been Earnhardt or Wallace or Darrell Waltrip saying it, there would have been no fine. Big Bill would have taken the comments under advisement. But two decades later, and after Earnhardt's death had led NASCAR to start emphasizing safety with renewed vigor, this took place.

Track attendance had been falling steadily, a combination of the economy and the on-track product. Now the TV ratings are tumbling. I'm not sure if the France offspring (Brian France and Lesa France Kennedy) are still running things or not, but whoever's in charge needs to take note. The Chase, stage racing, the "lucky dog" and no racing back to the flag ... if they were trying to attract new fans while maintaining the old ones, they failed in both efforts.

I always thought they misapplied how the lucky dog should work when they invented this.  In situations where they were racing back to the flag sometimes 3 people got a lap back, sometimes nobody.  Some of the drivers who got a lap back were multiple laps down.  The way to get that same outcome with the lucky dog would be to give back a lap to anyone not on the lead lap who was within say 3 scoring loops of the leader when the caution flag comes out.  It seems ridiculous to give the first car one lap down a lap back when they were 3/4 of a lap down and do nothing for someone laps down who is right behind the leader on the track.

You could've also kept the race back to the flag by throwing a red flag if there is a safety reason to not race back to the flag on any particular caution incident, such as the Dale Jarrett spin near the start/finish line that prompted the rule change to begin with.

I'm not the hugest fan of stage racing but I would like it better if they did not throw a caution at the end of the stages.  The stage racing format gets rid of a lot of green-flag pit stops which can greatly impact a team one way or the other depending on how it was executed.

The one problem with the Chase sort of equating what happens for playoffs in other sports is you are much more likely to end up with a champion who wasn't the first or second best driver during the season.  The other flaw is that other non-chase drivers have influence on the outcome of the chaser's finish.

Some tracks are definitely more boring than others - partly a product of how they engineer the cars to keep them from going airborne in a crash and these adjustments also make it hard to pass due to how air interacts with cars around you when you are not crashing.  I hate restrictor plate racing.  They should run those races on 6 or 7 cylinders so that there can be differences in engine building prowess and therefore some cars will be faster than others.  Or flatten the curves at the two tracks that need this so that a driver must slow down and therefore some skill is involved in getting around the track.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2021, 09:50:32 AM »

Quote
I'm not the hugest fan of stage racing but I would like it better if they did not throw a caution at the end of the stages.  The stage racing format gets rid of a lot of green-flag pit stops which can greatly impact a team one way or the other depending on how it was executed.

Even Eric Estepp (who supports stage racing) agrees that cautions should not be thrown at the end of stages on road courses.  Cautions at the end of stages really mess with the strategies on the road courses with anyone wanting to stay up front basically being forced to give up stage points for it.
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NWI_Irish96

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2021, 11:29:31 AM »

At this point, NASCAR is relying on its expensive TV contracts with Fox and NBC. I believe that those will expire in 2024. It will be interesting to see what happens after that. Do Fox and NBC want them? Do they go to other networks for less money?

Some say that NASCARís downfall is due to them trying too hard to appeal to the ďcasualĒ fan, instead of catering to their hardcore lifers. I disagree. That business model has been successful for many sports leagues. The main issue is very simple: NASCARís product just isnít that good. The Daytona 500 is fun but other than that, itís boring. Theyíve tried to improve it by adding more road courses, but those donít really interest me either. And donít even get me started on them having their season continue into the fall months. Like, come on, you know that youíre going to get destroyed by the NFL and the plethora of other sports going on at that time (baseball playoffs, early-season hockey and basketball, college football, MLS playoffs).

I think NASCAR is aware of the struggles of grabbing ratings in the Fall. Golf made their switch to end their season in August. In order to do this NASCAR would have to push the start of the season well before mid-February. That either forces the Daytona 500 to either move off its traditional mid-February weekend of cease to be the first race of the season. Beyond that, it would be hard to find enough tracks where it's warm enough to have races in December-January.

This year they've pushed up the start of the season by one week, doubled up the Pocono races to a single weekend, and eliminated an off week and gotten the season finale up to Nov. 7. That's probably the best they can do. In 2020 they were forced to run weeknight races due to COVID and got bad TV ratings so they probably aren't willing to consider that as a permanent change.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2021, 11:33:20 AM »

Quote
I'm not the hugest fan of stage racing but I would like it better if they did not throw a caution at the end of the stages.  The stage racing format gets rid of a lot of green-flag pit stops which can greatly impact a team one way or the other depending on how it was executed.

Even Eric Estepp (who supports stage racing) agrees that cautions should not be thrown at the end of stages on road courses.  Cautions at the end of stages really mess with the strategies on the road courses with anyone wanting to stay up front basically being forced to give up stage points for it.

I don't like the planned cautions of the stages. It saves drivers who have made mistakes or had accidents and were about to get lapped under green. It makes it easier for the strongest teams to stay at the front and makes it harder for the second tier teams to steal a win based on strategy.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2021, 11:34:40 AM »

Eric Estepp is like 12 years old. 

Stages were a mistake.  Proof?   The live gate and TV ratings were higher without them.

Ending the ultra-safe practice of racing back to the caution was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

The "playoffs" were a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Abandoning cars with a superficial relationship to the manufacturers in favor of the current spec cars was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Telling people who invest $100 or more in person, or their entire day on TV in a race that who won the race really doesn't matter, what the situation will be in some "playoff" to be held months from now in a different part of the country, was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Road courses and the silly idea that, somehow oval tracks, the backbone of the sport, are "boring" is a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Spotter dependence, caused by drivers having limited freedom of movement, was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

The TV contract indeed runs out after the 24 season.  Fox is known to want out.  It seems fine with just baseball and football.  NBC is going to make a run at more football.  NASCAR is probably going to get maybe a quarter of what it is getting now.  Perhaps then, finally, will realize that it was impossible to improve on that which was already done correctly. 
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2021, 12:01:39 PM »

Quote
Eric Estepp is like 12 years old.

Insulting a NASCAR YouTuber that loves the sport is definitely not going to help it.  I watch his race reviews every week, and he and other NASCAR YouTubers have no problem calling out NASCAR when they see fit.

Where the sport goes from here is going to be interesting, but the current sanctioning body is willing to try new things.  We will have to wait and see if interest in the sport improves over the coming years or if it all but dies out.

There is also a new talented female driver (Hailie Deegan) in the Truck Series this year.  She is already one of the most popular drivers in NASCAR, and I expect way more from her than I ever saw out of Danica.

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2021, 12:15:54 PM »

Eric Estepp is like 12 years old. 

Stages were a mistake.  Proof?   The live gate and TV ratings were higher without them.

Ending the ultra-safe practice of racing back to the caution was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

The "playoffs" were a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Abandoning cars with a superficial relationship to the manufacturers in favor of the current spec cars was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Telling people who invest $100 or more in person, or their entire day on TV in a race that who won the race really doesn't matter, what the situation will be in some "playoff" to be held months from now in a different part of the country, was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Road courses and the silly idea that, somehow oval tracks, the backbone of the sport, are "boring" is a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

Spotter dependence, caused by drivers having limited freedom of movement, was a mistake.  Proof?  Same.

The TV contract indeed runs out after the 24 season.  Fox is known to want out.  It seems fine with just baseball and football.  NBC is going to make a run at more football.  NASCAR is probably going to get maybe a quarter of what it is getting now.  Perhaps then, finally, will realize that it was impossible to improve on that which was already done correctly. 

Lower attendance and TV ratings aren't "proof" that every change was a mistake. There were a lot of factors beyond NASCAR's control that hurt attendance and TV ratings for essentially every sport except football.

Spec cars were a necessary move to allow there to be more than just 3-4 teams being able to afford to field cars. If you'd prefer to watch 20 non-spec cars in a race rather than 40 spec cars, you're probably in the minority.

If ratings are worse because they no longer allow dangerous things like racing back to the caution, then that's life.

The new road courses this year are replacing a second race at Texas, the race at a Chicago track that's exactly like about a dozen other tracks, and the Indy Oval which just isn't suited to stock cars. Nobody is going to miss what's been replaced.

Also, you're one of few who would have watched the last two races after Kevin Harvick clinched the championship at Texas in the non-playoff world.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2021, 12:49:31 PM »

At this point, NASCAR is relying on its expensive TV contracts with Fox and NBC. I believe that those will expire in 2024. It will be interesting to see what happens after that. Do Fox and NBC want them? Do they go to other networks for less money?

Some say that NASCARís downfall is due to them trying too hard to appeal to the ďcasualĒ fan, instead of catering to their hardcore lifers. I disagree. That business model has been successful for many sports leagues. The main issue is very simple: NASCARís product just isnít that good. The Daytona 500 is fun but other than that, itís boring. Theyíve tried to improve it by adding more road courses, but those donít really interest me either. And donít even get me started on them having their season continue into the fall months. Like, come on, you know that youíre going to get destroyed by the NFL and the plethora of other sports going on at that time (baseball playoffs, early-season hockey and basketball, college football, MLS playoffs).

I think NASCAR is aware of the struggles of grabbing ratings in the Fall. Golf made their switch to end their season in August. In order to do this NASCAR would have to push the start of the season well before mid-February. That either forces the Daytona 500 to either move off its traditional mid-February weekend of cease to be the first race of the season. Beyond that, it would be hard to find enough tracks where it's warm enough to have races in December-January.

This year they've pushed up the start of the season by one week, doubled up the Pocono races to a single weekend, and eliminated an off week and gotten the season finale up to Nov. 7. That's probably the best they can do. In 2020 they were forced to run weeknight races due to COVID and got bad TV ratings so they probably aren't willing to consider that as a permanent change.
IndyCar has ended its season in the early fall for years, for that reason. It ended in later in 2020 due to the pandemic.
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2021, 01:24:34 PM »

truex is gonna drive it like he stole it.

2017: nuggets sucked, avs sucked, Broncos sucked, Rockies sucked. truex brought the cup to denver that year and will always have my respect even if FRR is no more ...
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #20 on: February 14, 2021, 01:37:37 PM »



Lower attendance and TV ratings aren't "proof" that every change was a mistake. There were a lot of factors beyond NASCAR's control that hurt attendance and TV ratings for essentially every sport except football.


Except that NO sport in the history of sports has lost as many fans, TV and live, than NASCAR ins such a time period.  Thus the whole "outside factors" silliness is just that, silly.

Reality is that NASCAR had a culture of listening to who paid the bills.  For a long time that was RJR, in the person of T. Wayne Robertson, who was a natural promoter, LIKED NASCAR, and understood it and the people it appealed to.  When RJR left, that became the TV networks, particularly NBC, which sent down a bunch of empty suit people from HQ who did not understand NASCAR, did not like NASCAR, and had abject contempt for the type of person who did. 

They were listened to.

Quote
Spec cars were a necessary move to allow there to be more than just 3-4 teams being able to afford to field cars. If you'd prefer to watch 20 non-spec cars in a race rather than 40 spec cars, you're probably in the minority.


I would prefer to watch 43 cars, the number that NASCAR could attract under previous rules.  Spec cars, the so called Car of Tomorrow led to fiascos like the 08 Brickyard 400.  Imagine a world where people that believe in such stupidity were disregarded, and the IMS race still draws a full house, not the 10% crowd it did last non covid time. 

Quote
If ratings are worse because they no longer allow dangerous things like racing back to the caution, then that's life.

Please list the major accidents caused in the over 50 years of the ultra safe practice of racing back to the caution.

I will help you out.  There were none.  Because racing back to the caution is ultra safe.

Quote
The new road courses this year are replacing a second race at Texas, the race at a Chicago track that's exactly like about a dozen other tracks, and the Indy Oval which just isn't suited to stock cars. Nobody is going to miss what's been replaced.

If you like road courses, find a race series, I suggest IMSA, that is about them.  NASCAR is about ovals.

Yes, when NASCAR was well run, its popularity exploded and tracks were built around the country.  So NASCAR could have a presence in more places.  Just like when pro football exploded a generation before, proper football fields were built in new metro area.  Not goofy gimmicks.  Proper football fields.

Quote

Also, you're one of few who would have watched the last two races after Kevin Harvick clinched the championship at Texas in the non-playoff world.

Umm, the howcome the ratings during the well run era was so far higher than these idiotic playoffs are.

And, why would ANYONE watch a random race in June, when ALL THAT MATTERS is this playoffs, which produce a completely random result in no way reflective of a true "champion"?  Just tune in for the last half hour of the playoffs.

Why watch a race when you know who is "champion" of the year?  Because in the well run era winning the championship (which was a legitimate thing, not a random result like today) was ONE measure of who had a good year, along with winning major races, multiple races, etc.  But the all consuming most important thing each week was WHO WON THE RACE!!!
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2021, 02:24:45 PM »

Sure nascar is declining, but it didn't do that bad last season. Ratings were down by 2 percent, and up by 1 if you don't count the delayed Daytona. I'm guessing the race being on valentines day would make it fall, but most of the country is having some sort of effect from winter weather.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2021, 02:28:31 PM by kenarmy »
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2021, 02:44:54 PM »

Beyond that, it would be hard to find enough tracks where it's warm enough to have races in December-January.

One of the reasons Rockingham got dropped from the schedule was because of declining attendance. Well, duh. It's cold in North Carolina in February.
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formulanone

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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #23 on: February 14, 2021, 03:21:12 PM »

Eh, I dislike most of NASCAR's decision-making over the last twenty years, but I'll stick up for disallowing "racing back to the flag" on the merits of safety, along with the HANS device. Face it, it's a sporting body* that has jiggled with the rules constantly and has been historically inconsistent with applying penalties since day one, it just took some time for you all to realize it. It's all about the gate receipts and ratings, and when those go, the need to keep fussing around the the sport every few weeks starts to disappear. The best thing for it might be to collapse under its own weight, and then it might revert somewhat the the way sport it once was...the theory is that those who want to compete will do so but there's always the fear that the biggest teams will sway the rules and regulations to their desires.

Start by eliminating the Chase and a lot of issues will start to work themselves out.

* the FIA and CART/USAC/IRL aren't or weren't much better, honestly.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2021, 03:24:03 PM by formulanone »
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Re: NASCAR predictions
« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2021, 07:31:38 PM »

The way they do the playoffs is a terrible idea. Everyone can still race, but only a few drivers get any benefit from it? Why would I drive a car and risk anything in a race I can't win even if I finish first? Do what golf does. Cut out a few people after the first couple of rounds, leave enough to still make a good race, but even as a non-fan I feel strongly about it.

 


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