Coronavirus pandemic

[bandit957]

Pooing is cool.

Is that because it bips?

If poo.

[GaryV]

It sounds like his point is that most people aren't wearing masks outdoors.

Considering that I've been routinely seeing people wearing masks outdoors, that's something worth noting.

Hmm.  We've been told specifically that masks are required for indoor public spaces, but not required outdoor.  I've seen some, but the majority of people out walking are not wearing masks.  Perhaps not as drastic as 79-1, but at least 85-90% are not.

And to your prior post, he said "went out".  That doesn't necessarily mean outside.  For example, "We last went out to eat in February."  But we didn't eat outside.

[SEWIGuy]

I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.

And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.

[kphoger]

Temperature checks strike me as security theater as well.  Not only is there huge variation if you were out in the cold, exercising, etc., but given that a lot (I would guess most) of the spread is from asymptomatic people that wouldn't have fevers, it doesn't seems like there's much point.

They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

Speak for yourself.  My best friends recently had their temperatures taken twice "with Harbor Freight type IR thermometers" (his words) at roadside checkpoints while on a 275-mile drive home.  "Security theater" isn't so entertaining when it's being done on the side of a highway by the military, and being "denied entry to wherever you were trying to get" is a lot more of an interruption when that "wherever" is your home town.

[Brandon]

I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.

And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.

[Max Rockatansky]

I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.

And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.

Come on, even I know that I wasn't even around for MTR. Lol

[SEWIGuy]

I went out earlier and counted people in public spaces. Unmasked people outnumbered masked people 79 to 1.

Indoors or outdoors?

Outdoors.

And your point is?

Pooing is cool.

I just realized your *that* guy.  I remember you from the m.t.r. days.

Come on, even I know that I wasn't even around for MTR. Lol

Well honestly up until pandemic time, I have usually limited myself to the Great Lakes regional board.

[hbelkins]

Other than New York City, has there been any place where the health care system has been overwhelmed? None to my knowledge. The stated reason for all these government-mandated closures was to "flatten the curve" to prevent that from happening. In Kentucky, hospital capacity was never close to being reached. In fact, hospitals are having to furlough or lay off personnel and most of them are empty, so there's plenty of capacity. And two field hospitals were built, one in Lexington and one in Louisville, and neither has seen their first patient. It's not likely that we'll have a second wave (I believe this for a variety of reasons), but we could have a future outbreak 5 to 10 times worse than the current one and the health care system would still not be overburdened.

If you will, fact that containment is successful so far means that those measures work, and nothing else. NYC shows that going into catastrophic mode is very possible, and any further steps have to account for, and avoid as much as possible, that very scenario.

Empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors in Kentucky are proof of neither position.

How many of the empty beds are ICU beds?  A canceled hip replacement surgery leaves a hospital bed empty, but that has nothing to do with how close to capacity the ICU is.  Did a hospital postpone all hysterectomies?  If so, there are some more empty hospital beds that have nothing to do with COVID.  And I assume the furloughed doctors couldn't all be sent over to ICU to treat COVID patients, right?  Can you imagine that many doctors all crammed into one wing of the hospital?  And so a hospital could very well be at capacity for COVID patients while simultaneously having empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors.

My dad suffers from back pain due in part to Parkinson's disease.  He had been, until this past week, unable to get an injection to help with that because the procedure had been deemed "non-essential".  That empty seat in the waiting room, that PA not attending to him while waiting for the doctor, that doctor not seeing him–those are neither evidence of local shutdown measures working effectively nor of their being unnecessary.

About five weeks ago, Wesley Woodlawn Hospital suspended all in-patient services, which created a lot of empty hospital beds.  Such was not an indication that there were hardly any COVID cases in Wichita, because the reason they made that move was to send staff and other resources to a different hospital.  Was that move premature and unnecessary?  Without it, would the health care system in Wichita overrun capacity, or would it have handled the outbreak just fine?  Those are questions that simply cannot be answered by the mere presence of empty hospital beds and furloughed doctors in the city.

Only a small percentage of Kentucky hospitalizations for the virus are requiring use of the ICU. There's no reason other wings of the hospital could not be used for virus patients, or those rooms could be converted to ICU rooms if necessary.

[SectorZ]

Dentists are reopening in MA.

Where did you hear that one? Can't find anything anywhere about that. Ironic timing in that I was supposed to have a routine teeth cleaning tonight. So much for that in the short term...

[NWI_Irish96]

So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.

[kphoger]

June.  Flying

You got me with just those two words.  Ugghhh...

[Roadgeekteen]

So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.

Yeah I'm not so sure, the Massachusetts is only slowly reopening starting in mid May, August could be better but I dunno.

[Scott5114]

Well, the reservations are sort of like countries, and countries have border checkpoints.

An island would be similar. If my town was an island, why wouldn't I want it blocked from the rest of the country during a pandemic? As far as I'm concerned, people could move about the island all they want. But would I want the rest of the country visiting? If a visitor could be quickly tested for coronavirus, I probably wouldn't have a problem though. But I'm not sure if that's doable.

None of the reservations in Oklahoma have checkpoints. I work on the Osage reservation, and I've never heard of checkpoints.

I think the Osage is technically the only reservation in Oklahoma. The Chickasaw Nation refers to its boundaries as a "tribal service area", which just means that certain programs are only available inside that area, and they have exclusivity on casinos in that area (although Stitt signed an agreement with the Comanche that would allow them to open casinos in the Chickasaw area, which I'm sure is going to get litigated). The Chickasaws have opened an area office in Oklahoma City, outside their service area, however, so it's definitely a much more porous border than the traditional-style reservations operated in the West.

[ozarkman417]

Things are finally looking up for me during this time. I can finally test for my driver's license (so long as I wear a mask). I will wait for a time where it isn't going to rain all week.

That rain will hopefully bring up the water on the upper Buffalo Nat'l River, as I am planning a day trip to float on the river (it opens in three days for day-use). This comes as my online school is coming to a close. The district cancelled all finals.

Arkansas is not allowing visitors from COVID-19 hotspots, including New Orleans, New York, and New Jersey.

[Roadgeekteen]

Things are finally looking up for me during this time. I can finally test for my driver's license (so long as I wear a mask). I will wait for a time where it isn't going to rain all week.

That rain will hopefully bring up the water on the upper Buffalo Nat'l River, as I am planning a day trip to float on the river (it opens in three days for day-use). This comes as my online school is coming to a close. The district cancelled all finals.

Arkansas is not allowing visitors from COVID-19 hotspots, including New Orleans, New York, and New Jersey.

Your school closes soon? Lucky, we go till mid June.

[tradephoric]

When Gov. Newsom issued a stay-at-home order on March 19 there were 207 new cases in Los Angeles County.  On May 5th there were 964 new cases.  During the lock down there has been over a 300% increase in daily cases.  Now it's just been announced that L.A. County stay-at-home orders will be extended through July. 


http://dashboard.publichealth.lacounty.gov/covid19_surveillance_dashboard/

California and New York are trending in opposite directions.  California is about to overtake New York in weekly confirmed cases (even with their extended lock down measures, a big outbreak appears to be coming to California).


https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?region=US&doublingtime=3&location=California&location=New+York

[wxfree]

OK, here's per capita, for all European nations with a population of more than 1 million:



Yes, Sweden is higher than its Nordic neighbors on both charts, but it's hardly out of the ballpark in Europe.  I note specifically that the total case rate per capita of Sweden is less than 50% larger than that of Denmark.  And it should be clear to anyone that several countries in Europe took more drastic shutdown measures than Sweden yet have higher case rates and death rates than Sweden.  So let's stop talking about Sweden's plan as if it's an obvious failure.

I look at that from the other direction.  Some places got hit harder than others.  New York City is obvious, because it would have gotten there early, due to the high rates of international travel, before we knew as much about it, and it would have spread very rapidly due to the high density.  By the time they were able to start identifying patients, it was probably already on a trajectory toward an unavoidable disaster.  These factors are probably pretty common in areas with major outbreaks.  (Unless there's something I don't know about Ireland, it seems like that's an outlier.)  That may have had an influence on how bad the rates got because it reduced the effectiveness of the mitigation measures, since the virus was already spread around so much.  To me, it makes sense that the places with the worst outbreaks took the most restrictive measures to slow it down.  I wouldn't see that as meaning the measures were ineffective, but as meaning that they were warranted.  In places with lesser outbreaks and less restrictive measures, that may not be success as much as their societies having less viral characteristics, such as less travel and lower density (and maybe even a higher degree of a sense of societal responsibility, where they don't rush in and crowd places just because those places are open and then bitch and moan about personal freedoms when asked to be respectful of the safety of others).

[vdeane]

So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.

Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown).  Only three regions have been cleared so far to begin Phase 1, and those regions may be able to shift to phase 2 at the end of the month if things don't worsen.  Phase 3 would begin at least two weeks after that.

The Capital Region is still waiting for its death count to decline more (personally, I'm not really sure why that's a metric, since it lags new infections by 6-8 weeks, but that's what they're using), and NYC and the Mid-Hudson regions are still hot spots, so even phase 1 by the end of the month may be optimistic.  I don't know how MA is doing, but last I heard, Boston was a hot spot.

Everything you could want to know about NY's reopening plan and how the regions are doing is here: https://forward.ny.gov/

[oscar]

So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.

Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown). 

Weren't hotels/motels allowed to remain open, at least for truckers transporting food and other essential goods, and other essential personnel?

Good to make reservations (not just in NY) before you need to decide on rescheduling, just to be sure.

Also make sure you won't be put into quarantine when you get back home.

[Max Rockatansky]

Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July. 

[Max Rockatansky]

Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Park seems to be hinting reopening might come post Memorial Day:

https://www.nps.gov/seki/planyourvisit/conditions.htm

[ftballfan]

So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.

Yeah, I'd reschedule.  I can tell you right now that June is basically off the table for the NY portions, especially downstate.  Last I heard, hotels reopen in phase 3 (though they're not mentioned on the industry breakdown).  Only three regions have been cleared so far to begin Phase 1, and those regions may be able to shift to phase 2 at the end of the month if things don't worsen.  Phase 3 would begin at least two weeks after that.

The Capital Region is still waiting for its death count to decline more (personally, I'm not really sure why that's a metric, since it lags new infections by 6-8 weeks, but that's what they're using), and NYC and the Mid-Hudson regions are still hot spots, so even phase 1 by the end of the month may be optimistic.  I don't know how MA is doing, but last I heard, Boston was a hot spot.

Everything you could want to know about NY's reopening plan and how the regions are doing is here: https://forward.ny.gov/

In the NY Forward link, are the regions in yellow the ones that will be Phase I beginning this weekend?

Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Park seems to be hinting reopening might come post Memorial Day:

https://www.nps.gov/seki/planyourvisit/conditions.htm

Speaking of national parks, Isle Royale is closed until June 15 while Pictured Rocks is in limited operations until June 26. Sleeping Bear is closed until July 1, but there is a chance some parts might open before then. These closures (and the length of them) may have more to do with staffing issues and pre-season cleanup than with COVID itself.

[Tonytone]

Glimmer of a chance now that I won't be detailing my cars again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-california-offices-can-reopen-with-modifications-malls-can-offer-curbside-pickup.html

Assuming Fresno gets on board with car washes being open.  Lots of more mainstream things like offices and dine-in restaurants can begin moving forward if local authorities agree.  I'm sure glad I flatly said "no"  to Los Angeles County when I was asked about a transfer back in February.  I didn't want to go back on the basis of already working their twice, now lock down is apparently going at least through July.

Sorry to veer off the highway for a sec. but how is working/living in La? Is it the same living in all states in the west coast. Ie: like Texas or Nevada.


iPhone

[NWI_Irish96]

So we have a family vacation planned for the second week of June.  Flying to Boston, with 3 nights in Boston, one in Albany, and two in NYC.  Anybody from MA or NY with a sense of whether or not tourism will be welcomed by then?

We can reschedule this to as late as the first week in August but if we can't do the trip by then it isn't happening.

Yeah I'm not so sure, the Massachusetts is only slowly reopening starting in mid May, August could be better but I dunno.

We rescheduled to August.  Boston hotel is in Medford.

[Duke87]

Of the 3 main data points that New York State officials have shared (deaths, mortality rate, antibody results) two are relatively easy to verify (deaths & mortality rate).  That really puts the antibody testing into question.  If officials say that 20% of the population have antibodies when the other data points suggest that number has to be closer to 60%.  Am i missing something here?  This is my math.

(Deaths / Mortality) / Population = % antibodies

Where:
Deaths = 25,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm)
Mortality = 0.5% (https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html)
Population = 8,400,000

(25,000 / 0.005) / 8,400,000 = 59.5% antibodies

So, a couple things you're missing here.

One is that the official count of confirmed covid deaths in New York City is, as of today, only 14,800. This is based purely on how many people have died after having tested positive. The 25,000 figure in your first cite is an inferred estimate of the "true" death count in NYC which is based on looking at the total number of people that have died in the past couple months and comparing that number to the same period in prior years. The mortality estimates put forth by Cuomo are based on the number of confirmed deaths, not on any estimates of the true number.

Another is that the 0.5% mortality rate figure was based on statewide antibody test results. Within NYC specifically the number was actually stated to be higher - about 0.9%. It has been posited that the true mortality rate may, in fact, be higher in dense cities, because living in closer quarters with more people increases your exposure and makes more severe cases more likely.

Anyway with these caveats in mind the numbers add up: (14,800 / 0.009) / 8,400,000 = 19.6% antibodies, which is about what the first round of testing said. Subsequent testing put the number closer to 25%, which lowers the resulting mortality rate.

Nonetheless, I would expect that these antibody testing results are overestimates of true disease prevalence due to sampling bias. They obtained samples by pulling people aside at random at grocery stores. This means they're testing the prevalence among people who are going out and shopping, which for obvious reasons is likely to be higher than among people who are staying home and having their groceries delivered or sending another member of their household out for them.

They're security theater if they're done as a standalone measure, and all that happens if you have a fever is you get denied entry to wherever you were trying to get into. But that isn't (or shouldn't be) the intent.

Speak for yourself.  My best friends recently had their temperatures taken twice "with Harbor Freight type IR thermometers" (his words) at roadside checkpoints while on a 275-mile drive home.  "Security theater" isn't so entertaining when it's being done on the side of a highway by the military, and being "denied entry to wherever you were trying to get" is a lot more of an interruption when that "wherever" is your home town.

So... the term "security theater" doesn't imply it is entertaining to anyone. It describes procedures which look tough and intimidating, but don't do much to improve actual safety.

If someone fails a temperature check and all you do is turn them around, they remain free to potentially keep infecting others elsewhere, and you thus have merely redirected the problem rather than actually addressing it. Hence, security theater - looks tough (and yes, can in some cases massively inconvenience people subject to it), but doesn't really protect people.