Electric Car Arguing 2022

[tolbs17]

Electric vehicles of the future! They are really pushing hard for everybody to switch to an electric car I see.

https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-electric-car-charging-stations-national-network-plan-tesla-2022-2

[DenverBrian]

When they have 300+ mile range and ubiquitous charging stations (that's what the infrastructure bill is trying to do), I'll happily switch over to an all-electric vehicle.

For now, when you can walk outside and spit and hit four gas stations, ICE cars are still the champs and will be for probably another decade.

[HighwayStar]

When they have 300+ mile range and ubiquitous charging stations (that's what the infrastructure bill is trying to do), I'll happily switch over to an all-electric vehicle.

For now, when you can walk outside and spit and hit four gas stations, ICE cars are still the champs and will be for probably another decade.

Even once the stations are there it won't fix the problem of having to wait for the thing to charge.
The EV will only be a real car when an EV holds the Cannonball run title.

[triplemultiplex]

People really cling to that 5% of their driving to poo-poo EV's.  I wonder if they let the 5% use case dictate their other durable goods purchases?

[HighwayStar]

People really cling to that 5% of their driving to poo-poo EV's.  I wonder if they let the 5% use case dictate their other durable goods purchases?

Not all goods are the same, and when it comes to vehicles that 5% is the one that actually matters.
I'm not going to buy a car that leaves me unable to do the type of travel that I want, even if it is not the majority, when I can readily buy a vehicle for less money that will outperform the EV in most categories.

And people often do use such considerations for buying what they need. I can't use a hard drive that is 5% smaller than the data I have to store.

[Scott5114]

Hell, I'm a roadgeek and I've already determined an EV would be viable. There are already way more chargers in the world than anyone driving an ICE car realizes.

If someone values their time at $20/hour 15 minutes of their time is $5. If charging takes 15 minutes, you only need to save $5 over the price of gasoline to overcome the opportunity cost. (And even then, most people own smartphones so they could easily use the 15 minutes of downtime to catch up on emails or whatever, so there may not even be an opportunity cost.)

Most people who own EVs charge at home so they're not even out any time.

[Rothman]

Hell, I'm a roadgeek and I've already determined an EV would be viable. There are already way more chargers in the world than anyone driving an ICE car realizes.

If someone values their time at $20/hour 15 minutes of their time is $5. If charging takes 15 minutes, you only need to save $5 over the price of gasoline to overcome the opportunity cost. (And even then, most people own smartphones so they could easily use the 15 minutes of downtime to catch up on emails or whatever, so there may not even be an opportunity cost.)

Most people who own EVs charge at home so they're not even out any time.

It's not a matter of monetizing the cost of the time, but more time is just more time.  Given the 14 hour days I drive currently when on the road, adding all that extra charging time is intolerable.

[HighwayStar]

Hell, I'm a roadgeek and I've already determined an EV would be viable. There are already way more chargers in the world than anyone driving an ICE car realizes.

If someone values their time at $20/hour 15 minutes of their time is $5. If charging takes 15 minutes, you only need to save $5 over the price of gasoline to overcome the opportunity cost. (And even then, most people own smartphones so they could easily use the 15 minutes of downtime to catch up on emails or whatever, so there may not even be an opportunity cost.)

Most people who own EVs charge at home so they're not even out any time.

Opportunity cost does not always work that way. Sometimes I am trying to do endurance trips where sitting for 15 minutes to charge is unacceptable. I am not sitting and wasting time waiting for the stupid thing to charge. Especially considering how its not particularly good as a vehicle otherwise.
With a gas vehicle, I don't even need to consider fueling, virtually anywhere I go has gas readily available as soon as the light comes on, often without leaving sight of the road.

[Rick Powell]

Hell, I'm a roadgeek and I've already determined an EV would be viable. There are already way more chargers in the world than anyone driving an ICE car realizes.

If someone values their time at $20/hour 15 minutes of their time is $5. If charging takes 15 minutes, you only need to save $5 over the price of gasoline to overcome the opportunity cost. (And even then, most people own smartphones so they could easily use the 15 minutes of downtime to catch up on emails or whatever, so there may not even be an opportunity cost.)

Most people who own EVs charge at home so they're not even out any time.

A plug-in hybrid towing-capable with 50 miles of all-electric range is the perfect bridge vehicle for me, until the day when lightweight batteries with 600 miles of range or 5-10 minute charge capability, and the stations to serve it, become financially viable. Accounts for bad weather or pulling a load cutting down on time between charges, while serving probably 90% of my travel needs without having to sip dinosaur juice.

Larger-capacity batteries, even though they are expensive and heavy now, will improve over time. They offer real benefits over smaller batteries in faster charge time and less susceptibility of range depletion at real highway speeds, cold weather, or pulling a load.

[kalvado]

People really cling to that 5% of their driving to poo-poo EV's.  I wonder if they let the 5% use case dictate their other durable goods purchases?

Would you buy a house which is uninhabitable for just 5% of time? That is- during the coldest week of winter and the hottest week of summer? Oh, and 3 days during that major storm.

[HighwayStar]

People really cling to that 5% of their driving to poo-poo EV's.  I wonder if they let the 5% use case dictate their other durable goods purchases?

Would you buy a house which is uninhabitable for just 5% of time? That is- during the coldest week of winter and the hottest week of summer? Oh, and 3 days during that major storm.

This. 

[Scott5114]

You guys do realize that most of the cars you see on the road never leave the metro area you see them in, right?

Think about this–I'm pretty sure absolutely nobody on this forum would think twice about driving from Oklahoma City to Dallas. It's about 200 miles, a straight shot down I-35 for three hours and thirty minutes. Yet not just one but multiple airlines make that flight, and apparently enough people buy tickets that they turn a profit on it.

The people buying those tickets are the people that electric cars appeal to. They don't care that they have to charge the vehicle on a long trip because they don't take those trips by car.

[kalvado]

You guys do realize that most of the cars you see on the road never leave the metro area you see them in, right?

Think about this–I think absolutely nobody on this forum would think twice about driving from Oklahoma City to Dallas. It's about 200 miles, a straight shot down I-35 for three hours and thirty minutes. Yet that same itinerary has not just one but multiple airlines making that flight, and apparently enough people buying tickets that they turn a profit on it.

Those are the people that electric cars appeal to. They don't care that they have to charge the vehicle on a long trip because they don't take those trips by car.

Airline flights are not really a good argument here. A lot of traffic from a smaller city would connect to another flight. DFW has 2 out of 3 passengers on connecting flights.
I certainly would be OK with one commute-only vehicle in a household. Actually that was the way for many years, one of 2 cars was a commute-only clunker. Now if I want to replace a clunker with EV.... OK, how much of EV can I get under $5k? well, lets up to $10k?

[US 89]

You guys do realize that most of the cars you see on the road never leave the metro area you see them in, right?

Think about this–I'm pretty sure absolutely nobody on this forum would think twice about driving from Oklahoma City to Dallas. It's about 200 miles, a straight shot down I-35 for three hours and thirty minutes. Yet not just one but multiple airlines make that flight, and apparently enough people buy tickets that they turn a profit on it.

The people buying those tickets are the people that electric cars appeal to. They don't care that they have to charge the vehicle on a long trip because they don't take those trips by car.

Eh... I'd bet most of the people buying those tickets are not terminating in Dallas. They're flying American through their hub in DFW and onward to somewhere else much farther away. A 3.5-hour drive honestly doesn't sound like a whole lot of fun if it's all mileage I've done before and it comes right after a long day of air travel.

Also, who besides American flies from OKC to Dallas? The other legacies don't have hubs there, and none of the LCCs have that route as far as I can tell. Even Southwest doesn't have OKC-DAL as an option.

[HighwayStar]

You guys do realize that most of the cars you see on the road never leave the metro area you see them in, right?

Think about this–I'm pretty sure absolutely nobody on this forum would think twice about driving from Oklahoma City to Dallas. It's about 200 miles, a straight shot down I-35 for three hours and thirty minutes. Yet not just one but multiple airlines make that flight, and apparently enough people buy tickets that they turn a profit on it.

The people buying those tickets are the people that electric cars appeal to. They don't care that they have to charge the vehicle on a long trip because they don't take those trips by car.

No, I think the people that are buying electric cars fit cleanly into one of two categories.
Wealthy people that own several cars and can have one as a "city car."
Hipsters that want to be trendy and have neither the ability nor need to travel outside of their city by car.
Us regular folk have no use for them.
What does it cost to fly a family of 5 from OKC to Dallas versus drive?

[Scott5114]

Bringing up connections is sort of missing the point, though–OKC-MCI is a longer trip I think very few people on this forum would blink at doing, but there are plenty of people who would balk at the thought of being in a car for 6 hours.

The point I'm trying to get at is that the average person's travel patterns are nowhere near what we do on this forum.

[kalvado]

Bringing up connections is sort of missing the point, though–OKC-MCI is a longer trip I think very few people on this forum would blink at doing, but there are plenty of people who would balk at the thought of being in a car for 6 hours.

The point I'm trying to get at is that the average person's travel patterns are nowhere near what we do on this forum.

It may certainly be true, but still many people would be upset with a car without ability to drive away for the weekend. Large park, beach, relatives in another city may be relatively infrequent events - but highly concentrated ones. Thanksgiving, xmas, sunny summer day are peak medium haul travel events which can, and do,  clog roads and facilities.

[hotdogPi]

It may certainly be true, but still many people would be upset with a car without ability to drive away for the weekend. Large park, beach, relatives in another city may be relatively infrequent events - but highly concentrated ones. Thanksgiving, xmas, sunny summer day are peak medium haul travel events which can, and do,  clog roads and facilities.

Uber and Lyft exist.

[US 89]

I think I'm also approaching this from more of a western perspective, where the general public does in fact have a greater tolerance for how long they can spend in a car simply because stuff is more spaced out. People out there are more used to long drives.

Despite the existence of a direct Delta Connection flight from SLC to St George, just about the only people who take that flight live down there and the vast majority of people from up north just make the 4 hour drive. If I want to go from Salt Lake to someplace like Steamboat, the only way there is to suck up the 6 hr drive. I don't know anybody that would choose to go to Yellowstone from SLC by flying into Idaho Falls or Bozeman instead of just making the 5 hr drive up. The same concept applies even for slightly longer trips to larger places - unless it's for something like a quick weekend getaway or business trip, I find many people will choose to drive to places like Boise (5 hr drive), Las Vegas (6 hr), or even Denver (8 hr).

[Rick Powell]

You guys do realize that most of the cars you see on the road never leave the metro area you see them in, right?

Think about this–I'm pretty sure absolutely nobody on this forum would think twice about driving from Oklahoma City to Dallas. It's about 200 miles, a straight shot down I-35 for three hours and thirty minutes. Yet not just one but multiple airlines make that flight, and apparently enough people buy tickets that they turn a profit on it.

The people buying those tickets are the people that electric cars appeal to. They don't care that they have to charge the vehicle on a long trip because they don't take those trips by car.

BTS says airline travel is about 13% of highway travel by passenger-miles, bus and rail transit is about 1% and Amtrak about a tenth of a percent. Assuming only 10% of the 5.5 trillion annual automobile passenger miles are from long-haul trips (which would probably allow that local auto trips are in the high 90%s of all auto trips). That's still a hell of a lot of long distance auto trips, on the order of 500 billion passenger miles a year. There IS a great case to be made for EV travel, but there is also a market they will need to improve performance in to serve on a comparable convenience level as today's ICE vehicles.

[kalvado]

It may certainly be true, but still many people would be upset with a car without ability to drive away for the weekend. Large park, beach, relatives in another city may be relatively infrequent events - but highly concentrated ones. Thanksgiving, xmas, sunny summer day are peak medium haul travel events which can, and do,  clog roads and facilities.

Uber and Lyft exist.

They are sort-of-OK locally. Quickly become prohibitive once you're out of city core, though.  But I am talking about a different scenario.  Can you price a trip from Speculator NY to Albany NY on either of them?

[HighwayStar]

It may certainly be true, but still many people would be upset with a car without ability to drive away for the weekend. Large park, beach, relatives in another city may be relatively infrequent events - but highly concentrated ones. Thanksgiving, xmas, sunny summer day are peak medium haul travel events which can, and do,  clog roads and facilities.

Uber and Lyft exist.

What do you think it costs you to Uber to another state? Hell even Boston to Rhode Island can't be cheap.

[HighwayStar]

You guys do realize that most of the cars you see on the road never leave the metro area you see them in, right?

Think about this–I'm pretty sure absolutely nobody on this forum would think twice about driving from Oklahoma City to Dallas. It's about 200 miles, a straight shot down I-35 for three hours and thirty minutes. Yet not just one but multiple airlines make that flight, and apparently enough people buy tickets that they turn a profit on it.

The people buying those tickets are the people that electric cars appeal to. They don't care that they have to charge the vehicle on a long trip because they don't take those trips by car.

BTS says airline travel is about 13% of highway travel by passenger-miles, bus and rail transit is about 1% and Amtrak about a tenth of a percent. Assuming only 10% of the 5.5 trillion annual automobile passenger miles are from long-haul trips (which would probably allow that local auto trips are in the high 90%s of all auto trips). That's still a hell of a lot of long distance auto trips, on the order of 500 billion passenger miles a year. There IS a great case to be made for EV travel, but there is also a market they will need to improve performance in to serve on a comparable convenience level as today's ICE vehicles.

Here is the other problem. Even if they had the range and facilities to do so, the cars themselves are glorified golf carts, not something I would want to cruise at freeway speeds in coast to coast.

[Scott5114]

Maybe they're not for you then?

[kalvado]

You guys do realize that most of the cars you see on the road never leave the metro area you see them in, right?

Think about this–I'm pretty sure absolutely nobody on this forum would think twice about driving from Oklahoma City to Dallas. It's about 200 miles, a straight shot down I-35 for three hours and thirty minutes. Yet not just one but multiple airlines make that flight, and apparently enough people buy tickets that they turn a profit on it.

The people buying those tickets are the people that electric cars appeal to. They don't care that they have to charge the vehicle on a long trip because they don't take those trips by car.

BTS says airline travel is about 13% of highway travel by passenger-miles, bus and rail transit is about 1% and Amtrak about a tenth of a percent. Assuming only 10% of the 5.5 trillion annual automobile passenger miles are from long-haul trips (which would probably allow that local auto trips are in the high 90%s of all auto trips). That's still a hell of a lot of long distance auto trips, on the order of 500 billion passenger miles a year. There IS a great case to be made for EV travel, but there is also a market they will need to improve performance in to serve on a comparable convenience level as today's ICE vehicles.

Here is the other problem. Even if they had the range and facilities to do so, the cars themselves are glorified golf carts, not something I would want to cruise at freeway speeds in coast to coast.

Do you prefer glorified lawnmowers?