Coronavirus pandemic

[Max Rockatansky]

So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

I think we currently lack enough data to definitively know. 
here's an interesting article regarding various scenarios about how this plays out:
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-social-distancing-over-back-to-normal/608752/

I don't think we really ever get back to normal for a couple years and even then, society is going to have a shared sense of PTSD regarding what we'll have gone through.

But I do hope cases peak by June.  People need to take precautions seriously.  A friend of a friend just passed away and he was only 40.  This is deadly serious.

My primary concern in the aftermath of all this with COVID-19 is this really how people are going to react when the next big virus (even a seasonal one) rolls around?  Things tend to be cooling off gradually in day to day life now that there is some expectations on what to anticipate.  But that said, repeated instances of doing things like closing businesses and closing schools will have a huge negative effect no matter how well intended they may be.  Will society at large be so willing to do what is being done next time?

[kalvado]

A couple sources said the new cases will probably peak in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's moving faster than some people thought.

That would mean mass graves in NYC....

[oscar]

The Emperor says by Easter. I'm sticking close to home until the real experts say it's OK to travel. I've got lots of cleaning I can do and maybe prep some stuff for e-bay.

What the President says may not mean much on the ground, given that state and local governments largely control the pandemic response. At least in my area, they are taking Federal guidance with a grain of salt, and are unlikely to go along with an Easter target unless the data quickly start looking a lot better than now.

[DaBigE]

So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

It really depends on what your chosen endpoint is.

LIke JN Winkler said, it depends on your point of reference. There have been other viruses/diseases that in theory were eliminated, only to make a comeback years later. If/when a vaccine comes out for COVID-19, I'm curious what the anti-vaxers will do. Will COVID-19 be serious enough for them to change their tune?

[ftballfan]

A couple sources said the new cases will probably peak in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's moving faster than some people thought.

I'm kind of leaning that way as most of the new cases being reported were already being spread prior to mass shutdowns.

Speaking of travel, I went (by car) to Florida the last weekend of February (when there were very few cases nationwide). I went to Universal for five days and I also went to an after-hours event at the Magic Kingdom. While at the parks, I noticed hand sanitizer stations being placed in high-traffic places and more frequent cleaning. Disney and Universal announced they were closing the night before I left Florida (which also happened to be my last day at Universal). I noticed some precautions being taken on my drive home, such as doors being propped open at rest areas. The day after I arrived back in Michigan, the state announced that bars and restaurants would have to go take-out only (which is in effect until at least April 13).

[kwellada]

A couple sources said the new cases will probably peak in about 2 or 3 weeks. It's moving faster than some people thought.

What were those sources, incidentally?  Curious to see what data sets they're using. 
Don't get me wrong, that'd be awesome if we peak in that time frame.  I'm just skeptical because the trajectory is still on a strong climb and this stuff is exponential in growth.

[bandit957]

What were those sources, incidentally?  Curious to see what data sets they're using. 
Don't get me wrong, that'd be awesome if we peak in that time frame.  I'm just skeptical because the trajectory is still on a strong climb and this stuff is exponential in growth.

I think Cuomo said it would peak then. If it climbs faster though, it would peak earlier. It would overwhelm hospitals, but it would peak earlier.

[Scott5114]

There are a few reports of human to pet transmission by now, showing that virus jumps between species, and eating massive amount of wildelife may be an unrelated issue to the case at hand.

My understanding is that these have been debunked as false positives due to virus material from humans making contact with the animals. Animals are not actually contracting the disease. That is to say, a cat or dog can only "get" COVID-19 in the same way a keyboard or door handle could.

CDC hasn't been exploring this much–more important things to do–and thus is using vague and noncommittal language about it. My wife is a former vet tech, though, and still has contacts in the field; she said that a major veterinary disease-testing company has been conducting their own studies that show that pets do not contract COVID-19.

[LM117]

A stay-at-home order has been issued in NC, which will take effect this Monday at 5:00pm and last until April 29. The order also bans gatherings of more than 10 people and requires people to stay at least 6 feet apart from others.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29

[sprjus4]

A stay-at-home order has been issued in NC, which will take effect this Monday at 5:00pm and last until April 29. The order also bans gatherings of more than 10 people and requires people to stay at least 6 feet apart from others.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29

Willing to bet Virginia will be next.

[kphoger]

I can't speak for Kphoger, but as someone who lives in the same county he does, I wonder if your perspective is colored by Washington state being a week or two ahead of the curve in terms of measures to contain spread.

[...]

Meanwhile, on the other forum, we had a woman talking as late as March 15 about how she and her husband were in Dallas hoping to fly back to Burkina Faso (which they call home, I think because they are missionaries), and another was worrying about whether she and her husband would be able to go on a cruise with their kids and grandkids in early April (!).

Heck, just two days before we left–Thursday 3/13–one of our members was flown out to Pittsburgh for a two-day conference.  (One more reason I was stressed out this trip:  he was scheduled to fly back into Wichita around midnight the night before we left, with a tight connection in Dallas.)  His conference ended up being canceled, but that was a last-minute decision, and he ended up visiting several museums in Pittsburgh to pass the time instead.  Yes, boys and girls, museums in Pittsburgh were still open the day before we left to go to Mexico.  It certainly wasn't Lockdown Land in this part of the country yet.  At that point, the virus was mainly seen as a Pacific Northwest and New York State thing.

So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I'm guessing mid-July.

It really depends on what your chosen endpoint is.

LIke JN Winkler said, it depends on your point of reference. There have been other viruses/diseases that in theory were eliminated, only to make a comeback years later. If/when a vaccine comes out for COVID-19, I'm curious what the anti-vaxers will do. Will COVID-19 be serious enough for them to change their tune?

News outlets are reporting that somewhere around 10% of coronavirus patients in China who were given the all-clear based on a negative test result are now testing positive again.

[kwellada]

I think Cuomo said it would peak then. If it climbs faster though, it would peak earlier. It would overwhelm hospitals, but it would peak earlier.

Do you know if he meant for NY or the US in general?  It would make sense for NY to peak in that time frame, just given other regions and their curves. 

[LM117]

A stay-at-home order has been issued in NC, which will take effect this Monday at 5:00pm and last until April 29. The order also bans gatherings of more than 10 people and requires people to stay at least 6 feet apart from others.

https://governor.nc.gov/news/governor-cooper-announces-statewide-stay-home-order-until-april-29

Willing to bet Virginia will be next.

Agreed, but it doesn't look like it will be anytime soon.

https://www.wtvr.com/news/coronavirus/virginia-governor-explains-why-he-has-not-issued-stay-at-home-order

[bandit957]

I think Cuomo said it would peak then. If it climbs faster though, it would peak earlier. It would overwhelm hospitals, but it would peak earlier.

Do you know if he meant for NY or the US in general?  It would make sense for NY to peak in that time frame, just given other regions and their curves.

I don't know if he meant just New York, or if he meant new cases or deaths. If he meant deaths, the new cases would peak earlier.

[nexus73]

I can't speak for Kphoger, but as someone who lives in the same county he does, I wonder if your perspective is colored by Washington state being a week or two ahead of the curve in terms of measures to contain spread.

[...]

Meanwhile, on the other forum, we had a woman talking as late as March 15 about how she and her husband were in Dallas hoping to fly back to Burkina Faso (which they call home, I think because they are missionaries), and another was worrying about whether she and her husband would be able to go on a cruise with their kids and grandkids in early April (!).

Heck, just two days before we left—Thursday 3/13—one of our members was flown out to Pittsburgh for a two-day conference.  (One more reason I was stressed out this trip:  he was scheduled to fly back into Wichita around midnight the night before we left, with a tight connection in Dallas.)  His conference ended up being canceled, but that was a last-minute decision, and he ended up visiting several museums in Pittsburgh to pass the time instead.  Yes, boys and girls, museums in Pittsburgh were still open the day before we left to go to Mexico.  It certainly wasn't Lockdown Land in this part of the country yet.  At that point, the virus was mainly seen as a Pacific Northwest and New York State thing.

So how long do y’all think Covid-19 will stick around for?

Last week, I guessed late April.

Now I’m guessing mid-July.

It really depends on what your chosen endpoint is.

LIke JN Winkler said, it depends on your point of reference. There have been other viruses/diseases that in theory were eliminated, only to make a comeback years later. If/when a vaccine comes out for COVID-19, I'm curious what the anti-vaxers will do. Will COVID-19 be serious enough for them to change their tune?

News outlets are reporting that somewhere around 10% of coronavirus patients in China who were given the all-clear based on a negative test result are now testing positive again.

That bit of news reminds me of a joke: What's the last word you want to hear in a nuclear reactor control room?  "Whoops!".

Rick

[webny99]

So how long do y'all think Covid-19 will stick around for?
Last week, I guessed late April.
Now I'm guessing mid-July.

[...]

I expect to see some relaxation of lockdowns late in the summer, depending on how effective they are in stopping further spread and allowing the health care system to catch up with backlogged cases, but I don't expect a return to full normal until there is a vaccine or a treatment (effective across all age groups) that ends the capacity of this disease to drive ICU utilization.

I think that is the increasingly obvious correct answer, and it's surprising that such has not been more widely accepted and acknowledged yet.

[J N Winkler]

This has been receiving a fair amount of attention across the news media:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It shows date of projected peak for the US as a whole (April 14) and various states (states with less aggressive growth in case count will peak later but are less likely to overrun treatment resource).

I think it may be optimistic, depending on how much the lockdowns "leak," but even so it forecasts a little over one month (April 2 to May 5) with more than 1000 US deaths per day.

[bandit957]

This has been receiving a fair amount of attention across the news media:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

It shows date of projected peak for the US as a whole (April 14) and various states (states with less aggressive growth in case count will peak later but are less likely to overrun treatment resource).

I think it may be optimistic, depending on how much the lockdowns "leak," but even so it forecasts a little over one month (April 2 to May 5) with more than 1000 US deaths per day.

So I figure new cases will peak around April 9. I usually look at new cases, because I can at least do my part to prevent that by not going around sneezing on people. I can't prevent the deaths of people who are already ill, because I'm not a doctor.

[kphoger]

Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.

[vdeane]

News outlets are reporting that somewhere around 10% of coronavirus patients in China who were given the all-clear based on a negative test result are now testing positive again.

The reports of reinfection make me wonder if coronavirus is like Shingles, laying dormant and potentially reactivating after recovery instead of going away.  Or maybe it's like the common cold (which is a coronavirus, after all) and people don't really build immunity to it, which could be problematic for counting on a vaccine to save us from lockdowns.  If so, we might be stuck with a choice between letting lots of people die, permanent social distancing, or massively increased hospital ICU capacity.

[RobbieL2415]

Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.

Note also that 50,000 die each year from norovirus, and that virus group has been known since the late 60's.

[D-Dey65]

I just found a news report about a kid who's making masks for doctors and nurses with a 3-D Printer;
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2020/03/27/pasco-teen-uses-3d-printer-to-make-reusable-masks-to-protect-against-covid-19

He's trying to get money to make more:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/3d-printed-hospital-masks?utm_source=customer&utm_medium=copy_link-tip&utm_campaign=p_cp+share-sheet

He's also offering the software for it to other people with 3-D Printers. Elmhurst Hospital could really use this, but so could many others.

[kalvado]

Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.

Note also that 50,000 die each year from norovirus, and that virus group has been known since the late 60's.

Think about it in such a way - this is despite most draconian restrictions in decades; covid already kills more people per day than any other infection - and keeps growing. NYC will be a hell on Earth before this is over. It is already pretty hellish.

[ftballfan]

Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.

IMHO, the number of indirect deaths might be as much if not more than COVID-19 deaths. Two weeks from now, we'll have a better idea on how this will play out.

[Max Rockatansky]

Still nowhere near the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 deaths so far this season due to influenza.  Nor do I anticipate the death toll of the coronavirus will come anywhere near approaching those numbers.

IMHO, the number of indirect deaths might be as much if not more than COVID-19 deaths. Two weeks from now, we'll have a better idea on how this will play out.

So if the COVID-19 death totals come out to less than the current flu will it be declared a "Social success"  or "overreaction?"   I'm sure there would be plenty of spin both ways.