Coronavirus pandemic

[LM117]

[tradephoric]

Starting the week of March 22nd the country was effectively shutting down.  Two weeks later the daily new cases in the US peaked on April 4th suggesting the shut down was effective at stopping the spread.  Since then the daily new cases have dropped by 25%.  Even if we open up the country tomorrow it's going to take another two weeks before we see a potential increase in new cases, but until then the daily new cases in the US will continue dropping. It's my belief that once you reopen the country you won't see a spike in daily new cases but rather a plateau. 



Ultimately we have proven that we can control the spread of this virus by shutting down the country.  That's great but we can't keep this country shut down.  Even if the country reopens tomorrow, the contagion rate of the virus will be regulated by the simple fact that there is a healthy fear of this virus that didn't exist before the first wave of infections.  Sure, there are protesters but even many of them are wearing masks when they go out to protest.  Honestly, every day the economy doesn't reopen, the amount of protests will increase and that could have a bigger impact on how much this virus spreads vs if the country just began to slowly reopen (which we will eventually have to do anyways so let's start already).  These health experts can't stop the protests, so plug into the models if it would be more contagious to keep this country locked down and deal with an ever increasing number of protests, or if it would simply be better to slowly open things back up.

[tradephoric]

For those who do not survive the virus, the average number of days from onset of symptoms until death is 18 1/2 days.  With daily new cases peaking in America on April 4th, we would expect to see a peak in daily deaths around April 21st.  Hopefully daily deaths go down from here on out.

[Max Rockatansky]

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

[kalvado]

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

Autopsy done -when? Did they have bodies in cold storage until recently, did they do exhumations, or those are previously collected samples? If later, why do they call it autopsy?

[ftballfan]

The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.

[Max Rockatansky]

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

Autopsy done -when? Did they have bodies in cold storage until recently, did they do exhumations, or those are previously collected samples? If later, why do they call it autopsy?

None that was clear to in the L.A. Times article.  The AP picked up the story also, I'm not sure if they have more information.

[Roadgeekteen]

The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.

Related to that, I heard that the 49ers losing the super bowl could have saved many lives, as a parade attracts tons of people to one spot.

[Max Rockatansky]

The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.

Related to that, I heard that the 49ers losing the super bowl could have saved many lives, as a parade attracts tons of people to one spot.

Seems to be the case, I saw that same article a couple weeks backing you're referring to.

[Roadgeekteen]

The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.

Related to that, I heard that the 49ers losing the super bowl could have saved many lives, as a parade attracts tons of people to one spot.

Seems to be the case, I saw that same article a couple weeks backing you're referring to.

Yeah, Kansas City is inland enough so that covid took longer to reach it.

[J N Winkler]

California autopsy finding (based on tissue samples retained after death) that first COVID-19 death in US was likely February 6 rather than February 29 = increased likelihood that COVID-19 was spreading silently well before first cases were confirmed = more support for motivated reasoning in favor of "herd immunity is just around the corner: let's open it up now."

[hotdogPi]

California autopsy finding (based on tissue samples retained after death) that first COVID-19 death in US was likely February 6 rather than February 29 = increased likelihood that COVID-19 was spreading silently well before first cases were confirmed = more support for motivated reasoning in favor of "herd immunity is just around the corner: let's open it up now."

As I said earlier, herd immunity reduces R0. Estimated R0 for COVID-19 with no preventative measures is 2.2-2.7. If R0 is 2.5, that means that 1-1/2.5 = 60% of the population needs to have had it at some point for R0 to fall below 1. We're nowhere near 60%.

[Max Rockatansky]

California autopsy finding (based on tissue samples retained after death) that first COVID-19 death in US was likely February 6 rather than February 29 = increased likelihood that COVID-19 was spreading silently well before first cases were confirmed = more support for motivated reasoning in favor of "herd immunity is just around the corner: let's open it up now."

As I said earlier, herd immunity reduces R0. Estimated R0 for COVID-19 with no preventative measures is 2.2-2.7. If R0 is 2.5, that means that 1-1/2.5 = 60% of the population needs to have had it at some point for R0 to fall below 1. We're nowhere near 60%.

Even still that news is going to put a ton of pressure to start opening things back up.  Some of the cities might backtrack on their orders but I doubt the Governor would given he has a pretty clear stance on.  I was reading somewhere this morning that Riverside County was looking at opening at least a partially in the near future.  I was kind of surprised given how close that is to Los Angeles County which is the virus hot spot in California. 

[webny99]

It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

[bandit957]

It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

I compare it to a bike with a wrecked front wheel. The wheel will be wobbly after the wreck, but it will still be somewhat usable until it gets to the shop.

[Max Rockatansky]

It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time. 

[kalvado]

It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time.

Sure, question is finding the new balance - and that is means gradual reopening. Schools are the toughest part.

[Max Rockatansky]

It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time.

Sure, question is finding the new balance - and that is means gradual reopening. Schools are the toughest part.

Yes, the problem is that the two competing views are having issues finding a middle ground.  But then again that is just how most things in life tend to go whenever there is two views on any issue. 

[vdeane]

The following states have not officially called off school for the rest of the year: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming

I'm surprised that NJ and NY (which are top-two in cases) haven't called off the remainder of the school year.

A couple news agencies are reporting some autopsies from those who died in early February in Santa Clara County are testing positive for COVID-19.  That is a couple weeks in advance of the first documented deaths in Washington state. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autopsies-reveal-first-confirmed-u-042339932.html

This would mean we might be a little closer to herd immunity, especially along the west coast, since those people who died in early February were likely exposed in mid-January if not earlier. Considering what we know now about how it is spread, it was likely spreading in Wuhan in early to mid December 2019 (and Wuhan didn't get locked down until around January 21) and had likely made it to Europe and North America around the Christmas/New Year holiday season.

School in NY goes through late June.  Lots of time between now and then.  The current stay at home order is only through May 15 - it hasn't been extended further yet.  Actually, that will be interesting, since Cuomo is talking about a regional approach to reopening.  And don't forget that school is de facto child care for most people.  It's going to be hard to have people come back to the office if they also have to be home supervising their children and guiding them through distance learning.

It's important to  realize that "opening up" isn't going to be something that happens overnight. It's going to be a very gradual process that takes months, at a minimum. So I do find it mildly annoying that it keeps getting framed like we're a flip of a switch away from being "back to normal". Yeah, right. The American economy isn't going to even resemble its 2019 state until we have a vaccine, and even then, there will be many shifts that endure and become the new normal.

It's kind of presumptive that a vaccine will be anything near term at all.  Even if one gets made it will take forever and a day to distribute.  There are only going to be more voices calling for opening things back up and far less people willing to accept "new normal"  as time goes on.  If we're drawing comparisons to something like the Spanish Flu, a lot of people weren't willing to wait back then either.  I'm not offering an opinion other than that there shouldn't be a massive amount of shock that large chunk of the population isn't really willing to carry on with restrictions. 

Aside from all these crazy people running around protesting from a "socially safe"  distance in their cars there is a lot interests out there that are far more legitimate.  It's hard for me to look at someone who has lost their job or business who wants to reopen things and to tell them that they are wrong for thinking that.  There isn't unlimited funding for things like stimulus checks, business loans, and unemployment relief.  At some point the amount of damage that is being done by mass hospitalization (I say that given the stance of most orders has been to slow hospitalization over deaths) is going to be outweighed by other interests.  What you're seeing now is those interests starting to push back, they will only get louder over time. 

9/11 happened long enough ago that there will be people voting in this year's presidential election who weren't even born yet when it happened.  People still accept the "new normal" from that.  This is even bigger than 9/11.  Sure, a full lockdown can't stick around forever... but I wouldn't be surprised if we're still wearing masks in public, not having large gatherings, and dealing with annoying things like one-way aisles in the grocery store for a long, long time.

[hbelkins]

Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

[Max Rockatansky]

Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that if the American Revolution happened today, most people would side with the British.

Wasn't close to half siding with the British anyways?  That war essentially was British citizens committing treason. 

[jemacedo9]

Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...

[kalvado]

Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...

I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?

[bandit957]

I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?

I think there might actually be 3 different sides to this.

[hotdogPi]

Reading this thread, comments on various news stories and social media posts, etc., convinces me even more that we're as close to another Civil War as we've ever been...and if more people get desperate facing life-and-death (as both sides are claiming, and there is some validity to that claim on both sides)...

I just wonder how the split would go. It wouldn't be as simple as Mason-Dixon line. East and West coasts against flyover states, or something more complex?

Team Blue: WA, OR, CA (some inland places in all three states will unofficially be on Team Red), parts of MN, WI, MN, and PA unofficially (it's easier to stay than to secede, and all four states are split politically), all of DC, MD, DE, NY, NJ, and New England (NH doesn't want to be surrounded by the enemy on all sides), and IL and VA will split in two. If Canada is on Team Blue, both sides have entirely contiguous territory. (Note that NM and CO would be on Team Red for the same reason that NH is on Team Blue – they don't want to be surrounded by the enemy.)