Interstate 11

[Bobby5280]

ADOT said construction will last at least two years, but there will be "limited impact" on drivers because most of the work will occur off the freeway.

Uh, it's not a "freeway." It's a friggin' 2-lane road with no access control.

[splashflash]

ADOT said construction will last at least two years, but there will be "limited impact" on drivers because most of the work will occur off the freeway.

Uh, it's not a "freeway." It's a friggin' 2-lane road with no access control.

The news agency is proactive, in a way:
See a spelling or grammatical error in our story? Please click here to report it.

[Bobby5280]

It sounds like the news organization doesn't have the budget to afford an editor.

[The Ghostbuster]

Maybe one of us should be the editor.

[Plutonic Panda]

[silverback1065]

Just watched this, good video!

[Plutonic Panda]

quote author=silverback1065 link=msg=2969094 date=1739650702]

Just watched this, good video!

Just watched this, good video!
[/quote]
Mileage Mike is worth checking out IMO.

[Bobby5280]

I agree it's a pretty good video. The dashcam footage covering the drive from Phoenix to Las Vegas is good. Mileage Mike doesn't dive too deep into the controversial I-11 route proposals South of Wickenburg. He does call the proposals North of Reno a pipe dream. But the proposals South of Wickenburg face long odds of getting built too.

In the short term the US housing industry is in the worst price bubble in 20 years. When (not if) the bubble finally pops it will ruin a lot of big plans, like all the McMansions being proposed way out West of the White Tank Mountains. Over the long term the US is facing a demographic cliff. Generation Z is the smallest generation in many decades. About half of that generation has reached adulthood. Of those new adults, they're getting married and having children at even lower rates than Millennials and Gen-X. What that means over the long run is far fewer people to buy homes.

The whole idea of diverting I-11 way out West of Phoenix is to seed more growth of suburban sprawl. But you still need home buyers for such a plan to succeed. If America's population is rapidly aging and shrinking there won't be enough home buyers to keep these desert housing developments afloat.

[Scott5114]

In the short term the US housing industry is in the worst price bubble in 20 years. When (not if) the bubble finally pops it will ruin a lot of big plans, like all the McMansions being proposed way out West of the White Tank Mountains. Over the long term the US is facing a demographic cliff. Generation Z is the smallest generation in many decades. About half of that generation has reached adulthood. Of those new adults, they're getting married and having children at even lower rates than Millennials and Gen-X. What that means over the long run is far fewer people to buy homes.

Not necessarily. In a lot of Western cities, the housing stock is all bought up by big corporations to rent them out. This is such a problem in Las Vegas that my Congressional rep was sending out mailers pledging to do something to stop it if we reelected him.

On top of that you have the demographic shifts from rural to urban areas. So you end up with housing shortages driving up costs in the cities and tons of vacant houses in places like Temple and Randlett.

[hotdogPi]

So you end up with housing shortages driving up costs in the cities and tons of vacant houses in places like Temple and Randlett.

What was I-14 supposed to do, then?

[RG470]

I think it is absolutely fine if I-11 runs via AZ-85 (Buckeye),  but they should at least upgrade US-60 until AZ-303 and extend AZ-303 south to I-11 past future AZ-30. Although the best (but unlikely) would be a full US-60 (Grand Ave) upgrade.

[Rothman]

In the short term the US housing industry is in the worst price bubble in 20 years. When (not if) the bubble finally pops it will ruin a lot of big plans, like all the McMansions being proposed way out West of the White Tank Mountains. Over the long term the US is facing a demographic cliff. Generation Z is the smallest generation in many decades. About half of that generation has reached adulthood. Of those new adults, they're getting married and having children at even lower rates than Millennials and Gen-X. What that means over the long run is far fewer people to buy homes.

Not necessarily. In a lot of Western cities, the housing stock is all bought up by big corporations to rent them out. This is such a problem in Las Vegas that my Congressional rep was sending out mailers pledging to do something to stop it if we reelected him.

On top of that you have the demographic shifts from rural to urban areas. So you end up with housing shortages driving up costs in the cities and tons of vacant houses in places like Temple and Randlett.

I'd actually like to see the numbers on this.  Although corporate purchases are definitely a decent percentage of purchases, from what I've seen from analyses, that percentage has been exaggerated.

[Scott5114]

I'd actually like to see the numbers on this.  Although corporate purchases are definitely a decent percentage of purchases, from what I've seen from analyses, that percentage has been exaggerated.

What makes it difficult to find numbers is that it varies considerably between metropolitan areas. It's a much higher percentage in CA-NV-AZ than it is anywhere else, though.

[Plutonic Panda]

In the short term the US housing industry is in the worst price bubble in 20 years. When (not if) the bubble finally pops it will ruin a lot of big plans, like all the McMansions being proposed way out West of the White Tank Mountains. Over the long term the US is facing a demographic cliff. Generation Z is the smallest generation in many decades. About half of that generation has reached adulthood. Of those new adults, they're getting married and having children at even lower rates than Millennials and Gen-X. What that means over the long run is far fewer people to buy homes.

Not necessarily. In a lot of Western cities, the housing stock is all bought up by big corporations to rent them out. This is such a problem in Las Vegas that my Congressional rep was sending out mailers pledging to do something to stop it if we reelected him.

On top of that you have the demographic shifts from rural to urban areas. So you end up with housing shortages driving up costs in the cities and tons of vacant houses in places like Temple and Randlett.

Not that I would be against something like that, but has there been any politician that has successfully stopped larger companies from buying up single-family homes?

I know this isn't exactly apples to apples, but the closest thing I can think of is Los Angeles and Palm Springs regulating Airbnb's. But it didn't seem like they did all that much to curb them as there are tons of them still to this day.

[Scott5114]

Not that I would be against something like that, but has there been any politician that has successfully stopped larger companies from buying up single-family homes?

Not as far as I know. I don't think many attempts have even been made.

[Rothman]

I'd actually like to see the numbers on this.  Although corporate purchases are definitely a decent percentage of purchases, from what I've seen from analyses, that percentage has been exaggerated.

What makes it difficult to find numbers is that it varies considerably between metropolitan areas. It's a much higher percentage in CA-NV-AZ than it is anywhere else, though.

Perhaps, but at least state-to-state, the percentages aren't anywhere close to the majority:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT2UAeDqW/

[silverback1065]

In the short term the US housing industry is in the worst price bubble in 20 years. When (not if) the bubble finally pops it will ruin a lot of big plans, like all the McMansions being proposed way out West of the White Tank Mountains. Over the long term the US is facing a demographic cliff. Generation Z is the smallest generation in many decades. About half of that generation has reached adulthood. Of those new adults, they're getting married and having children at even lower rates than Millennials and Gen-X. What that means over the long run is far fewer people to buy homes.

this is actually a problem all over the US now 

Not necessarily. In a lot of Western cities, the housing stock is all bought up by big corporations to rent them out. This is such a problem in Las Vegas that my Congressional rep was sending out mailers pledging to do something to stop it if we reelected him.

On top of that you have the demographic shifts from rural to urban areas. So you end up with housing shortages driving up costs in the cities and tons of vacant houses in places like Temple and Randlett.

[Rothman]

In the short term the US housing industry is in the worst price bubble in 20 years. When (not if) the bubble finally pops it will ruin a lot of big plans, like all the McMansions being proposed way out West of the White Tank Mountains. Over the long term the US is facing a demographic cliff. Generation Z is the smallest generation in many decades. About half of that generation has reached adulthood. Of those new adults, they're getting married and having children at even lower rates than Millennials and Gen-X. What that means over the long run is far fewer people to buy homes.

this is actually a problem all over the US now 

Not necessarily. In a lot of Western cities, the housing stock is all bought up by big corporations to rent them out. This is such a problem in Las Vegas that my Congressional rep was sending out mailers pledging to do something to stop it if we reelected him.

On top of that you have the demographic shifts from rural to urban areas. So you end up with housing shortages driving up costs in the cities and tons of vacant houses in places like Temple and Randlett.

I've also wondered about the effect of undesirable housing stock.  In Syracuse, NY, there's a historical society or organization that has inflicted all sorts of rules that prevents certain old houses in terrible condition from being torn down.  Just recently, there's a property listing where an old Victorian mansion is being sold for way under $100,000, but requires, as they state in the listing, $500,000 to $1m in renovations.  I'll be pleasantly surprised if someone actually buys it, but my bet is that the roof will cave in before even a tentative expression of interest is received.

That said, there are simply also a lot of rust belt cities with old, decrepit, falling-down houses that are on the market for pennies, but no one will buy.  Often wonder if cities would be better off if we made it easier to demolish such and build new.  Sounds like a way to increase housing supply?

[Bobby5280]

Not necessarily. In a lot of Western cities, the housing stock is all bought up by big corporations to rent them out. This is such a problem in Las Vegas that my Congressional rep was sending out mailers pledging to do something to stop it if we reelected him.

That's the present day situation in locations where the housing market hasn't yet turned downward.

The consequences of the demographic cliff I'm talking about (lack of home buyers) won't be felt for at least another decade. The sectors that will feel the costs of a baby bust first will be dropping enrollment at preschools and elementary schools. That's already occurring in more rural areas. We have a lot of small towns in Oklahoma struggling just to keep their one school open and properly staffed.

I'd actually like to see the numbers on this.  Although corporate purchases are definitely a decent percentage of purchases, from what I've seen from analyses, that percentage has been exaggerated.

Private equity companies, such as Blackstone, do not buy up residential homes under their own brand name. They use brands like "Home Partners of America" or a bunch of other LLPs. Invitation Homes owns many thousands of properties. Other kinds of "institutional investors" range from big companies to smaller mom and pop size companies who buy a few homes at a time. There is a significant amount of foreign investment taking place. In January of 2024 it was estimated 30% of homes sold were bought by investors rather than people buying a place to live.

Compound the problem with the situation of R-1 zoning tyranny in most cities and suburbs. It's difficult for developers to build multi-family housing units, especially anything deemed as "affordable housing." That's adding to the situation of forced scarcity.

But it's going to even out over the long term via millions of young adults not getting married and not having kids. Housing costs will probably still be high anyway because there won't be enough housing stock in the size range suitable for single adults and couples without children. Once this nation falls completely into this baby bust syndrome it will be a stubborn, difficult situation to reverse. Political stunts like banning abortion or even banning contraception won't have much effect given the fact nearly half of all young adults have no interest at all in even dating anybody.

[Rothman]

Not necessarily. In a lot of Western cities, the housing stock is all bought up by big corporations to rent them out. This is such a problem in Las Vegas that my Congressional rep was sending out mailers pledging to do something to stop it if we reelected him.

That's the present day situation in locations where the housing market hasn't yet turned downward.

The consequences of the demographic cliff I'm talking about (lack of home buyers) won't be felt for at least another decade. The sectors that will feel the costs of a baby bust first will be dropping enrollment at preschools and elementary schools. That's already occurring in more rural areas. We have a lot of small towns in Oklahoma struggling just to keep their one school open and properly staffed.

I'd actually like to see the numbers on this.  Although corporate purchases are definitely a decent percentage of purchases, from what I've seen from analyses, that percentage has been exaggerated.

Private equity companies, such as Blackstone, do not buy up residential homes under their own brand name. They use brands like "Home Partners of America" or a bunch of other LLPs. Invitation Homes owns many thousands of properties. Other kinds of "institutional investors" range from big companies to smaller mom and pop size companies who buy a few homes at a time. There is a significant amount of foreign investment taking place. In January of 2024 it was estimated 30% of homes sold were bought by investors rather than people buying a place to live.

Compound the problem with the situation of R-1 zoning tyranny in most cities and suburbs. It's difficult for developers to build multi-family housing units, especially anything deemed as "affordable housing." That's adding to the situation of forced scarcity.

But it's going to even out over the long term via millions of young adults not getting married and not having kids. Housing costs will probably still be high anyway because there won't be enough housing stock in the size range suitable for single adults and couples without children. Once this nation falls completely into this baby bust syndrome it will be a stubborn, difficult situation to reverse. Political stunts like banning abortion or even banning contraception won't have much effect given the fact nearly half of all young adults have no interest at all in even dating anybody.

Your stat seems very oversimplified.  See my link above.

That said, single-family zoning does continue to be a huge problem, not that anyone's ideal of housing to live in townhomes or condominiums or rentals.  Wonder if specific zoning for smaller starter homes would be of any help, or would actually exacerbate the problem.

[Plutonic Panda]

I think single-family housing is great. When I buy my first house, I sure don't wanna buy one that's next to an apartment or a condo or a townhouse. I want to be near other single-family houses.

[Max Rockatansky]

When did the term "multi-family housing" become popularized into government speak?  The state of California loves to use said term in lieu of apartments or condominiums.

[hotdogPi]

When did the term "multi-family housing" become popularized into government speak?  The state of California loves to use said term in lieu of apartments or condominiums.

A duplex is multi-family housing but not an apartment or condominium.

[DenverBrian]

The only thing I take issue with in the video is the assertion that I-515 has disappeared in 2024. Throughout 2024, I-515 signage outnumbered I-11 signage on the stretch north of I-215. I last saw this in November; not sure how much more has been changed, but I believe zombie I-515 will be with us for a while yet.

[vdeane]

Political stunts like banning abortion or even banning contraception won't have much effect given the fact nearly half of all young adults have no interest at all in even dating anybody.

There is one policy that would address it; alas, it's anathema to at least half the country (to the point where we're currently doing the opposite).