Is technological regression a thing?

[abefroman329]

It's less the addiction and more the fact that it's bringing together people who shouldn't be brought together in the first place. For instance, I believe school shooters are attaining a level of fame they never would have attained in the era of four TV channels and letters written with pen and paper.

[kalvado]

Looks like our two conversations have now fully diverged. I'm just gonna go ahead and put you down as a "yes."

It took me a couple of days to realize that there's an answer to this question. Yes: see the Roman Empire. (Are there threads on the Appian Way here?)

By this point, I'm fully persuaded that the answer is indeed yes. Since the question has prompted a variety of examples of the phenomenon, and a range of explanations for why the phenomenon occurs, then it is incontrovertible that the phenomenon must, in the first place, exist. And besides the discussion here, I've also found at least a few outside sources that explore this exact topic; so, I can corroborate that the phenomenon is observed and analyzed by those who are in the habit of doing so. It is, indeed, a thing!

Another aspect of your question: are you talking about possibility of technological degradation in general - or if it exists now and here?
There are plenty of historical examples of degradation, mostly coupled to social and/or economic issues. Another presidential election is not going to be enough of a reason for that - until California actually decides to split off after certain twitter user gets a second term.

Oh, and do you mind sharing the references you found?

[mgk920]

Several examples that I like to use as to why older tech is in many ways superior to newer tech.

- Servicing cars.  One example that I love bringing up is doing simple repairs such as replacing the heater core in a car.  A couple of generations ago, into the 1970s, changing the heater core was often a 15-20 minute DIY job, even easier if you had a second person to hold the hoses while they were disconnected.  NOW - it's major surgery.  With my former car (a 1997 Chevy Cavalier), it was 4.5 hours of standard labor for that - the whole dashboard had to be disassembled.  When I had to have that done, my mechanic told me that for some cars (and he specifically said "some Volkswagons"), the heater core was *14.5 hours* of standard labor.  At $75/h, that's almost $1.1K just for the shop to do the work, not including any parts and other supplies!



And today's younger crowd has little of the tinkering with cars interest that they had a generation or two ago due to that massive over complexity of cars, not to say all of the other things that are grabbing their collective attention (on-line gaming, etc) and even incompetent high school counselors who stare down their noses at the highly satisfying - and often very rewarding - blue-collar trades.

- Cash - *HORRORS* to the economy and especially for the modern kids if the power goes out for more than a few minutes.  For an example, one of the first things that went to Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurricane Maria last year was a large transport planeload of cash (as in $1s, $5s, $10s, etc) so that the economy there could function at a bare basic level in the presence of a completely destroyed power supply and telecom network.

I never use 'plastic' for small-time everyday things such as lunch, a beer at a local bar or to refuel the car.

Also besides the above, it is exceedingly difficult to hack cash, as opposed to credit/debit accounts (and far fewer hassles along the way, too!).  And if the card does become lost or unusable, yes my financial losses would be minimal at most, but I'd still be without it for the several days that it would take for me to get a replacement card.

- Broadcast radio - which continues to work when most other forms of mass communications fail.  I have zero use for paid on-line and satellite music services, too.

- GPS - highly useful as a way of knowing where one is in this World and where he or she is going, but way, way, WAAAY too many are becoming overreliant on it and getting into REAL trouble as a result.  Learn maps and geography, people!

- Text messaging v. voice calls and even simple in-person communications.  If I ran a bar, instead of the old cliché of the gun check lockers by the door, I'd do that for cell phones.  'Check your phones at the door' and *TALK* to each other!  It's also über-annoying to see everyone else at work clicking away on their phones (text messaging, game playing, etc) instead of getting stuff done.



I could go on.

Mike

[kalvado]

Several examples that I like to use as to why older tech is in many ways superior to newer tech.

- Servicing cars.  One example that I love bringing up is doing simple repairs such as replacing the heater core in a car.  A couple of generations ago, into the 1970s, changing the heater core was often a 15-20 minute DIY job, even easier if you had a second person to hold the hoses while they were disconnected.  NOW - it's major surgery.  With my former car (a 1997 Chevy Cavalier), it was 4.5 hours of standard labor for that - the whole dashboard had to be disassembled.  When I had to have that done, my mechanic told me that for some cars (and he specifically said "some Volkswagons"), the heater core was *14.5 hours* of standard labor.  At $75/h, that's almost $1.1K just for the shop to do the work, not including any parts and other supplies!



And today's younger crowd has little of the tinkering with cars interest that they had a generation or two ago due to that massive over complexity of cars, not to say all of the other things that are grabbing their collective attention (on-line gaming, etc) and even incompetent high school counselors who stare down their noses at the highly satisfying - and often very rewarding - blue-collar trades.

- Cash - *HORRORS* to the economy and especially for the modern kids if the power goes out for more than a few minutes.  For an example, one of the first things that went to Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurricane Maria last year was a large transport planeload of cash (as in $1s, $5s, $10s, etc) so that the economy there could function at a bare basic level in the presence of a completely destroyed power supply and telecom network.

I never use 'plastic' for small-time everyday things such as lunch, a beer at a local bar or to refuel the car.

Also besides the above, it is exceedingly difficult to hack cash, as opposed to credit/debit accounts (and far fewer hassles along the way, too!).  And if the card does become lost or unusable, yes my financial losses would be minimal at most, but I'd still be without it for the several days that it would take for me to get a replacement card.

- Broadcast radio - which continues to work when most other forms of mass communications fail.  I have zero use for paid on-line and satellite music services, too.

- GPS - highly useful as a way of knowing where one is in this World and where he or she is going, but way, way, WAAAY too many are becoming overreliant on it and getting into REAL trouble as a result.  Learn maps and geography, people!

- Text messaging v. voice calls and even simple in-person communications.  If I ran a bar, instead of the old cliché of the gun check lockers by the door, I'd do that for cell phones.  'Check your phones at the door' and *TALK* to each other!  It's also über-annoying to see everyone else at work clicking away on their phones (text messaging, game playing, etc) instead of getting stuff done.



I could go on.

Mike

How many times did you have cash stollen from your pocket, and how many times that happened with plastic?
And, interestingly enough, when I talked to our canteen operator at work (manager was working the register that day), he explicitly preferred plastic for $4 transaction because it is faster. He also mentioned that my first choice of lunch for $4 makes more money for them than my second choice at $7 - just because first one is mostly self-service as opposed to something made-to-order.

As for service complexity... a parallel example: kerosene lamps can be manually serviced, and candles can be made from scratch at home - unlike incandescent bulbs you cannot make at home, or high-tech LED (as a matter of fact, Nakamura got a Nobel prize for development of technology which is used for LED fabrication). And while kerosene is still a purchased product, beekeeper can make candles with wax at home..  Unlike electric lights which depend on grid..
Do you think switching to LED is a sign of regressive development?

[mgk920]

How many times did you have cash stollen from your pocket, and how many times that happened with plastic?
And, interestingly enough, when I talked to our canteen operator at work (manager was working the register that day), he explicitly preferred plastic for $4 transaction because it is faster. He also mentioned that my first choice of lunch for $4 makes more money for them than my second choice at $7 - just because first one is mostly self-service as opposed to something made-to-order.

As for service complexity... a parallel example: kerosene lamps can be manually serviced, and candles can be made from scratch at home - unlike incandescent bulbs you cannot make at home, or high-tech LED (as a matter of fact, Nakamura got a Nobel prize for development of technology which is used for LED fabrication). And while kerosene is still a purchased product, beekeeper can make candles with wax at home..  Unlike electric lights which depend on grid..
Do you think switching to LED is a sign of regressive development?

As I tell others - if I accidentally drop a $5, $10 or even a $20, yes, I'm out that money.  OTOH, I'm out that money - AND NOTHING ELSE.  No having to call my bank or the card issuer and cancel/replace the card, no waiting for the replacement and being without it, etc.  No hassles.  And in most cases, I likely wouldn't even notice it missing.

And yes, I also often find myself stuck in the checkout line at a store with a small load of stuff when the customers in front are having troubles completing their non-cash transactions.

As for LED lamps, "It depends".  There is another thread in here about bad LED light coloring.  Even then, there are places where incandescent lamps still remain the best choice.

Mike

[formulanone]

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't include motor sports as having its own forms of technological regression. In the dawn of the automobile, contests were held to improve the breed. Make it faster and more reliable, although sometimes at the expense of practicality. As the racing cars achieved higher velocities, accelerations, and cornering speeds, there were greater risks to both drivers and spectators. Sometimes novel ideas were fleshed out and copied; other times, they either breached the rules or new regulations were created to stem wholesale changes from changing the sport altogether or to level the playing field.

So goodbye to 1500-horsepower turbocharged-V12 engines in cars that can flex the underbody with wide rubber seals against the ground via a rear suction turbine and a flexible twin-chassis design with software that can handle and adapt to the changing conditions as the vehicle sheds weight throughout the event while the driver fatigues with each counted lap. But hello to finding solutions and innovations out of the gaps in the rules, along the hard specifications granted in the technical regulations.

It’s less the addiction and more the fact that it’s bringing together people who shouldn’t be brought together in the first place. For instance, I believe school shooters are attaining a level of fame they never would have attained in the era of four TV channels and letters written with pen and paper.

For long periods of time, there's always been fringe media and tabloid trash. The internet - for better or for worse - has no regulation nor filter, and the masses cannot always control themselves. If it's not discussed, nothing stops gravitation to the macabre, the lies, invasion of privacy, towards respect, et cetera.

There's always been psychopaths who only see their own self-gratification with no margins for the regard of others. I'm not totally convinced most of them are interested in fame's fleeting spotlight, but see mutilation as an extremely simple solution to difficult problems they are impatient to solve.

...this is probably for another thread.

[kalvado]

How many times did you have cash stollen from your pocket, and how many times that happened with plastic?
And, interestingly enough, when I talked to our canteen operator at work (manager was working the register that day), he explicitly preferred plastic for $4 transaction because it is faster. He also mentioned that my first choice of lunch for $4 makes more money for them than my second choice at $7 - just because first one is mostly self-service as opposed to something made-to-order.

As for service complexity... a parallel example: kerosene lamps can be manually serviced, and candles can be made from scratch at home - unlike incandescent bulbs you cannot make at home, or high-tech LED (as a matter of fact, Nakamura got a Nobel prize for development of technology which is used for LED fabrication). And while kerosene is still a purchased product, beekeeper can make candles with wax at home..  Unlike electric lights which depend on grid..
Do you think switching to LED is a sign of regressive development?

As I tell others - if I accidentally drop a $5, $10 or even a $20, yes, I'm out that money.  OTOH, I'm out that money - AND NOTHING ELSE.  No having to call my bank or the card issuer and cancel/replace the card, no waiting for the replacement and being without it, etc.  No hassles.  And in most cases, I likely wouldn't even notice it missing.

And yes, I also often find myself stuck in the checkout line at a store with a small load of stuff when the customers in front are having troubles completing their non-cash transactions.

As for LED lamps, "It depends".  There is another thread in here about bad LED light coloring.  Even then, there are places where incandescent lamps still remain the best choice.

Mike

So you are comfortable with paper currency and incandescent? How about going to easy things like gold, silver for cash and candles for light?
It wasn't that long ago that gold and silver were in regular circulation; actually certain range of US coins still has a birthmark of being valued at $20/pound from the days when that was the value of silver in those coins. And if you  accidentally drop a silver or even a golden, yes, you're out that money.  OTOH, I'm out that money - AND NOTHING ELSE.  No having to worry about inflation, about government no longer accepting that paper (didn't happen in US, but definitely happened elsewhere)  No hassles.

[jon daly]

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't include motor sports as having its own forms of technological regression. In the dawn of the automobile, contests were held to improve the breed.

Ditto horse racing. I was alive but too young to remember Secretariat. IIRC, he still holds the record for the Belmont.

[Brandon]

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't include motor sports as having its own forms of technological regression. In the dawn of the automobile, contests were held to improve the breed.

Ditto horse racing. I was alive but too young to remember Secretariat. IIRC, he still holds the record for the Belmont.

And the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

[formulanone]

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn't include motor sports as having its own forms of technological regression. In the dawn of the automobile, contests were held to improve the breed.

Ditto horse racing. I was alive but too young to remember Secretariat. IIRC, he still holds the record for the Belmont.

And the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

Without knowing anything behind the technology behind horse racing, I think Secretariat was just one magnificent specimen of a race horse. I don't think that many rules have changed. Were rules changed after his dominance?

[empirestate]

Another aspect of your question: are you talking about possibility of technological degradation in general - or if it exists now and here?

Both: if it is "a thing"–i.e., an observable principle or law, it will be found both today and throughout history.

Oh, and do you mind sharing the references you found?

Rather than the technologically regressive cutting and pasting of links, I'll just cite the first page of a Google search for "technological regress".

[kalvado]

Another aspect of your question: are you talking about possibility of technological degradation in general - or if it exists now and here?

Both: if it is "a thing"–i.e., an observable principle or law, it will be found both today and throughout history.

You can argue that even supporting existing technology level is closely related to strong economy. Any strong economic issue can cause manufacturing - hence technology - slowdown and whatnot, and economic collapse can kill industries.
That did happen many times in history, too many to list. Those were mostly relatively fast and harsh.
Now if you think that it is a slow ongoing process, I really disagree with you. Goals tend to change, for better or worse..
What MAY be a thing that inspires you is a shift of development areas. Space was a hot topic for a while - but it quickly became clear it is too expensive and return of investment is low. So space exploration is all but abandoned. Can you call it regress? I don't think so, viable parts of it (weather, mapping, GPS, communications) are doing very well. Top achievements may or may not yield meaningful usable outcome. Think about any sports record. Can you imaging anyone running 100 meters in under 10 seconds outside a well equipped stadium? Does that mean humanity as a whole became physically weaker?

[jon daly]

Empire state, it took five years but you caused me to regress. I was searching this forum and you posted this link: https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/topoview/

I've been killing my day using it .

[abefroman329]

Cryptocurrencies are specifically designed to allow users to get around various regulations governing the use of other forms of currency.  If you're going to use them, I highly recommend you verify none of these regulations might actually protect you before you do so.

[Beltway]

Space was a hot topic for a while - but it quickly became clear it is too expensive and return of investment is low. So space exploration is all but abandoned. Can you call it regress? I don't think so, viable parts of it (weather, mapping, GPS, communications) are doing very well.

The unmanned space program is doing fine, as I pointed out.  Kennedy does about 40 orbital launches per year and Wallops does about 8 or 9, and there are other spaceports in other countries.

The manned space programs is where the question is whether it is too expensive and return of investment too low.

[kkt]

Space was a hot topic for a while - but it quickly became clear it is too expensive and return of investment is low. So space exploration is all but abandoned. Can you call it regress? I don't think so, viable parts of it (weather, mapping, GPS, communications) are doing very well.

The unmanned space program is doing fine, as I pointed out.  Kennedy does about 40 orbital launches per year and Wallops does about 8 or 9, and there are other spaceports in other countries.

The manned space programs is where the question is whether it is too expensive and return of investment too low.

Yes.  You can do many unmanned probes for the cost of a single manned mission.  I'd love to see the manned space program continue, but I wouldn't want a single manned mission to swallow up the money for the entire rest of the space program.

Granted, the manned missions are good at inspiring people, and unmanned probes aren't as good.  Even if they seem sexy to me - fantastic pictures of Pluto, Mars, the north pole of Saturn, amazing results from Kepler, etc. - they don't seem to inspire the general public as well.

[hbelkins]

Here's an example: ever notice that you can't even trust a simple phone transfer these days? Say you're on the phone with customer service, tech support or whatnot. They go to transfer you to somebody else's phone, and half the time it doesn't even work and you just get disconnected.

Now, office phone systems were highly sophisticated and reliable, well into and through the '90s–technologically, this issue was long solved. Yet today, although we've made much greater and newer advances in technology, we still frequently use these older systems, except they now exhibit these problems that were formerly solved.

Another example is broadcast television: in the '80s, as I recall, if you were sitting in your living room in a large city and turned on the TV, you'd pick up all the local broadcast stations. If you were farther out of town, you might need an antenna on the roof, but you'd still get all of the stations. (They may be fuzzy, but they'd be there.) Today, that's no longer true, despite the technological problem of transmitting a broadcast signal having been solved long ago.

So my question is, is technological regression an actual thing? I don't mean just from a crotchety "back in my day/get off my lawn" standpoint. Is it an observed phenomenon that, while technology improves overall, specific advances from earlier years actually regress to a less functional state? Has this been written about? What causes it?

On the phone thing, we're about to find out. My office is moving into a new building that will use VOIP instead of a traditional landline phone. One plus is that I will have a direct line, and our current phone system sometimes seems to be put together with two tin cans and a string, but the downside is that whenever the network is down (which is often), the phones will also be down.

In general, technological regression is not necessarily a bad thing. My dad absolutely refused to buy a vehicle with power windows. His reasoning was that if something happens and the electrical system goes bad, the battery dies, a motor fails, or something similar, you're stuck with not being able to roll your window down or up. The last new vehicle he bought was a 1998 Chevy pickup. Manual windows were not available. He was not happy about that at all.

We become too dependent on technology.

[kalvado]

We become too dependent on technology.

Oh, you're a little bit way too late.
Can you - even in principle - grow crops to feed your family? You know how to handle a horse, how to plow? Even seeds are high tech today.
Water. Any idea what you're going to drink once your tap goes dry and grocery store is closed?
Heat. I do have a chimney and a small stash of firewood - but it is impossible to heat house with that. BTW, it also goes to water - if you said "I'll boil water from the stream"
Rolling windows is not even  tip of an iceberg, it is small snowflake...

[formulanone]

Dependence on technology is not necessarily a bad thing; failure to have a Plan B (and sometimes no Plan C) is the troublesome part.

[ilpt4u]

In general, technological regression is not necessarily a bad thing. My dad absolutely refused to buy a vehicle with power windows. His reasoning was that if something happens and the electrical system goes bad, the battery dies, a motor fails, or something similar, you're stuck with not being able to roll your window down or up. The last new vehicle he bought was a 1998 Chevy pickup. Manual windows were not available. He was not happy about that at all.

Not sure that is true about manual/crank windows not available after 1998...

I have driven a 2008 Ford F150, 2016 Chevy Work Van, and 2014 Chevy 3500, and all had manual/crank windows. All were work vehicles, but they came from the Factory that way. GM and Ford will make them, if you want them

[Roadrunner75]

On the phone thing, we're about to find out. My office is moving into a new building that will use VOIP instead of a traditional landline phone. One plus is that I will have a direct line, and our current phone system sometimes seems to be put together with two tin cans and a string, but the downside is that whenever the network is down (which is often), the phones will also be down.

Our office got set up with VOIP phones.  For whatever reason I would randomly get a delay that would lengthen as the conversation continued.  I would be on a conference call talking over people because I would be 3+ seconds behind everyone else.  It drove me nuts and I would often just use my cell phone (who would've thought that would ever be more reliable than a landline?) instead.

[ZLoth]

Here's an example: ever notice that you can't even trust a simple phone transfer these days? Say you're on the phone with customer service, tech support or whatnot. They go to transfer you to somebody else's phone, and half the time it doesn't even work and you just get disconnected.

Now, office phone systems were highly sophisticated and reliable, well into and through the '90s–technologically, this issue was long solved. Yet today, although we've made much greater and newer advances in technology, we still frequently use these older systems, except they now exhibit these problems that were formerly solved.

Unlike computers or mobile phones, office phone systems are not replaced that often, especially on a scale of a large company. You replace a phone system, you have to retain everyone on how to use the system. And, the only way to even begin thinking about a phone system conversion is to have a buy-in by top management.

Another example is broadcast television: in the '80s, as I recall, if you were sitting in your living room in a large city and turned on the TV, you'd pick up all the local broadcast stations. If you were farther out of town, you might need an antenna on the roof, but you'd still get all of the stations. (They may be fuzzy, but they'd be there.) Today, that's no longer true, despite the technological problem of transmitting a broadcast signal having been solved long ago.

For the United States/Canada analog television systems, there were three bands of channels:

• VHF Low (2 to 6) - 54 to 88 MHz (gap between channels 4 and 5)
• VHF High (7 to 13) - 174 to 216 MHz
• UHF (14 to 50) - 470 to 692 MHZ (channel 37 is not used due to radio astronomy)
• UHF-discontinued (51 to 69) - 692 to 806 MHz (removed from television use after digital conversion in 2009)
• UHF-discontinued (70 to 83) - 806 to 890 MHz (removed from television use in 1983)

When stations migrated from analog broadcasting to digital broadcast, many VHF stations were reassigned to UHF frequencies, although they may broadcast a "virtual" channel number. For Sacramento, CA's digital conversion, KCRA-3 was assigned UHF channel 35, KVIE-6 was assigned VHF channel 9, KXTV retained VHF channel 10 (pre-conversion, the Digital channel was 61), and KOVR-13 was assigned channel UHF-25. (I won't cover the UHF channels). The higher in frequency that you go, the more power it requires to travel the same distance. And, mind you, it was the FCC's desire to move all of the television stations to the UHF frequencies.

Here's the fun thing: You can't create more radio spectrum, so you have to allocate what you have available.

So my question is, is technological regression an actual thing? I don't mean just from a crotchety "back in my day/get off my lawn" standpoint. Is it an observed phenomenon that, while technology improves overall, specific advances from earlier years actually regress to a less functional state? Has this been written about? What causes it?

If you are looking for a single big answer, it isn't going to be found. What you are going to find is plenty of small incremental reasons. Some of it involves support for legacy systems, some of it involves the costs of conversion, some of it is resistance to change.

Using credit cards, for instance, the United States was one of the last countries to adopt a chip system for payment processing. It took several major data breaches to force the change, and that took several major steps, first by issuing cards with a chip on them (the cost of a chipped card was around $1 per card, verses a few cents for just a stripe card) while having the merchants argue over who is going to pay for the new payment processing terminals. And, it's still chip-and-sign while Europe has chip-and-pin. Some merchants actually disabled chip because it was taking longer to process the transaction than by swiping. NFC payments by ApplePay or AndroidPay (which uses a virtual credit card number)? My local vet and BevMo accepts NFC payments, WalMart says **** NO!

As for digital television conversion... it was first stated with the Telecommunications Act of 1996, with the original conversion date being December 31st, 2006. It was delayed several times until June 12, 2009 due to numerous reasons.

Plus, people are reluctant to adopt new technology because it changes how they do things. I have purchased all seven seasons of Golden Girls for my mother on DVD and have even placed the episodes on a media server. Yet, despite several efforts to show her how to handle Plex, what does she do? Every night, she turns on Lifetime Television and watches Golden Girls. How about granny in the super market who insists... on.... hand..... writing........ the........... check.............. for.................... her................ groceries (and still believing in the levitating check float)? Will check die? No, because some small businesses can't afford the credit card processing fees. Want to pay a bill with a credit card with your local government agency? There's a surcharge for that because they use a third party processing agency.

[kkt]

Some people are slow handwriting checks... some people are slow getting out and inserting their credit cards.  Checks can be just as fast as cards:  have everything filled out except the amount before the cashier is finished ringing up.

[kalvado]

Some people are slow handwriting checks... some people are slow getting out and inserting their credit cards.  Checks can be just as fast as cards:  have everything filled out except the amount before the cashier is finished ringing up.

I've seen machines at checkout which take a blank check and fill out everything except signature. Slightly slower than a card, but not bad at all.

[empirestate]

Now if you think that it is a slow ongoing process, I really disagree with you.

I don't think that it is, no. (And I don't think that it's not.) For some reason, you seem to be arguing a number of points that aren't part of my question.

Can you call it regress? I don't think so[...]

That's another one. If you can't call it regress, no problem. Like I said, we can just call it Elmer, in which case my question simply becomes "is Elmer a thing?"

Now, it so happens that Elmer is, indeed, a thing–and it actually is called regress (or regression). Whether that's an apt name is outside the scope of my question, but it's worth knowing that it is, in fact, the name that many observers use.

Can you imaging anyone running 100 meters in under 10 seconds outside a well equipped stadium? Does that mean humanity as a whole became physically weaker?

I don't know if it does; again, since that's outside the scope of my question, I haven't considered it. The effect of Elmer would be observed on a small scale; it wouldn't be something that describes human progress overall.