Coronavirus pandemic

[kphoger]

Without an order, it wouldn't have happened.

Without the order, the world would still have slowed to a crawl, but the effect wouldn't have been to the same extent (such as it is) as it has been, and perhaps not as long.

This is basically what I'm trying to say.  You guys paint the picture that, without government orders, the economy would have shut down to the same extent that it has.  I'm merely suggesting that it would have shut down to a lesser extent than it has, and with minimal difference in actual spread of the disease because most of the businesses that remained open would have initiated heightened safety protocols (as those businesses that are allowed to remain open have done, with or without government orders to initiate such protocols).

If we had 20 or 50 or 100 times more people sick and dying, how many meat plant workers, crop pickers, truck drivers, warehouse and store workers, and other essential people would be willing and able to go to work and keep things moving?

more than zero

more than one

You and someone else?

Oh, come on.  Even if only 20% of workers were still willing to go to work, that would be a heck of a lot more than two people.

The industry I work in is considered essential business.  I'm working from home because I have a desk job, but the "real" work is done by contractors out in the fields, interacting with customers.  The MSOs we work for very quickly and surprisingly well developed new protocols to adapt to the new situation, both technological and procedural.  Furthermore, our field techs have been given the ability to take a hiatus from work for weeks at a time without fear of punitive action or loss of their position in our workforce.  As such, the majority of our field techs have been willing and able to continue working, they're doing so quite safely, and our customers have appreciated both our willingness and ability to continue serving their needs and also the increased safety measures we've implemented for both their sake and our own.  I really don't see why it's so hard to believe that businesses can make this sort of accommodation and still stay operational.

If the infection rate were 20, 50, or 100 times higher than it is, then...
  (1)  everyone's opinions on the situation, including my own, might not be same that they actually are now, and
  (2)  a lot more people would be stepping out of the workforce, but that doesn't mean it would drop to zero.

I believe that more businesses closed because they were forced to close by the government than would have closed if not forced to.  I believe that fewer people are spending their money at businesses because they're prevented by the government than would be if not prevented.  Are you really that naive, that you believe no businesses would have found a way to make it work?

I wonder if your perspective in this regard is colored by being out of the country when the first round of voluntary closures occurred.  We have not been to one of our standbys for Friday takeaway for over six weeks, for example, because they decided to close completely the weekend of March 15-16, even though they have always had the freedom to sell food to go, and no restaurants in our county were required to close their dining areas until March 25.

On March 14, I traveled southbound through Texas, finding every restaurant open for business and not hearing even a rumor that they might close down.  Six days later, I crossed the border northbound to find that the governor had ordered all restaurants in the state to shut down dine-in services.  Sorry, but I find it difficult to believe that every single one of those restaurants (1) would have closed their doors in that six-day period of their own accord and (2) could not have found a safe way to remain open for dine-in service with perhaps a one- or two-week hiatus to develop and implement a strategy.

That says something when you care more about a dead economy than dead citizens.

Quit painting it in black and white.  There is a difference between a 2% dip in the economy and a 20% dip in the economy, and there is a difference between 1000 dead citizens and 100,000 dead citizens. 

Your argument is basically like saying people who resist lowering the speed limit care more about driving slower than dead citizens.

I don't believe that destroying the livelihood of 20 million citizens is necessarily better than preventing 70,000 deaths.  Maybe you disagree with that, and I totally understand.  But at least be honest enough to admit that you wouldn't believe destroying the livelihood of 20 million citizens is better than preventing, say, 70 deaths.

Aren't you sort of proving my point that it's the shutdown that killed the economy?

No.  Did you even read the article I linked to?  Here it is again: https://thebulwark.com/we-cannot-reopen-america/

Do you seriously think people are just going to go back to normal when stay at home orders lift?  Most won't.  Here's another article, specifically addressing that:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/306053/americans-hesitant-return-normal-short-term.aspx

So: if people aren't willing to return to normal and spend money, does it really matter if the economy is "open" again?  And this didn't start with the stay at home orders, either.  The increased demands for groceries as people stopped eating out began two weeks before stay at home orders began here.  Heck, just look at the Utica roadmeet - it was cancelled a whole week before NY's stay at home order was extended to include the date it had been scheduled for.  It wasn't the stay at home order that caused the cancellation - if it was, then it wouldn't have been cancelled until a week later - but the pandemic.

Yes, I read the article.  Except for perhaps the first couple of lines, the entire thing is about re-opening–not about what caused the halt in the first place.  There's a difference between the economy losing a leg and the economy being shot in the head and loaded into a wood-chipper.

[kphoger]

For what it's worth...  Weighing the death toll against injury to the economy, the numbers to compare are ones we don't even know:

How many people currently unemployed due to the virus are only unemployed due to government-mandated shutdowns?
How many people currently unemployed due to the virus would have lost their jobs anyway?
How many lives have been saved because hospitals weren't overrun to the extent they might have otherwise been?
How many lives have been saved because the actual transmission rate of the virus has been reduced?

Without knowing these numbers, one doesn't really know what to compare.

[kalvado]

For what it's worth...  Weighing the death toll against injury to the economy, the numbers to compare are ones we don't even know:

How many people currently unemployed due to the virus are only unemployed due to government-mandated shutdowns?
How many people currently unemployed due to the virus would have lost their jobs anyway?
How many lives have been saved because hospitals weren't overrun to the extent they might have otherwise been?
How many lives have been saved because the actual transmission rate of the virus has been reduced?

Without knowing these numbers, one doesn't really know what to compare.

Now imagine yourself in governor/POTUS position, who had to answer those questions a month ago and somehow act based on that answer...
For one, NYS governor looks like he gained 10 years within the past 2 months..

[Max Rockatansky]

For what it's worth...  Weighing the death toll against injury to the economy, the numbers to compare are ones we don't even know:

How many people currently unemployed due to the virus are only unemployed due to government-mandated shutdowns?
How many people currently unemployed due to the virus would have lost their jobs anyway?
How many lives have been saved because hospitals weren't overrun to the extent they might have otherwise been?
How many lives have been saved because the actual transmission rate of the virus has been reduced?

Without knowing these numbers, one doesn't really know what to compare.

Now imagine yourself in governor/POTUS position, who had to answer those questions a month ago and somehow act based on that answer...
For one, NYS governor looks like he gained 10 years within the past 2 months..

Couldn't the same be said about a lot of high political offices in general?  I know that has been said of Presidency in the past.   Stress tends to whether people down and can do so visibility in short windows of time. 

[J N Winkler]

Not going to try to argue the counterfactual scenario, though I do want to address "economic activity will be down 18% for as long as we stay shut down" - I do not think this is true, since it falsely presumes the economic impacts of being shut down are linear with time when they most certainly are not. When businesses shut down, they have to draw down cash reserves / take on debt to continue paying their bills. They can only do this for so long before they go under. Likewise, longer shutdowns equal greater losses in tax revenue equal greater impacts to state/county/local budgets equal more need to curtail government services and other spending. A shutdown that lasts twice as long will be more than twice as painful, ultimately.

To be sure, an 18% drop in economic activity is a very short-range extrapolation, and when all is said and done, I think a share of business failures and personal bankruptcies will be traced to poor implementation of the fiscal measures (stimulus checks, low-interest loans for small businesses, enhanced unemployment payments, paycheck protection, etc.) that were designed to float the least financially resilient among us through this crisis.  The social safety net has withered, taking advantage of the small measure of economic stabilization that is available through government programs is an unreasonably high-friction process, too large a share of US households live on the edge and rely on debt not just for bridging temporary deficits but also for lifestyle maintenance, etc.

Over the medium term, however, I think social distancing requirements will have a larger impact not just on the size but also the structure of the economy.  Large segments of the secondary sector operate to business models that do not allow profitability while maintaining social distancing.  There are disturbing indications that the same may be true for key elements of the primary sector, such as meatpacking, where we have seen the companies claim they are adhering to strict social distancing and making PPE available to their workers even as outbreaks at their plants reach the thousands of confirmed cases and workers say they are required to work shoulder-to-shoulder with inadequate PPE.

On March 14, I traveled southbound through Texas, finding every restaurant open for business and not hearing even a rumor that they might close down.  Six days later, I crossed the border northbound to find that the governor had ordered all restaurants in the state to shut down dine-in services.  Sorry, but I find it difficult to believe that every single one of those restaurants (1) would have closed their doors in that six-day period of their own accord and (2) could not have found a safe way to remain open for dine-in service with perhaps a one- or two-week hiatus to develop and implement a strategy.

See, that's what I mean--you were out of the country while all the heavy stuff was happening.  I can't speak for Texas, but here in Wichita Sunday, March 15, was the last reasonably normal day.  The closure of the local Y (March 16) and the public library (March 17) were all voluntary.  (Some suburban libraries continued to offer drive-thru or foyer service, but all had ceased to do so by the time closure was mandated.)  Denise Neil's "who's doing what" list in the Wichita Eagle was about one-third full closure by the time the county issued its order prohibiting dine-in, which was on March 25.

Even with the county now looking to phase out stay-at-home sooner rather than later, we are seeing footdragging from the business community locally.  Businesses don't want to have fresh outbreaks traced back to their premises, they don't want the community as a whole to bounce back into lockdown, and they consider themselves shielded from liability for as long as a mandatory order is in effect.

[kphoger]

Even with the county now looking to phase out stay-at-home sooner rather than later, we are seeing footdragging from the business many businesses community locally.  Businesses don't want to have fresh outbreaks traced back to their premises, they don't want the community as a whole to bounce back into lockdown, and they consider themselves shielded from liability for as long as a mandatory order is in effect.

Edited to make it clear that not all businesses do the same thing.

[kphoger]

the public library (March 17) ... (Some suburban libraries continued to offer drive-thru or foyer service, but all had ceased to do so by the time closure was mandated.)

Speaking of which...  I have a library book that's probably overdue by now.  Do you know how the library is handling this issue?

[tradephoric]

A recent CNN article was critical of Sweden's handling of the pandemic noting that Sweden has enforced far fewer restrictions than other Nordic countries while having a "significantly higher"  death rate.  Here is the main graphic used in the article:


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/europe/sweden-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-intl/index.html

Sweden currently having a higher death rate per 100k residents compared to their Nordic neighbors — perhaps due to the virus being more prevalent in response to Sweden's looser restrictions — doesn't mean their strategy isn't working.  It's like arguing the Yankees lost because they are down 3-1 in the first inning.  This pandemic is going to play out over a long period of time and the good news for Sweden is that they believe 30% of people in Stockholm have reached a level of immunity to the virus.  They believe the capital could reach herd immunity by as early as next month.  Jan Albert who is a professor at the Department of Microbiology, Tumor and Cell Biology at the Karolinska Institute made some thought provoking comments in the article:

- "It's clear that Sweden had more deaths [than many other European countries] up until now, and that's probably at least in part because we haven't had as strict a lockdown and not a lockdown enforced by law."

- "What's the strategy of the other countries?  It [herd immunity] was already the only thing that will eventually stop this, unless there is a vaccine in time, which is quite unlikely."

- stricter lockdowns "only serve to flatten the curve and flattening the curve doesn't mean that cases disappear -- they are just moved in time."

-"As long as the healthcare system reasonably can cope with and give good care to the ones that need care, it's not clear that having the cases later in time is better."

[SEWIGuy]

I get what Sweden is thinking, but it seems to me that saving lives on the front end in hopes that you have better prevention and treatment options on the back end seems the more humane way to go.

[NWI_Irish96]

I get what Sweden is thinking, but it seems to me that saving lives on the front end in hopes that you have better prevention and treatment options on the back end seems the more humane way to go.

It's easier for Sweden when losing 0.5% of their population amounts to 50,000 people.  When 0.5% of your population amounts to 1.5 million people it's harder to just accept that and not try to stop it.

[J N Winkler]

Speaking of which...  I have a library book that's probably overdue by now.  Do you know how the library is handling this issue?

You can log on to your library account online (default username/password is your card number and last four digits of the telephone number on file; if you haven't already done so, you can configure a custom username) and check.

Due dates that have fallen during the closure period have been extended so that they fall some time after the announced reopening date.  Since we are now closed "until further notice" (none of the previously planned reopening dates--March 27, April 5, April 25, and May 3--having survived contact with reality), the due date currently programmed into the system is May 11, although I suspect that will be extended if we are still closed then.  Bookdrops are being left open, although returned materials are subject to 72-hour quarantine.

I've now started checking out books online.  I had a chance to stock up before the library closed and still have four print books I haven't yet finished, but as they are pretty slow going, I've turned to Andy Weir's The Martian for something light and fun.

[kphoger]

Death rate for Sweden is substantially more out-of-line than confirmed case rate, when compared to its Nordic neighbors.

Current counts below:

Confirmed cases, per 100,000 population
Sweden - 204
Denmak - 157
Norway - 144
Finland - 89

[Max Rockatansky]

Supposedly the governor out here in California is closing the state owned beaches and State Parks some time today.  No real news if that will be mandated for non-state owner park/beach facilities at the moment.  Apparently this is some sort of response to the beaches in Southern California being filled with people last weekend.  The parking lots at State Beaches and Parks have been shuttered for awhile and they were allowing access to those on foot (who were supposed to be local to the area). 

[LM117]

US intelligence says that COVID-19 isn't "manmade or genetically modified", though they're still trying to figure out whether or not it escaped from the virology lab in Wuhan or if it came from contact with infected animals.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-us-intelligence-community-china-odni/

[tradephoric]

Death rate for Sweden is substantially more out-of-line than confirmed case rate, when compared to its Nordic neighbors.

Current counts below:

Confirmed cases, per 100,000 population
Sweden - 204
Denmak - 157
Norway - 144
Finland - 89

Yeah the mortality rate in Sweden is way out of line compared to the other Nordic nations (which simply suggests there is a lack of testing compared to the other nations). I added USA in the mix for comparison sake.

Sweden =12.0% mortality rate (2,274 deaths among 18,926 cases)
Denmark = 4.7% mortality rate (427 deaths among 9,049 cases)
Norway = 2.7% mortality rate (206 deaths among 7,599 cases)
Finland = 4.1% mortality rate (193 deaths among 4,695 cases)
USA = 5.9% (~62,000 deaths among 1 million cases)

Here is the % herd immunity of each Nordic nation (and the USA) assuming a 0.3% fatality rate:
Sweden = 7.4% (758,000 infected among 10.3 million people)
Denmark = 2.4% (142,333 infected among 5.8 million people)
Norway = 1.3% (68,666 infected among 5.4 million people)
Finland = 1.2% (64,333 infected among 5.5 million people)
USA = 6.3% (20.6 million infected among 329 million people)

I'm estimating that 20.6 million Americans (6.3%) have already been infected by coronavirus.  Assuming herd immunity is reached at 63% that would mean roughly 630k people would die before the virus runs its course.  Turns out for every % point of herd immunity needed, it would increase the death toll by about a 1000.   So assuming 80% herd immunity, we could expect to see roughly 800k deaths. 

[kalvado]

US intelligence says that COVID-19 isn't "manmade or genetically modified", though they're still trying to figure out whether or not it escaped from the virology lab in Wuhan or if it came from contact with infected animals.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-us-intelligence-community-china-odni/

I would prefer a better investigation of CDC actions at the beginning of US spread. 

[vdeane]

The Atlantic just did an interesting piece about how coronavirus is changing retail.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-pandemic-will-change-face-retail/610738/

[hbelkins]

I can certainly tell you that for my sake... I will be staying the fuck away from anything that involves people congregating for a while after things start reopening. I'm not going to trust that it's safe just because the government says so - I will want to see the results empirically show this and will be looking hard for any canaries of a possible resurgence.
And I'm not really interested in purchasing any non-essential items or services right now, because while I am still employed currently I'd be foolish to not be preparing for the possibility that that may change.

Conversely, I'm not going to trust that it was ever unsafe because the government said so.

[jakeroot]

I get what Sweden is thinking, but it seems to me that saving lives on the front end in hopes that you have better prevention and treatment options on the back end seems the more humane way to go.

That's what I was thinking. Sweden's route reminds me of Stephen King's the Mist. Spoiler alert: at the end, almost everybody kills themselves because it seems to the only route forward. Right afterwards, the mist clears and the main protagonist is left sitting there covered in the vain blood of his entire family.

If a vaccine comes around after Sweden hits "herd immunity" but before other countries begin to escalate (assuming total deaths will continue to rise in locked-down countries, just slowly), Sweden is gonna look pretty stupid for killing thousands of its own people when a vaccine could minimize or halt further death without tons of death.

[bandit957]

On Tuesday morning, I had to go to the hospital because of a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lungs). This was absolutely caused by the lockdowns.

The lockdowns have very real consequences.

[Roadgeekteen]

On Tuesday morning, I had to go to the hospital because of a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lungs). This was absolutely caused by the lockdowns.

The lockdowns have very real consequences.

How were they caused by the lockdowns?

[bandit957]

On Tuesday morning, I had to go to the hospital because of a cardiac incident and a pulmonary embolism (blood clot in the lungs). This was absolutely caused by the lockdowns.

The lockdowns have very real consequences.

How were they caused by the lockdowns?

I can't handle the stress.

[kphoger]

Conversely, I'm not going to trust that it was ever unsafe because the government said so.

This.

Seeing teen-agers wearing masks to walk their dog down the middle of a quiet residential street is just craziness.

If a vaccine comes around after Sweden hits "herd immunity" but before other countries begin to escalate (assuming total deaths will continue to rise in locked-down countries, just slowly), Sweden is gonna look pretty stupid for killing thousands of its own people when a vaccine could minimize or halt further death without tons of death.

But how likely, really, are we to have a vaccine in that window of time? that is substantially effective? in sufficient quantity to–what–vaccinate the whole world?

[hotdogPi]

But how likely, really, are we to have a vaccine in that window of time? that is substantially effective? in sufficient quantity to–what–vaccinate the whole world?

Just within the last week, doctors found a drug that reduces the death rate. As more drugs get tested, we can choose the best drug (which might be different for different people). If the death rate for those who have COVID-19 decreases by 80% or more, we can let it run its course (like we did with the 2009 swine flu) until we get herd immunity. Sweden and the Netherlands will not get this benefit of a drug reducing the fatality rate if they get most of their cases early.

[kphoger]

Our best friends in Mexico need to make a border run to try and get new FMMs and vehicle permits (which may or may not happen, depending on whether INM is issuing FMMs right now), and they need to drive through the city of Monclova in order to do so;  in Monclova it is now prohibited to walk down the street without having "good reason" to be outside your home, and no more than two people are allowed to be driving in a car at the same time;  hopefully, their family of five isn't detained by the police while driving through town.

I fully realize there might be nobody wondering how this situation played out, but...

Because our friends (a couple with two young daughters) don't have proper visas yet and have been living in Mexico in the meantime on FMMs (commonly called tourist cards), they didn't know if they could even get new papers because of the government and border shutdown.  They had tried calling various government agencies in Mexico to find out, been put on hold, and never gotten an answer (including the INM office in Saltillo and even–I think–the US Consulate's emergency number in Mexico City).  I had then asked around on an expat forum and found out that their papers were set to expire during a window of time that had no solution in place.  If their papers had expired earlier, then there would have been a process to get new ones at any immigration office.  Unfortunately, even though the government shutdown had been extended to the end of May, that process had not been likewise extended.  So, with no answer to the problem, they packed up as if they would have to stay outside of Mexico for an indefinite amount of time, and drove 275 miles north, not knowing if they would be stopped and turned around in Monclova along the way, not knowing what would happen when they got to customs.

It was mid-morning yesterday that they started heading north.  At Castaños (just south of Monclova), the police were stopping traffic but waved our friends on.  They stopped anyway and asked which way they should go to head north of town, and they were directed to take the bypass around the east side of Monclova (an ugly route mainly used by local truckers, but which our friends were already familiar with).  Upon arrival at the customs office near Allende, they found out that they could indeed get new FMMs and vehicle permits, but that they would have to wait till the shift change a few hours later for the FMMs and until after midnight for the vehicle permits.  So they canceled their soon-to-expire papers and laid up for the night at a local hotel, which fortunately had no problem with their dog being in the room.  By around lunchtime today, they had their new FMMs and vehicle permits.  They're currently headed back south, and I estimate they're within 1.5 hours of home.